Article: Is The Twins System Broken?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Jack Morris received one of the larger FA contracts ever, at the time, correct?

 

I do agree, the core needs to be in place before filling in holes....but you need to fill in holes. McPhail did that, Ryan never has. We'll see if that has changed or not once they are competitive.

 

He got a one-year, $3 million deal with some incentives... But over his previous two seasons in Detroit, he had gone 21-32 with ERAs of 4.86 and 4.51 with K/9 of  6.1 and 5.8, and he was 36. If the Twins would make a similar type of move now, they would be beaten up on here and on Twitter for bringing back "one of us," a has been. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

In my strange way of thinking.

I always wonder how someone outside of the room writes an opinion about how things are done inside the room and it's quoted as gospel.

Meanwhile when those inside the room speak... They are torn apart. I love bloggers and writers and I read them and enjoy a bunch of them but I don't understand how the things they type from outside the room seemingly carry more weight.

I have no idea if Terry Ryan is better or worse than Neil Huntington... How could I.

I know that I don't always agree with Terry Ryan but I refuse to disrespect him because he has a different idea than I do.

Is the system broken? I don't know but I doubt it because water is still coming out of the tap.

 

This might be the best response  to this topic I've read on this site... and this topic comes up a lot... Thank you!

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think it's broken, but it could use some polishing.

[Blake]

It seems to me the Twins are not avoiding analytics so much as they are trying to balance numbers with the actual person on the field.

 

At the end of the day, human beings still have to play the game. It's a great thing to have a guy on the team who is All World, with great numbers, but, if that same guy, coughPuigcough, is clubhouse cancer, it can bring down the whole team.

 

Numbers will tell you what the person is capable of, but they will not tell you who the person is.

 

[SF Twins Fan]

This article seems to come out at a strange time in my opinion. The Twins were always in the running from 2001 to 2010 to make the playoffs. 2011 they came back with basically the same team as 2010, however the entire team was decimated by injuries. From 2012 to 2014 they were really, really bad - that also allowed them to draft Buxton, Gordon, Berrios, ect, ect. 2015 they took a step forward and many prospects are close to making it to the majors. No one knows how those prospects are going to turn out. Will they all become great - probably not. Will they all fail - probably not. Hopefully the front office hit on enough of the prospects to make these last 4 years worth it. This article would make more sense in 3 to 5 years if the Twins don't make consistent runs are the World Series and the majority of these prospects fail. To write this article right at the beginning of potential significant improvements seems strange.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This article seems to come out at a strange time in my opinion. The Twins were always in the running from 2001 to 2010 to make the playoffs. 2011 they came back with basically the same team as 2010, however the entire team was decimated by injuries. From 2012 to 2014 they were really, really bad - that also allowed them to draft Buxton, Gordon, Berrios, ect, ect. 2015 they took a step forward and many prospects are close to making it to the majors. No one knows how those prospects are going to turn out. Will they all become great - probably not. Will they all fail - probably not. Hopefully the front office hit on enough of the prospects to make these last 4 years worth it. This article would make more sense in 3 to 5 years if the Twins don't make consistent runs are the World Series and the majority of these prospects fail. To write this article right at the beginning of potential significant improvements seems strange.

 

I'd think that only writing this article with hindsight would get ripped to shreds.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

He got a one-year, $3 million deal with some incentives... But over his previous two seasons in Detroit, he had gone 21-32 with ERAs of 4.86 and 4.51 with K/9 of  6.1 and 5.8, and he was 36. If the Twins would make a similar type of move now, they would be beaten up on here and on Twitter for bringing back "one of us," a has been. 

 

I'm not sure what that has to do with the point I was making........has TR ever brought in a big time FA or traded top prospects for an elite player to close the gap? Tyner DH'd one of the years they were in contention, IIRC. McPhail brought in FAs to close the holes. 

 

But, changing the topic was great for not talking about the topic......will this FO close the holes, unlike they did in the last run, or not? That, to me, will answer the question about the system, because that is what was broken in the last run.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He got a one-year, $3 million deal with some incentives... But over his previous two seasons in Detroit, he had gone 21-32 with ERAs of 4.86 and 4.51 with K/9 of  6.1 and 5.8, and he was 36. If the Twins would make a similar type of move now, they would be beaten up on here and on Twitter for bringing back "one of us," a has been. 

Actually Morris got a 3 year, $7 mil deal, with salaries of 3/2/2 but with opt-outs after each year.  Or, in other words, two player options.  He earned $700k in incentives in 1991.  Max value of the deal, with all incentives, was 3/11.

 

K/9 rates were a lot lower circa 1989-1990, Morris was actually above league average both years.  His ERAs were terrible, but he did lead the league in starts and complete games in 1990.

