Article: 5 Must-Watch Storylines At Spring Training

[Nick Nelson]

The Lee County Sports Complex has sprung to life over the past week, with dozens of ballplayers reporting to the Twins' spring training home for the six-week ramp-up to the regular season.

 

As usual, Twins Daily will be featuring on-site coverage from Ft. Myers throughout the month of March, starting this week with John Bonnes sharing stories and observations as the exhibition schedule gets underway on Wednesday.

 

This is shaping up to be the most compelling spring training for the Twins in some time. Most of the roster spots are essentially decided going in, but the few that aren't loom large. Over the course of a month's worth of Grapefruit League games and camp activities, there will be a number of crucial experiments and auditions playing out.

 

These five, in my mind, will be the most riveting.

 

1. Miguel Sano in right field.

 

If you follow any Twins writers on Twitter, be prepared for a barrage of tweets every time a fly ball or liner is hit to right field this month. It only makes sense to pick apart every movement Sano makes when a ball is hit his way, because that's all the data we'll have to go on as he enters his first season, ever, as an outfielder.

 

Sano has been working with last year's right fielder, Torii Hunter, as he embarks upon his one-month crash course on playing a position – and side of the field – where he has zero experience as a professional.

 

Of course, no amount of tutelage or instruction can truly prepare you for the real thing, and when Sano trots out to the outfield it will be his first time doing so in a game since he signed as a 16-year-old back in 2009. Twins officials insist that he's going to surprise us, and so does Sano. Bill Parker expressed some optimism in his article here on Monday.

 

Let's find out.

 

2. Byung Ho Park at the plate.

 

While Sano is seeing line drives slice toward him in the outfield for the first time, Park will be getting introduced to his own uncharted territory: facing major-league pitchers. Paul Molitor says he is likely to give the newly signed Korean slugger a larger share of reps this month to aid his acclimation before the games start mattering.

 

The Twins have publicly tried to downplay initial expectations a bit, and the manager isn't even sure if he's ready to view Park as an everyday player yet. Certainly, some patience is warranted as the 29-year-old makes this hugely challenging transition. But closely watching his at-bats this spring, seeing the types of reads he makes on outside sliders, and the quality of swings he puts on tough offspeed pitches, should give us valuable clues regarding his likelihood of success.

 

I won't get too worked up if he doesn't hit much (though I'll be curious to see if that opens a door for someone like Carlos Quentin or Kennys Vargas). If Park starts hot and launches one or two into the pond that lies beyond Hammond Stadium's center field concourse, it'll be hard not to get a little excited.

 

3. Phil Hughes and his fastball velocity.

 

During his Grapefruit League starts last year, Hughes showed noticeably diminished fastball velocity compared to the previous season, when he had ranked among the game's best starters and set an all-time MLB record for K/BB ratio.

 

That's not terribly uncommon, as many pitchers need time to work up to their peak arm strength, but in this instance Hughes never got there. The righty went on to average just 90.7 MPH with his heater during the regular season – a career low. This was one symptom of an overall reduction in effectiveness that led to his strikeout rate plummeting and his home run rate skyrocketing.

 

According to reports, Hughes has arrived at camp looking more fit after an intense offseason conditioning program aimed at improving flexibility and strengthening his back.

 

He's lined up to start the team's preseason opener against the Red Sox on Wednesday. If he's topping out in the 80s in his first action of the year it won't be too alarming, but I'll be closely monitoring his radar gun readings as we inch toward April.

 

Hughes is a pivotal figure in the rotation. He's still under 30. With his elite control, he has one key ingredient in the frontline starter equation. He has shown that when at full strength he can miss enough bats to offset his fly ball tendencies.

 

The more we see hitters swinging late on his fastball or swinging over his slider this month, the better we can feel about Hughes' chances of returning somewhere close to that exceptional 2014 form.

