Ricky Implies He Won't Go Quietly to the Pen

[alarp33]

 

Not trying to put words into your mouth.  I think maybe I'm just not coming through clearly.

 

If he's worth the ~$8 mil risk for the Braves, the Twins would just as well hold on to him -- they're only risking the same ~$8 mil anyway if they view $18 mil as unrecoverable (which is what it would mean to ship him out with $18 mil attached).

 

I'll drop it, I think we've both had our say.

 

I'll drop it as well... but I gotta get one last point in. 

 

The Twins goal is to make the playoffs, which is why it might make less since to them than a team like Atlanta, to hold out hope he turns things around.  If he doesn't he turn things around, he may cost them games, and in turn cost them a playoff spot.  Atlanta (just an example), does not expect to be a contender

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins did seem to deal with this last year with Pelfrey, who only got his starting spot because of the Santana suspension. Pelfrey took the job and was OK last year which is exactly what I'm worried about here. I don't want a just "OK" Nolasco taking away a spot from a young guy with more promise. Still, the positive take is that Ryan didn't appear to be swayed by Pelfrey grousing, he was all but inked into the bullpen prior to the suspension.

TR wasn't swayed at that moment, but he did elect to option Milone to AAA for awhile, and then of course sent May to the pen, all while keeping Pelfrey in the rotation the entire year.  Both of those decisions could have been influenced by Pelfrey's earlier intransigence.

[Boom Boom]

The manager doesn't get final say over who makes the roster but he does have final say over which players play and how often.

 

And it's highly unlikely Duffey doesn't make the roster, which gives Molitor final say over where/when he pitches.

 

Everybody wants to win and I can't see a situation where Ryan asks Paul to play an inferior player so he can build trade deadline value.

I don't think it has anything to do with building trade value. It's about trying to wring as much out of Nolasco as they can before their hand is forced.

 

I'm also not convinced that Duffey, right now, is better than Nolasco. I know he was really good for a few weeks, but Mike Pelfrey was really good for a few weeks last year as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'll drop it as well... but I gotta get one last point in. 

 

The Twins goal is to make the playoffs, which is why it might make less since to them than a team like Atlanta, to hold out hope he turns things around.  If he doesn't he turn things around, he may cost them games, and in turn cost them a playoff spot.  Atlanta (just an example), does not expect to be a contender

Sure.  Although if he's really that likely to cost us wins, to the point that we're entertaining the idea of shipping him out with $18 mil, he's probably not all that likely to be a good bet of $8 mil even for a rebuilding club like the Braves.  Again, see Bud Norris and his 1 year, $2.5 mil contract.  Is Nolasco worth over 3 times the guaranteed cash as Norris right now?

[Thrylos]

Just for reference:

 

This is what happened when Pelfrey was assigned to the pen at the end of last spring training:

 

From there:

 

FORT MYERS, Fla. — Mike Pelfrey stopped short of asking for a trade Saturday after he was demoted to the bullpen, but the Twins right-hander made it clear he wouldn’t be opposed.

“Obviously, if some team realizes I’m healthy for the first time in years,” Pelfrey told the Pioneer Press, “and this is probably the best I’ve felt and thinks I can help them, let’s do it. I think I showed them that I could start. If it happens, great. Let’s go.”

 

and 

 

“I know what I was told in December. I don’t know what happened,” Pelfrey said. “I know one thing that didn’t happen is I didn’t get outpitched. I don’t know what happened from what I was told. I was told it was an open competition supposedly, and at the time it was, ‘We’re going to give you an opportunity.’ I don’t know what happened in between.”

 

Same thing.  They all do it. Nolasco is not the first one and he will not be the last one who does it.  

 

I just hope that Santana is not caught being juiced again...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Edwin Jackson comparison is interesting. Both Nolasco and Jackson signed 4 year deals (into their 30s) for about the same amount of money, both stunk it up for two years as a starter, the second year being worse than the first year, and now Nolasco enters his third year. 

 

Here is how Jackson was used in his third year: strictly relief, and mostly mop up duty. He made no starts. The Cubs were 4-19 in the games Jackson pitched in. Two of those wins were extra inning wins he pitched the 10th and 12th inning. The Cubs then released him in late July to clear roster space I assume. 

