Article: Trending (March 10)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Every Thursday morning, you can count on coming here to get a snapshot of which players are trending up or trending down within the organization. Obviously statistics will play a part, but a week is a small sample and spring training stats are… well, pretty pointless. Anecdotal and observational accounts will also help shape this segment.

 

Here’s a look at five players whom you may have changed your tune about since seven days ago.

 

Phil Hughes, starting pitcher

 

Since joining the Twins in 2014, Phil Hughes has set an all-time baseball record (11.63 SO/BB - only 16 walks - in 2014), signed an expensive extension and then turned around and led the league in home runs allowed the following year. Everyone who follows the Twins and even Hughes himself would admit that last year was a bad year. Hughes missed seven starts due to various hip and back ailments. The velocity on Hughes’ fastball dropped from 92.0 to 90.7. He swing-and-miss percent dropped from 8.9% to 5.5%.

 

Recognizing that he needed to get back to his 2014 form, Hughes reported to camp 15 pounds lighter than when he left last October. The dividends appear to be paying off already.

 

Through two spring training starts, Hughes has pitched five innings, surrendering only one hit (which was erased by a double-play). He’s thrown 45 pitches*, with 29 of them reaching the strike zone. This percentage (64.4%) is almost a 10% decrease from his 2014 season, but it’s early in the season and the sample is admittedly tiny. Though he hasn’t recorded a swing-and-miss pitch to this point, he’s passed the “eye-test” through two brief appearances. That’s progress over anything that Hughes did in 2015.

 

Trending: Up (and toward the Opening Day nod?)

 

Tyler Duffey, starting pitcher

 

It was going to take something “fairly significant” for Duffey to work his way out of the rotation. His first start was OK, though he did walk a batter which is slightly out of character. The start he made against Toronto on Tuesday was significantly worse: a five-run first inning that included a walk and a home run. He settled down and finished his outing with a 1-2-3 seven-pitch third inning. But not before issuing his second walk of the day in the second inning.

 

I’m as big of a Duffey supporter as anyone and I believe he’ll still end up in the rotation, but a string of poor starts, coupled with dominant outings by the other members of the rotation competition, could make heading to Rochester more likely.

 

At this point, though, let’s just chalk it up as one bad inning.

 

Trending: Slightly down

 

Oswaldo Arcia, outfield

 

2015 was an abysmal year for Ozzie. After starting the year as the Opening Day right-fielder, he fell so far that he finished it with a sub.-200 batting average in the minor leagues.

 

Arcia spent his winter in Fort Myers working his skills and his body back into shape. So far, the work is paying off. After drawing only four walks in 65 plate appearances with the Twins in 2015, Arcia drew three walks on Monday and showed some defensive chops in both right field on Sunday and left field on Monday. The out-of-options Venezuelan will need to stick as a left-handed bench bat and he appears to be on his way to earning that spot.

 

Trending: Slightly up

 

Miguel Sano, right fielder

 

We know about the big bat and the big arm. What we’re not sure about is the outfield glove on his left paw and the mobility to use it productively. Don’t get me wrong, Sano is athletic enough to play the outfield. But will the experiment work?

 

He’s turned a semi-routine line out in a double. (Sorry, Ricky.) He’s quadruple-skipped a throw to the cut-off man. But he’s made all of the clearly routine plays and threw out Troy Tulowitzki trying to leg out a double on Tuesday. Oh, and he also hit his first spring training home run as well.

 

Trending: Steady (but better than expected)

 

Byung Ho Park, designated hitter

 

Well, those two blasts certainly helps you forget about all the early swings and misses, doesn’t it?

 

Trending: Up (up and out of here)

 

BONUS BATTLE:

 

Ricky Nolasco vs Tommy Milone, starting rotation

 

Both have pitched well in their most recent outing, but there’s really only room for one in the rotation. Milone isn’t built for a bullpen success and is making $4.5 million; Nolasco, could be successful in the bullpen, and has two years and $25 million left on his deal. Oh, and Nolasco isn’t going to be too happy if he has to go to the bullpen. He probably isn’t alone in feeling the way he does, but not every player (or his agent) publicly states how they feel. Regardless of how this plays out, Nolasco is going to get his money. The Twins could remove Nolasco from the roster, but he would have to consent to a minor-league assignment. If he won’t go to the bullpen, there’s no reason to think he’d go to Rochester. So the question that remains, will he earn his money as a team player (in the bullpen) or will he force the Twins to make a move? (Call the Dodgers.)