 

It was a different time, so it's hard to compare.  The risk of a "front-loaded" 3/7 contract with an opt-out seems so quaint.  After 1992, Puckett was earning $6 mil AAV.

 

Interesting that both Morris and Chili Davis were "new look" free agents, meaning they got to opt out of their current deals and become FA that winter as part of baseball's collusion settlement.

 

This article suggests we failed to land Boddicker, Gibson, Gaetti, and Berenguer that winter before we landed Morris, Davis, Pagliarulo, and Bedrosian -- seems like a pretty busy offseason!

 

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=266&dat=19910206&id=HPQrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=QmoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1472,3221114&hl=en

Edited February 23, 2016 by spycake

[IndyTwinsFan]

 

Entering 2016, the Twins have plenty of positions that need improvement. The rotation is average at best. There are too many players available for 3B and, at least to start the season, not enough competent OF. A veteran RP would be nice. The young players have yet to reach their prime or, in some cases, show their worth.

 

There has been almost no attempt to improve the roster because Ryan doesn't wheel and deal. He has no desire to make big trades. I would like to see a different GM at the end of the season, someone who is willing and able to make the moves necessary to compete at the highest level. (Actually, I would've liked to have seen a new GM last year)

 

But is the FO broke? Hardly. The Twins record improved by 13 wins last year. They have a top-five prospect list. There is system depth at almost every position. Ryan acquired a C, a position where depth was an issue. He convinced the Pohlads to take a flyer on a Korean power hitter. The greatest outrages are Sano's move to the OF (a legit argument, IMO) and the need for a fourth RP (a lot of angst for maybe 0.5 WAR improvement). The Twins are not a pile of disparate pieces.

 

Like it or not, Ryan has a clear plan to build from within. Whether it will result in a World Series win is an open question.  It will probably be one more year before the Twins are even ready to compete for the division.

 

Under a best case, a different GM could have made a couple of moves to improve chances this year - at some risk. So what? It's time for Spring Training. We have an interesting roster taking to the fields. A time to set a little bit of cynicism aside and enjoy a young team with a lot of potential.

 

We'll get the chance to see several young power arms arrive to help the bullpen this year. Berrios will arrive. Plenty of young position players will be worth watching as they develop in 2016. I'm excited for the season, the chance to see these youngsters take the field. Why? Because the FO is not broke. The Twins are a team on the rise. Let Cincinnati bring out the pitchforks for their FO.

Very well put, dbminn!   Can't argue or debate a single thing you said here.

[REPETE]

 

This article seems to come out at a strange time in my opinion. The Twins were always in the running from 2001 to 2010 to make the playoffs. 2011 they came back with basically the same team as 2010, however the entire team was decimated by injuries. From 2012 to 2014 they were really, really bad - that also allowed them to draft Buxton, Gordon, Berrios, ect, ect. 2015 they took a step forward and many prospects are close to making it to the majors. No one knows how those prospects are going to turn out. Will they all become great - probably not. Will they all fail - probably not. Hopefully the front office hit on enough of the prospects to make these last 4 years worth it. This article would make more sense in 3 to 5 years if the Twins don't make consistent runs are the World Series and the majority of these prospects fail. To write this article right at the beginning of potential significant improvements seems strange.

EXACTLY!  During the 00's and winning divisions, everyone was clamoring for "The Twins Way", and the Twins were the darlings of the league for doing it without spending $$$$$.  Does the fact we never won a World Series mean those teams were miserable failures?  Some quotes in these pages seem to point in that direction.  Only two teams make the World Series, and only one wins.  That takes a lot of talent, along with some luck & good fortune: injuries, match ups, catching fire at the right time, etc.    

Now, everyone loves the Royals, and says everyone must build their team like them.  Let's not forget, the Royals dwelled in complete obscurity for 30 years.  The Astros were miserable for just as long.  The Cubs?  Yeah!  The Mets?  Baseball is cyclical.  If you don't have the money to buy players every year (Yankees), when your system develops high first rounders that actually pan out, you win...  As long as they develop, and the FO doesn't screw it up by constantly trading guys who will go on to make the core of the team.  

The fact this team was extremely relevant for a decade, followed by 4 years of the abyss, and now on the verge of being quite relevant again for some time, points towards a system that is far from broken, and may be the next "darling" trend.  

The question really boils down to, is it better to have 8-10 years of a team that is relevant, and with the right luck, can win the World Series?  Or is it better to make blockbuster trades, possibly win the World Series (FAR from a guarantee), then fall back to irrelevance for 10 years?   

[BK432]

 

I don't have a list in front of me, but don't most teams now have a president of baseball operations, or a President that does have baseball experience?  

