Article: TD Top Prospects: #9 Kohl Stewart

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday, Nick Burdi was profiled as our #10 Twins prospect. Today, we continue working through our Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects Rankings with our choice for the #9 prospect.

 

When the Twins used the fourth overall pick of the 2013 draft on Kohl Stewart, they were getting a tremendous athlete with a big arm. He was raw, a project with big potential. Now 21 and entering his third full season, Stewart is looking to turn some of his amazing tools into consistent skills. It’s a big year for the right-hander, but his upside remains high.Age: 21 (DOB: 10/7/94)

2015 Stats (High-A): 129.1 IP, 7-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 71/45 K/BB

ETA: 2018

2014 Ranking: 4; 2015 Ranking: 4

 

National Top 100 Rankings

BA: NR | MLB: NR | BP: NR

 

 

What's To Like

 

The Minnesota Twins used the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft on Texas prep pitcher Kohl Stewart. Of course, he was drafted for his potential, but he was very raw. As a senior in high school, he threw just 40 innings. Stewart, however, is a great athlete. He was one of the top quarterbacks in the country and had committed to Texas A&M. The Twins coaxed him to give up football with a signing bonus just north of $4.5 million.

 

At 6-3 and 210 pounds, Stewart is a great athlete with a big arm. He is blessed with a fastball that is capable of reaching 96 mph. He is known to have very good breaking pitches, both a curve ball and a slider. He also has a change-up that can be very good. Many scouts believe that each of these pitches have the potential to be plus pitches.

 

Though he hasn’t missed many bats the last couple of seasons, reports indicate the he does not give up much hard contact. He gets more than two groundouts for every fly out. He also gave up just two homers in 129.1 innings in 2015 and has given up just six homers in 236.1 professional innings.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

While Stewart has all the tools to be a top-of-the-rotation type of starter, there are definitely some things that needs to be monitored.

 

His first two seasons both ended with Stewart on the disabled list with shoulder issues. Though he spent three weeks on the DL in April, he remained healthy the remainder of the 2015 season making his starts every six days.

 

It’s hard to look at Kohl Stewart’s stat line without noticing a couple of numbers that are both going in the wrong direction. His strikeout rate has gone from 10.8 in rookie ball, to 6.4 in the Midwest League in 2014 to a minuscule 4.9 last year in Ft. Myers. Couple those decreasing strikeout totals with increasing walk rates. In his debut season, he walked just 1.8 per nine innings. That was followed with 2.5 per nine in Cedar Rapids and 3.1 per nine in Ft. Myers.

 

While we often note that his fastball can touch 96 mph at times, it is also fair to note that he was very inconsistent with his delivery. From start-to-start and often even inning-to-inning, his mechanics could get out of whack enough that many times he would sit 89 to 91 with the fastball and other times it would be 94 to 96.

 

What's Next

 

While Stewart posted a nice ERA in Ft. Myers, his increasing walk rate and decreasing strikeout totals make it likely that spending another half-season in the Florida State League would be beneficial. It could provide an opportunity to work on things (especially more consistent mechanics) he learned last year and in the offseason at a level he’s already had some success in.

 

It is very possible that Stewart will end the season in Chattanooga. Considering that he does not need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2017 season and then would have three option years, the Twins can afford to be very patient with Stewart’s development. If that means that he sticks in Ft. Myers the entire season, that is what needs to be done.

Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Twins Prospect #8.

 

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[tobi0040]

Based on wild velocity dips, mechanics, and the lack of k's, I think Kohl is a talented project at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

My thought is consistent:

 

1. I'd have liked to have seen more strikeouts, however

2. This is the year where I think we go from "he is pretty new to full time pitching and was a football player" to "well, he's been full time baseball long enough to form a meaningful impression", and, I still think that impression will be a good one.

 

Still a fan.

[tobi0040]

 

My thought is consistent:

 

1. I'd have liked to have seen more strikeouts, however

2. This is the year where I think we go from "he is pretty new to full time pitching and was a football player" to "well, he's been full time baseball long enough to form a meaningful impression", and, I still think that impression will be a good one.

