Article: Looking Forward By Looking Back (2012 Draft)

[Seth Stohs]

The 2012 MLB draft was very interesting for the Minnesota Twins and their fans. They had the second overall pick after their first of four straight 90-loss seasons. They had a couple of extra picks due to the loss of Michael Cuddyer to free agency. They had six of the first 100 picks. It was an opportunity for them to gain much-needed talent in the organization.

 

While a large theme from that 2012 draft was the Twins selection of several college relief pitchers, the Twins really got more than that.Generally speaking, if a team can find two or three big leaguers out of any draft, it is a successful draft. It is difficult to get to the big leagues. There are so many levels to work through while trying to develop. There are injuries and there are upper-level breaking pitches. The Twins have already seen big league time from two members of that 2012 class, but there is a lot more to come in terms of high-potential big league contributors. There are no guarantees, of course, but this could go down as one of the best Twins drafts since 1989.

 

With that second-overall pick and shortstop Carlos Correa off the board, the Twins selected the best athlete in the draft, Byron Buxton. In 2013, he played at Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers and was named Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year. A smorgasbord of injuries cost him most of his 2014 season. He came back in 2015 and was inconsistent for two months in AA Chattanooga, but he received the big league call in mid-June. It wasn’t a great showing for Buxton, but despite those struggles, scouts, prospect profilers and the organization still believe that he has huge potential. He remains the favorite to be the Twins Opening Day centerfielder and even if he isn’t, he will be soon and for a long time. He has All Star potential.

 

The Twins had the second pick in the supplemental phase of the 1st round 32nd overall due to the loss of Michael Cuddyer via free agency. With the selection, the Twins made Jose Berrios the highest-drafted high school pitcher from Puerto Rico. While the Twins were thrilled to draft him, most thought he would be drafted dozens of picks later. Berrios has been the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year the last two years. He has really dominated in High-A, AA and AAA. His prospect status nationally has skyrocketed, and he is now considered one of the top five or six pitching prospects in the game. Many believed the Twins should have called him up late in 2015, but he is certain to get that call sometime early in 2016 and the hope is he can be a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for years to come.

 

Ten picks later, the Twins had another supplement selection because of losing Jason Kubel to free agency. With that pick, they chose RHP Luke Bard from Georgia Tech. Unfortunately Bard pitched very little between 2012 and 2014 due to a variety of arm injuries. He returned in June, pitching in Cedar Rapids. He was able to finish the season staying healthy. He also was working in the mid-90s with his fastball and has good secondary pitches. In 2016, he is a guy to watch as he has the potential to move up a couple of levels.

 

With their second-round draft pick (#63 overall) the Twins took LHP Mason Melotakis. He was given some opportunity to start. Early in the 2014 season, he was moved full-time to the bullpen. However, he experienced elbow issues and later had Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2015, but when he returned for Instructs in November, he was reportedly clocked at 97 mph. He was added to the 40-man roster. While he is a long-shot to make the Opening Day roster, most believe that he has the ability to be a shut-down lefty reliever, and soon.

 

The Twins had a second, second-round draft pick, 72nd overall. They received the Rockies’ second-round pick (along with the previously mentioned supplemental pick) for Michael Cuddyer. With that pick, the Twins took RH RP JT Chargois from Rice University. As you know, Chargois missed all of 2013 and 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2015 and pitched quite well in Ft. Myers and in Chattanooga where he was the closer when the Lookouts won the Southern League title. He frequently hit 100 mph on the radar gun and has two other plus-pitches. He was added to the 40-man roster and whether he makes the Opening Day roster or not, he could be the first reliever called up to the Twins when needed.

 

The Twins also had the 98th overall pick, and with their third-round pick they chose Adam Brett Walker. He’s been discussed to the extreme here at Twins Daily, so we won’t get into it all again. However, he has led his league in home runs and RBIs in each of his three full minor league seasons and strikeouts the last two years. He hit 31 homers, drove in 106 and struck out 195 times last year in Chattanooga. He was added to the 40-man roster in November. It is possible we’ll be seeing Walker late in 2016. He has a lot of improvements to make and yet we still shouldn’t completely overlook his power potential.

 

With their fourth-round pick, they took Zack Jones who has had an up-and-down career with the Twins. When healthy, he has shown the ability to be a good late-inning reliever due to a mid-90s fastball and a good slider. Control has been an issue. He also has had a couple of injuries and other health issues. He is currently in the Milwaukee Brewers minor league camp as a Rule 5 pick. He has had some shoulder issues this spring, followed by a bout with the flu, so he is yet to throw a bullpen. It is possible that he could be returned to the Twins at some point.