Why does St. Peter get a pass for the TV deal that we keep hearing is way under market value, I assume he was the one who negotiated it?

 

The sooner they replace Rob Antony, the better

 

I have not heard it is under market value; I have heard that the Twins got less because cable penetration in this market is so low.

[BK432]

 

In my strange way of thinking.

I always wonder how someone outside of the room writes an opinion about how things are done inside the room and it's quoted as gospel.

Meanwhile when those inside the room speak... They are torn apart. I love bloggers and writers and I read them and enjoy a bunch of them but I don't understand how the things they type from outside the room seemingly carry more weight.

I have no idea if Terry Ryan is better or worse than Neil Huntington... How could I.

I know that I don't always agree with Terry Ryan but I refuse to disrespect him because he has a different idea than I do.

Is the system broken? I don't know but I doubt it because water is still coming out of the tap.

 

God this is so sensical -- I'm crying from joy. Thank you, Riverbrian.

[alarp33]

 

I have not heard it is under market value; I have heard that the Twins got less because cable penetration in this market is so low.

 

http://www.raysindex.com/2014/10/rays-next-tv-deal-could-be-worth-80-100-million-per-year.html

 

It's also been a pretty common refrain from the Pohlad Pocket Protectors. 

Edited February 23, 2016 by alarp33

[BK432]

Thanks for sharing this - interesting read. There seems to be a lot of information missing from this though.

 

I don't know what a Pohlad Pocket Protector is so I can't really comment on that. I mean, I know it's a Common Man thing, but I've never really encountered anyone who really fits his bit.

 

http://www.raysindex.com/2014/10/rays-next-tv-deal-could-be-worth-80-100-million-per-year.html

 

It's also been a pretty common refrain from the Pohlad Pocket Protectors. 

 

[formerly33]

 

In my strange way of thinking.

I always wonder how someone outside of the room writes an opinion about how things are done inside the room and it's quoted as gospel.

Meanwhile when those inside the room speak... They are torn apart. I love bloggers and writers and I read them and enjoy a bunch of them but I don't understand how the things they type from outside the room seemingly carry more weight.

I have no idea if Terry Ryan is better or worse than Neil Huntington... How could I.

I know that I don't always agree with Terry Ryan but I refuse to disrespect him because he has a different idea than I do.

Is the system broken? I don't know but I doubt it because water is still coming out of the tap.

I think people jump to praise what people outside the room say because it's similar to what they believe - remember, they, too, are outside the room.

 

I guess it's sort of like how people are quick to jump onto Trump's bandwagon, not because he's qualified to be the POTUS, but because he's so much like them.

 

I hope comparing these people to Trump supporters doesn't equate to calling someone a "moron" or "idiot."

[alarp33]

 

Thanks for sharing this - interesting read. There seems to be a lot of information missing from this though.

 

I don't know what a Pohlad Pocket Protector is so I can't really comment on that. I mean, I know it's a Common Man thing, but I've never really encountered anyone who really fits his bit.

 

People who look for reasons to defend the Pohlad's for not spending money.  A fairly common refrain you will read here, and other places is that they cannot spend more money because they do not have a TV deal like many other teams.  While they will never have a deal like the LA teams, etc... it does appear the one they signed was pretty terrible for the team.  My point is, if that is St. Peter's job, why doesn't he get more blame for that?

[BK432]

 

People who look for reasons to defend the Pohlad's for not spending money.  A fairly common refrain you will read here, and other places is that they cannot spend more money because they do not have a TV deal like many other teams.  While they will never have a deal like the LA teams, etc... it does appear the one they signed was pretty terrible for the team.  My point is, if that is St. Peter's job, why doesn't he get more blame for that?

 

I guess my response would be that we have nowhere near the information needed to make that sort of jump (that it's a bad deal). If it is truly that bad I sure hope we have someone with journalistic skills do an investigation.

 

I read pretty much every thread on here, and I have never seen anyone make the argument that we can't spend one dime more on payroll than we currently are because of our TV deal.

 

The Twins certainly can spend more money on payroll than they are right now. And I think they probably will as the potential contending core advance to their collective prime. However, I think it's safe to say that our budget likely will never have the top-end limit that some larger markets will due to TV deals that are more lucrative. That's just reality, I suppose.

 

And, I don't think that makes me a Pohlad Pocket Protector (whatever the heck that is) to say that.

[dxpavelka]

The game is still played on the field by guys who can pitch, hit, catch, throw and run.  When the analytics guys master those skills I'll put a little more faith in them.

[DaveW]

 

The game is still played on the field by guys who can pitch, hit, catch, throw and run.  When the analytics guys master those skills I'll put a little more faith in them.