 

Still a fan.

 

Could be.  It seems like a lot of top pitchers also played other sports though.  Was he that much more raw than others? 

 

I honestly don't know the answer to this.

[Blake]

I am not a fan of this signing, at all. 

 

Type 1 diabetes is not a joke and the risks involved for the player and the organization are enormous.

 

People are under the impression that as long as Stewart takes his insulin, all will be well. That is far from the truth and I'm astounded the Twins took this kind of risk. 

[Steve Lein]

 

I am not a fan of this signing, at all. 

 

Type 1 diabetes is not a joke and the risks involved for the player and the organization are enormous.

 

People are under the impression that as long as Stewart takes his insulin, all will be well. That is far from the truth and I'm astounded the Twins took this kind of risk. 

 

I would venture Stewart is in a great position, and has all the necessary people around him, to make this as little of an issue as possible. If he doesn't, the Twins need to step in on that.

 

But you do bring up a correct concern. It is more likely than not, that the shoulder issues he's had are related to, and exacerbated by, his diabetes. I've always said he was going to have to work harder and be stronger than everyone else to keep his arm and shoulder healthy because of this. 

[markos]

 

Could be.  It seems like a lot of top pitchers also played other sports though.  Was he that much more raw than others? 

 

I honestly don't know the answer to this.

I feel like the narrative with Stewart's rawness has changed a lot since the draft. Pre-draft, his lack of focus on baseball was seen as a good thing, with the logic being that since he was already so good as a multi-sport athlete just think how good he will be once he focuses solely on pitching. BA actually picked him as the first HS player to reach the majors from his class. There was a HS pitcher in that class that everyone agreed was super raw but worth the development effort, and that was Trey Ball, the other top-10 HS pitcher selected that year. Everyone said that Ball was a major project that would take a long, long time to develop. Few, if any, draft analysts made similar warnings about Stewart. But as his results haven't matched the expectations, there has been a steady, growing drumbeat that Stewart was super-raw, needs lots of time, etc, etc. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm no expert....nor do I get to see these guys....but some of us have been consistent that it would take time......how is Ball doing?

[markos]

 

I'm no expert....nor do I get to see these guys....but some of us have been consistent that it would take time......how is Ball doing?

Worse than Stewart - few Ks, lots of BBs but also lots of HRs. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Worse than Stewart - few Ks, lots of BBs but also lots of HRs. 

 

bummer. 

 

what I liked about the Stewart pick was that it was an upside play. I prefer upside plays in the first round of the draft over risk averse "high floor" plays.

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm no expert....nor do I get to see these guys....but some of us have been consistent that it would take time......how is Ball doing?

 

Similar issues to Kohl. Though also with a career ERA 2 runs higher.

[Vanimal46]

 

I am not a fan of this signing, at all. 

 

Type 1 diabetes is not a joke and the risks involved for the player and the organization are enormous.

 

People are under the impression that as long as Stewart takes his insulin, all will be well. That is far from the truth and I'm astounded the Twins took this kind of risk. 

I had no idea Stewart is going through these issues. I'm no expert on diabetes but yes, that is a concern going forward. 

At 21 I hope he can still develop into an MLB pitcher, but it wouldn't surprise me if 5-10 years down the line there's a thread on this site titled "Remember Kohl Stewart? What's he up to these days?"

[Loosey]

I know people with type 1 diabetes and yes it can be difficult and can put you at somewhat of a disadvantage in certain areas of life.  That being said if he manages it and takes care of himself I don't see how have this disease will impede his progress to becoming a good major league baseball player.  He has more medical staff and additional resources at his disposal than most people with diabetes.  I personally don't think it was a "risk" at all. 

