Article: Trevor May Headed To The Bullpen

[Jham]

 

I think that's pretty unlikely. If May pitches well the argument becomes "he's too good to move back!" If he struggles it becomes "well if he can't hack the pen....."

Guys just don't flip back and forth much, this likely is the end of the line for one of our higher upside SPs.

 

One of higher upside SP?  

Santana: RotoWire News: "hitting 94-95 MPH on the radar gun, MLB.com reports. (3/6/2016)." ERA of 4.00 last season and 3.95 the season before.

Hughes: RotoWire News: Hughes reported to spring training 15 to 18 pounds lighter (2/23/2016).  27-19 as a Twins starter.

Gibson: peaked 34 on BBA's top 100 prospect list, 3 appearances, May made 1 list (68) as a Philly.

You can make an argument for Duffey having more upside based on his success.

I'll concede Nolasco and Millone on upside, but would not bet on May having a better season as a starter than both of them.  But then I'm going to expect you to concede upside on Tyler Jay, Berrios, and Kohl Stewart.  I'll even give you Gonsalves and Thorpe, who are a ways away, and Alex Meyer who seems unlikely to make his lofty potential.  

If he never starts again because he's too successful as a reliever, that isn't such a bad thing.  We have plenty of comparable arms, imo, especially this year.

 

[LaBombo]

 

Yes, this exact bullish belief.  Go ahead and look at May's season through whatever tinted glass you want.  I merely point out that the results are decidedly mixed, and the numbers you love and base your "settled science" upon were likely too good to be true, and I'm the bad guy.

Starters, in general, are more valuable than relievers. They pitch way more innings.  But this premise is flawed because it assumes relief pitchers and starters would be equally effective in either role.  I would argue that 3.00 xFIP May out of the pen could be more valuable than 4.00 xFIP May the starter, and that's without factoring in a likely regression this year.  If you think May has turned some magical corner and that he can go from a guy who struggled throwing strikes to minor leaguers, to a guy with pinpoint control plus in the zone command, that's fine.  I like optimism.  But don't ignore the indicators that paint a different picture, and don't call your opinion settled science.  And don't use his history as an effective minor league starter to support the notion that he's a good major league starter without acknowledging that he has struggled with command his entire minor league career as well.

I'm going to post the link to this article one more time, because it gives a fair and balanced assessment of reasons to be hopeful that May can maintain his form from last year, as well as explaining the reasons we should be skeptical.  I know it's hard to take seriously when May credits Rick Anderson for his improved command, but it actually is a good read.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/12/10962680/trevor-may-twins-walk-rate-control-command
 

 

Let's start with my use of the phrase "settled science", which was (no, not 'was intended as') a jab at the absurdity of treating May's 30 strong innings of mostly low-leverage relief work as a prophecy of his likely future late-inning bullpen brilliance whilst simultaneously decrying his 83 innings of success in the rotation as a small-sample fluke.  I did not claim or even imply that anything about May's future potential as a starter is "settled science", so let's put that argument to bed.

 

While you're at it make room next to it for the straw man argument that May would pitch at the same level in the rotation this year and beyond as he did in his minuscule body of bullpen work last season.  Didn't say that, didn't imply it.

 

But since you brought it up, even allowing for a difference using your hypothetical 4.00 xFIP starter/ 3.00 xFIP reliever comparison of relative value, May the reliever would be very hard pressed to even approach, let alone exceed, the value of May the starter.  Maybe if Perkins and/or Jepsen are hurt/ineffective most of the year, May is closer or setup man all season, and his FIP substantially outperforms his 2015 xFIP.  Maybe.

 

And you're welcome to portray as ridiculous and unicornish the notion of May pitching as a starter in 2016 at a level approximating his 2015 starts.  But you'll have to do better than just asserting a high probability of regression despite citing only his walk rate as a likely cause.

 

Most of May's other 2015 peripherals as a starter look sustainable, with the notable exception of BAPIP.  He's probably not going to give up hits on 7 out of every 20 balls in play again this year, even if Sano's outfield adventures make Arcia look like Willie Mays. If May's .340 BABIP declines just a small amount, to a still lofty .315, it would almost exactly offset a walk rate increase of an additional BB per 9 IP, and would result in a net improvement in terms of runs allowed.

