Article: Miguel Sano: Can A Staggeringly Huge Monster-Man Cut It In The Outfield?

[Bill Parker]

A lot of the other measures on fangraphs show him to be considerably below average.  And, to the best of my recollection, that matched the ol' eye test.

Which other measures? Those are the only ones that really try to measure his overall contributions...

[TheLeviathan]

 

Which other measures? Those are the only ones that really try to measure his overall contributions...

 

According to DRS on Fangraphs, he had a good year in 2004 but was otherwise pretty crappy from then on.  Most other measures say the same thing.

[jokin]

 

And I think this has even been taken out of context. Molly likely means that he won't be moving Sano around, that he'll play in the OF even when Plouffe gets the day off. That's probably smart when transitioning someone to a new position. But if Plouffe were traded or hit the DL for more than a few weeks, I guarantee you Sano would become your regular 3B.

 

I don't know how anyone can make a guarantee on something like this. There are loads of other in-season moves the Twins could make-

 

Esco to 3rd w/ Vielma called up

Polanco

Santana

Nunez

 

And Polanco and Santana could both platoon w/ Nunez.

 

A lot depends on how the Twins value their IF and OF defense of each player at the time of a potential Plouffe trade or injury.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't know how anyone can make a guarantee on something like this. There are loads of other in-season moves the Twins could make-

 

Esco to 3rd w/ Vielma called up

Polanco

Santana

Nunez

 

And Polanco and Santana could both platoon w/ Nunez.

 

A lot depends on how the Twins value their IF and OF defense of each player at the time of a potential Plouffe trade or injury.

 

That list doesn’t make much sense. If Plouffe is traded or hits the 60 day disabled list, it's hard to see the Twins not moving Sano in to 3B as they are better every single scenario you raised. To wit:

1) You'd need a time machine if you think Engelb Vielma is ready for the majors. He hasn't played above High A and put up a .627 OPS there. I understand his glove is excellent and can hopefully make up for his bat someday but that someday is key – he's years away from being ready for the majors at the plate. Guys who hit that poorly in A+ don’t make the jump to the majors after a half season in AA.  Even guys like Kepler don’t do that. A September call-up would represent an insanely good, best-case scenario for him this season.

2)  Polanco started 10 games at 3B in the minors, all in Rookie Ball in 2011. I know that middle infielders can often make a switch to the hot corner but that would be asking a ton for him to do it in the majors. He likely would be worse than Sano with the mitt so he'd have to hit much better than whoever they put in the OF (since he'd also have to make up for the difference in OF defense between Sano and an experienced OF). Polanco may play 3B in the future if Sano is an OF or 1B long-term but it's hard to see him ready this year, especially since the Twins will be prepping him to be ready to take over at 2B or SS if there is an injury.

3) Danny Santana played one game at third in Rookie Ball, even less than Polanco. And even if you did decide that Santana was going to replace Plouffe, you would certainly be better off moving Sano to 3B and putting Santana in left (with Rosario in right) as Santana’s experience in the OF (not extensive but more than Sano!) and his better range would make that the optimal defensive configuration. So definitely not Santana.

 

4) Nunez is more interesting. He’s certainly the 15 day disabled list option for the Twins and has started 83 major league games at 3B so he clearly is the only other real defensive option which presents a potential upgrade over Sano. I won’t compare their defense cuz that’s boring so let’s assume that Nunez is slightly better. Problem is, his offense (career OPS .696, last year .654) likely doesn’t offset the benefit of getting an experienced OF to replace Sano. It’s hard to see the Twins not taking the opportunity to check out Kepler or ABW3 if Plouffe went down. That doesn’t even take into consideration Arcia, who would certainly get a shot at playing every day and represents a pretty big upgrade over Nunez offensively. And finally, Mastroianni’s career OPS of .564 is likely close enough to Nunez that the defensive advantages would playing him every day a better option (substitute Benson/Sweeney/Rodriguezif you don’t love Darin).

 

So it’s super difficult to see any situation where a long or permanent absence by Plouffe doesn’t lead to Sano being your every day 3B. In order to not do this, they would have to sacrifice both defense (even if Sano is okay in RF, the Twins have much better defensive OF options in Santana/ABW/Kepler) and offense (Sano to 3B allows you to get PT for Arcia/Kepler/ABW etc.)  Here’s the one Plouffe injury scenario where Sano stays in the OF (and yes I’m knocking on wood like mad):

 

- Plouffe hits 60 day DL (because if he’s traded, Sano at 3B makes sense no matter what because that is his likely home for the next few years)
- Kepler, Arcia, Santana and ABW have all either gotten injured or are so ineffective that you can’t even think about playing them full-time
- Benson, Mastroianni, Sweeney and Reynaldo Rodriguez have all tanked in AAA
- There is no decent OF on an expiring contract the Twins can trade for or sign as a free agent

 

Yeah, looking at that, I’ll guarantee that Sano is your 3B if Plouffe hits the 60 day DL or is traded. Cuz that ain’t gonna happen (knocks on wood). The Twins are saying Sano won't go to 3B because they want him to settle in as a RF but if fate dictates that Plouffe can't play 3B long term, it's ludicrous to think that anyone besides Sano would end up there.