 

4. The Jose Berrios Show.

 

A year ago, many onlookers opined that Berrios had the best stuff of any pitcher in Twins camp. Unfortunately, he didn't get to stick around long. The 20-year-old had minimal experience above Single-A and wasn't a candidate to make the big-league club, so he was cut early on in order to get ample work on the minors side. But during his brief audition, which included two impressive starts, the electric right-hander turned plenty of heads. Now, he arrives with a very strong case for a starting job after shredding up the highest level of the minors in 2015.

 

Granted, his odds of being in the Twins rotation on Opening Day are long, because waiting until late April or beyond could yield the team a full extra year of his services before free agency. That's not being cheap, it's just a logical cost/benefit equation, and a tactic frequently used by teams across the league.

 

But at some point, if it becomes blindingly obvious that Berrios is the best starting pitcher in camp, all bets are off, right? Molitor is surely more interested in winning now than worrying about hypothetical scenarios six years down the line, and if Berrios is lights-out each time he takes the mound while some others fail to impress, the manager is going to want that arm. Who could blame him?

 

Those circumstances add extra intrigue, but Berrios is also just plain fun to watch. His aggressive approach, sharp breaks and plentiful whiffs make him a joy to spectate on the mound in the same way as Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana.

 

5. Can Byron Buxton force the issue?

 

The Twins have announced that they now view Danny Santana as a center fielder, and Terry Ryan has mentioned repeatedly that he feels as though he rushed Buxton to the majors last summer, so all indications at this point suggest Santana is in line to open the season between Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano in the outfield.

 

However, if Santana's ho-hum play from last year persists this spring while Buxton takes full advantage of his opportunities, that may very well change. Though he stumbled at the plate last year (not as badly as Santana, mind you), Buxton has made a habit of quickly adapting to new levels in the past so it'd be no shock to see him take this competition by storm.

 

Molitor, who values aggressive baserunning and doesn't know what to expect defensively from his right fielder, is well aware of everything that Buxton can bring to the table with his unparalleled athleticism. He doesn't need to hit a ton to be a valuable piece, so if he's tearing the cover off the ball in convincing fashion it's pretty much a no-brainer, right?

 

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[Vanimal46]

5 very worthy storylines to follow this month. I'm most looking forward to Buxton forcing the issue to be the opening day CF, and Park's transition to the MLB. I'm in agreement with you Nick that Berrios is most likely starting in AAA for a couple of weeks to get that extra year of control. 

I think another storyline to follow is which one of these flame throwing relievers is going to force the issue? Like I've posted many many times this off-season, I wanted a proven FA reliever to join the team. Since that didn't happen, I will embrace the youth movement. No more Tonkin's, Kintzler's, Buddy Bosher's out there. Let's see one of the young guys step up and make the team out of ST. 

[Blackjack]

I just hope Buxton can stay healthy for a full season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[alarp33]

If Santana opens the season as the starting CFer they should just board up Target Field and shut it down.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Santana opens the season as the starting CFer they should just board up Target Field and shut it down.  

I absolutely do not want to see Santana as the Opening Day centerfielder but the ball is in Buxton's court. If he doesn't perform in spring and/or look ready to face MLB pitching, then the team has to send him back to Rochester for his own good.

 

I do not want to see Carlos Gomez version 3.0. Do what's right for the player, not what fans want to see. The Twins have done that with two talented centerfielders in the past decade, we shouldn't encourage them to do it a third time.

[alarp33]

 

I absolutely do not want to see Santana as the Opening Day centerfielder but the ball is in Buxton's court. If he doesn't perform in spring and/or look ready to face MLB pitching, then the team has to send him back to Rochester for his own good.

 

I do not want to see Carlos Gomez version 3.0. Do what's right for the player, not what fans want to see. The Twins have done that with two talented centerfielders in the past decade, we shouldn't encourage them to do it a third time.

 

Here's my issue: Danny Santana does not look ready to face MLB pitching, and isn't a Center Fielder. 

 

Always bet on Talent. Buxton is far more talented than Hicks, I've seen no evidence to suggest he can't improve at the Major League level and would need to be in AAA to do so.  Would you rather have him working with Molitor and Brunansky every day, or the AAA staff?

 

He very well may not hit from Day 1. But his glove and speed is more important than anything Danny Santana can provide.  