 

 

Despite what you think, I'm very aware that May's control has been an issue in the minors.  And I'm guessing the Twins were aware too, and yet they traded for him even though they hate pitcher walks the way cats hate baths.  That's probably because they know it's more common for power pitchers to develop control than for finesse pitchers to learn how to miss bats.

 

Also, while we're on the subject of ignoring certain aspects of minor league stats, you've made no mention of the fact that May cut his minor league walk rate by about .5BB/9 in both 2013 and 2014.  So while his dramatically improved 2015 walk rate obviously wasn't explained entirely by natural progression (which, again, nobody was saying), it also wasn't a bolt of outlier lightning from a clear blue stat sheet.

 

Oh, crap.  I've just now seen your post regarding the dozens of Twins pitchers who you feel have higher upside than May.  So it appears that either your posts in this thread were a brilliant, Onion-style parody, or else you just hate Trevor May with a passion.  Either way, thanks for your kind attention, and I'm sorry if I wasted your time.

 

[dxpavelka]

May's 2015, and, I suspect, 2016, remind me a lot of 2001-2002 Johan Santana:  He spends half his time in the bullpen and at the end of the season you look up and realize that we don't have a better starter. 

[tobi0040]

 

May's 2015, and, I suspect, 2016, remind me a lot of 2001-2002 Johan Santana:  He spends half his time in the bullpen and at the end of the season you look up and realize that we don't have a better starter. 

 

I am going off memory here, but wasn't there a arbitration or control issue with Johan? I thought we were keeping him in the pen to garner additional control.  That the cut off back then had an innings component to it.

 

I just tried looking on the google with no avail.  I am probably not remembering this right.

Edited March 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am going off memory here, but wasn't there a arbitration or control issue with Johan? I thought we were keeping him in the pen to garner additional control.  That the cut off back then had an innings component to it.

 

I just tried looking on the google with no avail.  I am probably not remembering this right.

No, arbitration has always been based on service time.

 

There was an argument for controlling Johan's innings, based on his Rule 5 bullpen duty in 2000 and his injury shortened 2001.  But nothing service-time based.

[tobi0040]

 

No, arbitration has always been based on service time.

 

There was an argument for controlling Johan's innings, based on his Rule 5 bullpen duty in 2000 and his injury shortened 2001.  But nothing service-time based.

 

The troubling thing here is you have a guy that is arguably a top two or three pitcher in franchise history, who made 13 relief appearances in 2002 and 27 in 2003, while less talented veterans like Mays, Milton, and Rick Reed were in the rotation. 

 

In 2002, Mays and Milton had ERA's of 5.38 and 4.84.  In 2003, Reed was at 5.07 and Mays was at 6.30.

Edited March 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The troubling thing here is you have a guy that is arguably a top two or three pitcher in franchise history, who made 13 relief appearances in 2002 and 27 in 2003, while less talented veterans like Mays, Milton, and Rick Reed were in the rotation. 

 

In 2002, Mays and Milton had ERA's of 5.38 and 4.84.  In 2003, Reed was at 5.07 and Mays was at 6.30.

I actually thought the innings progression was fair with Santana.  Maybe they were about a month late making the change in 2003.  In 2002, he was fairly still fairly wild yet, so I suppose you could justify putting him in the pen for the playoffs (and the guy he would have replaced on performance, Joe Mays, did pretty well that postseason).

 

Although as history shows us, when you have a chance to deploy a dynamic SP in the playoffs, it's probably not worth passing up.

[tobi0040]

 

I actually thought the innings progression was fair with Santana.  Maybe they were about a month late making the change in 2003.  In 2002, he was fairly still fairly wild yet, so I suppose you could justify putting him in the pen for the playoffs (and the guy he would have replaced on performance, Joe Mays, did pretty well that postseason).

 

Although as history shows us, when you have a chance to deploy a dynamic SP in the playoffs, it's probably not worth passing up.

 

 

His ERA+ was 150 in 2002 and 148 in 2003. 4.1 BB per 9 in 2002 is high, but his WHIP was still solid at 1.22.  He was striking out 11.4 guys per 9.

