Article: Trevor May Headed To The Bullpen

[alarp33]

 

Well, that's certainly possible.......but does anyone think they see him as a starter this year, or does moving to the pen make it even more obvious they don't*

 

*unless they want to repeat last year's fiasco.

 

No, I don't think they ever saw him as a starter this year.  The other poster said he "had his chance and lost", which I think couldn't be further from the truth

[h2oface]

"I envision him being a future starter. I don't know why he can't be a starter in the major leagues," He (Ryan) continued, "He's got the pitches. He's got the strength. He's shown he can do it......"

 

...... because you don't let him start! Sometimes...... sometimes I wonder if Ryan even hears himself.

 

[old nurse]

 

There is a decent chance that moving May to the bullpen - especially in a one-inning, high-leverage role - will permanently end his chances of being an effective starter. Some pitchers have been able to bounce back and forth effectively, but others (ex. Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando) were never able to get go back to starting. I don't expect Ryan to admit that publicly, but I do wonder if they understand that risk internally.

One could contend that Ogando and Chamberlain were not great  in either role. The held the tools to keep getting chances. Feliz was injured the  year he was a starter and never was the same pitcher afterwards.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They could have, but if May lost the competition in 2 weeks he would be headed to AAA to start rather than going to the bullpen.

But it would be okay for Milone or Nolasco to go to the bullpen at the end of spring training? Just like it was okay for Pelfrey to do so last spring? You're not making sense here. It is pretty clear that Trevor May never had an equal chance to win a starting job in this "competition" and if you are applying different standards to him than the other candidates (i.e. he can't be moved to the pen at the end of spring training), then that proves my point.

[howieramone2]

 

That we did nothing via trade or free agency to bolster the bullpen and that we loaded our rotation with a number of overpriced FA signings.

 

So now we move arguably the 2nd or 3rd best starter in the rotation out to the bullpen to compensate.

We didn't sign any free agent starting pitchers this off season. Now if you're doing the hindsight thing, no one screamed harder than you to sign FA's. Shame on our favorite team for not signing the exact ones you desired.

 

We moved arguably the 6th or 7th best starter to the bullpen. This sounds so much like Meyer, Pinto, Arcia, Zach Jones etc.

[DJL44]

When did I become the person evaluating Trevor May? The Twins evaluate their players. They wanted to move him now to become a short reliever. Apparently that means a different workout routine, otherwise I agree there is no reason to make the decision now.

 

Milone or Nolasco will be the long reliever. Long relievers don't warm up on short notice and enter games in the middle of an inning and they don't pitch back to back days. They're treated a lot more like a starting pitcher.

 

I am glad they decided not to make May the long reliever as that would be the biggest waste of his innings.

 

If May had been performing better (had been winning the competition) they probably wouldn't have made the move now.

 

[DocBauer]

To me, I am not going to state May is definitively better than so and so and is defiantly one of our top 5 starters. I'm not going to say that because NOW at least, I don't know that he's better than Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and Berrios. (Or Berrios soon) Do I think he's as good and potentially better? Yes. Probably better than Milone, who I admit to not giving enough credit to. And part of me gets having a lefty in the rotation. I really do. But until or unless a guy or two gets moved, SOMEONE has to go to the pen for now.

 

That someone is May, though you could make an equally strong argument based on pitch selection and bullpen experience that Duffey is as good or better choice. What ticks me off is how well May was throwing as a starter when the move was made last year.

 

But, as I said, SOMEONE has to move to the bullpen for now. It's May. For NOW I will be OK with the move, though disappointed. But I'd be disappointed if it were Duffey too. To make room for both of these guys, and Berrios, at some point, someone will need to be moved.

[howieramone2]

 

I want to point out that we could have easily not tendered Milone and allocated that $4m to a reliever and accomplished this.  May in the rotation and a FA reliever.

Our favorite team had no intention of getting rid of a starting pitcher with a career record of 41-29. Could you list the 4M relievers available to us you wanted to block our young prospects? Hopefully they are not the decline phase relievers from the NL requiring multi-year contracts. You realize they will start regressing before they even discover where the men's rooms are at Target Field.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Our favorite team had no intention of getting rid of a starting pitcher with a career record of 41-29. Could you list the 4M relievers available to us you wanted to block our young prospects? Hopefully they are not the decline phase relievers from the NL requiring multi-year contracts. You realize they will start regressing before they even discover where the men's rooms are at Target Field.

 

which young prospects? Perkins? Fien? Jepsen? May? Nolasco/Milone?

[TheLeviathan]

We moved arguably the 6th or 7th best starter to the bullpen. This sounds so much like Meyer, Pinto, Arcia, Zach Jones etc.

6th or 7th huh?

 

Well then....