 

Trending: Towards Tommy

 

Obviously, those are only five players out of a number that could be mentioned. (Both good and not-so-good.) Who do you have trending one way or the other?

* Spring Training stats are much more difficult to come by, so these stats are based on what Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has reported on Twitter.

 

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[REPETE]

As for Hughsey (thanks Gardy), what's his velocity?  I know it's early, but is he topping 90?

I wouldn't be surprised if Duffy starts in AAA, and they give both Milone & Nolasco a spot in the rotation, both with extremely short leashes.

[markos]

I second REPETE's question: what is Hughes's velocity looking like?

 

I have to disagree with the UP assessment of Hughes. For me, the fact that he hasn't gotten a single strikeout - or even a single swing-and-miss - makes it seem like he should be trending down, not up.

[Linus]

I disagree that Duffy is a lock. People are giving way to much credit to a relatively short stretch of success last year. Milone was arguably the Twins best pitcher last year. The battle is between Nolasco and Duffy

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree that Duffy is a lock. People are giving way to much credit to a relatively short stretch of success last year. Milone was arguably the Twins best pitcher last year. The battle is between Nolasco and Duffy

Duffey's not a lock but Molitor said he was the favorite going into Spring Training.

[tobi0040]

Ricky's agents comments are pretty funny.  Did he miss the 5.51 ERA in 2014 across 159 IP? And his comments about not going quietly to the pen, what a joke. 

 

If I ever get a huge payday and wildly under-produce, I am not going to make demands or act like a child. It would be nobody else's fault but mine.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

As for Hughsey (thanks Gardy), what's his velocity?  I know it's early, but is he topping 90?

I wouldn't be surprised if Duffy starts in AAA, and they give both Milone & Nolasco a spot in the rotation, both with extremely short leashes.

 

From what I've seen, the radar hasn't been on/accurate at either of his starts. 

 

He's been so efficient that he's needed to finish his "outings" by throwing more pitches in the bullpen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

From what I've seen, the radar hasn't been on/accurate at either of his starts. 

 

He's been so efficient that he's needed to finish his "outings" by throwing more pitches in the bullpen. 

Listening on the radio, he's been throwing strikes though I'd love to hear a velo reading on his starts (even though it may not tell us much). But, those will come soon enough.

 

Right now, I don't know if we should be concerned with him not missing bats... It's still so early in the spring that not all pitchers, particularly veterans, are trying to miss bats. Each guy has his own routine and throwing heat that misses bats may not be a priority for Hughes at the moment. He could be doing a dozen things: working on a pitch, tuning command, setting his mechanics, etc.

 

If he's not missing bats after March 20th, then it's time to show some concern. By that time, pitchers will be preparing for regular season games and will be mixing and matching pitches more like they would in a regular game.

[Mike Sixel]

I just don't take anything* seriously at this point......I think pitchers are still working on hitting certain spots, new pitches, etc.......I don't think they really pitch to the situation this early in the year.

 

*maybe park's power....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just don't take anything* seriously at this point......I think pitchers are still working on hitting certain spots, new pitches, etc.......I don't think they really pitch to the situation this early in the year.

 

*maybe park's power....

Yeah, it's not uncommon to see a pitcher throw one batter all fastballs and then two batters later, only throw breaking balls.

 

Obviously, that's not a viable regular season game strategy. Just like hitters, pitchers are getting their feel back for the game and we don't really know their status until ST is nearly over (and by that time, SSS noise makes the data largely irrelevant).

[terrydactyls]

If a guy can throw five innings giving up only one hit, I really don't give a darn about "missing bats". I would like to see him hit 27 consecutive bats if the result is a couple of singles followed by double plays. Missed bats are more important for relievers coming in with runners on base. But even then, I have nothing against a double play. Missed bats are sexy but not manditory.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If a guy can throw five innings giving up only one hit, I really don't give a darn about "missing bats". I would like to see him hit 27 consecutive bats if the result is a couple of singles followed by double plays. Missed bats are more important for relievers coming in with runners on base. But even then, I have nothing against a double play. Missed bats are sexy but not manditory.

