Article: Ten To Extend: A Five-Part Series (Part 3)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Earlier in this series we looked at what unlikely extensions could look like for Kurt Suzuki and Brian Dozier, realized that Glen Perkins makes uncommon baseball decisions and examined the parameters for a potential long-term deal for Byron Buxton.

 

Today’s installment involves two players who are both in the early parts of their careers, one who just entered arbitration and another who is a few years away from it.6) Eduardo Escobar, shortstop

 

Personally, I feel like the time to extend Escobar has passed. There are a couple of reasons for that. When he narrowly missed the Super 2 deadline after the 2014 season, the Twins could have given him an extra bump in 2015 in return for a guarantee in 2016. Even as a utility-type player, Escobar brought lots of value to the roster. Amid rumors that the Twins were dangling him for a relief pitcher though, it shouldn’t be surprising he wasn’t extended.

 

Secondly, while negotiating his salary as a first-time arbitration-eligible player, the Twins could have rewarded their new shortstop by guaranteeing his second year. Basically a “You’re our shortstop, we believe in you, now stop looking over your shoulder” contract. Essentially the same type of ill-fated deal the team made with Brendan Harris a few years back. A contract, too, that doesn’t damage your payroll even if Escobar returns to a utility-role.

 

Escobar has earned the starting shortstop position to begin 2016. It’s hard to see Jorge Polanco wrestling it away from him as many believe he’s not equipped to handle that position long-term. So who in the organization is? Defensively Engelb Vielma is, but his bat has a ways to go and he hasn’t even played at AA yet. Nick Gordon is a better all-around player, but he’s only likely to make his Fort Myers debut this year.

 

The reality is that the Twins, for the first time in a long time, have middle infield options. Brian Dozier is one of the best second baseman in the American League. Polanco is a legitimate prospect. Vielma and Gordon are down the line and Jermaine Palacios and bonus-baby Wander Javier are even further down the line. Oh, Danny Santana, despite the “position change” this offseason, and Eduardo Nunez could still remain options as well.

 

There are some big-sticker prices on the arbitration years of bought-out shortstops, but then there’s also the deal the Royals signed Alcides Escobar to. A deal that agreed to pay the shortstop $3 million in EACH of his three arbitration years. If there’s a deal like that out there to be had, that’s one worth considering.

 

5) Eddie Rosario, outfielder

 

The unlikelihood of signing a player with less than one year of service was discussed during the potential Buxton extension. Rosario falls into that category.

 

But there is a deal that was signed a handful of years ago that could provide a nice framework for a Rosario deal; A deal signed by then-Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata. Yes, Tabata turned out to be a bust, but the investment for six years of Tabata ($15 million) pales in comparison to the nearly $25 million invested in Byung Ho Park, a complete unknown.

 

There is going to be pretty significant difference between Tabata and Rosario, though, and that is because Rosario is in line to be a Super 2 player after the 2017 season. So while the framework remains the same, an extra year of arbitration, inflation over the 2011 Tabata deal and some incentives that will reward Rosario if he continues to remain a regular will increase the value of this deal.

 

At a minimum, Rosario will always provide defensive value and has a floor of a fourth outfielder. The initial contract would pay him, at worst, as a fourth outfielder.

 

The proposal:

 

2016 (0+): $540,000

2017 (1+): $760,000

2018 (Super 2): $2 million

2019 (3+): $3.5 million

2020 (4+): $4.5 million

2021 (5+): $5.7 million

2022 (6+): $7 million option or $.5 million buyout

2023 (7+): $8 million option or $.5 million buyout

2024 (8+): $9 million option or $.5 million buyout

 

All told, the guarantee is over six years at the price of $17.5 million. Some other caveats: Starting in 2018, Rosario will earn an additional $500,000 in any year he exceeds 550 plate appearances. His salary for each ensuing year will also increase by $500,000 and his buyouts will increase by $100,000. An additional security for Rosario is that starting with that 2019 season, each time he exceeds the aforementioned 550 plate appearances, he can opt out of the remainder of his contract.

 

Rosario’s maximum contract, if he reached 550 plate appearances each year and never opted out, would look as follows:

 

2016 (0+): $540,000

2017 (1+): $760,000

2018 (Super 2): $2.5 million

2019 (3+): $4.5 million

2020 (4+): $6 million

2021 (5+): $7.7 million

2022 (6+): $9.5 million option or $1 million buyout

2023 (7+): $11 million option or $1.1 million buyout

2024 (8+): $12.5 million option or $1.2 million buyout

 

The contract becomes a six year, $23 million deal with a maximum value of $55 million over eight years, a fair-market contract for an everyday, but not an All-Star, outfielder.

 

What do you think? #ExtendEitherEddie?

 

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[strumdatjaguar]

What? Nick Gordon is no longer an infield option in the future. Methinks that omission was by mistake!

[Halsey Hall]

So far, no to all 6.

[spinowner]

 

So far, no to all 6.

Agreed, although it's easy to envision a scenario in a year or two in which I'd change my mind about Buxton.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

What? Nick Gordon is no longer an infield option in the future. Methinks that omission was by mistake!

 

He wasn't omitted. He was mentioned twice.

[Thrylos]

 

 Basically a “You’re our shortstop, we believe in you, now stop looking over your shoulder” contract. Essentially the same type of ill-fated deal the team made with Brendan Harris a few years back. A contract, too, that doesn’t damage your payroll even if Escobar returns to a utility-role.

