Article: Player Projections: 1B Joe Mauer

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday, I posted my projections for the 2016 Minnesota Twins catchers, Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy. Today, we move to first base where Joe Mauer will again be the primary option. Byung Ho Park will also get some time at first base, though he’ll be the designated hitter most days. We’ll post his projections later.

 

In his third season back from a concussion, what do we expect from Joe Mauer in 2016?In 2015, the Minnesota Twins first basemen were 14th in MLB in batting average (.265), 14th in on-base percentage (.334), 28th in slugging percentage (.392) and 25th in OPS (.726). While Joe Mauer played a career-high 158 games, it was the least productive offensive season of his career.

 

On August 19th, 2013, Joe Mauer was hitting .324/.404/.476 (.880). He was on a 7-game hitting streak during which he had 14 hits and reached base 16 times. And that’s when he took the foul tips off the face mask and his season ended. It’s been clear ever since that things have not been clear for Mauer. That includes his vision which he admitted last month has been off at times. Not that the news was surprising, that’s ‘normal’ with a concussion, but it was the first time that Mauer had really acknowledged it publicly.

 

Consider Justin Morneau’s concussion. It was midseason 2010 when he slid into second in Toronto and John McDonald’s knee impacted Morneau’s head. Morneau missed the rest of that season and half of the 2011 season when he posted a .618 OPS. In 2012, he hit .265 (.773 OPS). In 2013, he hit .259 (.734 OPS). Then he went to Colorado and won a batting title. In 2014, he hit .319 with an .860 OPS). In 2015, he was limited to just 49 games with another concussion, but he was hitting .310 at the time.

 

Denard Span was hitting .294/.361/.385 when he had his concussion. After missing two months, he returned and went 2-35, dropping his numbers to .263/.331/.342. It took him two years to get back to “normal” but he has hit over .300 the last two years and his strikeout to walk ratio has been more like his pre-concussion days.

 

Obviously those are two examples of players who came back strong three years after their concussions, but there is no magic formula when it comes to predicting anything about brain injuries.

 

Mauer is now entering his 13th big league season with the Twins. He will turn 33 years old in a month. Ten of those seasons were as a potential Hall of Fame catcher, and the last two have been at first base. He is entering his third season after the concussion, so there is reason to believe that he can be better again in 2016.

 

Or maybe that is me just being optimistic.

 

With Byung Ho Park around, Mauer should be able to get a game or two a week at DH. We know that Mauer wants to play as often as possible, but 158 games from last year may have been too much. An occasional day off might be beneficial. Kennys Vargas is the backup option for first base and designated hitter. He’ll need to just play in Rochester and wait for an opportunity.

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

1 - .394 and .338 - Mauer’s career on-base percentage dropped to .394 after his career-low .338 OBP in 2015.

 

2 - The place that he should hit in the Minnesota Twins lineup: There is no reason for Mauer to be hitting third in the lineup anymore. That said, the .338 on-base percentage was second to only Miguel Sano on the Twins roster in 2015. He is still an ideal top-of-the-order hitter because of his ability to get on base and take quality at bats.

 

PROJECTIONS

 

Joe Mauer: 557 At-bats, .294/.363/.426 (.789), 33 doubles, one triple, 13 home runs.

 

I don’t think it’s fair to think that Mauer, at 33, will get back to what he was pre-concussion. He’s three years older and still has all those innings behind the plate on his legs. Also, offensive production across baseball has tumbled in the last few seasons. But, the further out from the concussion he is, the more likely he is to perform well.

 

YOUR TURN

Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on Joe Mauer in 2016.

 

Click here to view the article

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'll repeat markos' exercise from the catcher projection comments.

 

ZIPS

.276/.356/.387 (.742)

 

Steamer

.274/.355/.390 (.745)

 

Marcel

.274/.349/.400 (.748)

 

I don't have access to BP's PECOTA projection, unfortunately.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, for fun, I googled your projections for last year.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/2015-projections-and-rankings-joe-mauer-r3495

 

So what are we projecting from Joe Mauer in 2015?

The projections of our Twins Daily writers:

Seth – .296/.371/.428 (.799) with 37 doubles and 8 HR.
Nick – .315/.410/.445 (.855) with 40 doubles and 10 HR.
Parker –
John – .300/.380/.400 (780 OPS) with 35 doubles, and 8 HR.

By "The Price Is Right" rules, I think Parker won.