 

This is how I want/expect the Twins to use Nolasco. They aren't going to cut him right away. Maybe the best case scenario is that Nolasco is pressed into spot start duty and makes the best of it for a half dozen starts. He's just not good enough to catch fire and make himself appealing to any other organization for the salary he is owed. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am just going to assume that we have   dangled Ricky to every team probaly a few times. If he was a free agent he would likely get a minor league deal.  Therefore, we are kidding ourselves to think anyone will take salary back

Exactly.  What kind of guaranteed salary (if any) would Nolasco have gotten on the open market this winter?  Teams aren't going to cover any more of his salary than that, and possibly even less at this point since most clubs have already signed other similar pitchers/projects over the winter.

[Major League Ready]

 

You just illustrated why Nolasco is one of the few Twins players I really do not like. Little stuff like this just grates on me.

 

Ricky, the Twins have paid you ~$25m to put up Samuel Deduno numbers and get injured. Keep your mouth shut and pitch your way into the rotation.

The like button is just not adequate in this case.  I have another option for Ricky ... Release the Twins form your contract and go pitch wherever you like.  

[DaveW]

Worst free agent signing in twins history continues to get worse. Having a mopey overpaid selfish Nolasco in the bullpen isn't going to help matters at all.

 

Best thing that could happen would be he blows his arm out and spends the season on the DL.

 

Having him and his crap attitude on the 25 man roster is a mistake.

 

Id be looking to unload him to any team that would take him, I'd even want the twins to pick up 90% of the contract.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Edwin Jackson comparison is interesting. Both Nolasco and Jackson signed 4 year deals (into their 30s) for about the same amount of money, both stunk it up for two years as a starter, the second year being worse than the first year, and now Nolasco enters his third year. 

 

Here is how Jackson was used in his third year: strictly relief, and mostly mop up duty. He made no starts. The Cubs were 4-19 in the games Jackson pitched in. Two of those wins were extra inning wins he pitched the 10th and 12th inning. The Cubs then released him in late July to clear roster space I assume. 

 

This is how I want/expect the Twins to use Nolasco. They aren't going to cut him right away. Maybe the best case scenario is that Nolasco is pressed into spot start duty and makes the best of it for a half dozen starts. He's just not good enough to catch fire and make himself appealing to any other organization for the salary he is owed. 

Exactly.

 

 

The Cubs kept Jackson around as a mop-up man and insurance.  They were actually pretty healthy in the SP ranks, before July they had only used 6 different SP.  Interestingly, they did begin to use a few spot starter fill-ins in July, but not Jackson, and they released him shortly thereafter to reclaim the roster spot for the pennant race.

 

The Twins could do the same.  If we need more than 6 starters early in the year, you could call on Nolasco and see what happens.  If it gets to be July and we're still in the race and Nolasco isn't an asset as either a starter or reliever, you release him.  If we're out of the race anyway, you could keep him and repeat for 2017.  Or disable him if you suspect he's still hurt at any point along the way, of course.

[Platoon]

As I said earlier, I don't know if Nolasco can be moved before next offseason. Even this July is a stretch unless he's pitching out of his mind and at that point, he may be worth keeping the entire season.

And therein would lie a Twins weakness. They would keep him. And repeat the whole process again next year. Yes, an arguement could be made that he then becomes "worth" the money? My counter is, if he is worth the trade, trade him and move on. I will acknowledge that injuries and other unforeseens complicate this simplistic approach. But ya gotta start somewhere. Which is where I still think Duffey is going, somewhere in out state NY. You have one more mediocre Duffey start, and one more Nolasco gem (for him) and I will write the press release!

[Platoon]

This does come up a lot, but in fairness we simply don't know the inner politics/decisions for the Twins. In theory that is how it works.  The GM says these are your 25 guys and the manager plays them where he sees fit.  But I have long suspected Terry Ryan plays a bigger role than that.

 

My personal opinion is that when Gardy was let go and we were looking at managers, internal candidates such as Molitor and Doug M. were more likely because they were more likely to let Terry have his way on such decisions, versus say a Joe Madden who we never contacted.

 

A few examples are Sano to RF or May to the pen.  Sano was going to make the roster obviously and in theory Paul made the call.  I just think the reality it was at a minimum more of a joint discussion.

 

I totally understand that we have no way of solving this.  Hopefully we can all agree that we don't know for sure how these decisions are made.

