Article: Who Will Be The Twins' 4th And 5th Outfielders?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I believe Arcia makes the roster unless something truly bizarre happens.

 

The same goes for Santana. I suspect the Twins are positioning him to be a super-utility guy, which is why they're playing him all over the diamond.

 

In fact, I think the Twins bench is almost a given:

 

Arcia

Santana

Murphy

Nunez

 

The only question in my mind is who gets the fifth spot (which is likely to be the starting CF position). Is it Buxton? Santana? Sweeney? And Buxton almost surely has the job by June 1st anyway.

[Old Twins Cap]

 

What's with all of this irrational love for Ryan Sweeney? He has a MLB OPS of .713 and minor league OPS of .765.

 

Arcia's MLB OPS is .741 and his minor league OPS is .875. He had more HRs last year than Ryan Sweeney has ever hit in any season, and he was dealing with an injury.

 

For me it's about watching him take an AB, the swing he puts on the ball, the way he works a pitcher.  I'm not looking at numbers, I am watching him and seeing a professional hitter.  He looks good right now, that's all.

[bluechipper]

 

For me it's about watching him take an AB, the swing he puts on the ball, the way he works a pitcher.  I'm not looking at numbers, I am watching him and seeing a professional hitter.  He looks good right now, that's all.

Ok that's fair, but when a player is 31 years old and hasn't done much in his career, it's hard to be optimistic that what you're watching is anything new, and that he'll probably just return to the mediocre production that we've seen in his career so far.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So are we talking five man bench?

 

Murphy, Nunez, Santana, Arcia, and ?? Why not Sweeney?

they could take 13 pitchers. Extended spring training type of deal could give them extra time to separate wheat from the chaff, or swing a trade Edited March 10, 2016 by Sconnie

[DrNeau]

Carlos Quentin is making a case to make this team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Carlos Quentin is making a case to make this team.

How was the wind today?  7 Twins XBH, all to left field.

[DrNeau]

How was the wind today? 7 Twins XBH, all to left field.

Didn't make it out today, but they sure didn't forget to bring the bats! Berrios w/ 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R. Also a good sign. Someone said earlier to the effect of "If Quentin has a great spring, what do the Twins do?" Very interesting. He's putting together some quality ABs and certainly has a presence about him. Not a bad thing to have more talent.

Edited March 10, 2016 by DrNeau

[jsteve96]

I know its been a small sample size but Buxton hasn't even been able to hit spring training pitching, it's disappointing and I fully expect him to start in AAA unless he gets much better at bats and hits better. He's making me think of Hicks and Arcia. Arcia was a superstar in the minors but couldn't handle MLB pitching, afraid we see the same with Buxton.

I think Carlos Quentin makes this team to be honest. the guy can hit, he's a veteran and knows how to take a good at bat in a pinch hitting situation. Believe me when I say I was the BIGGEST Oswaldo Arcia fan but if he can't crack .200 this spring I cut bait with him, after last year I'm not sure he'd even get claimed but even if he did I would hope the kid goes out and destroys pitching but we don't have the room for a potentially wasted spot if Quentin really does well.

Danny Santana is likely a lock but he's playing super utility which really isn't that rare, he could be replaced with a guy like Levi Michael and michael could do and probably better for infield defense and definitely a better bat. Obviously i give santana the best opportunity to win that role but if he can't do it we have tons of options.      What i would do IF santana fails miserably, like how he's looking so far, is bring Sweeney north (if he continues to hit) at least for a few weeks and if they decide he doesn't cut it they have options to replace him, plenty of them.      PLUS: if Santana bats, say .125 this spring, he's got a good chance passing waivers ...

Edited March 11, 2016 by jsteve96

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I know its been a small sample size but Buxton hasn't even been able to hit spring training pitching, it's disappointing and I fully expect him to start in AAA unless he gets much better at bats and hits better. He's making me think of Hicks and Arcia. Arcia was a superstar in the minors but couldn't handle MLB pitching, afraid we see the same with Buxton.

Arcia has an MLB OPS+ of 104. He has shown he can hit MLB pitching. People are too down on him for his terrible 2015 season and forgetting the solid hitter he was before last season.

