Article: Is Eduardo Escobar For Real?

[John Bonnes]

If sabremetricians had a guild, I’d be a card carrying member, but I’m far from blind to our weaknesses, and hubris is among them. We like to think we have more insight on the future of players than we do, that our numbers give us insights others lack. And then along comes Eduardo Escobar.

 

Escobar should not be this good. In case you have forgotten, he finished 2015 with the highest OPS on the for anyone with at least 350 AB. Higher than Joe Mauer. Higher than All-Star Brian Dozier. And he did this while playing shortstop.That makes him incredibly valuable. Shortstop is the position of smooth leather and limp bats. The average American League shortstop hit .264 with a 690 OPS. Escobar matched that batting average, but exceeded the OPS by 64 points. If he would have maintained that production for 54 more plate appearances, he would have had the second highest OPS among qualified AL shortstops, just 22 points short of up-and-coming Red Sox superstar Xander Boegarts.

 

Not bad for a guy who started the season as the utility infielder.

 

All of this is a complete surprise. It certainly is to me, who trashed the acquisition of Escobar when I wrote “10 Things I Hate About The Francisco Liriano Trade.” Escobar was reasons #19 though #21.

 

Escobar was a light-hitting, free-swinging, decent-fielding utility player with a lot of versatility. It’s not uncommon for those first three adjectives to gradually improve with age and experience, but the trickiest is the “free-swinging,” It can also have the largest impact. It certainly seems to have with Escobar.

 

Through July 31^st last year, Escobar had struck out 53 times, walked just nine times and was posting an underwhelming .241 batting average with a .653 OPS per Baseball Reference. About that time, manager Paul Molitor started relying on him at shortstop. If you ask Escobar about his sudden improvement, he’ll note that. “You play every day, you change, you know?”, says Escobar. “I stayed at one position, too, so that’s why it’s different.”

 

However, his statistics suggest a change in approach, too. Remember that 53/9 K/BB ratio before July 31^st? It was 33/19 over the second half of the year. Remember that .653 OPS? It was .874 after August 1^st.

 

Was that two month stretch a fluke? On the one hand, a lot of that success was when Escobar was red hot in August (.952 OPS). He cooled a bit in September (.812 OPS). But he wasn’t just getting lucky hits; his BABIP actually dropped in 2015 compared to 2014 as did his batting average. The difference in OPS was the power and the patience.

 

If you press Escobar a bit beyond talking about his increased playing time, he also talks about a change in his approach at the plate. “I worked hard to take more concentration to home plate, see more of my pitches, so I don’t swing at everything”, he continues. “After that, I saw better pitches.”

 

The correlation of patience with increased productivity, along with the fact that Escobar seems to recognize the change, suggests he might be a fundamentally different hitter and that we may have witnessed a transition. That increased plate discipline isn’t as easy as it sounds. It might not even be a conscious adjustment; more of an expression of self-confidence. Twins general manager Terry Ryan has his own theory about that growth. “For me, it’s the old adage: it takes a guy a year or two for a guy to get comfortable before they change clubs. And usually it’s the case. It just happens.“

 

Whatever the cause, Escobar's free-swinging days might be over. If we see that same approach this year, I suggest he’ll exceed last year’s .754 OPS which already exceeds projections systems like ZIPS, which is projecting a .711 OPS. It's possible, maybe even probable that we're wrong about Escobar. One could argue that we already have been.

 

Click here to view the article

[Dantes929]

People thought Escobar would be an excellent utility player.  He hasn't been.  They thought he would be a lousy everyday player.  He's been great.   They thought Santana would be a lousy center fielder.  He was actually pretty good.  They then thought he would be even better as an every day shortstop.  He was not.   They thought Sano would be horrible in right field.   He .........      Who knows.  Maybe Santana just should have stayed in center and things would have been fine for him.   Maybe Sano loves right field and thrives.    Maybe not.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'm an Eduardo supporter (well, Escobar anyway, not Nunez). I like his chances to be a consistent, albeit unflashy, solid player up the middle for the Twins. I still enjoy watching FranKKKKKie pitch, and he's done well since leaving Minnesota, but having a guy you can trust at SS day in and day out is something to relish, and something not seen in Minnesota for the better part of a decade. I'll take Eddie everyday, and twice on double-headers.