:banghead:

[Hrbowski]

 

I think the Twins' system would work just fine, if they would sign legit FAs to fill the holes once they are contenders (or trade prospects for them). You know, like McPhail did, and Ryan didn't, before.

 

We'll see....we'll see.

Wasn't Nolasco a legit FA?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wasn't Nolasco a legit FA?

 

A 4th number 4/5 starter? No.

[Hrbowski]

 

A 4th number 4/5 starter? No.

What is?

[Mike Sixel]

When Tyner is your DH, a hitter.

 

When you are flush with number 3-5 starters, a number 1/2 type. When you have a lot of 1B/DH types, not another DH......

 

FA should, imo, be about filling a hole or three......with big time, elite, players, occasionally.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wasn't Nolasco a legit FA?

He was the first in that price tier to accept a Twins offer.  Nolasco was more of a reactive signing to the depths of 2011-2013 rather than a proactive signing for 2014-2017.

[Platoon]

I think people jump to praise what people outside the room say because it's similar to what they believe - remember, they, too, are outside the room.

 

I guess it's sort of like how people are quick to jump onto Trump's bandwagon, not because he's qualified to be the POTUS, but because he's so much like them.

 

I hope comparing these people to Trump supporters doesn't equate to calling someone a "moron" or "idiot."

Or you could be a pragmatist, and come to the conclusion that since you aren't in the room you have an opinion based on what's outside the room! For example W/L records? Or if you want to do deeper, offering big money to a moderate NL pitcher when you have NO chance of winning anything? As for the Donald, if I wanted to read about him, I would go to a real news site, like Fox! . In closing, remember that people who are, shall we say, "pro TR" aren't in the room either! :). That said, there's nothing wrong with witty reparte!

[birddog]

TR can't win--in the eyes of most TD fans. First everyone says "let the young kids play" and now they want to fill in the holes with veterans. TR is going to fill in the holes with the kids because he thinks they will make us better than overpriced veterans would. And I wholeheartedly agree with him.

 

I had hoped we would get Aroldis Chapman. It didn't work out so we had to move on. I'm glad TR didn't panic with our bullpen. We have the young arms, now coach them up and give them a chance to show us what they can do. In the short time TR has retaken control, I think he has done an exceptional job at turning around the whole organization. We should be pretty good at the MLB level, and we have young talent in the minors comparable to almost any other organization. We'd love to have the Mets' starting pitching, but so would 28 other teams. 

 

These next two years are critical to see if the young talent is what we had hoped for and what areas we need to improve upon, and I am sure TR will do just that after watching games at every level. He is a dedicated baseball man who knows talent and he will get the job done.

[Kwak]

"Is the system broken"--implies that there was some finely-tuned machine.  The Twins were succeeding in a weak division--Cleveland was torn apart because they couldn't afford their top players anymore;  KC was a rudderless sailing ship with two broken masts;  Detroit was totally abysmal for the first half of the decade--until the owner tore-down the structure and rebuilt with an enormous amount of money; and Chicago which had some good people and good players wasn't a finely-tuned machine either--though they did manage to win a WS once.  In short, the competition bar was lower for the Twins than most other teams but [some] fans look nostalgic on the success and others point-out that post-season results were almost a complete disaster.  However, the owners did get that tax-subsidized stadium and can stand on an aircraft carrier and declare "mission accomplished".  Success is in the eyes of the beholder.

[old nurse]

 

http://www.raysindex.com/2014/10/rays-next-tv-deal-could-be-worth-80-100-million-per-year.html

 

It's also been a pretty common refrain from the Pohlad Pocket Protectors. 

8 points on the plot of the analysis graph. There are more teams than that. Also they used ratings rather than total households in the cable network. Cable penetration is poor for the Twins market. I am not sure how broad the FSN coverage is, and how many systems would move it to premium as it gets more expensive. One of the reasons I thought the Twins failed at their own sports network was the inability to get on basic plans.  Those backwards Twins trying something out of the bax.

When looking at the contract, how did it  compare to what other teams were earning versus the market size. 

 

[Riverbrian]

8 points on the plot of the analysis graph. There are more teams than that. Also they used ratings rather than total households in the cable network. Cable penetration is poor for the Twins market. I am not sure how broad the FSN coverage is, and how many systems would move it to premium as it gets more expensive. One of the reasons I thought the Twins failed at their own sports network was the inability to get on basic plans.  Those backwards Twins trying something out of the bax.

When looking at the contract, how did it  compare to what other teams were earning versus the market size.

 

I know the topic has been raised before but in order to keep this discussion on topic. I created a new Market Size/Revenue Discussion

 

Now back to the Broken System debate

 

Go Twins!!!

[old nurse]

One of the reasons that breaks the system is the cash flow. It is pertinent to the discussion.