 

With their fifth-round pick (160th overall), the Twins went back to Rice and took co-closer (at Rice) Tyler Duffey. He consistently worked through the Twins system as a starter, pitching well, yet flying a little under most radars. He debuted with the Twins last year against the Blue Jays. It didn’t go well, and he was sent back to Rochester. He made one start for the Red Wings before coming back to the Twins where he was arguably the Twins' best starting pitcher over his final nine starts. His name was penciled into the #4 spot in the rotation coming into spring training though he could spend a little more time in Rochester as well. However, we had seen that Duffey and his curve ball can be a solid Major League starter.

 

In the 10th round, the Twins selected RHP DJ Baxendale out of Arkansas. He experienced a lot of early success in the two levels of A ball in 2013. 2014 was filled with injury and struggles. In 2015, he again missed some starts but experienced some success. He will continue to start in 2016, likely getting to AAA at some point, but I include him in this list still because if he doesn’t make it as a starter he has some stuff that could make him a solid MLB reliever. He generally has had good control. As a starter he works in the low-90s, so it’s possible as a reliever he could reach to the mid-90s. He also has a good slider.

 

In the 11th round, the Twins took a skinny left-hander from the University of Kentucky. Taylor Rogers is still very skinny but he has proven durable as a starter throughout the minors. He was the Twins Daily minor league starting pitcher of the year in 2013 and has moved up a level a year since. He was a solid starter in Rochester and could probably be a back-of-the-rotation starter for many MLB teams. Right now he’d probably be #9 on the Twins starting pitching depth chart. He’s being used as a reliever in spring training and given a real shot at an Opening Day job. He has dominated left-handers in the minor leagues and could have a long, solid career in the big leagues working out of the bullpen.

 

7th Round: Jorge Fernandez was drafted out of high school in Puerto Rico. At 6-3 and about 200 pounds, he is a very good athlete for a catcher. He has struggled throwing out runners and spent more time playing other positions in 2015 in Cedar Rapids. It sounds like he will be moving to first base.

 

12th Round: Alex Muren reached AA last year. While he has never been a big strikeout guy, he has been a ground ball machine. Reports from Ft. Myers last year indicated that he was throwing harder than previously, sitting 92-94 and even touching 97 on occasion. He’s still one to watch.

 

20th Round: Zach Larson. The Twins signed Byron Buxton for just shy of his slot position as the #2 pick. With the extra money, the Twins were able to sign another high school outfielder. He played quite well in 2013 at the rookie leagues. He has spent the last two seasons in Cedar Rapids where he has spent a lot of time on the disabled list.

 

35th Round: Jared Wilson was an All-Star for Cedar Rapids in 2015. He spent the first half of the season as a starter before moving back to the bullpen in the second half. He will likely spend 2016 in Ft. Myers.

 

34th Round: Bryan Haar has played third base and first base in his time with the Twins organization. He played at Ft. Myers in 2015 though he missed a lot of time with a couple of injuries.

 

There are 13 members of the Twins 2012 draft remaining in the Twins organization. While that is not a large number, you can see that there are a couple of guys with all-star upsides who will be contributing soon. There are a couple of starting pitchers and several relief pitcher options who can be key contributors to the Twins, several ready for the majors in 2016.

 

Draft picks are really hard to judge for a decade but this class has huge potential for the Twins. Here is a quick look at the number of players drafted by the Twins each year who have remained in the organization the whole time:

• 2014 - 25
• 2013 - 20
• 2012 - 13
• 2011 - 10 (Levi Michael (1), Travis Harrison (1s), Corey Williams (3), Matt Summers (4), Dereck Rodriguez (6), Jason Wheeler (8), Brett Lee (10), Tim Shibuya (23), David Hurlbut (28), Stephen Wickens (33)
• 2010 - 6 (Alex Wimmers (1), Niko Goodrum (2), Pat Dean (3), Eddie Rosario (4), Logan Darnell (6), Ryan O’Rourke (12))
• 2009 - 2 (Kyle Gibson, Brian Dozier)
• 2008 - 1 (Michael Tonkin)
• 2005-2007 - 0
• 2004 - 2 (Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins)
• 2002-2003 - 0
• 2001 - 1 (Joe Mauer)

Again, the draft is a bit of a crapshoot from year to year. As I mentioned earlier, if you can draft, sign and develop one or two big leaguers from any draft, you should be happy.

 

Despite several injuries to many of the 2012 picks, it is very possible that we could see as many as seven players from that draft play for the Twins in 2016.

 

CAN THE 2012 DRAFT CLASS MATCH THE 1989 DRAFT CLASS?