[Bob Sacamento]

Players with Type 1 Diabetes include HOF Catfish Hunter and Ron Santo, current MLBers Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe, Dustin McGowen.  There was draft pick in 2010 Dylan Covey whom was taken 15th overall that the Brewers ended up not getting a deal done because of his Type 1 Diabetes so looks like the Twins believe enough in Stewart's work ethic that he can play even with the condition.  It's just something that he'll have to monitor constantly much like he has through life so far.

[DocBauer]

I know I'm guilty of wanting Stewart to be that #1 type, high draft choice, SO, dominating front of the line pitcher so badly that I lose some perspective.

 

It now seems to me that he was/is just more raw than we knew or imagined. 40 innings as a high school senior is crazy. But his velocity, his age, the vast number of ground balls and the almost utter lack of HR allowed has me encouraged again. He should absolutely begin the season back in high A.

[Blake]

 

I know people with type 1 diabetes and yes it can be difficult and can put you at somewhat of a disadvantage in certain areas of life.  That being said if he manages it and takes care of himself I don't see how have this disease will impede his progress to becoming a good major league baseball player.  He has more medical staff and additional resources at his disposal than most people with diabetes.  I personally don't think it was a "risk" at all. 

I don't want people to think I'm down on Stewart the person or anything like that. The area of risk is wound/post surgical wound management. Diabetics just don't heal as well as other people and are more prone to infections.

 

Those are my real areas of concern.

 

I grew up with and had close family friends who were diabetics. That was when I first found out insulin isn't a magic bullet that allows one to live their life just like anyone else.

Edited February 25, 2016 by Blake

[Seth Stohs]

 

Players with Type 1 Diabetes include HOF Catfish Hunter and Ron Santo, current MLBers Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe, Dustin McGowen.  There was draft pick in 2010 Dylan Covey whom was taken 15th overall that the Brewers ended up not getting a deal done because of his Type 1 Diabetes so looks like the Twins believe enough in Stewart's work ethic that he can play even with the condition.  It's just something that he'll have to monitor constantly much like he has through life so far.

 

He has a couple of check ups in Houston every year, so they're on top of it.

[James]

There is definitely still a lot of hope for Stewart in my mind.  Yes, I would also like to see a lot more strikeouts, but I think that is just a little bit away.  Anyone who is inducing groundballs at 59% is doing something right.  Some of those pitches are going to turn into some swinging strikes, some will probably turn into more line drives/fly balls, and many of them will continue to be groundballs.  

 

I agree this is big year for him, but I'm putting money on him making some improvements.  There's still a lot of potential there and no reason to give up on him yet.

[birddog]

His ratio of HR/inning is unbelievable. He is not getting the K's we would like to see from a power arm, but his ERA is good and if they are not getting solid contact off him that is the main thing. He will learn better mound sense and how to get a K in tight situations as he matures and gets more experience. Nice that we don't have to add him to the 40-man for a while when we will know better what his potential is.

[Loosey]

If he turns out to be a #3 pitcher for the Twins for 5-6 years would everyone consider that a success for a #4 overall pick?  Or are the expectations to be a #1 starter when you are drafted that high? 

 

I personally think any pitcher drafted out of high school who has a sustained major league career is a success in my mind whether they are a #1 ace or a journeyman starter.

[birddog]

Agreed you have to get lucky with HS pitchers.

[h2oface]

Folks sure seem to stick with a top pick. Being number 4 overall seems to create a magic cloud of denial around him that continues to cloak reality. Michael Jordan was a tremendous athlete, too. All I have to say about Stewart is.... and I am not from Missouri.......  Show me! I am starting to yawn just hearing or reading your name.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If he turns out to be a #3 pitcher for the Twins for 5-6 years would everyone consider that a success for a #4 overall pick?  Or are the expectations to be a #1 starter when you are drafted that high? 

 

I personally think any pitcher drafted out of high school who has a sustained major league career is a success in my mind whether they are a #1 ace or a journeyman starter.

 

My guess is that most won't view that as a success, but it really probably would be compared to most #4 overall picks in the history of the draft. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Folks sure seem to stick with a top pick. Being number 4 overall seems to create a magic cloud of denial around him that continues to cloak reality. Michael Jordan was a tremendous athlete, too. All I have to say about Stewart is.... and I am not from Missouri.......  Show me! I am starting to yawn just hearing or reading your name.