Edited March 3, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[TheLeviathan]

If Plouffe is traded or hits the 60 day disabled list, it's hard to see the Twins not moving Sano in to 3B as they are better every single scenario you raised.

 

 

If they do that....it instantly makes this entire OF thing The Stupid.

[jokin]

 

That list doesn’t make much sense. If Plouffe is traded or hits the 60 day disabled list, it's hard to see the Twins not moving Sano in to 3B as they are better every single scenario you raised. To wit:

1) You'd need a time machine if you think Engelb Vielma is ready for the majors. He hasn't played above High A and put up a .627 OPS there. I understand his glove is excellent and can hopefully make up for his bat someday but that someday is key – he's years away from being ready for the majors at the plate. Guys who hit that poorly in A+ don’t make the jump to the majors after a half season in AA.  Even guys like Kepler don’t do that. A September call-up would represent an insanely good, best-case scenario for him this season.

2)  Polanco started 10 games at 3B in the minors, all in Rookie Ball in 2011. I know that middle infielders can often make a switch to the hot corner but that would be asking a ton for him to do it in the majors. He likely would be worse than Sano with the mitt so he'd have to hit much better than whoever they put in the OF (since he'd also have to make up for the difference in OF defense between Sano and an experienced OF). Polanco may play 3B in the future if Sano is an OF or 1B long-term but it's hard to see him ready this year, especially since the Twins will be prepping him to be ready to take over at 2B or SS if there is an injury.

3) Danny Santana played one game at third in Rookie Ball, even less than Polanco. And even if you did decide that Santana was going to replace Plouffe, you would certainly be better off moving Sano to 3B and putting Santana in left (with Rosario in right) as Santana’s experience in the OF (not extensive but more than Sano!) and his better range would make that the optimal defensive configuration. So definitely not Santana.

 

4) Nunez is more interesting. He’s certainly the 15 day disabled list option for the Twins and has started 83 major league games at 3B so he clearly is the only other real defensive option which presents a potential upgrade over Sano. I won’t compare their defense cuz that’s boring so let’s assume that Nunez is slightly better. Problem is, his offense (career OPS .696, last year .654) likely doesn’t offset the benefit of getting an experienced OF to replace Sano. It’s hard to see the Twins not taking the opportunity to check out Kepler or ABW3 if Plouffe went down. That doesn’t even take into consideration Arcia, who would certainly get a shot at playing every day and represents a pretty big upgrade over Nunez offensively. And finally, Mastroianni’s career OPS of .564 is likely close enough to Nunez that the defensive advantages would playing him every day a better option (substitute Benson/Sweeney/Rodriguezif you don’t love Darin).

 

So it’s super difficult to see any situation where a long or permanent absence by Plouffe doesn’t lead to Sano being your every day 3B. In order to not do this, they would have to sacrifice both defense (even if Sano is okay in RF, the Twins have much better defensive OF options in Santana/ABW/Kepler) and offense (Sano to 3B allows you to get PT for Arcia/Kepler/ABW etc.)  Here’s the one Plouffe injury scenario where Sano stays in the OF (and yes I’m knocking on wood like mad):

 

- Plouffe hits 60 day DL (because if he’s traded, Sano at 3B makes sense no matter what because that is his likely home for the next few years)
- Kepler, Arcia, Santana and ABW have all either gotten injured or are so ineffective that you can’t even think about playing them full-time
- Benson, Mastroianni, Sweeney and Reynaldo Rodriguez have all tanked in AAA
- There is no decent OF on an expiring contract the Twins can trade for or sign as a free agent

 

Yeah, looking at that, I’ll guarantee that Sano is your 3B if Plouffe hits the 60 day DL or is traded. Cuz that ain’t gonna happen (knocks on wood). The Twins are saying Sano won't go to 3B because they want him to settle in as a RF but if fate dictates that Plouffe can't play 3B long term, it's ludicrous to think that anyone besides Sano would end up there.