 

I mentioned that 1989 Twins draft class. Eight players drafted by the Twins that year signed and debuted with the Twins. Chuck Knoblauch (1), Denny Neagle (3), Scott Erickson (4), Marty Cordova (10), Dan Mastellar (11), Mike Trombley (14), George Tsamis (15), Denny Hocking (52) all debuted with the Twins. Erickson debuted in mid-1990. Knoblauch was the Rookie of the Year in 1991. Marty Cordova was Rookie of the Year in 1994. Trombley had a long, solid career with eight seasons with the Twins to start his career. Denny Hocking was a utility infielder for the Twins for parts of 11 seasons. Mastellar and Tsamis had cups of coffee. Neagle debuted with the Twins in 1991 before being traded to Pittsburgh that offseason.

 

Can the 2012 Twins draft match that 1989 draft? Obviously we need 15 to 20 years to fully know that answer. Can Byron Buxton be as good as Chuck Knoblauch was the first seven years of his career? Can JO Berrios have the kind of immediate impact for the Twins that Scott Erickson did in 1990 and 1991, and can he sustain that success? Cordova was worth 5.9 bWAR for the Twins in his first two seasons, and he was worth a total of 5.7 bWAR over the five years he spent with the Twins. Could Adam Brett Walker provided similar value? And how many of those extremely talented relievers will be able to match the longevity of Trombley. Trombley also had three seasons with bWAR between 1.9 and 2.2.

Time will tell, but there is no question that the Twins and the fans are excited about the talent of this 2012 draft class.

 

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[GMinTraining]

 

Adam Brett Walker. He’s been discussed to the extreme here at Twins Daily, so we won’t get into it all again. However, he has led his league in Home Runs, RBI and strikeouts each of his three full minor league seasons.

 

Just for the record he didn't lead the league in strikeouts in 2013 (was actually 18th).  Harrison actually led team that year.  More and more people say "all three" (HR, RBI, SO) because it flows easier, but isn't even close to true.  Tied in 2014 and unfortunately blew the door down in 2015.

 

I remember when the entire 2012 draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory by experts.  Now we talk about it being one of the best in years.  I agree with the greatness potential [buxton; Berrios; Chargois; Duffy; alone]  Will be glad when they finally do play as regulars.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Just for the record he didn't lead the league in strikeouts in 2013 (was actually 18th).  Harrison actually led team that year.  More and more people say "all three" (HR, RBI, SO) because it flows easier, but isn't even close to true.  Tied in 2014 and unfortunately blew the door down in 2015.

 

 

 

 

Good reminder... thank you and I've corrected this.

[Mike Sixel]

That is two great draft classes, wow.

 

At least they are no longer trying to make Bard a starter......

[big dog]

Wow.  Two ROYs in one draft class.  That must not happen very often.  The Dodgers and the A's had 3 in a row, but none of them were from the same draft.

 

-edit, the Dodgers actually had 4 in a row (Sax, Valenzuela, Howe, Sutcliffe), drafted in '78, undrafted FA, '79, and '74.  The A's had Weiss, McGwire, Canseco, drafted in '85, '84, and '82.

Edited March 10, 2016 by big dog

[howieramone2]

Great job by TR and the front office!

[alarp33]

 

 

 

I remember when the entire 2012 draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory by experts.  Now we talk about it being one of the best in years.  I agree with the greatness potential [buxton; Berrios; Chargois; Duffy; alone]  Will be glad when they finally do play as regulars.

 

I literally cannot find one place that said the Twins 2012 draft was "one of the weakest in recent memory". They drafted the consensus best player in the draft, most liked Berrios, who was just a bit of an unknown... and they went heavy on college relievers, but good ones.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I literally cannot find one place that said the Twins 2012 draft was "one of the weakest in recent memory". They drafted the consensus best player in the draft, most liked Berrios, who was just a bit of an unknown... and they went heavy on college relievers, but good ones.  

 

ENTIRE draft, as in, all of the players taken by all of the teams......

[sane16]

I remember when the entire 2012 draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory by experts.

The ACTUAL QUOTE

"The 2000 draft "is maybe the most comparable draft to this one," according to Mike Radcliff, Twins vice president of player personnel and the scouting director in 2000. It was considered one of the weakest in recent history"

The 2000 draft was so characterized by Radcliff (experts?), not the 2012 draft headed by Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Mark Appel, etc.

[alarp33]

 

ENTIRE draft, as in, all of the players taken by all of the teams......

 

Not sure I understand? I know I didn't list all 40 some players drafted. My point was no one in the "industry" called the ENTIRE draft class one of the worst in recent memory.  Drafting 2nd and getting the top player kinda takes care of any of that talk... 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure I understand? I know I didn't list all 40 some players drafted. My point was no one in the "industry" called the ENTIRE draft class one of the worst in recent memory.  Drafting 2nd and getting the top player kinda takes care of any of that talk... 

