Article: Ten To Extend: A Five-Part Series (Part 2)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Yesterday we examined what possible extensions might look like in the cases of Kurt Suzuki (more of a modification than anything) and Brian Dozier.

 

Overwhelmingly - and in no way surprisingly - the consensus is that the Twins would be wise to let Suzuki’s contract play out, hoping that the team can avoid him getting enough plate appearances for his option to vest.

 

Brian Dozier is coming off of his first year of a three-year deal that bought out no free agents years. Readers were less than enthused to tack on years to his deal either.

 

Let’s take a look at two new candidates today.8) Glen Perkins, proven closer

 

During my initial time researching this piece, Perkins didn’t jump out as a potential extension candidate. Not even a little bit. But the more I dug, the more he became a player that I had to think about including.

 

Consider this: After his age-28 season (2011), the club and Perkins agreed on a five-year deal that was very team-friendly. Just two years later, during the spring training of 2014, Perkins approached the team about a restructure/extension and terms to another team-friendly deal were agreed upon very quickly.

 

After signing the “discounted” deal, Perkins was quoted as saying, “I’ll take a $22 million discount every day of the week” citing he was going to make more money than he’d “ever need,” playing for the team that he never wants to leave.

 

Perkins is a forward-thinking player, who is very honest about himself and what he needs to do better. He’s also basically put on the record that he’ll make more money than he will ever need. Players don’t do that.

 

I don’t know what kind of trick Perk could have up his sleeve this time, but I’d say there’s a non-zero chance that the three-time All-Star closer is thinking about making the next move typical ballplayers don’t make.

 

7) Byron Buxton, centerfielder

 

Here’s one you’ve all been waiting for, right? But you also probably thought Buxton might be higher on the list. Right?

 

One reason Buxton is showing up here and not higher is there might be some trepidation after his slow start. Not at all because the Twins think he’s a bust, but just because there were very high expectations that weren’t met and it would be extremely difficult to find a deal that both parties are comfortable with.

 

Another reason is that Buxton falls into the 0-1 year of service category. The Twins have never signed a player to an extension with less than one year of service. In fact, it’s only happened five times in the history of baseball. (Tampa Bay is responsible for three of those deals.)

 

The nearest comparison from the Twins perspective would be the five-year deal that was given to Denard Span in March of 2010. With Span’s service time, the guarantee lasted through his arbitration years and the team held an option for his first year of free agency. At the time, Span’s deal was very similar to the contract that Grady Sizemore had signed.

 

Strictly using the contracts signed recently by A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain and Juan Lagares, you can assume that Buxton could easily command north of $20 million just to buy out his arbitration years.

 

You’ve read this far because you want me to throw some actual numbers out, didn’t you?

 

Here goes:

2016 (0+): $525,000

2017 (1+): $750,000

2018 (2+): $1 million

2019 (3+): $3.5 million (same as A.J. Pollack)

2020 (4+): $7 million (all of Pollack, Cain and Lagares got between $6.5m and $6.75m)

2021 (5+): $10.5 million (Pollack will go to arbitration; Cain is signed for $11m, Lagares $9m)

2022 (6+): $13 million option or $1 million buyout

 

Grand total: Six years, $24.275 million.

 

Something to note: The Twins have only Hughes and Park under contract in 2019 (with a Santana option) and only Park’s option on the books in 2020. Would that make them more or less likely to sign one of their younger players to an extension?

Weigh in below.

 

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[Vanimal46]

In regards to Perkins, he's signed through his age 34 season, with a club option of $6.5 mill for his age 35 season (2018). Even if Burdi, Chargois, or someone else takes over the closer role, Perkins is still a valuable piece for any bullpen. He could be an ideal set-up man towards the end of his career.

He's very loyal to the team, and I would imagine he'd take another home town discount to remain with this team. That being said, I'd tear up the club option, and extend him until his age 36 season (2019) for around $5 million a year. 