 

I agree with the factual content in all of your points, but I 'm also aware that the Twins braintrust don't always make decisions based on the most obvious and logical sets of facts that would best help the team (Just look back to how May was handled).

 

Based on their history of confounding personnel decisions, I don't think anyone can guarantee that Sano will make a mid-season transition to a much more difficult position, especially if it's in the glare of the Twins being in a competitive position for a post-season spot.

Edited March 4, 2016 by jokin

[jokin]

 

That list doesn’t make much sense. If Plouffe is traded or hits the 60 day disabled list, it's hard to see the Twins not moving Sano in to 3B as they are better every single scenario you raised. To wit:

1) You'd need a time machine if you think Engelb Vielma is ready for the majors. He hasn't played above High A and put up a .627 OPS there. I understand his glove is excellent and can hopefully make up for his bat someday but that someday is key – he's years away from being ready for the majors at the plate. Guys who hit that poorly in A+ don’t make the jump to the majors after a half season in AA.  Even guys like Kepler don’t do that. A September call-up would represent an insanely good, best-case scenario for him this season.

2)  Polanco started 10 games at 3B in the minors, all in Rookie Ball in 2011. I know that middle infielders can often make a switch to the hot corner but that would be asking a ton for him to do it in the majors. He likely would be worse than Sano with the mitt so he'd have to hit much better than whoever they put in the OF (since he'd also have to make up for the difference in OF defense between Sano and an experienced OF). Polanco may play 3B in the future if Sano is an OF or 1B long-term but it's hard to see him ready this year, especially since the Twins will be prepping him to be ready to take over at 2B or SS if there is an injury.

3) Danny Santana played one game at third in Rookie Ball, even less than Polanco. And even if you did decide that Santana was going to replace Plouffe, you would certainly be better off moving Sano to 3B and putting Santana in left (with Rosario in right) as Santana’s experience in the OF (not extensive but more than Sano!) and his better range would make that the optimal defensive configuration. So definitely not Santana.

 

4) Nunez is more interesting. He’s certainly the 15 day disabled list option for the Twins and has started 83 major league games at 3B so he clearly is the only other real defensive option which presents a potential upgrade over Sano. I won’t compare their defense cuz that’s boring so let’s assume that Nunez is slightly better. Problem is, his offense (career OPS .696, last year .654) likely doesn’t offset the benefit of getting an experienced OF to replace Sano. It’s hard to see the Twins not taking the opportunity to check out Kepler or ABW3 if Plouffe went down. That doesn’t even take into consideration Arcia, who would certainly get a shot at playing every day and represents a pretty big upgrade over Nunez offensively. And finally, Mastroianni’s career OPS of .564 is likely close enough to Nunez that the defensive advantages would playing him every day a better option (substitute Benson/Sweeney/Rodriguezif you don’t love Darin).

 

So it’s super difficult to see any situation where a long or permanent absence by Plouffe doesn’t lead to Sano being your every day 3B. In order to not do this, they would have to sacrifice both defense (even if Sano is okay in RF, the Twins have much better defensive OF options in Santana/ABW/Kepler) and offense (Sano to 3B allows you to get PT for Arcia/Kepler/ABW etc.)  Here’s the one Plouffe injury scenario where Sano stays in the OF (and yes I’m knocking on wood like mad):

 

- Plouffe hits 60 day DL (because if he’s traded, Sano at 3B makes sense no matter what because that is his likely home for the next few years)
- Kepler, Arcia, Santana and ABW have all either gotten injured or are so ineffective that you can’t even think about playing them full-time
- Benson, Mastroianni, Sweeney and Reynaldo Rodriguez have all tanked in AAA
- There is no decent OF on an expiring contract the Twins can trade for or sign as a free agent

 

Yeah, looking at that, I’ll guarantee that Sano is your 3B if Plouffe hits the 60 day DL or is traded. Cuz that ain’t gonna happen (knocks on wood). The Twins are saying Sano won't go to 3B because they want him to settle in as a RF but if fate dictates that Plouffe can't play 3B long term, it's ludicrous to think that anyone besides Sano would end up there.

 

You left out the prospect of Esco sliding over to 3rd and one of the others moving in at SS. (BTW, Vielma may not be ready with the bat, but it's widely reported that his glove is not only major league ready, but that he is the best SS in the entire Twins system, majors or minors- if defense becomes a priority- if Vielma holds his own in AA, I can easily envision the Twins making the emergency call-up and sliding Escobar to 3rd.)

