Article: TD Top Prospects: #3 Max Kepler

[Nick Nelson]

Max Kepler came over to the United States from Germany in 2009 as a scrawny 16-year-old with intriguing yet raw baseball skills.

 

It was quite the contrast from the lean, muscular specimen that flat-out dominated the Southern League last summer before debuting in the majors in September.Age: 23 (DOB: 2/10/93)

2015 Stats (A+/AA): 118 G, .318/.410/.520

ETA: 2016

2015 Ranking: 12

 

National Rankings

BA: 30 | MLB: 44 | BP: 60

 

What's To Like

 

To me, Kepler has to be viewed as the most impressive international signing in franchise history. The Twins scouted and signed a kid at age 16 out of Germany, a country (and continent) that has yielded few major-league players. They gave him $800,000 on the hope that his small teenage frame would fill out into a powerful build, and that his premium innate athleticism and coordination would translate to results on the field.

 

Regardless of what happens going forward, what he did last year at Chattanooga proved their assessment and investment astute. He has developed into exactly the type of player that the organization wishfully envisioned some seven years ago.

 

At that point, Kepler was a smallish kid and his offensive numbers while adapting to the pro ranks reflected that. Between his first two seasons in rookie ball, he hit one home run in 87 games, posting a .356 slugging percentage. But he showed a good approach at the plate, especially for his age, and that remained true while he gradually climbed the ladder.

 

Even with some promising signs and productive stretches, though, Kepler gave little hint in his first five seasons of what was coming in 2015. While making the jump from Single-A to Double-A, which many consider to be the toughest transition in the minors, Kepler thrived. Actually, that's putting it quite mildly.

 

His .947 OPS led the Southern League by more than 40 points, and was almost 250 points above the league average. He batted .322 and filled the stat sheet with 32 doubles, 13 triples, nine homers and 18 steals on 22 attempts. He struck out only 63 times in 482 PA and drew 67 walks. Facing left-handers, previously a prominent weakness in his game, was no issue; he had an even better average against them than righties.

 

Suddenly, Kepler was showing no real vulnerabilities at the plate, and it basically made him slump-proof. During one ridiculous 11-day stretch in June, he batted over .500 with five triples and five steals. This is a guy who has never really been known for his speed, mind you. The 22-year-old was just dominating on a level that is rarely seen.

 

Granted, it's just one season. But for various reasons, it's hard to look at it as a fluke. This kid can play.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

It's tough to find any real flaws in Kepler's performance last year. He was constantly a steady force at the plate and his glove work received positive reviews at first base and all three outfield positions. What he needs to do now is back it up.

 

If Kepler had consistently been hitting the way he did last year, he'd be one of the top prospects in the game. However, that is not the case. The only time prior to last year that he had topped a .736 OPS at any level was in 2012 when he was repeating at Elizabethton as a 19-year-old. He's very likely to open this season at Triple-A, the final stage he must master before graduating to the majors full-time.

 

Then it's just a matter of proving it against big-league pitchers. If there's one thing that I've seen scouts continue to criticize regarding Kepler (and I think there might only be one thing), it's that he still sometimes has trouble picking up spin and reading breaking balls. This figures to be his biggest test at the highest level.

 

What's Next

 

Under different circumstances, Kepler would be heading to camp with a very real chance of winning a big-league job. But with Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano lined up in the outfield corners (not to mention Oswaldo Arcia out of options), and with center not really being Kepler's ideal spot, he's most likely going to have to wait.

 

Minnesota's depth in the outfield gives them the luxury of continuing to take it slow with the young outfielder. If we reach July and he's clobbering Triple-A pitching, though, it will create some urgency to make room for him... or to dangle him as trade bait for a major midseason upgrade.

 

 

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TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart

TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves

TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay

TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon

 

Click here to view the article

[tobi0040]

If we move Kepler we better fetch a really good player back.

 

If Kepler is crushing AAA in 2-3 months, the expendable player that gets moved has to be Plouffe

[jimmer]

Kepler is the prospect I am most excited to see in the majors for an extended time.

