Article: Spring Training: Results Versus Process

[Seth Stohs]

Whether it is on Twitter, Facebook, or just talking to people here in Ft. Myers or back home, there is one question that seems to come up most frequently at this time of year. At what point to results (statistics) start to matter in spring training?

 

It’s a good and fair question. So, I asked Twins GM Terry Ryan for his input. We often see a big leaguer hitting .170 and a minor league free agent signing hitting .350 in spring and inevitably, we’ll get the questions. And it is a good question, so it’s one I wanted to discuss a little bit.We all understand that established, veteran players use spring training to get prepared for the start of the regular season. A starting pitcher may choose to go with nothing but fastballs the first time out, wanting to work on mechanics, work in and out, up and down, whatever it may be. The next outing, which will be more pitches, he may choose to use a pattern of fastball, changeup, curveball. That way, in 45 pitches, he is throwing 15 of each of his pitches. In the third start, They may try to see how going back-to-back changeups work by throwing three in a row. Each veteran pitcher kind of has a plan and works with the pitching coach and the catchers to establish how they can accomplish that in a spring start. Again, the goal is to ramp up so that by Opening Day, he is full go, ready to throw 100 pitches and use his pitches effectively.

 

Veteran hitters like Joe Mauer or Trevor Plouffe or Brian Dozier also work on aspects of their games in preparation for the season. Joe Mauer likes to see a lot of pitches, and that’s worked for him. Brian Dozier may work on staying inside pitches and using the whole field. Whether they hit .100 or .400, they’ll be in the lineup Opening Day and again it’s most important that they be ready then.

 

For the veterans, it is almost completely about process. Doing what they need to do to prepare for the season.

 

The same isn’t necessarily true for the minor league free agents or the minor leaguers who are in big league camp. That is especially true this spring with the Twins. They had fewer position battles and question marks heading into this season than previous seasons. There are only a select few positions and spots on the roster that are even available.

 

While the process is still the same, the urgency changes. For guys like Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana and Michael Tonkin (who are all out of options), spring is very important.

 

Danny Santana has to show that he can play defense around the infield and outfield while showing that he can hit better than he did in 2015. Oswaldo Arcia has to show that 2014 was just a bad year, one to forget and move forward from. He has to take better at-bats and show he can have some value in the outfield. Michael Tonkin has shown that he can dominate hitters in AAA but this is yet to translate in the big leagues. The Twins have a lot of quality arms competing for the last couple of spots in the bullpen, so Tonkin will have to show something on the mound.

 

Brandon Kintzler was signed as a minor league free agent after missing most of the 2015 season with a knee injury. He has to show that he’s healthy and able to jump right back into a bullpen with success.

 

Guys like Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzler have plenty to show as well. Not only are they minor league signings but both pitched in independent baseball in 2015 which (right or wrong) may be something they will have to overcome.

 

Then you’ve got the young players who are very close, trying to establish themselves as big leaguers. For Byron Buxton, it is about the process. It’s about showing that he can work a count, lay off those tough two-strike pitches and put together quality at- bats so that his athleticism can take over.

 

Following Sunday’s game, Paul Molitor said of Buxton, “I think he’s seeing the ball better. Recognition is getting better. That’s going to be a huge part of how quickly he’s going to be able to develop offensively. Bat speed and those types of things. Trying to keep the ball in the zone with two strikes.”

 

All part of the process.

 

For guys like Ryan Pressly, JR Graham, Ryan O’Rourke and the like, it is about results. The Twins have to decide whether to have two lefties in the bullpen or three. If they have just one lefty available to set up for Glen Perkins, another right-hander (obviously) would fill that spot. These guys have some experience and varying levels of success. All certainly could fill a role if asked. But something is going to have to differentiate the eventual “winners” of the final bullpen spots. For them, results are going to matter, especially over the next couple of weeks.

 

For younger players, guys like Yorman Landa, Randy Rosario, Adam Brett Walker, Alex Swim, JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Engelb Vielma, it’s back to fully being about process. Sure, if they perform well, it can make a strong impression on coaches. That said, they are there to learn from veterans, to work on their games, and to prepare to be better in 2016. They knew they weren’t going to be on the opening day roster, so they needed to use the time to soak up as much information as they could from coaches and veterans to incorporate into their games in 2016 and beyond.

