Article: On The Twins' Cheapness And Showing Your Work

[nicksaviking]

 

Really the Twins should of been aiming for this year to be active it free agency. You know about when your highly touted prospects are going to become major league players.

 

But they don't know where the holes are. Everyone wanted the bullpen upgraded even though there are at least a half dozen young arms who might excel in that role. Or they might not. We don't know yet, I'm OK waiting to find out.

[terrydactyls]

I think most of the guys listed below, that have been signed in the last couple of years, would have helped.  I know this list is kind of cherry picked for guys that have worked out, but most of them were at the top of their free agent class where the twins are unwilling to spend.

 

David Price

Brian McCann

Andrew Miller

Russell Martin

Jose Abreau

David Robertson

Justin Upton

Hisashi Iwakuma

Joaquin Benoit

Adrian Beltre

Yu Darvish

Yoenis Cespedes

Jon Lester

Jhonny Peralta

Zack Greinke

Scott Kazmir

James Shields

Hunter Pence

 

So you spend $400 million on Price and Greinke; lock them up for eight years; and what would have happened? You go from a 70 win team to a 85 win team? Still might not be in the playoffs. And you've financially put yourself in a major bind when their skills are rapidly dimishing and Sano, Buxton, Perkins, etc are looking at new contracts. Bad, bad idea. Skip the spending when you aren't winning and possess a great farm system. If Sano and Buxton hadn't both missed 2014, this might have been year 1 of a long reign. Instead, start planning for 2017 and the free agent class of 2018.

[drjim]

 

so I won't read "there wasn't anyone good to sign, it was a terrible class" all off season next year?

 

You can probable read anything you want to and we all look forward to the responses.

 

But I do think it is possible they won't really have such a need that would make overpaying for a free agent a good use of resources. Much more likely we see money being applied to signing the young guys to extensions.

[dgwills]

 

But they don't know where the holes are. Everyone wanted the bullpen upgraded even though there are at least a half dozen young arms who might excel in that role. Or they might not. We don't know yet, I'm OK waiting to find out.

You're not wrong. What I was saying is that they signed some starting pitchers when they shouldn't of. I think this often, but try not to say it. To much hindsight. To easy to say now. I did not think those teams could of been competitive either, so that colors my views as well. If you run the Twins you can't really say you're punting this year, but still want people to buy season tickets. 

I take it back. We should really just discuss what the Twins should do from this point forward.

[Blake]

 

You look back to 2011 or 2012 and think, if we were bad to the point of:

 

-No money should be spent to upgrade the roster because we were that bad

 

-We had next to nothing on the way from the farm to help

 

That means a 3-5 year spell of being awful. There is literally no way around it.  We really, really should have traded 28-29 year old Joe Mauer.  Now I get that this looks brilliant in hindsight.  But We had to know that a 33-34 year old Joe was not going to be the same player and likely not catching anymore, so it should have been explored.  I get the PR issue.  But I am not sure fans would be too irate nowadays.

 

I am not a toe in the water type of guy.  You are either in or you are out.

Yeah, but the Twins needed someone to put fans in the seats. Joe "MVP batting title" Mauer put fans in the seats. A team of forgettable cheap FA's does not. Also, what happens when you actually get to the point of needing to sign FA's and you've a reputation of signing people who are nothing more than MLB filler? 

 

Heck, the Twins may have already paid the price for having that reputation.

 

Ordinary MN Twins fans are not as knowledgeable as the fans on Twins Daily. Admit it, we're all baseball junkies to a certain extent. We all understand the need to dump players and start the rebuild.

 

Management, however, still needs the casual fan to attend games.*

 

*My $.25. Even with inflation, we all know what it's worth.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You've been asking for bullpen upgrades all off season, how were Stauffer's 2013-14 numbers really much different than the guys you wanted this year?

 

Stauffer wasn't any good last year, that happens all the time with free agent relievers, more so than any other position.

I think I just posted somewhere today how Stauffer's 2013-2014 was very different from the guys we wanted this winter.  He was a mop-up man (and spot starter) in San Diego.

[markos]

 

I see this said a lot but I can't really agree with it.

 

If you're a team looking for mid-season help, how much more are you willing to give up for a Liriano, Morneau, or Willingham if the other team tacks on $3-4m? In my eyes, it's not much. Instead of getting the 14th best prospect, they offer up their 12th best prospect.

 

On the other hand, the Twins just handed away $3-4m for a prospect who might be worth a handful of dollars more than the prospect they'd receive without giving up a dime. Sure, it's not my money and all that but that's a pretty bad deal for the Twins. They're handing away millions to get thousands in return.

 

Now, this might work on occasion when a team is searching the couch cushions for mid-season cash but I suspect that situation arises infrequently. If it comes down to $2-3m and a late-season run, what owner isn't going to spring for that cash? It's likely they'll make it right back in fan attendance in August and September as everyone comes to watch a competitive team make a run at the postseason (never mind the increased ticket sales and revenue that bleed into the following season).