[birddog]

More walks than Ks is unbelievable for a hitter of his stature. I can't imagine him making the team out of ST, but if he continues what he did last year how do you keep him on the farm? There is always room for a player with the stats he had last year. Barring injuries, TR will be a busy man finding room on the 25-man for Buxton, Berrios, and Kepler hopefully sometime in May. Twins' future is going to be a lot of fun.

[nytwinsfan]

Good article, but one small nit to pick. If he is clobbering Triple-A pitching in July, why would they trade him? At that point, the return would have to be ridiculous, and I mean ridiculous. Seriously, in that scenario, if you are going to trade someone, trade Rosario, or trade Plouffe and move Sano to 3rd. Right?

Edited March 2, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[WiesbadenDAN]

I live in Germany and every once in a while someone will mention Max to me and ask what I think.  If he makes an impact he will become very popular in a country who loves their sports stars.  This could turn out to be not just a good on the field find, but also a marketing boom for MLB and the Twins.  Germany is not a big basketball country and Dirk/Mav gear is everywhere.  Please do not trade him, my German father in law really wants a Kepler Twins jersey!

[The Wise One]

Last high level prospect Ryan traded was?  Low level prospects, for filler, I can't recall him trading any prospect that he thought had a chance.  Bill Smith was different.  If Ryan was going to move an outfielder I think  Arcia would get moved before Kepler..   Arcia, Plouffe  and Nolasco to the first team that loses a starter for the season or that team's two  better prospects.  (What would a thread that had the word trade in it without a Nolasco or Plouffe proposal in it. As long as the imagination quotient is high, remember that a spot will also have to be made for AB Walker by midseason)

Edited March 2, 2016 by The Wise One

[markos]

 

If we move Kepler we better fetch a really good player back.

If Kepler is crushing AAA in 2-3 months, the expendable player that gets moved has to be Plouffe

Yes. Like Jose Fernandez good. 

 

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if the player he replaces in June is Rosario.

[tobi0040]

 

Yes. Like Jose Fernandez good. 

 

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if the player he replaces in June is Rosario.

 

This seems to be a theme here, but I don't really get it.  I would not be shocked if he regresses or has a few slumps, but Rosario is going to provide plus range and arm in left he will have good share of extra base hits.  Outside of 2014 in the suspension shortened year, he has always hit.

[Vanimal46]

I'll be excited to see Kepler play FT with the Twins by June/July. I'm in agreement with several on here saying that he'll eventually replace Rosario in the lineup. I think that's going to be an upgrade either way, as Kepler will have a better chance of a higher OBP. 

Do you guys think he can be a 20+ HR hitter one day? Or is he comparable to a guy like Christian Yelich for the Marlins? Where he'll be a 10-15 HR guy, but a solid all-around player? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This seems to be a theme here, but I don't really get it.  I would not be shocked if he regresses or has a few slumps, but Rosario is going to provide plus range and arm in left he will have good share of extra base hits.  Outside of 2014 in the suspension shortened year, he has always hit.

 

Uh, that was in response to him dominating AAA......what are you discussing?

 

One of the Fangraph's authors is really, really down on Rosario, btw. I don't share that, but it is out there.

 

As for Kepler, I think he has a shot to be quite good. I look forward to him being out there for a long time.

[Negativity Police]

This is a raid! All you Rosario haters have the right to remain silent!

[Eephus]

Not sure Rosario vs Kepler is at an apples to apples comparison stage yet because of a one year age difference and growing up in Puerto Rico vs Germany. But if the trends continue in the same direction, I'd prediect Kepler's going to pass Rosario by due to superior OBP. Rosario is fine, solid, etc...but I think needs to take some walks if he's going to be a core starting player on a really good team.

[tobi0040]

 

Uh, that was in response to him dominating AAA......what are you discussing?

 

One of the Fangraph's authors is really, really down on Rosario, btw. I don't share that, but it is out there.

 

As for Kepler, I think he has a shot to be quite good. I look forward to him being out there for a long time.

If Eddie is putting up anywhere near what he did last year, I don't think he is bumped by Kepler regardless of how he is doing in AAA.  At that point, someone is moved. 

 

I hope it is Plouffe.  I have no illusions of Plouffe netting a return anywhere near equal to what Kepler or Rosario would.  But the thought of having an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Sano at 3B and control of all for 6-7 years is what I am excited about.  Add in Berrios, Gibson controlled through his prime, Dozier here another three years.  I think we have something here for another long run.