[Jham]

 

What kind of good luck do you think he was having?  A well above above average BABIP against?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/12/10962680/trevor-may-twins-walk-rate-control-command

"Over 775.0 innings, he walked 11.6 percent of the batters he faced — more than twice his mark from 2015. Can he maintain that unbelievable progress?"

[jimmer]

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/12/10962680/trevor-may-twins-walk-rate-control-command

"Over 775.0 innings, he walked 11.6 percent of the batters he faced — more than twice his mark from 2015. Can he maintain that unbelievable progress?"

As the called strike zones continue to expand, walks are going down.  Hughes did the same thing from 2013 to 2014. And do we know a few more walks will kill him/his numbers?

 

Now, is he going to continue to have a BABIP against almost 40 points higher than league average?  Not sure how a 28  point differenrce in BABIP isn;t too out of the ordinary, but see below.

 

'Unsurprisingly, May posted an unsightly .340 BABIP last season, backed up by a subpar hard-hit rate of 29.8 percent. His approach shouldn't bear all the blame for that — his defense didn't do him any favors, and he had a minor-league BABIP of .312, so that wasn't too out of the ordinary. Still, he probably wouldn't have allowed so many hits without pounding the zone.'

Edited March 17, 2016 by jimmer

[Jham]

 

As the called strike zones continue to expand, walks are going down.  Hughes did the same thing from 2013 to 2014. And do we know a few more walks will kill him/his numbers?

 

Now, is he going to continue to have a BABIP against almost 40 points higher than league average?

Which is the point of my original post, that there is decidedly mixed results.  His hard hit % went up to 29% last year, so maybe his BABIP will remain high.  The smart money is on it going down, same with his walks going up.  You can find all kinds of reasons to ignore or contradict data, and I do it continually.  There's some evidence showing that his mixed results should have been better, there's some evidence that says it could have been even worse.  It is, however, NOT arguable that May was much better out of the pen (4.01 xFIP 1st half, 3.08 2nd half).  

For the record, I would have been just fine giving May another shot in the rotation and moving Duffey, a former closer, back to the pen.  

[tobi0040]

Our favorite team had no intention of getting rid of a starting pitcher with a career record of 41-29. Could you list the 4M relievers available to us you wanted to block our young prospects? Hopefully they are not the decline phase relievers from the NL requiring multi-year contracts. You realize they will start regressing before they even discover where the men's rooms are at Target Field.

Well W-L is an interesting way to evaluate a pitcher (Ricky Nolasco was 5-2 last year with a 6.75 ERA). But if Milone was very valuable, we could have traded him for a reliever. That would likely be a better course of action.

 

It is also interesting to suggest we don't want a FA in a decline phase. Given guys on 6-7 years of team control and studies suggesting players peak around 27, aren't we just throwing out that avenue altogether?

 

You are likely on to something though. Given the availability of above average relievers on 2-4 year deals and average starters in larger dollar, 4-6 year deals, maybe we should be signing relievers in FA and keeping guys like May in the rotation vs. shelling out for guys like Nolasco and Ervin, then moving May to the pen. I would take it a step further and question the amount of 1st-4th round draft picks we used on relievers from about 2007 to today and use those on starters.

 

Mark Lowe and Steve Cishek would have been two examples for 2-10, roughly the same per year as Milone's 4.5m

Edited March 17, 2016 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

 

It is also interesting to suggest we don't want a FA in a decline phase. Given guys on 6-7 years of team control and studies suggesting players peak around 27, aren't we just throwing out that avenue altogether?

That's probably the best idea.  To just take out FA acquisition out of the equation all together.  And how convenient that would be since that is what Ryan is most criticized for :-)

Edited March 17, 2016 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

I had forgotten Duffey was a closer in college. For me, the rotation is Gibson, Santana, Hughes, May, Berrios. Milone to long relief and Duffey to the pen. I have enjoyed quite enough of Nolasco's circus music. He just is not very good any more. Why the team needs more evidence of that just frustrates me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have enjoyed quite enough of Nolasco's circus music. He just is not very good any more. Why the team needs more evidence of that just frustrates me.

Because it's not even March 20th yet and he was injured for pretty much all of 2015?

 

I dislike Nolasco as much as the next guy but half this forum has gone completely off the rails with their opinions on him.

 

There is so little to be lost in roster flexibility by putting Nolasco in the long relief role and he provides modest spot starter upside.

[jorgenswest]

Is there any concern that he won't stay healthy in the bullpen role. Mike Berardino wrote about it towards the end of last season.

 

May also wonders if the lower-back spasms that plagued him over the final five-plus weeks would have be easier to ward off he’d remained in the rotation. In his starter days his hip would usually bother him in August, but he was able to manage the problem better with at least four days of rest between starts.

[LaBombo]

 

I have never understood the bullish belief that a) May is a better starter than reliever, and b ) May is a good starter.  