 

To summarize, my response to everyone has been the same. The results in games on the field are much more important to Joe Benson than Joe Mauer. Stats and performance are much more important to Taylor Rogers than it is to Glen Perkins.

 

I ended with that example intentionally. Taylor Rogers was in big league camp last year as a non-roster invite. Last year, he was there solely to soak up information. His situation is different in 2016. Not only is he there to learn as much as he can from veterans and coaches, but he is also one of the guys who is still competing for a spot in the Twins bullpen. So for a guy like that, results and process are both important.

 

Now, that is all my thinking, and it is based on following spring training for years. Listen, there’s a reason that Luke Hughes put up great spring training numbers for a few years. At the time, he was competing for the 24th or 25th spot on the big league roster. Because of that, he was a guy who played a lot, made the road trips and started frequently. The team needed to decide if he should make the roster. He performed. Of course, once the regular season starts, he no longer played much, got very inconsistent playing time and struggled when called upon in that role.

 

That’s probably a good example of the whole Results versus Process conversation as it relates to spring training. It’s why all spring training stats have to be looked at with a bit of context.

 

So while in Ft. Myers, I asked Terry Ryan the same question that I get often at this time of year. I wanted to test my beliefs and thoughts on the subject with the Twins General Manager. “Terry, is there a point in spring training when results becomes more important than process?”

 

We were specifically talking about the bullpen, and Ryan responded by saying, “There are certain guys where the results have been very important to this point. There are other guys where you let the process take place. There are guys that had to perform early and often because of where they are and who they are, and there are guys that you know you don’t have to worry about. One of them is Perkins. Another one is Jepsen. And Fien. Those types of guys that have been here and done it. They might be doing some things that you wouldn’t be get terribly concerned about if they had a horrible outing or two. That’s just the way it is.”

 

That’s not to say that as camp goes along you don’t want to put up the numbers. The numbers should be fine because the process is working.

 

Ryan continued, “You’re always looking for guys to be crisp, and sharp, and throw with some sort of command, but that doesn’t happen all the time. So when you get deeper into the camp and you start approaching the month of April, you’d like to see firm things up. But still, you’re going to take those guys regardless of what they do here, assuming they’re healthy.”

 

When guys get to spring training, they have a good idea of where they are on the roster outlook, and based on that what might be expected of them during the spring.

 

“I’ve said this before. Most of those guys know where they stand as prospects or guys that are on an invite, or guys that have four or five years. For the most part, I don’t think any of those guys are bewildered about who they are and where they’re at in their career.”

 

To give one example of the situation, Ryan mentioned two left-handed relief pitchers who are looking to win a spot on the Opening Day roster, Fernando Abad and Taylor Rogers.

 

“Abad is different than Rogers. Abad’s got three or four years of major league service. Rogers has zero. One’s on the roster (Rogers), the other isn’t (Abad). But they know where they’re at. I don’t have to worry about explaining too much to Taylor Rogers. I talk to him obviously. I know him. Abad’s in here because he’s a free agent who we had interest in. He knows where he’s at. If there’s a guy where it’s a mystery, that’s not good”

 

Despite three left-handed pitchers being sent to minor league camp there are still ten more lefties in search of one, and maybe two, Opening Day jobs with the Twins. Each has his own unique situation and circumstance.

And then the regular season starts, and it’s a long haul, a long process, in which results take on a new meaning.

 

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[tobi0040]

Regarding the Twins deciding between keeping 2 or 3 lefties, I have a tough time seeing them breaking camp with three.

[jorgenswest]

I am with you as long as results are not based on statistics from spring.

 

Results must be based on the assessment of a skilled staff seeing the approach at the plate and on the mound. The assessment in work outs about the quality of pitches and the ability to defend in the field and recognize pitches at the plate.

[Jham]

Forgot the part about multiplying the result, whether process or result or combo, by investment.  As in, there are some players where neither the process nor the result will make much difference because the investment trumps both.  Well, the investment plus finding the right shade of sun glasses...

[Loosey]

So which camp is Ricky Nolasco in?  In theory he is an established major leaguer who should be working on building up for the season, but reality is he is fighting for a spot in the rotation and quite possibly on the team. 

 

The other question is, does he know what bucket he is in?  So does he change his spring training routine to meet what needs to be done?