 

These should be the Twins 2 questions:

 

Will Buxton be a better player for 10 years if he spends April and May in Rochester? I highly highly doubt it

 

Are the Twins in 2016 more likely to win games with Danny Santana playing CF in April and May?  NOO

Edited March 1, 2016 by alarp33

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here's my issue: Danny Santana does not look ready to face MLB pitching, and isn't a Center Fielder. 

 

Always bet on Talent. Buxton is far more talented than Hicks, I've seen no evidence to suggest he can't improve at the Major League level and would need to be in AAA to do so.  Would you rather have him working with Molitor and Brunansky every day, or the AAA staff?

 

He very well may not hit from Day 1. But his glove and speed is more important than anything Danny Santana can provide.  

 

These should be the Twins 2 questions:

 

Will Buxton be a better player for 10 years if he spends April and May in Rochester? I highly highly doubt it

 

Are the Twins in 2016 more likely to win games with Danny Santana playing CF in April and May?  NOO

My problem is that's the kind of thinking that led to the stunted development of Carlos Gomez and possibly Aaron Hicks.

 

Gomez, as we later saw in Milwaukee, had the same raw talent Buxton has today. Don't screw that up by forcing the issue if it's not the best thing for the player.

 

If Buxton looks like he won't embarrass himself, yeah, he should be in Minnesota. If he's flailing away at breaking pitches like Bugs Bunny, do what's right for the kid and that's a demotion back to Rochester so he can work on development without the glare of The Show pressuring him to perform.

[alarp33]

 

My problem is that's the kind of thinking that led to the stunted development of Carlos Gomez and possibly Aaron Hicks.

 

Gomez, as we later saw in Milwaukee, had the same raw talent Buxton has today. Don't screw that up by forcing the issue if it's not the best thing for the player.

 

If Buxton looks like he won't embarrass himself, yeah, he should be in Minnesota. If he's flailing away at breaking pitches like Bugs Bunny, do what's right for the kid and that's a demotion back to Rochester so he can work on development without the glare of The Show pressuring him to perform.

 

Again, neither Hicks or Gomez were ever on the level of Buxton as a prospect.  These comparisons really need to stop this year.  

 

They all spent their age 19 seasons in A Ball (buxton a + high a)

 

Buxton: .334/.424/.520

Hicks: .251/.353/.382

Gomez: .275/.331/.376

 

Buxton's 2014 was a wash due to injury, but he dominated AA/AAA in his 72 games last season.  The success he had last year in the minors at 21, was never even close to being matched by Gomez in his MILB career, and Hicks only matched as a 22 year old in AA.  

 

Was Hicks really "stunted" by starting 2013 in MN, or was he just not ready AND not that good/ can't hit Left handed?  

 

Gomez really took 4 full seasons to recover from being put in Majors at 22, or was Gardenhire not always the best with young guys, and his power didn't develop till he matured?

Edited March 1, 2016 by alarp33

[Nick Nelson]

 

Since that didn't happen, I will embrace the youth movement. No more Tonkin's, Kintzler's, Buddy Bosher's out there. Let's see one of the young guys step up and make the team out of ST. 

Not sure why Tonkin is being grouped in here. He's 26 with a mid-90s fastball and a 9.7 K/9 in Triple-A. They'd be foolish not to give him a real shot. 

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins have been very, very clear that they want Byron Buxton to be the starting CF from opening day. They've said that many, many times. I think as long as he doesn't look completely lost at the plate this spring, he'll be the guy there. 

[bluechipper]

I disagree with the statement that Danny Santana is the frontrunner to be opening day center fielder. If Buxton shows some more discipline at the plate, he's going to start the season with the Twins.

[Vanimal46]

 

Not sure why Tonkin is being grouped in here. He's 26 with a mid-90s fastball and a 9.7 K/9 in Triple-A. They'd be foolish not to give him a real shot. 

Whether it's fair or not, I'm just not a fan of Tonkin. Don't think he's anything more than a 6th-7th inning guy in low leverage situations. But you are right, he's going to get his real shot because he's out of options. 