I always thought there was a chance that Dougie might have been a little too stringent for Ryans taste. Ryan does not appear one to be open to lengthily discussion on a topic. Regardless, in the book Moneyball the author made it clear that major league teams are drafted and rostered by the GM. The manager makes due with what he is handed. I doubt Molly had a say in Sano playing OF. In fact even the spot, RF, was chosen for him. Molly was a Sano in LF guy, until Ryan made him a Sano in RF convert!

[ewen21]

I think this is as much about Terry Ryan as it is Nolasco.

 

Nolasco was demoted to the pen at the end of the 2013 season and he already strung together a number of weak seasons before he even arrived in LA.  What does Terry Ryan do?  He dumpster dives for yet another subpar free agent pitcher.  I don't recall anyone actually supporting this signing from day one.

 

Ryan needs to catch heat for this one.  Under his watch the Twins have not produced a decent starting pitcher in about a decade AND he has made some horrendous FA pitcher signings.  And yet.....the media praises the man.  It's actually insane

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nolasco was demoted to the pen at the end of the 2013 season

Not quite true.  Nolasco was scheduled to start the day after the 2013 season ended, so he made a tune-up relief appearance in a meaningless game 162 instead.

 

He got skipped in the NLDS as the Dodgers used only 3 starters, but that was more about the other Dodgers starters: thanks to off days, Greinke was available on full rest for a potential Game 5, so they opted to use Kershaw on short rest in Game 4, rather than potentially lose the series without Greinke starting a second game.

 

Nolasco went on to start Game 4 of the NLCS.  He didn't make any relief appearances in the postseason.

 

He was admittedly shaky in his last 3 starts of the regular season, and wasn't exactly trusted in the postseason, but I don't think your characterization of the situation is quite fair.

[ewen21]

 

Not quite true.  Nolasco was scheduled to start the day after the 2013 season ended, so he made a tune-up relief appearance in a meaningless game 162 instead.

 

He got skipped in the NLDS as the Dodgers used only 3 starters, but that was more about the other Dodgers starters: thanks to off days, Greinke was available on full rest for a potential Game 5, so they opted to use Kershaw on short rest in Game 4, rather than potentially lose the series without Greinke starting a second game.

 

Nolasco went on to start Game 4 of the NLCS.  He didn't make any relief appearances in the postseason.

 

He was admittedly shaky in his last 3 starts of the regular season, and wasn't exactly trusted in the postseason, but I don't think your characterization of the situation is quite fair

Is it fair for me to say Ryan's track record with starting pitchers is brutal?

[Teflon]

in 2013, Nolasco's most frequent pitch was a very good slider that induced a lot of ground balls and swings and misses. (Fangraphs) After coming to the Twins in 2014, either due to injury or very bad advice, his most frequently used pitch has been a below-average four-seam fastball hitters generally tee-up - although his slider was still effective when he was able to throw it.

 

If Nolasco is able to throw his slider again, he could be okay. If not, he has no value over replacement pitching.

[Thrylos]

 

Is it fair for me to say Ryan's track record with starting pitchers is brutal?

 

FTFY

 

Yes.

[LaBombo]

 

Is it fair for me to say Ryan's track record with starting pitchers is brutal?

 

If that's too much for some posters, maybe we could go with 'Ryan's track record with free agent pitchers has put him in a poor position to be objective about the potential advantages of signing free agent pitchers'.

[ewen21]

 

FTFY

 

Yes.

A more blunt and laconic statement works even better.

Thanks for that!

[ewen21]

 

If that's too much for some posters, maybe we could go with 'Ryan's track record with free agent pitchers has put him in a poor position to be objective about the potential advantages of signing free agent pitchers'.

The reasoning behind signing Pelfrey was "it's his second year off Tommy John"

 

I'd like to know his reasoning behind signing this guy.  If there was any at all

[Thrylos]

 

If that's too much for some posters, maybe we could go with 'Ryan's track record with free agent pitchers has put him in a poor position to be objective about the potential advantages of signing free agent pitchers'.

 

Maybe we should first make a list of all the free agent pitchers that Ryan has signed, so all of us can be objective on the subject...

 

FWIW, the first pitcher he brought in was Rich Roberson on a waiver claim

the second was Vince Horseman as a minor league free agent signing...