Edited March 22, 2016 by spycake

[puckstopper1]

Unfortunately I predict that Joe will lead the league in taking first pitch strikes.  He'll also rank high in GIDP, and be near the top of "things that should be changed on the Twins" discussions on the site.

[Tommygun921]

Who would be the leading candidate to play first if Mauer had a DL stint? Park? Or would it be Kepler, Sano, Plouffee?

 

I'll go with .290 .365 .420. 35 doubles 12 HR.

[TRex]

 

Also, for fun, I googled your projections for last year.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/2015-projections-and-rankings-joe-mauer-r3495

 

By "The Price Is Right" rules, I think Parker won.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

[markos]

 

I'll repeat markos' exercise from the catcher projection comments.

 

ZIPS

.276/.356/.387 (.742)

 

Steamer

.274/.355/.390 (.745)

 

Marcel

.274/.349/.400 (.748)

 

I don't have access to BP's PECOTA projection, unfortunately.

You beat me to it.

 

Here is PECOTA:

.279/.360/.387 (.747)

 

I think Seth is a little optimistic (surprise, surprise), but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. It wouldn't take much (maybe a .340 BABIP instead of a .320) for Mauer to reach Seth's .790 OPS projection. I would definitely take the OVER on his .718 OPS from last year, and ... maybe... take the OVER on the ~.745 OPS from the projection systems. But the UNDER on Seth's .790.

 

Regardless, if Mauer can keep his OBP above .330, he should still hit near the top of the lineup. Is it crazy to think he might be the best leadoff guy on the team? 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'll repeat markos' exercise from the catcher projection comments.

 

ZIPS

.276/.356/.387 (.742)

 

Steamer

.274/.355/.390 (.745)

 

Marcel

.274/.349/.400 (.748)

 

I don't have access to BP's PECOTA projection, unfortunately.

 

Yup, so the difference really is 0.020 points of batting average which moves the OPS up by 0.040. I think that's about one single ever 3 weeks difference.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Who would be the leading candidate to play first if Mauer had a DL stint? Park? Or would it be Kepler, Sano, Plouffee?

I'll go with .290 .365 .420. 35 doubles 12 HR.

 

My initial thought was that Park would play 1B with Vargas at DH, but since Kepler is still in camp, I could see Kepler getting the nod at 1B with Park staying at DH. That's if it was at the very start of the season. Either of those two would work.

[alarp33]

 

My initial thought was that Park would play 1B with Vargas at DH, but since Kepler is still in camp, I could see Kepler getting the nod at 1B with Park staying at DH. That's if it was at the very start of the season. Either of those two would work.

 

I'll take option 2.  I'd also prefer Arcia at DH over Vargas

[Vanimal46]

I hope they slide Mauer into the #2 slot in the batting order. Makes a lot of sense to get him out of the #3 slot and insert Park or Sano there instead. 

13 HR is an optimistic projection. If he can match last year's total of 10 I will be happy. 

I'll go .275 BA and .750 OPS. 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, you are tracking right with Fangraphs in terms of timing of posts, nice job. They project the Twins to be exactly median/average among 1B, with Mauer regressing closer to his good years, but not all the way back obviously. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-first-base/

 

I think median is about right, frankly, for the Twins at 1B.

 

As for if Mauer is bad/benched/hurt.......I've said all along that Kepler will be the 1B here eventually. Admittedly, that's when Hicks was here, and I thought Arcia would hit, so they do have less OF youth now.......but then, I didn't expect Sano to be moved there. Frankly, if Kepler were on the bench as your OF backup, 1B backup, and DH backup at some point this year, I'd be good with that.

 

I think Park should be the backup for now, though, with Kepler getting a month or so in AAA (and if he's then good, replacing one of the not so good bench players).

[HitInAPinch]

Mauer's comeback year!!

[EddieMatthews]

If there is an "over/under" on the Mauer prediction, I'll take the "under".  Hope the shades help his daytime hitting, but obviously there are still a lot of variables in play before Joe gets back to his former self.  Even so, he will be one of the more productive hitters on this team in 2016.

[tobi0040]

 

I hope they slide Mauer into the #2 slot in the batting order. Makes a lot of sense to get him out of the #3 slot and insert Park or Sano there instead. 

13 HR is an optimistic projection. If he can match last year's total of 10 I will be happy. 

I'll go .275 BA and .750 OPS. 