 

 

 

 

 

By "bullish belief" that May is a good starter, do you mean the belief that's built on his very strong 5+ year minor league track record compiled ENTIRELY as a starter, as well as a half season last year as one of the Twins' two best starting pitchers?

 

Would that be as opposed to the 'settled science' of May's certain future as a brilliant late inning reliever that's based almost entirely on thirty one relief innings last year, fewer than half of which were in high-leverage situations?

 

 

As for the belief that May is a "better starter than reliever", you may have meant to address an entirely different argument, one that people were actually making, which is that May is more valuable as a starter than as a reliever.

 

Given that...

 

a) in his half season as a starter last year May pitched at a level that was on pace to be more valuable by over a full run above replacement than Aroldis Chapman v.2015 when projected over a full season,

 

b} although he was excellent in relief, May was not Aroldis Effing Chapman,

 

c) the Twins organization has wandered in the starting pitching wilderness so long that last year it practically wet its collective pants in both joy and relief at the emergence of Kyle Gibson as a 2.5 WAR, #3-ish starter even as May pitched himself toward a 3.5+ WAR season as a starter,

 

and d) outside of Gibson, not one of the candidates for the 2016 Twins rotation was as valuable all of last season as May was for half of it as a starter,

 

.... then maybe the argument that May is more valuable as a starter isn't quite as ungettable as you're making it out to be.

Edited March 18, 2016 by LaBombo

[jimmer]

 

By "bullish belief" that May is a good starter, do you mean the belief that's built on his very strong 5+ year minor league track record compiled ENTIRELY as a starter, as well as a half season last year as one of the Twins' two best starting pitchers?

 

Would that be as opposed to the 'settled science' of May's certain future as a brilliant late inning reliever that's based almost entirely on thirty one relief innings last year, fewer than half of which were in high-leverage situations?

 

 

As for the belief that May is a "better starter than reliever", you may have meant to address an entirely different argument, one that people were actually making, which is that May is more valuable as a starter than as a reliever.

 

Given that...

 

a) in his half season as a starter last year May pitched at a level that was on pace to be more valuable by over a full run above replacement than Aroldis Chapman v.2015 when projected over a full season,

 

although he was excellent in relief, May was not Aroldis Effing Chapman,

 

c) the Twins organization has wandered in the starting pitching wilderness so long that last year it practically wet its collective pants in both joy and relief at the emergence of Kyle Gibson as a 2.5 WAR, #3-ish starter,

 

and d) outside of Gibson, not one of the candidates for the 2016 Twins rotation was as valuable all of last season as May was for half of it as a starter,

 

.... then maybe the argument that May is more valuable as a starter isn't quite as ungettable as you're making it out to be.

Man I love this post so much!  

 

When demoted May had the best WAR of any starter in the rotation by a good margin.  Like he was the only one over 1.0 and he was close to 2.0.  He had the most Ks/9 and the 2nd least BB/9.

 

At the All Star break, he still led all Twins starters in WAR by half a win.

Edited March 18, 2016 by jimmer

[Thrylos]

 

 

Also, May to the pen means one less spot for Burdi/Chargois/Meyer/Pressly/Reed.

 

Chargois and Reed were cut before this decision was made.  

 

May was not their competition, Tonkin (who has been horrid) is

[jimmer]

 

Chargois and Reed were cut before this decision was made.  

 

May was not their competition, Tonkin (who has been horrid) is

This decision was made last summer.  But yeah, May wasn't their competition.  He was assured a spot in the bullpen a long time ago.

[stringer bell]

I don't mind the May move at all given the composition of the Twins staff and who their prospects are. IMHO, May would be a solid starter, but he could be better than that in the bullpen. I haven't seen enough either in the rotation or the 'pen to be absolutely sure.

 

There is a recurring theme that the Twins should have enhanced their bullpen so that May could claim his rightful place (emphasis mine) in the rotation. I, for one, wanted the club to add a good reliever, probably at the expense of Casey Fien. It sounded like the Twins were willing to do so until the contracts for solid relievers got longer and more expensive than they were willing to go. With quite a few prospects ready to contribute by next year, if not sooner, the Twins passed on the likes of Tony Sipp, Anthony Bastardo and a bunch of RH relievers. I'm not sure I agree with their rationale, but it is defensible.

 

The rotation is overpopulated with mid-rotation guys with little upside. However, they have seven guys competing for five spots and IMHO they all belong in the majors. It looks to me like Milone is head and shoulders ahead of both Nolasco and Duffey. I also believe that is the proper decision. I hope Duffey fills out the rotation and Nolasco is assigned to long relief, but Nolasco's resumé tells me that he might have value as a starter although we haven't seen much of it at all since he came to Minnesota.