[h2oface]

I like that there is no talk of the sabermatician's favorite prediction... regression.

 

Opps.

[diehardtwinsfan]

He's done this two seasons in a row now.  At one point, we have to wonder if the changes were real.  I remember AJ praising him quite a bit when he left the Sox saying he just needed consistent PT... Like it or not, when he's gotten it in MN, he's been one of the better SS in the league.  Hopefully we found a gem and the second Liriano trade was close to the first.  It's even sweeter knowing the Sox were the victims.

[big dog]

Yeah, I'll bet the Sux wish they had Escobar back instead of a couple of dreadful months of Liriano (12 games, ERA+ of 79).  Now they're considering the Ghost of Jimmy Rollins.  I'll take EscoBear.  Let's hope he is who he looked like at the end of the season.

[Old Twins Cap]

Recall that they tried EE in the outfield for a number of games -- he looked terrible out there, waiting to play the balls after they hit the ground or the wall.

 

So, there's that in terms of super-utility. 

 

Compact body, compact swing, plenty of pop.  Nothing flashy.  We used to call that a ball-player when I was a kid.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Recall that they tried EE in the outfield for a number of games -- he looked terrible out there, waiting to play the balls after they hit the ground or the wall.

 

It's almost as if you can't just throw infielders in the outfield and expect magic!  I'd say that's some sort of newsflash, but it appears someone should run the headline over to the Twins at some point here.

 

But I like that we're giving Escobar the job right now.  We have Polanco in the wings so I feel ok about the position, or at least more ok about it than I did last year.

[HitInAPinch]

Escobar's stats as a part-time utility player were not good.  Escobar's stats as a full-time shortstop with regular AB's were much better.  What was the question again?

[nicksaviking]

I was also against the Liriano trade saying that it was silly considering that Escobar should be considered the 40th player on the 40 man, meaning he should be first to be DFA'd.

 

And now he's turned into one of my favorites. In the first half of 2016 if he can hit anything close to what he did in the second half the last two years, he might become my favorite.

[clutterheart]

Last year Escobar had a career year, he out hit his best minor league stats & major league stats.   

 

I don't know if he hits as well as he did last year, he might be a one year wonder.  But even if he falls back offensively, if he keeps playing solid D and isn't a black hole he remains the best Twins SS since JJ Hardy. 

 

[ashbury]

If sabremetricians had a guild, I’d be a card carrying member

They do. It's called SABR. You can join.

[Dantes929]

 

Last year Escobar had a career year, he out hit his best minor league stats & major league stats.   

 

I don't know if he hits as well as he did last year, he might be a one year wonder.  But even if he falls back offensively, if he keeps playing solid D and isn't a black hole he remains the best Twins SS since JJ Hardy. 

His 2014 year was his career year where he out performed anything he did prior.   Last year was almost a mirror image where he hit for a little less with a little less OBP but a little more pop.     Both seasons he was pretty mediocre as a utility player and then thrived as an every day guy.    Regression was more likely last year.    I don't really enjoy watching him play for some reason but that is aesthetics.    I understand about regression but I am more worried about Dozier for some reason.

[ashbury]

Back when it was Florimon versus Escobar, there was genuine disagreement over who was the better choice at SS, but it seemed clear to me that based on minor league progress the hitting stats said that EE had the upside. He was still so young.

 

Now I think we may have gone a little too far overboard; he's a competent defender but not much more, and his hitting will not likely stay at such an elevated level.

 

On the other hand, my eyeball test tells me he's a smart hitter, with legitimate pop in his bat when he chooses his spots wisely, and it's possible that I am underselling his bat by a little.

[Dantes929]

 

It's almost as if you can't just throw infielders in the outfield and expect magic!  I'd say that's some sort of newsflash, but it appears someone should run the headline over to the Twins at some point here.