 

And Buxton profiles as a wildly different hitter. He's right-handed (and therefore less prone to ugly L/R splits), is lightning-quick, and has better plate discipline. The two players don't share much in common and that's not even bringing up their defensive differences.

 

Even if Buxton stumbles at the plate, much of his value comes from baserunning and defense. Arcia has to hit (and hit a lot) to have value.

[big dog]

And I don't care how good Quentin looks, he can't stay on the field.  Lose Arcia to keep Quentin? I would absolutely not do that based on spring training results.

[jorgenswest]

The competition for the bench starts with Murphy, Santana, Nunez and Arcia.

 

Quentin can take the spot of either Nunez or Arcia. If the Twins assess that Quentin right handed bat is a clear upgrade over Nunez, his presence on the bench might be more valuable. Nunez does not do anything defensively or in the running game that can't be covered by Santana. Polanco is in AAA if a middle infielder were injured. With Polanco the Twins don't need to carry two utility players. They aren't going to pinch hitting or subbing for 2B and 3B very often.

 

Sweeney is more in competition with Santana and Arcia. Sweeney can play CF and bats left handed.

 

Assuming a back up catcher which trio gives the Twins the most options from the bench?

 

Santana, Nunez, Arcia

Santana, Nunez, Quentin

Santana, Arcia, Quentin

Nunez, Sweeney, Arcia

Nunez, Sweeney, Quentin

 

The Twins had the worst pinch hitting in baseball last year. Maybe Quentin has enough left to turn that around.

[tobi0040]

 

The Twins had the worst pinch hitting in baseball last year. Maybe Quentin has enough left to turn that around.

 

That is because the Twins have un-necessary anxiety about 2-3 players getting hurt in the same game.  They have always prioritized their bench based on defensive flexibility.  Heck, Suzuki started 123 games last year and his .610 OPS was deemed an upgrade to the tune of 3 PH at bats last year.  The other issue we have is we have guys hurt for 7-10 days and we don’t put them on the DL. 

 

We are never pulling Sano out of a one run game because we want a defensive replacement.  Rosario in LF will rarely ever get pinch hit for, especially by someone like Nunez, Murphy, or Santana.  Mauer, Plouffe, and Dozier are never going to be pulled.   Park likely won’t either.

 

Buxton, Rosario, Santana, and Escobar can play all OF positions.  Arcia and Sano can play the corners.  Plouffe can play 3B and 1B.  Escobar and Santana can play SS, Dozier could in a pinch.

So the 4th OF needs to be a bat and we could probably add another like Quentin over Nunez.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That is because the Twins have un-necessary anxiety about 2-3 players getting hurt in the same game.  They have always prioritized their bench based on defensive flexibility.  Heck, Suzuki started 123 games last year and his .610 OPS was deemed an upgrade to the tune of 3 PH at bats last year.  The other issue we have is we have guys hurt for 7-10 days and we don’t put them on the DL. 

 

We are never pulling Sano out of a one run game because we want a defensive replacement.  Rosario in LF will rarely ever get pinch hit for, especially by someone like Nunez, Murphy, or Santana.  Mauer, Plouffe, and Dozier are never going to be pulled.   Park likely won’t either.

 

Buxton, Rosario, Santana, and Escobar can play all OF positions.  Arcia and Sano can play the corners.  Plouffe can play 3B and 1B.  Escobar and Santana can play SS, Dozier could in a pinch.

So the 4th OF needs to be a bat and we could probably add another like Quentin over Nunez.

While I agree the Twins' bench choices have been a source of aggravation over the years, that was (mostly) on Gardy. I'm cautiously optimistic Molitor may take a different tack once he stretches his wings a bit and becomes more comfortable as a manager.

[dxpavelka]

Keeping Sweeney or Quentin over Arcia or Santana has the smell of a bonehead move that bites us in the ass for years to come. 

[tobi0040]

 

While I agree the Twins' bench choices have been a source of aggravation over the years, that was (mostly) on Gardy. I'm cautiously optimistic Molitor may take a different tack once he stretches his wings a bit and becomes more comfortable as a manager.