 

I was just saying what the person said........not what I think or not. No idea if that was said or not.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not sure I understand? I know I didn't list all 40 some players drafted. My point was no one in the "industry" called the ENTIRE draft class one of the worst in recent memory.  Drafting 2nd and getting the top player kinda takes care of any of that talk... 

 

Heading into the 2012 draft, most 'experts' felt that the draft class was weaker than many in recent years.

 

The Twins draft was obviously good just because of Buxton and having the #2 pick. There were very talented individuals but a feeling that the draft class across baseball (meaning draftable players in high school, college, junior college, etc) was thought to be down.

[bird]

IIRC, the Twins received decent, but not stellar grades from the experts who handed out team-by-team grades. Bleacher Report, I think, gave them a B+, and that might've been the high mark from the graders.

 

My recollection is that the grades on TD were decidedly more mixed. Go figure.

 

As for the strength of the draft class itself, I think Seth is right in saying it was regard as being a little weak, at least depth-wise.

Edited March 10, 2016 by birdwatcher

[clutterheart]

 

Great job by TR and the front office!

 

Well....To get those picks Ryan tanked the last 3 years, Twins fans had to suffer through 3 years of bad baseball, and the FO threw the excitement the new stadium generated into the the incinerator.  

 

But at least they did a good job on who they picked and developing them, now just have to take these youngsters and put them on the team.

[alarp33]

 

Heading into the 2012 draft, most 'experts' felt that the draft class was weaker than many in recent years.

 

 

Okkk, maybe I misunderstood the original post.  I thought he was saying industry experts were saying the TWINS entire draft class was thought of as very weak, post 2012 draft.  Now that you say that, I get he was referencing the 2012 draft in general, not the Twins

[alarp33]

 

I was just saying what the person said........not what I think or not. No idea if that was said or not.

 

Yup, I get what you meant now... I think I misunderstood the 1st post.  Entire = entire mlb draft.. I thought entire = Entire Twins Draft Class was thought of as very poor. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Wow.  Two ROYs in one draft class.  That must not happen very often.  The Dodgers and the A's had 3 in a row, but none of them were from the same draft.

 

-edit, the Dodgers actually had 4 in a row (Sax, Valenzuela, Howe, Sutcliffe), drafted in '78, undrafted FA, '79, and '74.  The A's had Weiss, McGwire, Canseco, drafted in '85, '84, and '82.

Actually, the Dodgers had 5 ROY in a row from 92-96 - Eric Karros, Mike Piazza, Raul Mondesi, Hideo NOmo and Todd Hollandsworth

[GMinTraining]

 

ENTIRE draft, as in, all of the players taken by all of the teams......

Thank you - Sorry for the confusion.   Experts said entire MLB draft was weak in 2012.  I love the Twins 2012 draft class.  I actually think the  2012 draft class across the MLB will turn up some great players down the road.  [Correa; Buxton; Giolito; Seager; Stroman; Wacha; and that's just the first round].  Shows you what the experts know - Lol

Comp round brought you - Berrios; Piscotty; Gallo; McCullers; and Winker.  The 2012 future is bright.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Less than 48 months after the fact, it's hard to envision this draft going better for the Twins. You have two elite prospects in Buxton and Berrios, an intriguing starter in Duffey, and a handful of wildcards in Walker, Chargois, Melotakis, etc.

 

So much talent in that list. So much.

[Lonestar]

From 2005-11, our draft classes yielded Tonkin, Gibson, Dozier, O'Rourke, and Rosario + Hicks and Revere. And with the exception of Sano (and Polanco and Kepler), our international signings have amounted to what?

Only 1 starting pitcher in all of those years. No wonder the Twins have been signing Hughes and Nolasco and Santana.

[howieramone2]

 

Well....To get those picks Ryan tanked the last 3 years, Twins fans had to suffer through 3 years of bad baseball, and the FO threw the excitement the new stadium generated into the the incinerator.  

 

But at least they did a good job on who they picked and developing them, now just have to take these youngsters and put them on the team.

Actually, that was TR's first draft back. Once again, great job by the only GM I am aware of who completely rebuilt a mid-market team in less than 4 years. For those still able to follow along, it is my belief few teams after becoming a contender still have a farm system loaded with talent, particularly at the top of the pipeline.

[Thrylos]

Bet DJ Hicks will be hurt if he looks at this writeup

 

Injuries aside, he can still make it to the show with higher chances than some of the other guys mentioned.  LH power bats are not a dime a dozen

[diehardtwinsfan]

Got to see a few of these guys in camp today.  ABW is a pretty nice guy.  He mentioned that it sounds like he'll be starting in AAA.  Not sure if that's what he heard from his bosses or just his own speculation (though it's pretty reasonable).