 

Unfortunately this has been a no brainer for a few years now and he has stil hit #3.

 

If he can get in the .750 range it would be a long way in helping out the lineup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Denard Span was hitting .294/.361/.385 when he had his concussion. After missing two months, he returned and went 2-35, dropping his numbers to .263/.331/.342. It took him two years to get back to “normal” but he has hit over .300 the last two years and his strikeout to walk ratio has been more like his pre-concussion days.

Obviously those are two examples of players who came back strong three years after their concussions, but there is no magic formula when it comes to predicting anything about brain injuries.

There is zero statistical evidence that Span's concussion affected his long-term performance at all.

 

His 2011 wRC+ when he suffered the concussion (two months): 108

His 2012 wRC+ (full season): 104

 

His wRC+ from April 2010 through June 2011 (8 months prior to the concussion): 93

His wRC+ from August 2011 through September 2012 (8 months after the concussion): 95

His first season in Washington: 96

 

Morneau's effects are obviously much clearer, although it's not at all clear that he "came back strong three years after" -- it could be he was the same physically in 2014 as he was in 2012 (his first full year back) but had simply made further adjustments/refinements to his game in 2014 (aided by a new home park too).  Which is something that applies to lots of players at that stage of their career (age 33 season) regardless of concussion status.  Of course, Mauer could make adjustments now too, but the point is, it's not as simple as time removed from the injury.

[Dantes929]

Even in his best year he probably should have been batting 2nd because guys weren't getting on base in front of him anyway.     Now its a no brainer.   The lineup still looks better with him in it.     A large part of this is OBP.   Even in his worst year he was 2nd on the team at getting on base.   Sure seemed like a lot of home runs by Sano were with Mauer aboard.    I expect him to have better OBP than last year.    I'm not betting anything so I will go ahead and predict another batting title.

[Vanimal46]

 

Unfortunately this has been a no brainer for a few years now and he has stil hit #3.

 

If he can get in the .750 range it would be a long way in helping out the lineup.

I don't know if there was an obvious choice to take his place a couple of years ago was there? I guess Dozier had his breakout season in 2014.. My memory is fuzzy, and I can't recall others that could have made the move to #3. 

This year should be a no-brainer now that Sano is establishing himself, and Park so far seems to be able to hit MLB pitching. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

There is zero statistical evidence that Span's concussion affected his long-term performance at all.

 

His 2011 wRC+ when he suffered the concussion (two months): 108

His 2012 wRC+ (full season): 104

 

His wRC+ from April 2010 through June 2011 (8 months prior to the concussion): 93

His wRC+ from August 2011 through September 2012 (8 months after the concussion): 95

His first season in Washington: 96

 

Morneau's effects are obviously much clearer, although it's not at all clear that he "came back strong three years after" -- it could be he was the same physically in 2014 as he was in 2012 (his first full year back) but had simply made further adjustments/refinements to his game in 2014 (aided by a new home park too).  Which is something that applies to lots of players at that stage of their career (age 33 season) regardless of concussion status.  Of course, Mauer could make adjustments now too, but the point is, it's not as simple as time removed from the injury.

 

But it's all part of it, and the biggest thing to note is that is does affect everyone differently, so there is no way to know how anyone will recover, if or when.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yup, so the difference really is 0.020 points of batting average which moves the OPS up by 0.040. I think that's about one single ever 3 weeks difference.

But that argument could go either way.  Starting with those ~.745 OPS projections, if he lost one single every three weeks, he'd be right back at last year's .718 OPS.

 

And if one bought ~.745 OPS as being roughly his "true talent" level right now, you'd have to conclude he was a little unlucky last year (-.040 OPS), but that wouldn't mean you'd project him to get a little lucky (+.040 OPS) this year.  You should project to neutral luck.  A true talent .250 hitter that goes 0-4 one game shouldn't get projected to go 2-4 the next.

[Seth Stohs]

 

But that argument could go either way.  Starting with those ~.745 OPS projections, if he lost one single every three weeks, he'd be right back at last year's .718 OPS.

 

And if one bought ~.745 OPS as being roughly his "true talent" level right now, you'd have to conclude he was a little unlucky last year (-.040 OPS), but that wouldn't mean you'd project him to get a little lucky (+.040 OPS) this year.  You should project to neutral luck.  A true talent .250 hitter that goes 0-4 one game shouldn't get projected to go 2-4 the next.