 

This argument seems like a good idea in theory but I don't think it's quite that cut-and-dry in reality.

I agree that this is all dependent on the right situation, and from the outside we don't have a good handle on how frequently those situations show up. But as a pseudo-rebuttal, I would point out that:

 

a) Tacking on $3-4M probably isn't going to net a huge increase in prospect value, but it might allow you to significantly increase upside potential. So instead of having to choose from a list of unexciting mid-20s AAA players, you could choose from rookie-ball teenagers with some upside. Overall expected value might not be very different, but much high potential payout.

It isn't just improving the quality of the return, but also increasing the total number of prospects thrown in. Essentially this allows them to buy additional talent.

c) Yes, owners may bump up spending a little bit to make some deadline moves, but many teams (Pit, KC, TB, Cle, et al) do have fairly firm limits. So the extra $3-4M that the Twins could cover would be the difference between those teams making, for example, three moves instead of just two at the deadline. It at least maximizes the teams in the conversation, and it allows the opposing GM to make the determination of what is more important to them in the moment: money or future prospects.

 

Unfortunately, I believe Terry Ryan is on record of explicitly rejecting the possibility of paying players to play for other teams.

 

Unless the Twins operate their finances different than I currently understand, the money they save during these trades provides ZERO benefit for future teams. Marginal improvements in quantity or quality, even at costs that in other circumstances would seem ridiculous, are better than nothing.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, but the Twins needed someone to put fans in the seats.

The Twins didn't put a whole lot of fans in the seats the past few years... and what ones that came were there for the Target Field, warehouse district experience more than seeing Mauer or the Hunter reunion...

[Rosterman]

Your typical team has space for one (maybe two) franchise players. Mauer has one of the spots.

 

The Twins are willing to spend 55% of revenue on payroll,which is a joke. What do you do with the other 45%...and how much of ANY profit the Twins made the apst few years went to buy down their investment in the stadium (which more than doubled their worth) and whose pocket did it go into (do owners make as much, say, as commissioners in their paychecks?).

 

You can invest in free agents. The Twins did the last couple of seasons. Wisely? Who knows. But I doubt that any of the top-flight names were busting down the door to get a Twins offer, which has long been a problem. Even with the worthwhile signing of Josh WIllingham, in the past, Michael Cuddyer managed to still get a much higher paycheck in what had become a diminishing market for outfield talent. Go figure.

 

You have to take chances on Payroll. You have to invest wisely. That is hard when a player gets suspended or injured (look at the rotation). In the past, how could you compete against a team like, say, The Yankees, who are willing to have $30-40 million sitting on the disabled list or in lost contracts each year. The Twins seem to go into major turmoil when they lose one guy, be it Mauer, Nathan, Santana or what.

 

It is tough running a major league team. You don't know how the prospects will pan out. You can be Oakland and flip your roster 40-50% each season, running a revolving door between vets and promise.

 

You can argue the actually need to do a longterm expensive contract (Mauer) and cringe when you hear what a Trout or others may be offered in the future (was St. Louis wise to let Pujols walk). At what point to you overpay a Sano and hope he stays reasonable, or you let him become someone else's worry.

 

We just don't really know how to follow the money in this sport. What really goes where (draft picks, international signings, minor league operations) and what ownership takes for their pockets or reinvestment in stadium bricks. Players make the most of it and demand whatever they can get for their services, and everytime someone gets a big contract, it makes it harder to sign certain levels of players, and leaves many others out in the cold as "not worth it."

 

The Twins always seemed happy to put a competitive team on the field, to hopefully draw the fans and aim towards the playoffs. Is a competitive team one that plays slightly above .500 (like last year's team) or comes in close to a spot in the post season (also last year's team). The assumption is that EVERY team does WANT to be competitive. (We might see it in the Central in 2016 where f-8 games MIGHT separate the first team from the last).

 

Fantasy baseball began when us common folks wanted to see what kind of team we could put together given x-amount of dollars. We all know how that game works...especially when each year you get to spend for the now, not the hereafter.

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you spend $400 million on Price and Greinke; lock them up for eight years; and what would have happened? You go from a 70 win team to a 85 win team? Still might not be in the playoffs. And you've financially put yourself in a major bind when their skills are rapidly dimishing and Sano, Buxton, Perkins, etc are looking at new contracts. Bad, bad idea. Skip the spending when you aren't winning and possess a great farm system. If Sano and Buxton hadn't both missed 2014, this might have been year 1 of a long reign. Instead, start planning for 2017 and the free agent class of 2018.

 

so, never sign FAs, is that your argument? I just want to understand.....Are you saying it is better to sign massive deals, that will NOT expire by the time you have to pay Sano and Buxton, that's better, more likely?