[GMinTraining]

I understand that you were talking to Ryan about pitching, but my wonder is about the positional results vs process.

 

How does a player on the 40 man roster get single digit ABs when there are high A and lower prospects receiving double digit ABs during spring training?  For example:  Walker started two games last year at DH as a minor league (non 40 man) ST call up and this year never earns a start and logs the same number of ABs as last year (8)?  

 

What should a player think about his spot in the organization?  I understand there should be limited ABs for a player not going to make the opening day roster, but 8 ABs through first 12 games?  Wow

 

Kepler is a Top 100 prospect and has hit well based on BA (.333).  Should he be more concerned with results or process?

 

Buxton is very similar to Kepler in that he is a Top Prospect.  His speed is his defining skill set.  How is he diferent from Kepler? Should he be more concerned with results or process?

 

How do the results vs process play out for positional players?  Does a player worry about results or process when they don't have an idea of when / how many games you will play in ST?  Do they tell positional players what is expected from them while in camp? or is it wait and see as camp evolves?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"But something is going to have to differentiate the eventual “winners” of the final bullpen spots. For them, results are going to matter, especially over the next couple of weeks."

 

I agree, fair or not, it's perfectly natural to look at stat lines to differentiate similar players fighting for the same spot. There just isn't enough time in spring training to observe guys multiple times apiece under various game situations.

[Mike Sixel]

I wonder how Kepler feels about his position, if he out hits Buxton at every level?

[70charger]

 

I am with you as long as results are not based on statistics from spring.

Results must be based on the assessment of a skilled staff seeing the approach at the plate and on the mound. The assessment in work outs about the quality of pitches and the ability to defend in the field and recognize pitches at the plate.

 

 

Basically this. The answer to the question "when do spring stats start to matter" is, to me, pretty much never.

 

You mentioned that some pitchers will do things like throw only fastballs the first game of the year. If he doesn't get knocked around, will we fall back on our "pitchers are ahead of hitters at this point" cliche? If he gets knocked around, is that indicative of what he'll do during the season? And when we count up his stats at the end of spring, his ERA will include his experimental and rusty early starts, so what is a spring ERA worth? Then if you want to remove the early starts to make ERA more closely aligned with a real-game experience, you're taking an already small sample and making it tiny, so again, what is a spring ERA worth?

 

This is on the well-trained staff of scouts, coaches, and manager. We can argue about spring stats until we're blue in the face (and we probably should, because otherwise it'd be boring around here), but not a single one of us could reasonably make a stats-based argument that would be better than the subjective judgment of the staff.

[bluechipper]

 

I wonder how Kepler feels about his position, if he out hits Buxton at every level?

Do you mean just last year or this spring?

 

Either way, Kepler isn't really a full time center fielder anyway. Plus, I'm sure he gets why Buxton and all of his talent and potential gets more of a shot to make the team.

[alarp33]

 

I wonder how Kepler feels about his position, if he out hits Buxton at every level?

 

Kepler is not now, nor will ever be in a competition with Buxton.  Would he be a potential CF option if Buxton were to go on the DL early in the season? Sure, but his clearest route to the Majors is Rosario continuing to be allergic to walks, a Plouffe trade, etc.  

 

If you want to worry about Kepler's feelings, I would ask what he thinks about them moving Sano to RF.  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler is not now, nor will ever be in a competition with Buxton.  Would he be a potential CF option if Buxton were to go on the DL early in the season? Sure, but his clearest route to the Majors is Rosario continuing to be allergic to walks, a Plouffe trade, etc.  

 

If you want to worry about Kepler's feelings, I would ask what he thinks about them moving Sano to RF.  

 

I bet I can guess that one!

[ExpectMorePayLess]

 

Kepler is not now, nor will ever be in a competition with Buxton.  Would he be a potential CF option if Buxton were to go on the DL early in the season? Sure, but his clearest route to the Majors is Rosario continuing to be allergic to walks, a Plouffe trade, etc.  

 

If you want to worry about Kepler's feelings, I would ask what he thinks about them moving Sano to RF.  

Agreed.  I bet if you ask Kepler, he believes he's as good as anyone in the Twins outfield - including Sano.  I bet he believes his skill set is more complete (5 toolish).  He won't be happy staying in AAA waiting for an injury.  I'm also sure Twins don't care about feelings.  They have to protect their small market views and hold on to in house talent as long as they can.