 

It is not as dramatic with May because May is not going to be Johan Santana, but you just can’t have this type of talent in the pen when you have 5.00+ ERA types in the rotation.  It is all relative.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

His ERA+ was 150 in 2002 and 148 in 2003. 4.1 BB per 9 in 2002 is high, but his WHIP was still solid at 1.22.  He was striking out 11.4 guys per 9.

 

It is not as dramatic with May because May is not going to be Johan Santana, but you just can’t have this type of talent in the pen when you have 5.00+ ERA types in the rotation.  It is all relative.

Santana's BB/9 was a bit higher as a starter in 2002 though (4.5), and he led all of MLB in wild pitches (15 in only 108 IP).  But I get your point, and I wanted to see him as a starter pretty much the moment we saw him log 13.9 K/9 in his first taste of AAA in 2002.

[Jham]

 

Let's start with my use of the phrase "settled science", which was (no, not 'was intended as') a jab at the absurdity of treating May's 30 strong innings of mostly low-leverage relief work as a prophecy of his likely future late-inning bullpen brilliance whilst simultaneously decrying his 83 innings of success in the rotation as a small-sample fluke.  I did not claim or even imply that anything about May's future potential as a starter is "settled science", so let's put that argument to bed.

 

While you're at it make room next to it for the straw man argument that May would pitch at the same level in the rotation this year and beyond as he did in his minuscule body of bullpen work last season.  Didn't say that, didn't imply it.

 

But since you brought it up, even allowing for a difference using your hypothetical 4.00 xFIP starter/ 3.00 xFIP reliever comparison of relative value, May the reliever would be very hard pressed to even approach, let alone exceed, the value of May the starter.  Maybe if Perkins and/or Jepsen are hurt/ineffective most of the year, May is closer or setup man all season, and his FIP substantially outperforms his 2015 xFIP.  Maybe.

 

And you're welcome to portray as ridiculous and unicornish the notion of May pitching as a starter in 2016 at a level approximating his 2015 starts.  But you'll have to do better than just asserting a high probability of regression despite citing only his walk rate as a likely cause.

 

Most of May's other 2015 peripherals as a starter look sustainable, with the notable exception of BAPIP.  He's probably not going to give up hits on 7 out of every 20 balls in play again this year, even if Sano's outfield adventures make Arcia look like Willie Mays. If May's .340 BABIP declines just a small amount, to a still lofty .315, it would almost exactly offset a walk rate increase of an additional BB per 9 IP, and would result in a net improvement in terms of runs allowed.

 

 

Despite what you think, I'm very aware that May's control has been an issue in the minors.  And I'm guessing the Twins were aware too, and yet they traded for him even though they hate pitcher walks the way cats hate baths.  That's probably because they know it's more common for power pitchers to develop control than for finesse pitchers to learn how to miss bats.

 

Also, while we're on the subject of ignoring certain aspects of minor league stats, you've made no mention of the fact that May cut his minor league walk rate by about .5BB/9 in both 2013 and 2014.  So while his dramatically improved 2015 walk rate obviously wasn't explained entirely by natural progression (which, again, nobody was saying), it also wasn't a bolt of outlier lightning from a clear blue stat sheet.

 

Oh, crap.  I've just now seen your post regarding the dozens of Twins pitchers who you feel have higher upside than May.  So it appears that either your posts in this thread were a brilliant, Onion-style parody, or else you just hate Trevor May with a passion.  Either way, thanks for your kind attention, and I'm sorry if I wasted your time.

I get your arguments.  As I've stated, I'm not saying anyone is wrong for wanting to see May start. You've pointed out the mixed data I've been referring to, perhaps unsustainable walk rate, perhaps unsustainable BABIP...  In terms of value of eating innings, every average starter will likely contribute to more wins than every above average reliever, at least on paper.  We could go to a 6 man rotation, and take some innings away from the other 5 starters.  We could swap May's innings for [insert starter] and hope that there would be no drop-off in the pen.  In my opinion, the safest route based on actual major league track record, is to put May in the pen.  Perhaps this lacks some upside compared to May in the rotation, but I do not see it as an unreasonable, irrational, or maliciously pre-determined move.  Just a decision to go with the bird in the hand in a season where their already chasing a few bush birds (Park, Buxton, Sano in right).