 

Yup, at some point he'll have to do that. At some point the tools need to turn into skills. The signs are there that it can happen. He'll need to be more consistent with his mechanics, but he's still very young and has still put up solid overall numbers despite the low K rate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Could be.  It seems like a lot of top pitchers also played other sports though.  Was he that much more raw than others? 

 

I honestly don't know the answer to this.

In addition to the great response of markos, I dug up some of my research on Stewart's background too:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21338-keith-law-ranks-twins-minor-league-system-3-seven-in-top-100/?p=439647

[markos]

Context is important when looking at his home run rate. Yes, fewer homers is better, but the Florida State League is brutal on power in general, and Fort Myers is in particular. The entire Miracle team gave up only 35 and hit only 27 in 139 games. The 'average' Miracle pitcher would have given up 4 homers when pitching the same amount of innings as Stewart. 

[Paul Pleiss]

A wise man once said, give me strikeouts or give me death. That man was a fool. Kohl will find his K's and his way. He has the tools to prove you all fools. Boom. Rhyming. That makes it true.

[tobi0040]

 

In addition to the great response of markos, I dug up some of my research on Stewart's background too:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21338-keith-law-ranks-twins-minor-league-system-3-seven-in-top-100/?p=439647

 

Good info Spy.  That is what I thought.  Maybe more raw than most, but not to the point that we should be making a ton of excuses for him 2-3 years later.  

 

A ton of top pitchers played more than one sport.  Many were probabably QB's.  Joe Mauer played QB and basketball and he was in the majors at Kohl's age.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Context is important when looking at his home run rate. Yes, fewer homers is better, but the Florida State League is brutal on power in general, and Fort Myers is in particular. The entire Miracle team gave up only 35 and hit only 27 in 139 games. The 'average' Miracle pitcher would have given up 4 homers when pitching the same amount of innings as Stewart. 

Holy cow, I had no idea it was that severe.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=e932452e

 

That might also have something to do with Stewart's ground ball rate -- I doubt many guys are swinging for the fences under those conditions.

 

And of course, Stewart's total run prevention (including unearned runs, which are especially questionable at lower levels) was notably worse than team/league average in 2015.

 

It wasn't a disastrous season by any means, but it wasn't a particularly good one either in any respect, even accounting for Stewart's age.  Barring a dramatic spring turnaround, he almost certainly should start again at the level in 2016.

[Steve Lein]

 

I don't want people to think I'm down on Stewart the person or anything like that. The area of risk is wound/post surgical wound management. Diabetics just don't heal as well as other people and are more prone to infections.

 

Those are my real areas of concern.

 

I grew up with and had close family friends who were diabetics. That was when I first found out insulin isn't a magic bullet that allows one to live their life just like anyone else.

 

 I am diabetic. This is a bit misleading.

 

We're certainly more prone to "have injury issues," particularly in joints, and recovery. The shoulder is actually a very common issue for diabetics, whether you're an athlete or not (mine is basically shot from playing Town Ball until I was 30).

 

However, it's pretty much an exponential curve on how this affects us relative to you normal "healthy" humans.

 

If you have good control of your diabetes, such as consistent A1C test results below 6% (which is what you likely have with a functioning pancreas), it literally is not affecting you any differently. If you're a consistent 8 or 9% or above, the risks associated are much greater (exponentially so).

 

The being prone to injury, and not being able to recover as well, is related to circulation problems if you have a higher average blood sugar. Blood with a high sugar level is thicker, harder to pump, and can damage small blood vessels - things such as the tissue in your knees and shoulder joints.

 

I quit playing baseball because I tore my ACL. That leg still isn't as strong as it was before then, and I'm certain my diabetes plays a part in that. But I'm also not a professional athlete with all the necessary resources to make this a non-issue if I'm dedicated to it.