Edited March 4, 2016 by jokin

[ThejacKmp]

 

You left out the prospect of Esco sliding over to 3rd and one of the others moving in at SS. (BTW, Vielma may not be ready with the bat, but it's widely reported that his glove is not only major league ready, but that he is the best SS in the entire Twins system, majors or minors- if defense becomes a priority- if Vielma holds his own in AA, I can easily envision the Twins making the emergency call-up and sliding Escobar to 3rd.)

 

Oh I love Vielma - he is one of those sneaky prospects who I'll be keeping a close eye on because if he can continue to hit .270 on the way up he will be a big part of the Twins plans. A great defensive shortstop changes a team. But even in a best case scenario he's not going to be ready this year. Next year is even a huge maybe.

 

Switching Escobar to 3B doesn't change any of the above scenarios. You're still not able to justify the offensive downgrade of moving one of those guys in. Plus Santana, Polanco and Nunez are all worse shortstops than Escobar. You'd be downgrading your defense at SS. The only way I see Escobar leaving SS is if he leaves the starting lineup. The position is finally his.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

Based on their history of confounding personnel decisions, I don't think anyone can guarantee that Sano will make a mid-season transition to a much more difficult position, especially if it's in the glare of the Twins being in a competitive position for a post-season spot.

 

It's a more difficult position but it's also a position he played through the minors and has a good comfort with. I know the Twins are now selling Sano's move to the OF as natural but we all know that's cover-your-ass corporate speak for "we didn't find a deal we wanted for Plouffe so this is the next best option." The only real variable I could see changing it would be if Sano was somehow a really good OF. But I think we can agree that's pretty unlikely.

 

I disagree that the Twins braintrust makes illogical decisions. In particular, they will want to see Kepler in the majors very badly if he hits at all so any serious injury to Mauer, Plouffe, Arcia/Park etc. is going to make moving Sano in to the IF or DH the obvious choice.

Edited March 4, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[alarp33]

 

You left out the prospect of Esco sliding over to 3rd and one of the others moving in at SS. (BTW, Vielma may not be ready with the bat, but it's widely reported that his glove is not only major league ready, but that he is the best SS in the entire Twins system, majors or minors- if defense becomes a priority- if Vielma holds his own in AA, I can easily envision the Twins making the emergency call-up and sliding Escobar to 3rd.)

 

You left out Max Kepler.  The Twins would be better with Vielma in the lineup than Kepler? I would argue the Kepler lineup would be better defensively, as you don't have Sano in OF any longer. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I 'm also aware that the Twins braintrust don't always make decisions based on the most obvious and logical sets of facts that would best help the team (Just look back to how May was handled).

 

 

I think the issue with May isn't so much that he moved to the pen last year but that he seems bound there. So I'd disagree that May to the pen was illogical - it may not be what I'd do or you’d do but you can see the rational at the time. To wit:

(1) May arguably had the best stuff for transitioning to the pen. He throws hard and dropping the frequency one of his off-speed pitches allowed him to really become a more dominant pitcher. Other starters might be 6th or 7th inning guys in the pen but May seemed like a late-inning option. That’s more valuable and something the Twins really needed at the time.

 

(2) May was also in his first year in the majors and limiting his innings isn't the worst thing in the world. In essence, the Twins could ride arms they didn't have much future investment in and keep May fresher for the future. That’s good economics.

 

(3) May wasn't pitching particularly well as a starter. He had a mid-4.00s ERA and got shelled some. I think we all saw glimpses of a bright future so that’s not to say he was awful, just that he didn’t make a great case to be the best guy for right that moment.

 

(4) The main part though is that there wasn’t another obvious candidate. While Hughes has experience, he got Cy Young votes the year before and was your opening day starter so he didn’t make sense. Gibson was pitching better and doesn’t profile as well out of the pen. You signed Santana to big money to start so he wasn’t going to the pen (plus you’ll never get another free agent starter if you force a guy who did sign to the pen). Milone gave you a lefty in the rotation, doesn’t profile well in the pen and was the better pitcher at the time. And that leaves Pelfrey. It’s easy to use hindsight to say that Pelfrey sucked late in the season but at the time the Twins made the change, he was pitching better than May. In fact, early in the season Pelfrey carried the Twins and was kind of the staff ace the first two months of the season (as bizarre as that sounds now). It’s hard to throw that guy in the pen. And even with his struggles he still finished with a better ERA as a starter than May (too lazy to look up FIP etc. Sorry!). So really, May made the most sense for a team that was surprisingly in contention (if they had been 15 games out it would be a totally different story). 

 

Now hindsight is 20-20 and I think we all wish that the Twins had moved Pelfrey to the pen and left May in the rotation. May could have improved as the season went on and certainly couldn’t be as rough as Pelfrey was down the stretch. But to say that moving May to the pen had no rational is a bit much – he wasn’t pitching well and was really the best candidate for being an impact arm in the pen.