[DuluthFan]

Offering an extended contract to a player who has yet to prove that he can play at the major league level is laughable. While Buxton is a highly ranked prospect, he has not yet performed well enough to be considered more than a pinch runner or late inning defensive replacement. Maybe once he has improved enough to hold a major league job for an entire year. Right now he is only worth a year to year contract at the MLB minimum salary.

[HitInAPinch]

No to both, at least for this year.

 

Perkins has been hurt the past 2 years.  Bad luck, poor conditioning, whatever.  Need to see this year play out.

 

Buxton:  which one will he be?  A semblance of a 5-tool player or a guy with a serviceable BA/OBP/etc and already top notch defensive skills?  Either way, he has value. Same as Perkins:  need to see this year play out.

[Seth Stohs]

I think Perkins is set to have a full, successful season. Obviously there's no way to know that, but he made some changes this offseason. He told me that he stayed in Florida all but around the holidays and has been working out daily with a trainer. 

 

However, he also said at the time of the extension that would be it. If the Twins picked up the option, he'd take it. Otherwise, that is is. When I talked to him one-on-one at Twins Fest, he reiterated that point. He's got a couple of daughters that are just slightly younger than mine. He said it was harder being away from them this offseason, but it's what he needed to do. That's when he stressed again that he would be done after this contract. He told me that when he came up, he talked with Brad Radke. He said, Radke could have kept pitching if he wanted, likely after a surgery, and made a lot more money. But he wanted to enjoy being a dad, and Perkins said he really took that to heart. I think that's commendable because a guy with his track record, left-handed, could stick around into his 40s if he wanted to. I think he's being truthful. Obviously he can change his mind if he wants. 

[tobi0040]

 

I think Perkins is set to have a full, successful season. Obviously there's no way to know that, but he made some changes this offseason. He told me that he stayed in Florida all but around the holidays and has been working out daily with a trainer. 

 

However, he also said at the time of the extension that would be it. If the Twins picked up the option, he'd take it. Otherwise, that is is. When I talked to him one-on-one at Twins Fest, he reiterated that point. He's got a couple of daughters that are just slightly younger than mine. He said it was harder being away from them this offseason, but it's what he needed to do. That's when he stressed again that he would be done after this contract. He told me that when he came up, he talked with Brad Radke. He said, Radke could have kept pitching if he wanted, likely after a surgery, and made a lot more money. But he wanted to enjoy being a dad, and Perkins said he really took that to heart. I think that's commendable because a guy with his track record, left-handed, could stick around into his 40s if he wanted to. I think he's being truthful. Obviously he can change his mind if he wants. 

 

It is admirable to hear these things about Glen.  You give a guy that kind of money and he knows what is important in life.

 

Regarding the extensions here.  I see very little point in doling out 6/24 and not getting some free agent years for Buxton.  I would rather see it start more like 6/27 or 6/30 and buy out FA1 and tack on an option or two.  I would also wait until at least July to see where he is at.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd pass on both.  I want to see Buxton accomplish something at the ML level before handing him a 6 year deal. 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I had replied.....but it got lost.....

 

No way I extend Perkins, none, nada, nil. That was even before I read Seth's very logical thoughts from him. He's going to be 35 at the end of this deal. There is zero upside for the team to extend him right now.

 

I'd try on Buxton, but you are really rolling the die on this one. If you can't get at least 6-8 years though, I doubt it is worth it. If he would sign the deal you just proposed, I would sign him to that right now. Immediately. Then I'd give whatever member of the FO negotiated it a huge bonus (or, since I'm now a Pohlad, a gift card......).

[Vanimal46]

 

Then I'd give whatever member of the FO negotiated it a huge bonus (or, since I'm now a Pohlad, a gift card......).

Thanks for all of your hard work on the Buxton deal. To show our appreciation, we all pitched in and got you this $20 Caribou Coffee gift card! Don't spend it all at once!