 

But we come back to the same issue, on another thread folks were adament that the GM provides the 25 guys. If the 25 guys have a bench of a catcher and four 160 pound utility players than the PH numbers are going be awful with few opportunities to replace a guy with an upgrade 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But we come back to the same issue, on another thread folks were adament that the GM provides the 25 guys. If the 25 guys have a bench of a catcher and four 160 pound utility players than the PH numbers are going be awful with few opportunities to replace a guy with an upgrade 

I participated in that conversation but I believe my quote was "the GM has final say over the roster". Final say and input are not mutually exclusive. There was ample evidence Gardy was the one in love with the third catcher on the roster, not Ryan. That was one roster spot we saw wasted for hundreds of games during Gardy's tenure.

 

My only point is that because we saw things in the past, we shouldn't assume we will continue to see them in the future. Molitor has all of 162 games under his belt as a manager and given his openness to trying new things, it's not out of the realm of possibility we start seeing more offensively-potent benches in the future.

[alarp33]

 

While I agree the Twins' bench choices have been a source of aggravation over the years, that was (mostly) on Gardy. I'm cautiously optimistic Molitor may take a different tack once he stretches his wings a bit and becomes more comfortable as a manager.

 

While I hope you are right, Molitor fell into the Gardy trap of keeping 13 pitchers pretty quickly last year.  

 

Not to mention, I for one was pretty disappointed with how they handled Arcia last year, who may have been able to provide a bench bat.  I know he was awful at AAA, but the point remains, he was an Opening Day starter, went on the DL early.. then got stuck at AAA because he didn't hit on his 5 day rehab stint.  Did that get into his head, causing a snowball effect of bad at bats in AAA... or was he truly just lost all season?

[bustedstuff88]

All this assumes Buxton makes the starting lineup on opening day, which remains to be seen

[tobi0040]

 

While I hope you are right, Molitor fell into the Gardy trap of keeping 13 pitchers pretty quickly last year.  

 

Not to mention, I for one was pretty disappointed with how they handled Arcia last year, who may have been able to provide a bench bat.  I know he was awful at AAA, but the point remains, he was an Opening Day starter, went on the DL early.. then got stuck at AAA because he didn't hit on his 5 day rehab stint.  Did that get into his head, causing a snowball effect of bad at bats in AAA... or was he truly just lost all season?

 

Part of that was the talent though.  May, Pelfrey, and Nolasco weren't pitching deep in games. Our pen was lower third and we had J.R. Graham on the roster all year and could use him about once a week if the situation was just right.

 

But these are GM issues too.

[gocgo]

Ugh...I know Santana is out of options, and I know the ST sample size is pretty small, but what about him makes the Twins want to bring him up north?  I can't say that CQ or Sweeney have really set themselves apart from Arcia or Santana, but once again, a pretty small sample size.

 

Honestly, I feel like I'm looking a the current presidential candidates and searching for the box labeled "None of the Above".

 

I don't think Santana is a viable option for pinch hitting but he is for pinch running.  Arcia offers some pop in his bat off the bench.  So, I guess I'd take him and maybe Kepler up north if you put a gun to my head.  I know, I know, Kepler has options, but if I'm looking for the strongest team, I take Kepler north over Santana because he offers a better stick and decent speed.  I think Santana will slide down thru the waiver wire.  CQ, Sweeney...don't care.  Didn't really like the signings in the first place because I don't see them in the Twins future at all. 

 

 

[jsteve96]

how can people even be talking about dumping Nunez, the guy hit .282 with a .758 OPS

[TNLooky2015]

 

Ugh...I know Santana is out of options, and I know the ST sample size is pretty small, but what about him makes the Twins want to bring him up north?  I can't say that CQ or Sweeney have really set themselves apart from Arcia or Santana, but once again, a pretty small sample size.

 

Honestly, I feel like I'm looking a the current presidential candidates and searching for the box labeled "None of the Above".

 

I don't think Santana is a viable option for pinch hitting but he is for pinch running.  Arcia offers some pop in his bat off the bench.  So, I guess I'd take him and maybe Kepler up north if you put a gun to my head.  I know, I know, Kepler has options, but if I'm looking for the strongest team, I take Kepler north over Santana because he offers a better stick and decent speed.  I think Santana will slide down thru the waiver wire.  CQ, Sweeney...don't care.  Didn't really like the signings in the first place because I don't see them in the Twins future at all. 