 

The thing that is worrisome now is that May seems stuck in the pen this year, where he is likely seventh in line for a starting spot (behind Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Berrios – I think he beats out Nolasco). That’s not the worst thing in the world for this year since the Twins do have a lot of good options and some of the logic from last year holds true this year. But long-term, we want the Twins to see what May looks like in the rotation. Milone and Nolasco will likely be out of May’s way next year and you have to hope that the glut of good young relievers will make May expendable in the pen but there will still be five guys ahead of him along with some young arms (Thorpe, Gonsalves etc.) hopefully pushing the majors soon. It’s concerning to think that May might not get back to the rotation after this year. He doesn’t seem like an ace but a good #3 pitcher is exceedingly valuable and he would be wasted in the pen long term.

 

P.S. One hidden aspect of this that doesn’t get talked about is the Carlos Gomez factor. We all saw the Twins push Carlos Gomez because he was the main guy in the Santana trade and the Twins wanted to show fans some tangible results. That desire to showcase the positive results of a trade doesn’t seem to be a factor for Mays and Meyer. Both of those guys were billed as potential top of the rotation starters but the Twins seem comfortable moving both of them to the pen. I understand that Span/Revere is not the same as Santana as far as showcasing goes but the Twins are handling these Mays and Meyer very differently. They aren’t being pushed to be starters so as to show that the trades were good. It’s kind of refreshing on one level but also kind of odd since both of these guys should be starters long term (I still believe in Meyer! Randy Johnson comparisons are the best!). It’s a source of hope for me that the Twins will eventually want May to be a starter (and hopefully will keep working with Meyer in that role as well).

 

P.P.S. Back to Pelfrey. If I’d been in charge of the “who goes to the pen” decision, I would have ignored what I said above and moved Pelf to the pen. Not because I expected him to be bad but because I’ve always thought that he would make a pretty good reliever. He really only throws two pitches and while he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers to become a true 8th/9th inning guy, his tendency to get groundballs would play well in a 6th – 8th inning “get out of a jam” role and you’d expect that his K rate would spike as he was able to air it out a bit. That’s why I always thought Pelfrey was a bit loopy to insist on being a starter at the beginning of 2015. The Tigers clearly disproved it with their insane spending this offseason but at the beginning of last year, he didn’t seem like a guy who would ever get a multiple year deal as a starter and seemed more likely to be headed towards the one year $3 million contract or spring training invite side of the starting rotation market. One good season as a reliever with a little spike in the K rate due to increased velocity might have made him one of those three years $15 million to $18 million guys. It never made sense to me that he was so gung-ho on being a starter. I guess he was right in the end but I’m still intrigued by what he could do in a pen.

Edited March 4, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[jimmer]

'3) May wasn't pitching particularly well as a starter. He had a mid-4.00s ERA and got shelled some. I think we all saw glimpses of a bright future so that’s not to say he was awful, just that he didn’t make a great case to be the best guy for right that moment.'

 

May was pitching the best in the rotation before he got sent to the pen.  He had the highest WAR, the best FIP, the most Ks/9 IP, the 2nd best BB/9.  The problem was having a very high BABIP against. Wouldn't expect that to continue.

[alarp33]

"And that leaves Pelfrey. It’s easy to use hindsight to say that Pelfrey sucked late in the season but at the time the Twins made the change, he was pitching better than May"

 

Pelfrey pitched 35 innings in June, struck out 16, walked 13 and had a 5.35 era... and was a FA after the year they (hopefully) had no intention of bringing back. 

 

May in June: 24 innings 24 k's, 6 walks, 3.7 era (includes the 1/3 inning start in milwaukee).  May's last start before the Pen was July 1 (6.1 innings, 6 k's, 1 er)

Edited March 4, 2016 by alarp33

[ewen21]

I don't like the fact that he played 3rd for a few years and now suddenly he has to play the outfield.  My question is.....

Is Trevor Plouffe THAT good in order to cause this move?

and 2

Shouldn't they have seen this coming if they liked Plouffe so much??

 

Sano is the best prospect we have had and on the surface this seems rather cavalier.  Plouffe is OK, but if he has a down year and Sano does badly in the outfield this year then this bad move on paper is a even worse.

[jimbo92107]

If Sano can play conservative right field, then use his powerful arm to gun a few guys out trying for second, the Twins will be very happy. I'm not so worried about his health out there. Football players his size have good careers, and nobody is smashing into Sano's legs. 

Edited March 5, 2016 by jimbo92107