 

[Loosey]

I think Kepler has All-Star potential.  Imagine an outfield next season of Kepler/Rosario, Buxton, Sano/Arcia.  Young and full of star potential.  I'm sure 1-2 will no longer be with the team or playing outfield next season.

 

I don't envision Ryan trade Kepler.  He tends not to trade prospects once they have proven themselves in the minors.  That being said, if Kepler forces the issue guys ahead of him could be moved to make room depending on circumstances of the individual and the team at that point.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'll be excited to see Kepler play FT with the Twins by June/July. I'm in agreement with several on here saying that he'll eventually replace Rosario in the lineup. I think that's going to be an upgrade either way, as Kepler will have a better chance of a higher OBP. 

Do you guys think he can be a 20+ HR hitter one day? Or is he comparable to a guy like Christian Yelich for the Marlins? Where he'll be a 10-15 HR guy, but a solid all-around player? 

I think he's going to be a high avg, solid on-base guy but with only moderate power.  Maybe a poor man's Joe Mauer.  Something like .300/.360/.430 with 12-15 HR a year and solid defense.  He won't be a star but he'd be a pretty good player.  

[Blake]

 

This is a raid! All you Rosario haters have the right to remain silent!

I think that's a somewhat negative thought in and of itself.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think he's going to be a high avg, solid on-base guy but with only moderate power.  Maybe a poor man's Joe Mauer.  Something like .300/.360/.430 with 12-15 HR a year and solid defense.  He won't be a star but he'd be a pretty good player.  

 

That's pretty much Alex Gordon....so, ya, all star if his defense is that good, which it might be in a corner.

[TheLeviathan]

Last year I was excited about Rosario and that worked out well.  So I'm throwing my prospect hat in the Kepler ring this year.  

 

He brings so much to the table that this team will need.  I, too, share the hope that he forces the Twins to rethink their outfield configuration.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I like Rosario, and he might not regress much, but I have a feeling he could be a bit of a stagnation candidate offensively.

 

If he's repeating his 2015 season at the plate, and either Arcia bounces back or Kepler adapts quickly to AAA, I would absolutely reduce Rosario's playing time to make room.  Having 4 healthy and contributing outfielders is a good problem to have!  Especially if 2 of those outfielders are capable in CF (Buxton, Rosario, maybe Kepler), and up to 2 (Sano, Arcia) should get some games at DH too.  (And another reason why getting Sano some games at 3B could help the team as well, but I digress.)

[Willihammer]

I know, its ludicrous to even suggest the idea but what if Rosario and Buxton both pick up where they left off, and the Twins have to option Buxton?

 

What's your move?

 

A. Rosario moves to CF, Arcia moved to LF full time, AAAA guy recalled to bench.

B. Rosario moves to CF, Kepler recalled to LF full time, Arcia stays on bench.

C. Rosario stays in LF, Kepler recalled to man CF

D. Rosario stays in LF, Santana employed in CF, AAAA OF recalled

E. Other (explain)

[Negativity Police]

 

I know, its ludicrous to even suggest the idea but what if Rosario and Buxton both pick up where they left off, and the Twins have to option Buxton?

 

What's your move?

 

A. Rosario moves to CF, Arcia moved to LF full time, AAAA guy recalled to bench.

B. Rosario moves to CF, Kepler recalled to LF full time, Arcia stays on bench.

C. Rosario stays in LF, Kepler recalled to man CF

D. Rosario stays in LF, Santana employed in CF, AAAA OF recalled

E. Other (explain)

F. Throw you in the klink for disturbing the peace.

G. Throw away the key.

[markos]

 

If Eddie is putting up anywhere near what he did last year, I don't think he is bumped by Kepler regardless of how he is doing in AAA.  At that point, someone is moved. 

 

I hope it is Plouffe.  I have no illusions of Plouffe netting a return anywhere near equal to what Kepler or Rosario would.  But the thought of having an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Sano at 3B and control of all for 6-7 years is what I am excited about.  Add in Berrios, Gibson controlled through his prime, Dozier here another three years.  I think we have something here for another long run.

 

My reasoning was twofold: 

1) I worry that Rosario will struggle at the plate next year.

