Article: Player Predictions: 2B Brian Dozier

[Seth Stohs]

As we continue to work our way around the diamond, today we arrive at second base where Brian Dozier has played for the Twins the last three seasons. After being selected by Jose Bautista for the 2014 Home Run Derby at Target Field, he was named an all-star in 2015. He even got into the game and homered off of NL saves leader Mark Melancon.

 

In 2015, the Minnesota Twins second basemen were 25th in MLB in batting average (.237) and 18th in on-base percentage (.308), but 2nd in slugging percentage (.447) and 6th in OPS (.755). Twins second basemen scored more runs (105) than second basemen from other teams. The 29 home runs that the Twins got from second base were eight more than any other organization.Obviously Brian Dozier accounted for most of the production. The 28-year-old played in 157 games and hit .236/.307/.444 (.751) with 28 home runs, 101 runs scored and 77 RBI. He also had career-highs in hits, doubles, triples, home runs and RBIs.

 

It is also well documented that Dozier has been much better before the All-Star break than after it the last couple of years. In 2015, he hit .256/.328/.513 (.841) in the first 88 games of the season. In 69 games after the All-Star break, he hit .210/.280/.359 (.639). As Nick wrote yesterday, Dozier doesn’t see it as a big deal. He said there are other ways to help the team win and that’s what’s important to him.

 

Dozier will take on more of a leadership role in the clubhouse in 2016 after learning a lot from Torii Hunter a year ago.

 

While Jorge Polanco waits in the wings for an opportunity at any of the infield positions, pending good health Dozier will get at least 95% of the starts at second base again in 2016. He’s having another terrific spring training and hopes to build on his all-star performance in 2015.

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

148 - Along with his other career-high stats in 2015, Dozier also set the Minnesota Twins record with 148 strikeouts, topping Bobby Darwin’s 145 strikeouts in 1972. Nick’s article also talked about Dozier working with Brunansky on covering the whole plate, maybe fouling off more two-strike pitches or possibly slapping some singles to the opposite field.

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Brian Dozier: 596 At-bats, .255/.342/.457 (.799), 35 doubles, two triples, 26 home runs.

 

I think that we will see Dozier be more consistent throughout the entire season. If he can put up his first half numbers all season, he will easily be the top second baseman in baseball, and likely receive a lot of MVP votes. Possible? Sure. I think Dozier, the Twins, and Twins fans will be happy with him being really good for two halves.

 

YOUR TURN

 

Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on Brian Dozier in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

 

Click here to view the article

[alarp33]

I'm hopeful the OBP will bounceback, not as confident that the Home run numbers are going to stay that high. 

 

.250/.320/.420  Somewhere around 20 home runs, give or take a couple in either direction.   

[Blake]

.285 batting average with 23 home runs. (starts going the other way more at the expense of power)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm hopeful the OBP will bounceback, not as confident that the Home run numbers are going to stay that high. 

 

.250/.320/.420  Somewhere around 20 home runs, give or take a couple in either direction.   

 

I'd go with this, with the OBP closer to 305 or so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Dozier will fade in the second half again but probably not as badly as he did last season. The first half of his season won't be as good as last season, either...

 

Basically, more of the same from Dozier. A .750-.770 OPS, good defense, and a very good overall player.

[Vanimal46]

^^ This. ^^

[Thrylos]

 

.240/.300/.425, which is about what he did last season.

[tobi0040]

 

I think Dozier will fade in the second half again but probably not as badly as he did last season. The first half of his season won't be as good as last season, either...

 

Basically, more of the same from Dozier. A .750-.770 OPS, good defense, and a very good overall player.

 

 I would agree, maybe a band of .735 to .770.  Most of that OPS based on slugging, with 22-28 HR and a bunch of doubles.

Edited March 23, 2016 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seth, I am noticing a trend in your predictions so far.

 

Murphy: you predict a career high OPS

Suzuki: you predict a +.044 OPS bounceback

Mauer: you predict a big +.071 OPS bounceback

Dozier: you predict a career high OPS (by +.037 over 2014, and +.048 over last year)

 

At this rate, do you realize you might be "predicting" the Twins to have the best record in baseball?

Edited March 23, 2016 by spycake

[alarp33]

 

Seth, I am noticing a trend in your predictions so far.

 

Murphy: you predict a career high OPS

Suzuki: you predict a +.044 OPS bounceback

Mauer: you predict a big +.071 OPS bounceback

Dozier: you predict a career high OPS (by +.037 over 2014, and +.048 over last year)

 

At this rate, do you realize you might be "predicting" the Twins to have the best record in baseball?

 

Haha I was waiting for a couple more to come out to give Seth the option of choosing over/ under on 1,000 runs scored for the Twins. 

[REPETE]

 

Seth, I am noticing a trend in your predictions so far.

 

Murphy: you predict a career high OPS

Suzuki: you predict a +.044 OPS bounceback

Mauer: you predict a big +.071 OPS bounceback

Dozier: you predict a career high OPS (by +.037 over 2014, and +.048 over last year)

 

At this rate, do you realize you might be "predicting" the Twins to have the best record in baseball?

dare we say...  "WORLD SERIES!!!"

[Loosey]

My prediction based on the few at bats I've seen him take this spring is he will try to become a more complete hitter.  That means using the opposite field, which will probably mean a slight dip in power numbers but uptick in OBP and BA.

 

.276/.334/.435  18 HR's 35 doubles.

 

[Wookiee of the Year]

It's always easier to predict bounceback years for home team players after an off-year, and that career years for home team players will repeat.

 

I'm going to predict we've seen the best of Brian Dozier, though I sure hope I'm wrong. What if the second half Dozier is closer to the Dozier we see going forward?

 

I'll toss out:

.230/.295/.370 (.665)

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think he finishes the year with an OPS slightly north of .800.