 

Yup, and that's why it's called a prediction. There's no way to know. There's no science to guessing the future of a person. They're guesses based on looking at numbers, talking to the person, the people around him, looking at other factors and then guessing. 

[USAFChief]

What a sad, sad place we've arrived at when a predicted .789 OPS for our $23M first baseman is (fairly) seen as optimistic.

[Loosey]

Call me crazy but I think Joe transforms himself into a traditional 1st baseman this year.  I think the batting average will stay below .300 but something will click powerwise due to all of the other power hitters in the line as well as protection behind him with Sano, Park, Plouffe, etc.

 

Prediction:  .279/.340/.433     28 doubles 20 HR.

 

Not the Joe of old, but a top flight baseman in my opinion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

the biggest thing to note is that is does affect everyone differently, so there is no way to know how anyone will recover, if or when.

I'll agree with that.  But that means it's mostly junk science to try to predict, especially based on a sample size of two, and especially when you are stretching the legitimacy of one of those samples (Span).  I wouldn't project Mauer to improve in 2016 because Morneau improved in 2014, so it's pretty much not relevant.

 

Now, if you look at how Morneau improved in 2014, he posted a career low strikeout rate and the highest full season BABIP of his career.  That's a lot more than just time elapsed since the concussion, and it's rather tough to do.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't know if there was an obvious choice to take his place a couple of years ago was there? I guess Dozier had his breakout season in 2014.. My memory is fuzzy, and I can't recall others that could have made the move to #3. 

This year should be a no-brainer now that Sano is establishing himself, and Park so far seems to be able to hit MLB pitching. 

 

I am a believer that you put your best hitter #3.  That is Sano.  But even if you put Sano #4, Mauer was 8th in OPS and 9th in slugging last year, but 2nd in OBP (behind Sano).  So if he is in the .750 range he is in the middle of the pack from where a lot of guys were last year but skews higher on the OBP side, I put him #2.  If he hits like last year he should not be near the top of the order at all.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Call me crazy but I think Joe transforms himself into a traditional 1st baseman this year.  I think the batting average will stay below .300 but something will click powerwise due to all of the other power hitters in the line as well as protection behind him with Sano, Park, Plouffe, etc.

 

Prediction:  .279/.340/.433     28 doubles 20 HR.

 

Not the Joe of old, but a top flight baseman in my opinion.

 

Wow, um, wow. That would be shocking. I see about a 1% chance of that, if that high.

[DocBauer]

What a difference a more productive Mauer could make, hitting 2nd or 3rd, and there are reasons for both. (Even 5th in certain scenarios makes sense-contact, OB, line drive power and RISP AVG) I think it's beyond optomistic to believe we'll ever see the Mauer of old. But what a help he brings to the lineup as a quality LHP bat who can get on base, show some pop, and just give the lineup depth and options, wherever he is placed.

 

As I have stated before, this is a huge year for Mauer. Every player/human body functions differently. This includes dealing with, hopefully recovering from, concussions. However, I think it is reasonable to recognize/assume a 2 year pattern for recovery. If not, I think it would, unfortunately, signal that he simply never will recover anything resembling his past self.

 

Saying that he will, based on roughly 150 games again as a 1B/DH: .288 AVG/ .368 OB%/ 35 Dbls/ 12 HR.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'll agree with that.  But that means it's mostly junk science to try to predict, especially based on a sample size of two, and especially when you are stretching the legitimacy of one of those samples (Span).  I wouldn't project Mauer to improve in 2016 because Morneau improved in 2014, so it's pretty much not relevant.

 

Now, if you look at how Morneau improved in 2014, he posted a career low strikeout rate and the highest full season BABIP of his career.  That's a lot more than just time elapsed since the concussion, and it's rather tough to do.

 

It was two situations that Twins fans are familiar with. There are obviously many more samples, but that would make a much, much longer article and it won't help or hurt make any point because they're all different. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Wow, um, wow. That would be shocking. I see about a 1% chance of that, if that high.

 

Maybe, but I think others should make their predictions as well, and we can check them all at the end of the year. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't pretend to know what he'll do, but I think projecting him to be about league median, whatever those numbers are, sounds about right.

 

Above average OBP for a 1B, below average HR for a 1B, maybe a few more doubles but close to league average for a 1B.

 

I find it hard to believe he'll hit the most HR of his entire career this year, though.