[alarp33]

 

I'd pass on both.  I want to see Buxton accomplish something at the ML level before handing him a 6 year deal. 

 

Certainly fair, but once Buxton accomplishes something at the ML level those numbers he proposed could very easily be doubled as a starting point. 

 

I think Buxton is going to be a star, I wouldn't hesitate to give him that deal today.  I would guess he would bet on himself and not sign that. 

[alarp33]

 

Offering an extended contract to a player who has yet to prove that he can play at the major league level is laughable. While Buxton is a highly ranked prospect, he has not yet performed well enough to be considered more than a pinch runner or late inning defensive replacement. Maybe once he has improved enough to hold a major league job for an entire year. Right now he is only worth a year to year contract at the MLB minimum salary.

 

"Laughable"

 

Evan Longoria was signed for 6 years $17.5 million by the Rays a week into his rookie year.  

 

His 35.2 WAR those 6 seasons was worth $235 million to the Rays

[Thrylos]

This series starts to begin to read a bit like who not to extend

 

Perkins:

a. likely already in the declining phase of his career

b. the last 3 seasons had second halves ranging from bad to disastrous for a closer; ie he has not proven himself that he can close at a high level for a full season

c. has been having reverse splits so even a LOOGY situation is not desirable

d. His stuff has declined in velocity, which I suspect is the result of his ineffectiveness. Happens if you are a 2 pitch pony and your slider does not quite break the way it has been

e. The Twins have at least half a dozen young relief pitchers and another half a dozen starters who could end up in the pen who will be better than Perkins when the Twins do not control him under the current contract.

 

Buxton:

 

a. you don't need to.  Even if he is like Longoria.  The Rays are paying for that contract.

b. you don't even know what kind of big league hitter he will be.  His floor is either Mike Cameron or Vince Coleman.  If it is Coleman, you should not extend him.

c. He has issues that are obvious:  Ability to deal with major league breaking stuff:  Understanding when a breaking ball is a strike or a ball. 

d. So unless he fixes c. and figure out where he is on b., which can be this season, btw, there is way too much risk to extend him and it is totally unnecessary

 

 

Is Plouffe or Mauer next on the line for an extension?

[DuluthFan]

 

"Laughable"

 

Evan Longoria was signed for 6 years $17.5 million by the Rays a week into his rookie year.  

 

His 35.2 WAR those 6 seasons was worth $235 million to the Rays

 

Longoria after first week: .300 BA, went on to play in all star game, won rookie of the year finished with .272 BA, 27 HR

 

Buxton after first week: .091 BA, finished with .209 BA, looked lost at the plate most of the season. Also injured for parts of the last 3 seasons.

 

It would be foolish to extend a player with those numbers to a six year deal. What's the saying for free agent contracts? "The value is based on past performance." Is a .209 BA worth $24 million over 6 years? Nope. It gets you a one year league minimum contract.

 

If you are a GM in this situation, you play it safe with a one year deal. Image trying to explain a six year deal to the owner if the player ends up spending all three option years moving back and forth between the majors and minors. A player in that situation would not likely command much in arbitration and may even be in a postition to just be cut from the team.

 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

Longoria after first week: .300 BA, went on to play in all star game, won rookie of the year finished with .272 BA, 27 HR

 

Buxton after first week: .091 BA, finished with .209 BA, looked lost at the plate most of the season. Also injured for parts of the last 3 seasons.

 

It would be foolish to extend a player with those numbers to a six year deal. What's the saying for free agent contracts? "The value is based on past performance." Is a .209 BA worth $24 million over 6 years? Nope. It gets you a one year league minimum contract.

 

If you are a GM in this situation, you play it safe with a one year deal. Image trying to explain a six year deal to the owner if the player ends up spending all three option years moving back and forth between the majors and minors. A player in that situation would not likely command much in arbitration and may even be in a postition to just be cut from the team.