I can appreciate the irony in you calling my predictions "unicornish" and parody compared to your settled science, when really we're interpreting the same stats.  Since you complained that my analysis revolved entirely upon walk rates, I'll assume you didn't read the bleacher report article I posted which also examined control (limiting walks) and command (putting the pitch where you want it).  His command didn't really improve.  On May's side, the article points out, is his ability to get swings and misses on pitches in the strike zone which compensates for his average ability at getting pitchers to chase (likely another command issue).  To further elaborate on the BABIP and FIP arguments, I would point out that May gave up only one HR through the end of April, 20 innings and change.  Unless he was somehow limiting trajectory of contact, (controversial at best), you'd expect his BABIP to be higher since the hard-hit balls mostly stayed in the park.  This would explain some of both BABIP and FIP.  Fangraphs published May's splits between starts and relief last year.  His numbers were substantially better out of the bullpen in all but 2 categories: You guessed it, walks and home runs.  He walked more out of the pen (still far below his minor league average) and despite his dominance in the pen, gave up home runs at the same rate indicating that he may have been a little lucky as a starter that more balls didn't leave the yard.  Again, this isn't to say that May's relative success as a starter last season can't continue or that he can't continue to improve, it's simply pointing out logical rationale for keeping him in the pen.  He's a good player, and a potentially dominant reliever.  Just about every dominant reliever could have been an adequate starter.  Sorry if I don't see this move as evidence of poor management.

Finally, I'll concede whatever arguments you want regarding "upside" if it means you'll stop making fun of my postings.  Thanks.
 

[TheLeviathan]

 

One of higher upside SP?  

Santana: RotoWire News: "hitting 94-95 MPH on the radar gun, MLB.com reports. (3/6/2016)." ERA of 4.00 last season and 3.95 the season before.

Hughes: RotoWire News: Hughes reported to spring training 15 to 18 pounds lighter (2/23/2016).  27-19 as a Twins starter.

Gibson: peaked 34 on BBA's top 100 prospect list, 3 appearances, May made 1 list (68) as a Philly.

 

Yes, one of the higher upside pitchers.  I don't care what Hughes weights or where Gibson was on the prospect list 5 years ago.

 

May is one of the few potential starters with the ability to strike people out and the pitches to do it as a starter.  That alone makes him pretty much the highest upside arm outside of Berrios.  Santana is sort of a known quantity, there isn't a ton of upside in him.

[notoriousgod71]

So we traded two starting center fielders for a set up guy and a guy that is 26 and regressing every season? Cool.

[tobi0040]

So we traded two starting center fielders for a set up guy and a guy that is 26 and regressing every season? Cool.

You forgot about Worley. He is awesome.

 

In all seriousness, Revere would have been a corner OF here and has a career .687 OPS. I think management knew he would get squeezed out here, although they probably thought it would have been earlier than they thought. I would rather have May right now than Revere

Edited March 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yes, one of the higher upside pitchers.  I don't care what Hughes weights or where Gibson was on the prospect list 5 years ago.

 

May is one of the few potential starters with the ability to strike people out and the pitches to do it as a starter.  That alone makes him pretty much the highest upside arm outside of Berrios.  Santana is sort of a known quantity, there isn't a ton of upside in him.

 

This.  I'd much prefer May in the rotation.  Hopefully, he gets a shot.  Perhaps he and Berrios force it and they dump Nolsaco and trade Milone.

[The Wise One]

There are 3 things that seem to escape the May as a starter crowd.  One is the ERA climb as the innings went on as a starter. It goes up by 2. The out of zone swinging strike rate is average at best. The second or more times they see him, the more bad things happen

Two, He has a league average strikeout rate as a starter. To have that as an upside is of little use when he also ranks as a very hittable pitcher as a starter.

Three, the numbers all go in a positive direction as a reliever.

Small sample sizes all around. 25 games as a starter, 33 as a reliever.  So what is there to base the mythical upside on?