[Blackjack]

Kepler's fate is in his own hands, go down and show some mental fortitude, don't pout, knock the cover off the ball, do a 'Milone' and prove that he belongs in Minnesota. If he does that, the Twins will find a way, he'll be up by June 1. Or he can do an 'Arcia', go down and bat .198, then he'd be lucky to see Minnesota in September. The choice is his.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I understand that you were talking to Ryan about pitching, but my wonder is about the positional results vs process.

 

How does a player on the 40 man roster get single digit ABs when there are high A and lower prospects receiving double digit ABs during spring training?  For example:  Walker started two games last year at DH as a minor league (non 40 man) ST call up and this year never earns a start and logs the same number of ABs as last year (8)?  

 

What should a player think about his spot in the organization?  I understand there should be limited ABs for a player not going to make the opening day roster, but 8 ABs through first 12 games?  Wow

 

Kepler is a Top 100 prospect and has hit well based on BA (.333).  Should he be more concerned with results or process?

 

Buxton is very similar to Kepler in that he is a Top Prospect.  His speed is his defining skill set.  How is he diferent from Kepler? Should he be more concerned with results or process?

 

How do the results vs process play out for positional players?  Does a player worry about results or process when they don't have an idea of when / how many games you will play in ST?  Do they tell positional players what is expected from them while in camp? or is it wait and see as camp evolves?

 

All fair points and questions. Here are my thoughts;

 

Walker - he's working on some things that really limit his ability to get in the lineup. I wish he would have got some more at bats, but they also weren't going to play him in the outfield for other reasons. He did play left field in the minor league game today.

 

Kepler - I should start by saying that Process always matter. The article was more about which is more important during spring training in relation to making the Opening Day roster. Kepler has a chance to make it but would really have to show something and likely that would be in numbers. So for him to make the roster, he'd really have to do something special. So, for him, process is still very important.

 

Buxton - Unless he was completely lost, he was making the team as the starting CF. So, the statistics don't matter as much as showing that he can take improved at bats, etc.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

"But something is going to have to differentiate the eventual “winners” of the final bullpen spots. For them, results are going to matter, especially over the next couple of weeks."

I agree, fair or not, it's perfectly natural to look at stat lines to differentiate similar players fighting for the same spot. There just isn't enough time in spring training to observe guys multiple times apiece under various game situations.

 

Right... but it may not be ERA and/or WHIP. It may be K rate, and certainly BB rate will matter. Number of pitches. Dominance, things like that.

[Rosterman]

Regarding at bats. It's going out and getting a couple of at bats everyday for the regulars, if possible. And you want them to match up against guys they might be facing, rather than prospects. Same with pitchers, you want them to face the meat of a team rather than the future, see how they handle it. And like Tyler Duffey in his apst start, you get into trouble, but you need to show how you adapt and get out of trouble (Nolasco has to be inthe same boat.)

 

I like the notes about Luke Hughes. When making a decision on, say, backup catcher...do you go with the hot Hicks who may have more limited at bats in the beginning of the season and let the more seasoned Murphy start at Rochester, or what.

 

Of course, having spots to play with on the 40-man is important. Hate to see anyone go on the 60-day just to open up a spot. And you do risk losing guys, which is why decisions on Arcia, Santana and especially Tonkin will asat until the end days.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Agreed.  I bet if you ask Kepler, he believes he's as good as anyone in the Twins outfield - including Sano.  I bet he believes his skill set is more complete (5 toolish).  He won't be happy staying in AAA waiting for an injury.  I'm also sure Twins don't care about feelings.  They have to protect their small market views and hold on to in house talent as long as they can.

 

Kepler is about as humble as it gets so he would never say that but he gained a lot of confidence with the success last year and wants to build on that. That said, it's good that he can get time in AAA and see how it goes. He understands. He's very smart, and he admits there are things he can (and hopefully will) get better at. He'd rather be in the big leagues, but having never played in AAA, he isn't going to be unhappy about being there. 

[David HK]

Captions on photos, especially when discussing unfamiliar players, would be a good idea.  Great to credit the photog, that's not done enough, but who are those 2 guys?