[The Wise One]

 

that simply isn't true......he will lose millions in the time it takes to get to a real contract. 

 

It also pretty much assumes the conclusion, right? Of course a GREAT RP makes more than a bad starter.......what if he is an average starter, and used in middle relief, which guy makes more money that way? Because Ryan has already said he might be the long RP........

What if   What ifs is all the people have  to go on.  Whatever it is that the Twins are not seeing out of May last year as a starter that caused them to call up Duffrey still exist.  

[The Wise One]

 

Well W-L is an interesting way to evaluate a pitcher (Ricky Nolasco was 5-2 last year with a 6.75 ERA). But if Milone was very valuable, we could have traded him for a reliever. That would likely be a better course of action.

It is also interesting to suggest we don't want a FA in a decline phase. Given guys on 6-7 years of team control and studies suggesting players peak around 27, aren't we just throwing out that avenue altogether?

You are likely on to something though. Given the availability of above average relievers on 2-4 year deals and average starters in larger dollar, 4-6 year deals, maybe we should be signing relievers in FA and keeping guys like May in the rotation vs. shelling out for guys like Nolasco and Ervin, then moving May to the pen. I would take it a step further and question the amount of 1st-4th round draft picks we used on relievers from about 2007 to today and use those on starters.

Mark Lowe and Steve Cishek would have been two examples for 2-10, roughly the same per year as Milone's 4.5m

Players peak at 27. Why then are people   wasting time  on a guy who is almost over the hill.

Edited March 18, 2016 by The Wise One

[Otto von Ballpark]

I, for one, wanted the club to add a good reliever, probably at the expense of Casey Fien. It sounded like the Twins were willing to do so until the contracts for solid relievers got longer and more expensive than they were willing to go.

 

Evidence? Lots of solid relievers (Lowe, Benoit, etc.) changed teams this winter for little more than our overall commitment to Jepsen.

 

This is one of those myths that sounds nice in theory, like the catching market being so barren as to necessitate the early Suzuki extension, but it absolutely fails when you actually look at the whole market and not just at the top couple names (who the Twins likely weren't competing for regardless).

 

The Twins fell in love early with the idea of May in the bullpen, just like they became overly enamored with Suzuki as their starting catcher. And then they proceeded to do nothing over a full winter to improve in those areas, or add flexibility to those plans. It's really that simple.

[laloesch]

 

I think the Twins think that May can start the same way they thought Sano could play 3B.  Just enough to let the guy down slowly over a three year period.

 

 

Boy i hope they don't think that.  A guy with his STUFF and 4 pitches that's starter material.  If they never let May become a starter I will lose a ton of respect for this manager and front office

[Otto von Ballpark]

Darren O day is ancient, hence less money. try again

O'Day is the same age as Ervin Santana, and is guaranteed less going forward. Same age as Nolasco too, and he barely eclipses Nolasco's total remaining cash (and of course both Nolasco and Santana still have much higher AAVs). "Try again."

[laloesch]

 

What if   What ifs is all the people have  to go on.  Whatever it is that the Twins are not seeing out of May last year as a starter that caused them to call up Duffrey still exist.  

 

 

OR OR he is the one guy that is a team player and won't whine incessantly about being sent to the pen or AAA (see Nolasco & Milone).  Duffey was the unexpected wild card.

Edited March 18, 2016 by laloesch

[USAFChief]

I don't mind the May move at all given the composition of the Twins staff and who their prospects are. IMHO, May would be a solid starter, but he could be better than that in the bullpen. I haven't seen enough either in the rotation or the 'pen to be absolutely sure.

 

There is a recurring theme that the Twins should have enhanced their bullpen so that May could claim his rightful place (emphasis mine) in the rotation. I, for one, wanted the club to add a good reliever, probably at the expense of Casey Fien. It sounded like the Twins were willing to do so until the contracts for solid relievers got longer and more expensive than they were willing to go. With quite a few prospects ready to contribute by next year, if not sooner, the Twins passed on the likes of Tony Sipp, Anthony Bastardo and a bunch of RH relievers. I'm not sure I agree with their rationale, but it is defensible.

 

The rotation is overpopulated with mid-rotation guys with little upside. However, they have seven guys competing for five spots and IMHO they all belong in the majors. It looks to me like Milone is head and shoulders ahead of both Nolasco and Duffey. I also believe that is the proper decision. I hope Duffey fills out the rotation and Nolasco is assigned to long relief, but Nolasco's resumé tells me that he might have value as a starter although we haven't seen much of it at all since he came to Minnesota.

Concur, except the part about adding reliever(s) this past winter. I don't think they ever made any serious attempt. Trades are possible, too, if one believes money should have gotten in the way.

 

And if they had added only one solid pen arm, I'd still think May to the pen probably makes the most sense.