Eh, they're kinda mandatory, actually. A pitcher has very little control over the ~30% of batted balls that result in a runner standing safely on base.

 

Less batted balls in play, less runners on base. There's a very high correlation between missed bats, strikeouts, and pitcher success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If a guy can throw five innings giving up only one hit, I really don't give a darn about "missing bats". I would like to see him hit 27 consecutive bats if the result is a couple of singles followed by double plays. Missed bats are more important for relievers coming in with runners on base. But even then, I have nothing against a double play. Missed bats are sexy but not manditory.

If you are just looking at the results of a perfect game in hindsight, of course it doesn't matter how the outs were achieved. But as Brock points out, the predictive power of missed bats and strikeouts is much greater than contact and balls in play, and that kind of predictive power is what we are particularly interested in when evaluating spring training performances.

Edited March 10, 2016 by spycake

[Blake]

 

If you are just looking at the results of a perfect game in hindsight, of course it doesn't matter how the outs were achieved. But as Brock points out, the predictive power of missed bats and strikeouts is much greater than contact and balls in play, and that kind of predictive power is what we are particularly interested in when evaluating spring training performances.

 

 

Eh, strikeouts are fascist.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

* Spring Training stats are much more difficult to come by, so these stats are based on what Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has reported on Twitter.

 

Actually, spring training stats are on the Twins official website. Push Stats.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

* Spring Training stats are much more difficult to come by, so these stats are based on what Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has reported on Twitter.

 

Actually, spring training stats are on the Twins official website. Push Stats.

 

If we go by that, Hughes has thrown 16 pitches in five innings. Read.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Actually, spring training stats are on the Twins official website. Push Stats.

Pitch count stuff doesn't work for spring training.  MLB Gameday doesn't track each pitch in spring training, only the final result of each plate appearance.

 

It was driving me mad last spring, because people were claiming Trevor May wasn't stretched out enough to start based on his spring training Gameday pitch counts which were absurdly low... they really shouldn't publish them if they aren't working.

 

For other stats, yeah MLB is fine, B-Ref has 'em too.

[terrydactyls]

Eh, they're kinda mandatory, actually. A pitcher has very little control over the ~30% of batted balls that result in a runner standing safely on base.

 

Less batted balls in play, less runners on base. There's a very high correlation between missed bats, strikeouts, and pitcher success.

 

30% of all balls that hit a bat end up with a runner ending up safely on base???? Doubtful. F any pitcher had this line, he should retire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

30% of all balls that hit a bat end up with a runner ending up safely on base???? Doubtful. F any pitcher had this line, he should retire.

30% of all balls hit in play, yes (BABIP).  MLB league average was 29.9% last year.  Gerrit Cole was at 30.8%, Jordan Zimmermann was at 30.6%, etc.

[alarp33]

 

30% of all balls that hit a bat end up with a runner ending up safely on base???? Doubtful. F any pitcher had this line, he should retire.

 

Ummmm, yes.  30% of all balls hit into play end up with a batter on base. Actually maybe more if you include errors (which also lead to a man on base)

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/team-batting-average-of-balls-in-play-babip/2015/

 

 

Edited March 10, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't it even higher, since a HR doesn't count?

 

Right, a HR does not count for BABIP calculations, so if you don't strike a guy out, he either is on 1-3rd, 29% of the time, or hits a HR......

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the subject of spring training stats, one of the most useful (to me) seems to be B-Ref's "OppQual" which is average "quality" of opponent faced.  Tells if you are facing more scrubs than MLB regulars, and generally indicates who is getting first crack at opportunities (and likely has an inside track at making the opening day roster).

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2016.shtml

 

At the moment, ranking by OppQual with a playing time threshold of 1 IP or 7 PA, it almost exactly matches the commonly projected Twins opening day rosters, with exceptions around Sano/Park who had a priority on getting early work in regardless of opponent quality.  It even seems to be capturing what I expected for the bullpen competition, that Reed/Burdi/Chargois/Melotakis in particular have little chance of making the club.

 

Note that B-Ref spring training stats seem to lag a day or so behind MLB.

[70charger]

30% of all balls that hit a bat end up with a runner ending up safely on base???? Doubtful. F any pitcher had this line, he should retire.

Go ahead and leave out the foul balls.