 

Ha. So the Rays extended Longoria for 6 whole years because he had a few hits in the 6 days he had spent in the Majors?  Ok. 

[REPETE]

 

Buxton:

 

a. you don't need to.  Even if he is like Longoria.  The Rays are paying for that contract.

b. you don't even know what kind of big league hitter he will be.  His floor is either Mike Cameron or Vince Coleman.  If it is Coleman, you should not extend him.

c. He has issues that are obvious:  Ability to deal with major league breaking stuff:  Understanding when a breaking ball is a strike or a ball. 

d. So unless he fixes c. and figure out where he is on b., which can be this season, btw, there is way too much risk to extend him and it is totally unnecessary

For Buxton, let us not forget the "injury history".  The guy hasn't been able to stay healthy, for whatever reason.  If he continues to miss games every year, a big extension will be hammered more than a "Mauer contract".  

As for Perk, if he does change his mind after this contract, and wish to continue baseball, my guess is it's because the Twins are on the verge of winning a World Series, in which case he'd want to stay a Twin anyway, at a "discount price".  

His comments are exactly why I also never bought into the "we should've traded Perkins 2 years ago" argument.  He gave us the hometown discount, and we honored it.  You start giving those contracts, then trade the guy, you never get a hometown discount again. 

[alarp33]

 

This series starts to begin to read a bit like who not to extend

 

Perkins:

a. likely already in the declining phase of his career

b. the last 3 seasons had second halves ranging from bad to disastrous for a closer; ie he has not proven himself that he can close at a high level for a full season

c. has been having reverse splits so even a LOOGY situation is not desirable

d. His stuff has declined in velocity, which I suspect is the result of his ineffectiveness. Happens if you are a 2 pitch pony and your slider does not quite break the way it has been

e. The Twins have at least half a dozen young relief pitchers and another half a dozen starters who could end up in the pen who will be better than Perkins when the Twins do not control him under the current contract.

 

Buxton:

 

a. you don't need to.  Even if he is like Longoria.  The Rays are paying for that contract.

b. you don't even know what kind of big league hitter he will be.  His floor is either Mike Cameron or Vince Coleman.  If it is Coleman, you should not extend him.

c. He has issues that are obvious:  Ability to deal with major league breaking stuff:  Understanding when a breaking ball is a strike or a ball. 

d. So unless he fixes c. and figure out where he is on b., which can be this season, btw, there is way too much risk to extend him and it is totally unnecessary

 

 

 

Agree on Perkins

 

On Buxton - If he is just Vince Coleman at the plate, with his defense he would outperform the 6 years $24 million proposed.... Coleman was worth 12 WAR his 1st 6 years in the Majors.  

 

If he's much better than Vince Coleman, which is likely... you would be saving a significant amount of money by extending him now... I still think he would turn down the extension listed above.  

[tobi0040]

 

Agree on Perkins

 

On Buxton - If he is just Vince Coleman at the plate, with his defense he would outperform the 6 years $24 million proposed.... Coleman was worth 12 WAR his 1st 6 years in the Majors.  

 

If he's much better than Vince Coleman, which is likely... you would be saving a significant amount of money by extending him now... I still think he would turn down the extension listed above.  

 

6/24 isn't that much more than he is likely to make.  He will make $1.5M the first three years.

 

Josh Donaldson made $4.3M in his first arb year.  The record raise above that is about $7M.  A few pitchers have made upwards of $20M in year three but they seem to make a little more than position players for some reason (in three minutes of google searching)

 

So worst case I don't think Buxton would be leaving a ton of money on the table. He seems like a humble kid that may prefer the certainty of not worrying about money.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agree on Perkins

 

On Buxton - If he is just Vince Coleman at the plate, with his defense he would outperform the 6 years $24 million proposed.... Coleman was worth 12 WAR his 1st 6 years in the Majors.  

 

If he's much better than Vince Coleman, which is likely... you would be saving a significant amount of money by extending him now... I still think he would turn down the extension listed above.  