[The Wise One]

 

This.  I'd much prefer May in the rotation.  Hopefully, he gets a shot.  Perhaps he and Berrios force it and they dump Nolsaco and trade Milone.

Last player anybody released with multiple years left on a contract was?   Dump Nolasco? Not happening without someone wanting tortrade for him

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would rather have May right now than Revere

Yeah, that's not a difficult decision.

[alarp33]

 

There are 3 things that seem to escape the May as a starter crowd.  One is the ERA climb as the innings went on as a starter. It goes up by 2. The out of zone swinging strike rate is average at best. The second or more times they see him, the more bad things happen

Two, He has a league average strikeout rate as a starter. To have that as an upside is of little use when he also ranks as a very hittable pitcher as a starter.

 

 

Yeah so this just isn't true. 

 

League avg k/9 last year was 7.4, May was at 7.9 as a starter. 8.7 as a starter in 2014. 

 

As others have pointed out, most of his numbers include an unsustainable high babip.  

 

1st time through the order (2015):

 

.307/.331/.482

 

2nd time through the order:

 

.291/.317/.410

 

3rd time through the order:

 

.263/.337/.438

 

He also was improving, not counting the horrible outing in Milwaukee, these were his numbers from his last 5 starts;

 

30.1 innings, 6 runs, 30 K's, 9 walks

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Last player anybody released with multiple years left on a contract was?   Dump Nolasco? Not happening without someone wanting tortrade for him

 

Oh I agree, highly  unlikely, which is a big reason why I'm not a fan of big FA splashes... and in Rickey's case, the pen will likely be tried first.  Though to be fair, it has happened.  Mike Lamb, I think, got the boot, and I believe Jason Marquis was signed to a 2 year deal when he got let go. I could be wrong on both, but it has happened, even if it's rare.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah so this just isn't true. 

 

League avg k/9 last year was 7.4, May was at 7.9 as a starter. 8.7 as a starter in 2014. 

 

As others have pointed out, most of his numbers include an unsustainable high babip.  

 

1st time through the order (2015):

 

.307/.331/.482

 

2nd time through the order:

 

.291/.317/.410

 

3rd time through the order:

 

.263/.337/.438

 

He also was improving, not counting the horrible outing in Milwaukee, these were his numbers from his last 5 starts;

 

30.1 innings, 6 runs, 30 K's, 9 walks

 

Agree.  I'd add that even the best pitchers see an increase in ERA second and third time through the order.  The big thing with May is that he was improving.  His K rate was going up too. 

 

In my opinion, May has the potential to be a 1-3 type starter and will likely fit in as a solid #2.  Those are very valuable starters, far more valuable than an elite shut down pen option. 

[LaBombo]

 

Finally, I'll concede whatever arguments you want regarding "upside" if it means you'll stop making fun of my postings.  Thanks.
 

 

 

Hey, c'mon, not only was I not making fun of all your postings, I wasn't even making fun of all of your examples of upside alternatives to May.   Really it was just your mention of Ervin's zippier fastball on the very day he was getting his block knocked off against the Yanks, and then the Hughes weight loss thing, which fits the mold of the ubiquitous 'best shape of his career' story that has inevitably accompanied at least one athlete in every training camp since the dawn of sports.   Reminds me of the panic that year Bartolo or CC or some other fed zeppelin showed up to s.t. 20 lbs. lighter and the team was terrified he'd have no fastball without all his fat.

 

 

As for the rest, your theories about the correlation between lower home run rate and higher babip and the difference between walk rate and command are interesting, and I'll have to think about them.   I just don't understand major league pitching well enough to try to quantify the ways other than walk rate in which May's better-or-isn't-it command may manifest itself.   But so far it still looks to me like he's due to allow fewer hits.   We'll see.

 

We don't have entirely differing opinions of May or what to do with him.  Your first post looked a bit to me like you viewed all the May-to-the-rotation crowd as cut from the same 'get off my lawn', crackpot cloth, but your assessment above seems reasonable.  While you seem to see the main difference between us as being how we would expect May to pitch as a starter vs. reliever, the bigger difference to me is how we see the rotation shaping up and how the Twins will use May in the pen.