[Brock Beauchamp]

30% of all balls that hit a bat end up with a runner ending up safely on base???? Doubtful. F any pitcher had this line, he should retire.

Uh, yes. 30% of ALL balls in play end up with a runner on base. There are literally millions of data points to prove it.

[Darius]

Duffy has the best pure stuff out of everyone who could realistically open the season in the rotation. (Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone).

 

He and Sano basically kept the team in the hunt late in the year.

 

It's would be his first full season in the MLB, and was a concerted college closer just a couple of years ago. IMO, that means there is much room for improvement deeper in games (especially relative the old Donkeys that fill out the rest of the rotation - with the exception of Gibson).

 

He's the only guy that will sniff the rotation that can get a strikeout.

 

Considering all of those things, for a team that fancies itself a young team ready to break out, how can you not put him in the rotation and be taken seriously as a baseball guy (looking at you, TR).

 

Honestly, I think it's a joke that we could have a real rotation, consisting of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Hughes, and Duffy.....and instead they're running out guys like Nolasco and Milone. I won't even get started on the mismanagement of the bullpen....or the outfield (just watch Sweeney get a ridiculous amount of innings).

 

It's time to show TR the door, and get someone in here who isn't living in the dead ball era. The guy's track record is absolutely horrendous (the hilarious 90s, sitting in hands and pissing away good teams in the '00s, and going senile and playing guys off the street in a brand new stadium in the '10s, some of the worst trades and signing in recent MLB history)....yet he still gets the benefit of the doubt from most fans. He, flat out, is a bad General Manager, and would have been canned years ago by any other self-respecting franchise.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Honestly, I think it's a joke that we could have a real rotation, consisting of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Hughes, and Duffy.....and instead they're running out guys like Nolasco and Milone. 
 

 

The rotation WILL consist of those five early in the year. But it shouldn't start like that. Don't trade 12 days of service for a full year. 

 

The Marlins traded Jose Fernandez's age-26 season for five innings on the seventh day of the 2013 season. (He made his second start on the 13th day of the season; they lost the game.) Had he made his first start on the 13th day of the season, the Marlins would control him through 2019. 

 

If TR does bring Berrios up for the first 12 days, that would be roster mismanagement.

[alarp33]

 

The rotation WILL consist of those five early in the year. But it shouldn't start like that. Don't trade 12 days of service for a full year. 

 

The Marlins traded Jose Fernandez's age-26 season for five innings on the seventh day of the 2013 season. (He made his second start on the 13th day of the season; they lost the game.) Had he made his first start on the 13th day of the season, the Marlins would control him through 2019. 

 

If TR does bring Berrios up for the first 12 days, that would be roster mismanagement.

 

With 2 off days, Monday the 18th would be the 1st time the Twins need a 5th start, I believe. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The rotation WILL consist of those five early in the year. But it shouldn't start like that. Don't trade 12 days of service for a full year. 

 

The Marlins traded Jose Fernandez's age-26 season for five innings on the seventh day of the 2013 season. (He made his second start on the 13th day of the season; they lost the game.) Had he made his first start on the 13th day of the season, the Marlins would control him through 2019. 

 

If TR does bring Berrios up for the first 12 days, that would be roster mismanagement.

Jeremy, don't you think the fact that no baseball team has ever held down a top pitching prospect for 12 days at the start of the season suggest that maybe we're over-valuing that extra year of control for pitchers?

 

Fernandez (predictably) getting hurt probably suppresses his pre-FA salaries enough to offset much of whatever premium the Marlins or whoever will have to pay to buy out his first FA year.  Had he struggled in his return like Liriano, they could have optioned him and recovered some service time too.

 

Teams have been holding back elite position player prospects for some time now, and have only very rarely done it for pitchers (most notably, Gerrit Cole was called up after the super 2 threshold date).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With 2 off days, Monday the 18th would be the 1st time the Twins need a 5th start, I believe. 

Not quite.  The first "off day" is the second day of the season.  So as early as April 10th, you would need a 5th starter, or have your #2 start on short rest.

[alarp33]

 

Not quite.  The first "off day" is the second day of the season.  So as early as April 10th, you would need a 5th starter, or have your #2 start on short rest.

 

Yeah you're right, I looked at that wrong earlier.  Point remains, Berrios should not be on the opening day roster.