I'm wary of any Vince Coleman comp because the dude was greased lightning. He stole 407 bases his first four years in MLB, which makes any WAR comp... Difficult. In one season, Coleman posted a 3.0 oWAR despite hitting to the tune of a 91 OPS+.

 

But if we're talking bat, that may be a fair comp to Buxton's floor.

[alarp33]

 

6/24 isn't that much more than he is likely to make.  He will make $1.5M the first three years.

 

Josh Donaldson made $4.3M in his first arb year.  The record raise above that is about $7M.  A few pitchers have made upwards of $20M in year three but they seem to make a little more than position players for some reason (in three minutes of google searching)

 

So worst case I don't think Buxton would be leaving a ton of money on the table. He seems like a humble kid that may prefer the certainty of not worrying about money.

 

Technically his proposal is 7 years $36 million (if option is exercised), where he gets $13 million in his 1st year of FA... so if he does become a good player... I do think its possible he could be looking at something like $46 million for his 3 arb years and year 1 of FA.  (Arb 1 $5, Arb 2 $8, Arb 3 $13, FA 1 $20)... If he becomes a superstar, all bets are off the table what that FA year 1 is worth. 

Edited March 4, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

 

6/24 isn't that much more than he is likely to make.  He will make $1.5M the first three years.

 

Josh Donaldson made $4.3M in his first arb year.  The record raise above that is about $7M.  A few pitchers have made upwards of $20M in year three but they seem to make a little more than position players for some reason (in three minutes of google searching)

 

So worst case I don't think Buxton would be leaving a ton of money on the table. He seems like a humble kid that may prefer the certainty of not worrying about money.

 

Except every number is going up and up.......those numbers will look silly small in a few years.

[tobi0040]

 

Except every number is going up and up.......those numbers will look silly small in a few years.

 

Alex Rodriguez signed for $25M a year, 15 years ago. 

 

He signed for $27.5M seven years later.  

 

Mike Trout's FA number is $33M and signed 8 years after A-Rod's contract.  

 

The rate of growth was higher on a 10 year government bond during these times than they were on the rate of growth on the high end of MLB position players.  And I have been hearing about new revenue and its impact on salaries for at least three years

Edited March 4, 2016 by tobi0040

[alarp33]

 

Alex Rodriguez signed for $25M a year, 15 years ago. 

 

He signed for $27.5M seven years later.  

 

Mike Trout's FA number is $33M and signed 8 years after A-Rod's contract.  

 

The rate of growth was higher on a 10 year government bond during these times than they were on the rate of growth on the high end of MLB position players.  And I have been hearing about new revenue and its impact on salaries for at least three years

 

Alex Rodriguez signed for $25m a year as a free agent.  Certainly you can see the difference between that, and Trout signing with 4+years to go before Free agency.  

 

Bryce Harper appears more than willing to wait for FA, and the speculation is $40/year is on the low end of where his contract will start. 

[tobi0040]

 

Alex Rodriguez signed for $25m a year as a free agent.  Certainly you can see the difference between that, and Trout signing with 4+years to go before Free agency.  

 

Bryce Harper appears more than willing to wait for FA, and the speculation is $40/year is on the low end of where his contract will start. 

 

Well, that was the initial logic.  We are talking about a guy six years from FA and comparing the out years to the FA market and recent comps.

 

If we are just looking at free agents position players in a vacuum, I think Cano and Pujols are the most recent highs, at 10/$240 each.  So free agent contracts have been going down since 2000.

 

I will take the under on Bryce Harper at $40m

 

It seems like the logic here is Buxton will be a top 5 or 10 player AND salaries are going to explode. This could be a recipe for a bad contract because you could be wrong a few different ways.  Especially since he has not looked competent at the plate yet and salaries over the last 15 years at the high end have not moved a ton on an annual basis.

Edited March 4, 2016 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

It's a very risk averse crowd here........