2) Even if Rosario isn't struggling and manages to duplicate last year's success, it is certainly possible that Plouffe will still outhit him. 

 

So if Kepler is crushing it in AAA, I think the odds are that Rosario is the weakest link. Now I can see an argument that a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield with Sano at 3B might be better overall defensively than the Kepler-Buxton-Sano with Plouffe alignment, though a lot depends on how poorly Sano is in right field and how much better (or worse?) he would fair at third.

[cy1time]

I really get frustrated with Rosario bashers.  In 122 games last year, in his age 23 season, he had 18 doubles, 15 triples, 13 homers and 11 SB.  I don't understand all the defensive stats, but he passes the eye test to me, albeit my aging eyes aren't what they used to be.  I'll grant you that he strikes out too much and walks not enough, but it seems to me that he has more than earned a lot more respect that many of the posters here want to give him.  He's earned the playing time he's getting with the Twins and I expect that the Twins will won't be replacing him anytime soon.  Come June, if Rosario is stinking it up, I'll be ready to jump ship, too.  Until then, even if he struggles in spring training, he's a starter and should be given some respect.  

 

[tobi0040]

 

My reasoning was twofold: 

1) I worry that Rosario will struggle at the plate next year.

2) Even if Rosario isn't struggling and manages to duplicate last year's success, it is certainly possible that Plouffe will still outhit him. 

 

So if Kepler is crushing it in AAA, I think the odds are that Rosario is the weakest link. Now I can see an argument that a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield with Sano at 3B might be better overall defensively than the Kepler-Buxton-Sano with Plouffe alignment, though a lot depends on how poorly Sano is in right field and how much better (or worse?) he would fair at third.

 

Rosario's OPS last year was higher than Plouffe's and higher than Plouffe's career average.   So if we are looking at a 24 year old with six more years of control vs. a 30 year old with one more year at $10M, I hope we are finding a new home for Plouffe.

 

My gut tells me the Twins would go down this path, with the big IF being a belief Sano can play 3B.  I am not sure they think he can so it would be a moot point.  Then you probably have to flip Rosario or Kepler.

[spinowner]

 

F. Throw you in the klink for disturbing the peace.

G. Throw away the key.

Promote this officer to Captain! (We already have a Chief.)

[spinowner]

 

But the thought of having an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Sano at 3B and control of all for 6-7 years is what I am excited about.  Add in Berrios, Gibson controlled through his prime, Dozier here another three years.  I think we have something here for another long run.

 

Add Arcia as the fourth outfielder. Thinking optimistically that could be the best outfield in the major leagues in a couple years.

[jokin]

 

As long as the imagination quotient is high, remember that a spot will also have to be made for AB Walker by midseason)

 

Not true. The Twins won't "have" to do any such thing.

 

Walker was just added to the 40-man roster. This is just the first of 3 option years for the Twins to decide when/if Walker is ready for a call-up.

 

[markos]

 

Rosario's OPS last year was higher than Plouffe's and higher than Plouffe's career average.   So if we are looking at a 24 year old with six more years of control vs. a 30 year old with one more year at $10M, I hope we are finding a new home for Plouffe.

 

My gut tells me the Twins would go down this path, with the big IF being a belief Sano can play 3B.  I am not sure they think he can so it would be a moot point.  Then you probably have to flip Rosario or Kepler.

I was looking at wRC+ and wOBA, both of which indicate that Plouffe was better last year. And by those metrics, Rosario's stats from last year would be Plouffe's fourth best season. Also, I'm definitely not suggesting that they need to get rid of Rosario - I think he would be very useful as a 4th outfielder, pinch runner and defensive replacement. 

[tobi0040]

I was looking at wRC+ and wOBA, both of which indicate that Plouffe was better last year. And by those metrics, Rosario's stats from last year would be Plouffe's fourth best season. Also, I'm definitely not suggesting that they need to get rid of Rosario - I think he would be very useful as a 4th outfielder, pinch runner and defensive replacement.

The guy had 15 triples, was among the league leaders in OF assists and had nearly a 750 OPS in his first cup of coffee as a 23 year old. Plouffe will likely decline. It is what 30 year olds do.

Edited March 3, 2016 by tobi0040