 

The first major league free agent he signed was 3 years into the job in 1997: then 36 year old Bob Tewksbury.   (I am ignoring the Rick Aguillera tap dance)

 

Second one. Same season.  32 year old Greg Swindell.

 

I can go on and on, but.... 

[DocBauer]

One....again...I liked Nolasco initially. The team was floundering and needed help. He wasn't my first choice, that was Kazmir, but I thought it was a solid move at the time.

 

It just hasn't worked out. It happens. To loosely paraphrase Bull Durham: "baseball is filled with bad moves (trades)". I absolutely hate May in the pen, though I get it, he helps a bunch for now, and the rotation has depth...but...COME ON. But I get it. But at a certain point in this situation, doesn't the money aspect have to be ignored?

 

I mean, the Twins have paid for 2 seasons of injury and poor/lousy performance. And no matter what, they are on the hook for 2 more seasoms, whether Nolasco is jnjured, or stinks, or performs well in whatever capacity. Right? And I get that you'd like to receive something positive to show for your investment, but unless Nolasco really, really cranks it up in big time fashion, is he really going to be better than and out perform Duffey, Milone and Berrios, (possibly May) at this point? All guys that weren't here when he was initially signed.

 

Forget cost, again, it's sunk, if you really think he makes the club better by being part of the pen over a second lefty, or a youngster like Pressly or Graham or whoever, then keep him and do it. You are the Twins...you are signing the checks...it's your sunk money...it's your team that you are supposed to be taking care of, and putting the best one on the field to compete. You tell him to pitch, in whatever capacity you want, or go home. Too much for a reliever? Yep. Too much on the hook to just dump him? Yep. But it's been this way for two years now already! Sooner or later, this just has to about what's best for the team on the field, and money has to be left out of it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The reasoning behind signing Pelfrey was "it's his second year off Tommy John"

 

I'd like to know his reasoning behind signing this guy.  If there was any at all

 

Worst pitching in the league might have had something to do with it.... and lest we forget, Nolasco wasn't exactly a bad option the year we signed him.  I'm not liking Nolasco right now, but I think we tend to get a bit revisionist in our history here.  It wasn't a good signing based on the results, but it was one of the better FA options out there.  There's a reason he got twice as much as Hughes did. 

 

This also gets into one of my big beefs with the idea that we just need to go out and sign a guy.  When you commit 48 million to a player over 4 years, said player doesn't get cut if he doesn't perform.  That's a reality with baseball that I think fans tend to forget.

[Platoon]

Maybe we should first make a list of all the free agent pitchers that Ryan has signed, so all of us can be objective on the subject...

 

FWIW, the first pitcher he brought in was Rich Roberson on a waiver claim

the second was Vince Horseman as a minor league free agent signing...

 

The first major league free agent he signed was 3 years into the job in 1997: then 36 year old Bob Tewksbury.   (I am ignoring the Rick Aguillera tap dance)

 

Second one. Same season.  32 year old Greg Swindell.

 

I can go on and on, but....

 

Hmmm,so far slightly underwhelming, but I just got up and I have all day. Let me know when you get to the good parts,I don't want to miss anything!

[lukeduke1980]

Let him pitch.  Just keep the leash nice and short...

[laloesch]

 

Let him pitch.  Just keep the leash nice and short...

 

Only if he earns it.  If he's terrible in ST as a starter or reliever off with his head.

[ewen21]

 

Worst pitching in the league might have had something to do with it.... and lest we forget, Nolasco wasn't exactly a bad option the year we signed him.  I'm not liking Nolasco right now, but I think we tend to get a bit revisionist in our history here.  

Nope, you can't say that if you are talking to me.  You don't know what I thought of the deal right away.  I hated it.  I hate signing veteran FA stop gap pitchers as a policy.  Ryan does this almost obsessively and it is no way to go, imo

[ewen21]

 

Maybe we should first make a list of all the free agent pitchers that Ryan has signed, so all of us can be objective on the subject...

 

 

Didn't Phil Mackey do a rundown of Ryan's FA starting pitcher signings last spring?

 

It's an atrocity.  What's worse is the starting pitching this team has raised on Ryan's watch.  Name me one starting pitcher that has done anything (that came through our system) since Garza was called up in September of '06.  Go look around the league and get back to me.

Ryan's record in this area is brutal.