 

Here is something we agree on.  I would not mind extending Escobar for Harris years and Money.  Harris' extension was for 2 years and $1.45M & $1.75M.  Give the inflation in salaries, that would be about $2.5 M and $3 M.  So it would be alright Escobar backs up Polanco  

 

No to any extension of any player unless he can have at least a .300 OPS in the majors.   Rosario has to prove that he is not a 4th OF.  Those are a dime a dozen (or $1-2 M in the majors in a MiLB contract)  Triples and assists are fine, but he's got to prove that he is more than that.  Do you really want to extent a guy with 5 years of team control and .289 OBP, 24.9% K%, and 3.2% BB%?

 

Sorry, but that is a waste.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd be less inclined to sign a guy like that. I thought he'd be an excellent trade candidate.

 

However, there are so many in the organization that absolutely love him. It's amazing really. I'm not saying that means they'll extend him, but I really feel like he's a guy the Twins believe in and want to have around for the long haul.

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins were offering Escobar for relief pitchers?  I hadn't heard that one.

 

I'd offer Escobar an extension.  He earned the job.  Just not really sure how long of one. 

 

Rosario?  Not yet.  Need so see a 2nd year.

 

P.S.  Buxton looked much better at the plate today.

[tobi0040]

I am learning that we don't have many extension candidates.

 

I like Rosario, but we have a ton of corner OF talent that needs to be sorted out.

 

Escobar also has a little more to prove and we have a ton of talented SS in the minors.

[Oxtung]

I'd be fine with a 2 or 3 year extension at a reasonable rate for Escobar.  As you stated within your piece there really isn't anyone close to ready that is clearly going to be a better option.  At the worst he could become a nice utility player if his bat slips a bit. 

 

OTOH I don't think the Twins would sign (or be wise to sign) a contract that allows ROsario to opt out of his contract after just 4 seasons.  You're better off going year to year with him (not that I'd sign an extension as I think he'll slump offensively until he learns to take a walk).  Perhaps though he'd be fine if those were mutual option years instead?  That would allow the Twins to retain 7 years of control and allow him to not be tethered to the 3 extra option years.  Perhaps the pricing would need to be adjusted slightly though.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If Rosario opted out of the potential deal with less than six years if service, he'd still have to go through the arbitration process.

[Oxtung]

If Rosario opted out of the potential deal with less than six years if service, he'd still have to go through the arbitration process.

Interesting. Didn't know that. Is that true than for players like Dylan Bundy who signed a MLB deal immediately for less than 6 seasons, iirc?

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Escobar has another really good season, that extension is going to get expensive.  I'm not against something longer term as I really don't see much for SS options in the high minors.  If their really sold on someone, then there's a nice trade chip in there somewhere.  But Escobar was one of the best SS in baseball last year... think about that for a second. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

With so little in the high minors for SS I don't see why we don't extend Escobar. I believe that Polanco will replace Dozier at some point rather than being the new SS. 

 

How can people not think extending EE is a great idea?

 

He was one of the very best SS in MLB last year and he STILL doesn't get much respect aroung here.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Interesting. Didn't know that. Is that true than for players like Dylan Bundy who signed a MLB deal immediately for less than 6 seasons, iirc?

It's true for everyone except guys that come over from other countries, basically. Not always the case. Park won't go to arbitration, Cespedes had a clause that he couldn't. Same as Iwakuma. I believe Jose Iglesias didn't have a clause. But as far as any American/player who entered the league through the draft, it's always the case: you don't hit free agency til after you have six years of service unless you're released/non-tendered. But if another team picks you up on a one-year deal and you still have less than six years, no free agency.

 

(Take Abad, for example. If he plays for the Twins all year after signing a milb deal, he'll have 5.073 years of service and go to arbitration next year.)

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmmm. I am going with no on both. I would be more likely to extend Escobar, though. I have always thought Rosario would hit, but I think I need to see one more year......and yes, I know that increases the cost.

 

Being GM is hard.

[alarp33]

3 years, $9 million for Escobar?  Sure, why not.  If Gordon or someone else are ready before that expires, Escobar is trade bait, or if he regresses, a fine backup IFer at $3million a year.  

 

Rosario. No... I don't think he's even a full time starter by August (Kepler).  

[Loosey]

So far of all 6 of your candidates Escobar is the one I would really think about, and that is mainly due to the fact his replacement is 3 years out most likely.  If he can put together a full year of success similar to his previous two 2nd halves as full time guy those guys in the minors may end up being the trade bait, not EE.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Rosario. No... I don't think he's even a full time starter by August (Kepler).  

 

The proposed contract would pay him to be a really good 4th OF. If he sticks as a starter, he gets paid like one... or becomes cost-controlled trade bait.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The proposed contract would pay him to be a really good 4th OF. If he sticks as a starter, he gets paid like one... or becomes cost-controlled trade bait.

 

That's fair. I didn't think that one thru enough probably, just went with a fast "maybe"....

[alarp33]

 

The proposed contract would pay him to be a really good 4th OF. If he sticks as a starter, he gets paid like one... or becomes cost-controlled trade bait.

 

Yeah, but I don't see the need to lock up a 4th Ofer for 6 years guaranteed, even if the money isn't THAT big.  

 

I'm totally willing to gamble on locking up Buxton/ Sano, because the ceilings are so high, and I think at minimum each become good Major leaguers.  If Buxton or Sano have big seasons in 2016, their extension numbers could become huge... which is why you gamble and attempt to get either done now.  If (A big If) Rosario can figure out how to get on base this year... say .315-.325 OBP, I don't think you're risking that much money by not completing an extension now... it will be the 1st time he's gotten on base since A ball.