[Squirrel]

 

5. Can Byron Buxton force the issue?

The Twins have announced that they now view Danny Santana as a center fielder, and Terry Ryan has mentioned repeatedly that he feels as though he rushed Buxton to the majors last summer, so all indications at this point suggest Santana is in line to open the season between Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano in the outfield.
 

If that were true, wouldn't DSan be participating in the drills with the outfielders? Granted I was only there one day so far, but I didn't see him doing any work in the outfield, but rather was doing work with the infielders. Maybe Halsey or Bob have seen him other days doing outfielder drills?

[birddog]

We all want Buxton to man CF this year right out of the gate. If Santana is the Danny from 2014 and not even close to his impersonation of 2015, we have a nice backup/placeholder in case Buxton is not ready to start the season. Danny has proven he can be a very valuable player, but if he is not closer to 2014 form, I'm not sure he warrants a spot on the roster. I hope he and Arcia are up to the task at hand for they have to make the team on their own merits and not the fact that they are out of options.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

If that were true, wouldn't DSan be participating in the drills with the outfielders? Granted I was only there one day so far, but I didn't see him doing any work in the outfield, but rather was doing work with the infielders. Maybe Halsey or Bob have seen him other days doing outfielder drills?

I've seen Santana with both groups, mostly infield but I have seen him working with the outfielders as well.  He didn't look "lost" at least but I think many are underestimating just how valuable having Buxton in CF is defensively.  Byron makes plays look easy, he glides in the OF and covers tremendous ground, his plus arm doesn't hurt matters either.  As long as he posts up a .680-.700 OPS he's gotta be starting in CF, that's how much his D means.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I've seen Santana with both groups, mostly infield but I have seen him working with the outfielders as well.  He didn't look "lost" at least but I think many are underestimating just how valuable having Buxton in CF is defensively.  Byron makes plays look easy, he glides in the OF and covers tremendous ground, his plus arm doesn't hurt matters either.  As long as he posts up a .680-.700 OPS he's gotta be starting in CF, that's how much his D means.

 

Especially with Sano in right. The Twins are going to want someone experienced in center.

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

Gomez, as we later saw in Milwaukee, had the same raw talent Buxton has today. Don't screw that up by forcing the issue if it's not the best thing for the player.

 

If Buxton looks like he won't embarrass himself, yeah, he should be in Minnesota. If he's flailing away at breaking pitches like Bugs Bunny, do what's right for the kid and that's a demotion back to Rochester so he can work on development without the glare of The Show pressuring him to perform.

Yes, do what is best for the player but who knows what that is.   Maybe Gomez isn't the player he is if he hadn't started for the Twins and honestly, I thought he was an asset for the Twins even though his stats weren't great and its not like he went to the Brewers and was an all star the next year.   I don't think he has anything to complain about.  Same with Hicks.   His OBP two years ago was better than Revere's so its not like he was worthless and all along he has shown an inability to hit from the left side.   I don't know that playing more minor league seasons was going to change that.    IMO, HIcks wasn't mismanaged.   Gomez wasn't mismanaged and Buxton isn't either one of those.   If the think Buxton needs time in the minors then by all means send him down.    Whenever he is going to come up he will need adjustment time.   I am fine with him spending time in the minors and I am fine with Santana in center though I would then be a little less fine with Sano in right.  

[Dantes929]

I would love if Hughes regained velocity but I really thought his last couple months last year will serve him well.   He became more of a pitcher in changing speeds and changing pitches rather than just the cutter all the time.   If he can regain velocity on that pitch as well as incorporate the knowledge gained in 2015 it will all be worthwhile.  

[Squirrel]

I've seen Santana with both groups, mostly infield but I have seen him working with the outfielders as well.  He didn't look "lost" at least but I think many are underestimating just how valuable having Buxton in CF is defensively.  Byron makes plays look easy, he glides in the OF and covers tremendous ground, his plus arm doesn't hurt matters either.  As long as he posts up a .680-.700 OPS he's gotta be starting in CF, that's how much his D means.