 

Santana did just fine there in 2014.   Cuddyer had very few games in the outfield in the minors and he did ok.    I am guessing there are hundreds of players that have done it.  Many have failed and I would put Escobar in that group.   Many have succeeded.  Bartlett was just a dumb idea because even if he could play the position at replacement level he was also only replacement level offense.     If Sano can play near replacement level defense  (low bar here since :Arcia is probably replacement) then it is worth it due to his bat.    If Sano can't do it he won't be out there long.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm going with league median SS, which is quite valuable.

[laloesch]

"Is Eduardo Escobar For Real?"

 

He's fake

[hybridbear]

Back when Brad Swanson was still writing about the Twins he campaigned for Escobar to get 400 ABs in a season. I'm glad that the Twins did give Escobar a chance. He's becoming one of my favorite players too.

 

I wonder if Molitor will consider batting him higher up in the lineup. With such a high OPS it seems like he might do well higher in the lineup with Buxton in the 9 spot.

[barbarosa]

Wow, Eduard Escobar has played SS for the Twins two years...each year he had to beat out those who could not either play the position or bat...both years he has proven he is the real deal.   How can you not just say he is our SS for real?

 

I look forward to this year and EE playing short stop full time. 

 

[twinsnorth49]

 

Honestly I expect much the same from Eddie, even if his bat slips a little he's still a strong contributor. I really don't think anyone else in the org is going to provide any more than him. He's what, 27? After the last two seasons I don't get the continuing predictions he's going to go all pumpkin on us.

[Minniman]

Nope, he is an android.

 

http://photos.gograph.com/thumbs/CSP/CSP534/k5345673.jpg

 

[REPETE]

I have no metrics to say this, or stats to back this up; nothing but a gut (which continues to grow) feeling.  But something about watching him just screams to me the old Tom Kelly adage, "Make him a full time player, and he'll play his way right out of baseball."  

 

I hope I'm very wrong, and that he can hold down the position respectably until we get a true, flashy superstar (Gordon?  Boy he seems a long way away yet!).  I'd love to love EE.  Did I mention, I hope he proves me wrong?  

[old nurse]

What there are no metrics for. The ability to learn. What happens when you mature, or when you will mature.  They can spot the regression candidates, but not the actual regression. They really can't measure what they progression will be.

[Kavan]

I'm not sure I agree with the notion that Eduardo Escobar has transformed from a free swinger to a more patient hitter.  The percent of pitches he swings at has not changed from his career averages, in fact in 2014 he swung at more pitches than at any time in his career.  He's not swinging and missing at different rates (that actually peaked in 2014 as well).  

 

It looks like he just developed some power and started pulling the ball more often. Pulling the ball might have been a change in approach, but the additional power could just be him approaching his mid/late 20s when power tends to develop.

[old I fallser]

Eddie was the Twins Rookie of the Year to me, until that ball smashing Sano showed up.  I think Eddie's for real and the best SS we might see for a few more years at least.

[Blake]

So far, Escobar has shown:

 

1. He makes the plays he should.

2. and has a competent bat.

 

Eduardo appears to be something the Twins have sorely lacked at the SS position these last few years: reliable.

 

Not flashy, just a steady presence up the middle.

 

Every organization needs those kinds of players.

[Thrylos]

Escobar was for real after the 2013 season.  All the signs were there and fairly obvious.  Just the Twins' front office and their manager could not read them.  That was the winter that Ryan brought back Jason Bartlett, for crying out loud...

Edited March 3, 2016 by Thrylos

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Escobar has been freed.

[DrNeau]

One of my favorite players. He deserves the job. Happy for him. We're in a good position - having Polanco as a backup option. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing I really like about Escobar is that it seems like he's always clowning on something. His Jumbotron video, his general demeanor, he just seems like a bit of a joker.

 

It has nothing to do with his play on the field but I have to believe that has some positive impact in the clubhouse.

 

And it's fun to watch.