 

It's fairly easy to construct an argument that the Twins can field a fair to good rotation without May, freeing him to shore up a shaky bullpen.   But the fact remains that not a single Twins starter of the current candidates has earned much confidence through a combination of track record and peripherals.    Gibson is a given but has one good season, and Ervin pitched well overall, though spectacularly unevenly, while he was available.   But beyond that, it's a crapshoot, one that's going to be decided at least in part by contracts and egos.

 

And over in the bullpen, it remains to be seen whether the Twins will regularly use May in high leverage situations.    They eventually did toward the end of last season, but mostly out of necessity when it became clear that Perkins wasn't Perkins.    But if Glen pitches back to his previous form and Jepsen's deal with the xFIP devil doesn't expire, May could easily find himself in a middle relief role again, even if he doesn't stumble out of the gate.

 

Summary: No, I don't think the Twins are foolish because they're putting May in the current bullpen.    No, I don't think May would be either a lock or even a great bet to pitch like a #3 or better starter for a full season.    And yes, I still think the Twins will end up wishing they would have penciled May into the rotation, even if it means also ending up wishing they'd tried harder to sign a good reliever.

 

Oh, and you don't have to concede to any of my points about upside to get me to stop making fun of your points.   Just stop saying that I called my May speculation 'settled science'.    Deal?

[The Wise One]

 

Oh I agree, highly  unlikely, which is a big reason why I'm not a fan of big FA splashes... and in Rickey's case, the pen will likely be tried first.  Though to be fair, it has happened.  Mike Lamb, I think, got the boot, and I believe Jason Marquis was signed to a 2 year deal when he got let go. I could be wrong on both, but it has happened, even if it's rare.

1 year 3 million on Marquis. There are many free agent busts let go in the last year of the contract, but before them it is hope for the best,.  The best hope for moving Nolasco was a team having a couple of disasters

Edited March 23, 2016 by The Wise One

[The Wise One]

 

Yeah so this just isn't true. 

 

League avg k/9 last year was 7.4, May was at 7.9 as a starter. 8.7 as a starter in 2014. 

 

As others have pointed out, most of his numbers include an unsustainable high babip.  

 

1st time through the order (2015):

 

.307/.331/.482

 

2nd time through the order:

 

.291/.317/.410

 

3rd time through the order:

 

.263/.337/.438

 

He also was improving, not counting the horrible outing in Milwaukee, these were his numbers from his last 5 starts;

 

30.1 innings, 6 runs, 30 K's, 9 walks

Try over his career to get something approach a sample size that can not be called limited.

BABIP is going to be  "unsustainably" high with a much higher than average LD%   It will also stay unsustainably high when you have a higher than average hard hit ball percentage. BABIP is not totally luck.   7.4 versus 7.9 is not that big of difference.. again, you continue to argue small sample sizes and "Throw out the one bad outing" which happened against one of the worst offensive teams last year. Again nothing you post shows someone who is going to be anything different than the middle of the rotation starter that people complain of the Twins signing

Edited March 23, 2016 by The Wise One

[dxpavelka]

 

I am going off memory here, but wasn't there a arbitration or control issue with Johan? I thought we were keeping him in the pen to garner additional control.  That the cut off back then had an innings component to it.

 

I just tried looking on the google with no avail.  I am probably not remembering this right.

I don't remember there being an arbitration component but I could be wrong about that.  He appeared in 30 games and 86 innings in 2001 and 15 games and 43 innings in 2001 so he already had quite a few innings before 2002.  2002 was the specific season where he had 14 starts and 13 relief appearances combining for 108 innings.  And I stand corrected, he did pitch out of the bullpen in the 2002 playoffs.  My memory was blurred by the fact that he SHOULD have been the # 1 starter after striking out 137 batters and compiling a 2.99 ERA in those 108 innings.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And I stand corrected, he did pitch out of the bullpen in the 2002 playoffs.

How could you forget about Adam ****ing Kennedy?

[dxpavelka]

 

How could you forget about Adam ****ing Kennedy?

Same way I've forgotten about Len Dawson, Larry Csonka, Franco Harris & Clutch Biletnikof