To me that would seem that they are really wanting him to be a super utility guy, but also to have him as a back there if needed. Not someone they want as a starter. But then, that's the danger of supposition. We'll see what happens.

[Dr. Evil]

For me it's just about watching the Twins in general. I don't really hold out hope that there will be any surprises regarding the opening day roster. I envision fairly predictable roster decisions resulting in the "all asset management" team. Milone and Nolasco will be in the rotation. Outfielders will be Santana, Arcia, Sano, Rosario and the winner of Mastro and Benson. Just very yawn.

[Halsey Hall]

Yesterday after batting practice the team had what they hope is the starting outfield on one of the half fields getting talked to by a coach.  Rosario, Buxton and Sano. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

To me, it's amazing the Twins are so accomplished at raising up CF. Think about it: Ben Revere, Denard Span. Carlos Gomez, Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton could all be playing major league center field some day this summer, for five different teams. Yes, Gomez came over from the Mets – but he was a minor leaguer at the time. They all emerged from the Twins' farm system. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

 I envision fairly predictable roster decisions resulting in the "all asset management" team. Milone and Nolasco will be in the rotation. Outfielders will be Santana, Arcia, Sano, Rosario and the winner of Mastro and Benson. Just very yawn.

I disagree. Mastro and Benson won't be here, because Buxton will. Santana and Arcia will get some time in the outfield, but primarily it will be Rosario in left, Buxton in center, and Sano in right. 

And yes, the Twins will be an exciting team this year, especially with Buxton, Sano, and Park.

[chaderic20]

If both Santana and Buxton fall flat this spring, any chance Kepler gets the opening day nod in CF?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

If both Santana and Buxton fall flat this spring, any chance Kepler gets the opening day nod in CF?

I'll make it short and sweet, No. 

 

Long answer: eh, maybe but more like a 10% chance even in that scenerio. Kepler still needs more seasoning in the minors to prove that 2015 was the real Kepler (and I believe it was) and not a mirage.  Everyone has all this love for Kepler based on his 2015 stat line but the kid is a tweener, he doesn't have one outstanding tool but rather a good overall mix, Not great range to play Center, not enough power to play LF...I see him as a Mark Kotsay type player

[Dr. Evil]

I disagree. Mastro and Benson won't be here, because Buxton will. Santana and Arcia will get some time in the outfield, but primarily it will be Rosario in left, Buxton in center, and Sano in right. 

And yes, the Twins will be an exciting team this year, especially with Buxton, Sano, and Park.

I hope you are right about the opening day roster. I agree, the team should be exciting to watch. I just feel that their roster decisions are predictable.

[djvang]

We'll be there for three games next week!

[nytwinsfan]

 

I'll make it short and sweet, No. 

 

Long answer: eh, maybe but more like a 10% chance even in that scenerio. Kepler still needs more seasoning in the minors to prove that 2015 was the real Kepler (and I believe it was) and not a mirage.  Everyone has all this love for Kepler based on his 2015 stat line but the kid is a tweener, he doesn't have one outstanding tool but rather a good overall mix, Not great range to play Center, not enough power to play LF...I see him as a Mark Kotsay type player

I agree with the part about Kepler needing more seasoning, but not with calling Kepler a "tweener," or at least not the connotations of calling him a tweener (i.e., that he can't be a good corner outfielder unless he develops significantly more power). Even if his power develops only a little more, he's a tweener only in the same way Alex Gordon is a tweener. I'm not saying Kepler is going to be as good as Gordon, just that he seems like a similar profile player. Kepler can hit only 15 HR a year if, like Gordon, he has a high OBP, hits some 3B (Kepler would probably hit more) and a lot of 2B, has very good D, and steals a few bases. With that skill set he can still be an above average player, and depending on how good the D, how many 3B and 2B, and how high the OBP, even a really good player. HR are great, but they really aren't necessary if the value is provided elsewhere. Gordon averaged fewer than 18 HR the last 5 years but has been worth 27 WAR in that period. If Kepler is worth even half that WAR the next five years, he'll have been a valuable addition. I think that's quite possible even without developing much more power.

Edited March 2, 2016 by nytwinsfan