Kepler has a .280 lifetime minor league average and hasn't even hit AAA yet.  He has 41 stolen bases in 6 seasons with 13 sac flies.

 

Santana has a lifetime .276 minor league average and has played in AAA already.  He has 124 stolen bases and 23 sac flies.  Hell his MLB average after two seasons is still .278 even after last season.

 

What about Kepler's one AA season where he virtually had the same average (.322 vs .319) as Santana did in his MLB season prove your "better stick" theory?  I think Santana offers more to start the season and runs faster.  He also has proven he is capable of providing sac flies when needed.  Things may change as May and June roll around.

 

Are these valid points?

 

 

Edited March 12, 2016 by TNLooky2015

[70charger]

Kepler can't play center except in a pinch, and he definitely can't play shortstop. The comparison is wrong.

[beckmt]

Kepler will have to hit a lot to make the team. If Santana does not hit, do not see him making the team. Be will be claimed and maybe that team will hope to get him though waivers later, old game by teams that like to stockpile players.

[jorgenswest]

how can people even be talking about dumping Nunez, the guy hit .282 with a .758 OPS

It would take data from his last three seasons on the bench to reliably use his OPS. It is reasonable to question that his numbers last year represent his true skill level. Various projection systems suggest his skill level is closer to an OPS in the 670s or 680s. That would be very good for an average or lightly below defender at SS. Good enough to be a starter. Unfortunately I don't think many or any teams believe he has the glove to be a starting SS.

 

On the Twins he would be their best right handed pinch hitter. If that is the role where he helps the Twins the most, the question becomes whether some other right handed batter might do a better job in that role.

[ScottyB]

I see Kubel and Bartlett in our future.

[bluechipper]

 

Kepler will have to hit a lot to make the team. If Santana does not hit, do not see him making the team. Be will be claimed and maybe that team will hope to get him though waivers later, old game by teams that like to stockpile players.

If Danny hits .100, I think he's still making the team. Without injury, Kepler has about a 1% chance to make the team. There's no point in having him up if he doesn't have a regular spot to play.

[howieramone2]

 

I see Kubel and Bartlett in our future.

I'm going with Zach Jones.

[stringer bell]

Early spring training stats are close to meaningless. See: Hughes, Luke and Hicks, Aaron for two Twins examples.

 

If the competition is between Carlos Quentin who can't play in the field or Eduardo Nuñez, who can play several positions, I take Nuñez. Nuñez performed well recently (last year) whereas Quentin hasn't performed well since 2013 and he's now 33 years old. Quentin also hasn't played a full season since 2011.

 

Nuñez is well-suited to his role and performed well at it last year. If he doesn't make the team, he'll be claimed by someone else.

 

It doesn't make sense to bring young players like Polanco and Kepler north to be bench options. Both of those guys need more minor league at-bats and Polanco needs reps to help his defense.

[Dr. Evil]

Early spring training stats are close to meaningless. See: Hughes, Luke and Hicks, Aaron for two Twins examples.

 

If the competition is between Carlos Quentin who can't play in the field or Eduardo Nuñez, who can play several positions, I take Nuñez. Nuñez performed well recently (last year) whereas Quentin hasn't performed well since 2013 and he's now 33 years old. Quentin also hasn't played a full season since 2011.

 

Nuñez is well-suited to his role and performed well at it last year. If he doesn't make the team, he'll be claimed by someone else.

 

It doesn't make sense to bring young players like Polanco and Kepler north to be bench options. Both of those guys need more minor league at-bats and Polanco needs reps to help his defense.

Though I tend to agree for the most part regarding the handling of Kepler and Polanco types, I also think there is value in grouping your top prospects together for building continuity and feeding off one another's successes and failures. Growing in to it together so to speak. Utilizing one another. Helping one another up the ladder. Even if it means not playing every day.

 

Example, if you feel your outfield will ultimately be Buxton, Rosario and Kepler, you could argue that they become a solid/cohesive unit faster by working on it together. Not conventional thinking I know. but, think about it.