 

If they extend Perkins, I'll be shocked, btw.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree that this is all dependent on the right situation, and from the outside we don't have a good handle on how frequently those situations show up. But as a pseudo-rebuttal, I would point out that:

 

a) Tacking on $3-4M probably isn't going to net a huge increase in prospect value, but it might allow you to significantly increase upside potential. So instead of having to choose from a list of unexciting mid-20s AAA players, you could choose from rookie-ball teenagers with some upside. Overall expected value might not be very different, but much high potential payout.

It isn't just improving the quality of the return, but also increasing the total number of prospects thrown in. Essentially this allows them to buy additional talent.

c) Yes, owners may bump up spending a little bit to make some deadline moves, but many teams (Pit, KC, TB, Cle, et al) do have fairly firm limits. So the extra $3-4M that the Twins could cover would be the difference between those teams making, for example, three moves instead of just two at the deadline. It at least maximizes the teams in the conversation, and it allows the opposing GM to make the determination of what is more important to them in the moment: money or future prospects.

 

Unfortunately, I believe Terry Ryan is on record of explicitly rejecting the possibility of paying players to play for other teams.

 

Unless the Twins operate their finances different than I currently understand, the money they save during these trades provides ZERO benefit for future teams. Marginal improvements in quantity or quality, even at costs that in other circumstances would seem ridiculous, are better than nothing.

Good points that I had not considered.

 

It does seem that once August rolled around, the conversations in Pittsburgh and KC were simply whether ownership would approve adding payroll for Morneau and Willingham.  It does stand to reason that we could have kept the upper hand in negotiations by removing that question from the equation.  Without having to convince ownership of anything, maybe we get the trade done July 31st for a lower level lotto ticket?  Or at least younger fringe 40-man guys like we netted for Liriano's ace potential in 2012?

 

Not a huge deal, but agreed it was an avenue worth exploring that we did not do.

[TheLeviathan]

 

A key point that year was that it was the worst pitching fa class of the last decade or so, so it is not as easy as just saying insert player x there.

 

I would like to have seen more aggression on one hand, but on the other, that was a bad year to do it for reasons outside the Twins control.

 

Scott Feldman, Shaun Marcum, Chris Young, and others all represented better upside moves for the Twins.  I included Marcum as an example that it doesn't always work, but Feldman paid off nicely for the Cubs.  

[nicksaviking]

 

I think I just posted somewhere today how Stauffer's 2013-2014 was very different from the guys we wanted this winter.  He was a mop-up man (and spot starter) in San Diego.

 

Who? Aside from Mark Lowe who we've already discussed as a guy who was underrated, I don't see free agent pitchers in 2015-16 that had markedly better numbers than Stauffer last year.

 

Stauffer had three starts in 2014, other than that he was largely one-inning relief pitcher. His peripherals in 2013-14 were better than Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria in 2015 and were inline with Ryan Madson.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Scott Feldman, Shaun Marcum, Chris Young, and others all represented better upside moves for the Twins.  I included Marcum as an example that it doesn't always work, but Feldman paid off nicely for the Cubs.  

Thank you. Marcum was the name I was trying to remember earlier in the thread.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Who? Aside from Mark Lowe who we've already discussed as a guy who was underrated, I don't see free agent pitchers in 2015-16 that had markedly better numbers than Stauffer last year.

 

Stauffer had three starts in 2015, other than that he was largely one-inning relief pitcher. His peripherals in 2013-14 were better than Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria in 2015 and were inline with Ryan Madson.

Stauffer was a mop-up man in San Diego.  His three relief seasons in San Diego had the following leverage indexes: 0.77, 0.85, and 0.68 (and even those were broken up by an attempted return to starting).  You might as well compare his numbers to 2013 Swarzak for all it mattered to his market value (and at least Swarzak was averaging multiple innings per appearance, which is probably more desirable in a mop-up man than one-inning stints).  Heck, Stauffer himself was seeking the chance to start again in 2015, from what I understand.

 

Clippard has a career leverage index of 1.44, Soria 1.67, Madson 1.33, Benoit 1.33, etc.  They each have years of experience as top-flight, trusted setup men (if not closers).  They've all previously reaped big FA contracts or strong trade returns. They are not comparable acquisitions to Tim Stauffer circa last winter.  Why the heck would San Diego have held on to him in that role if he had anything close to the value of those top setup men?

 

Stauffer's actual usage in Minnesota, where he was in full epic meltdown / injury mode, resulted in a 0.62 leverage index, not that much different than his usage in San Diego during his "good" years.  He was not seen as a good pitcher by San Diego or arguably by anyone, given the deal he signed and the role he had in Minnesota.

Edited February 22, 2016 by spycake

[Boom Boom]

I criticize the Twins for many reasons. On payroll, though, I would only knock them if they used it as an excuse to not improve the team.

 

If Ryan was to be quoted tomorrow as saying "sure, we'd love to bring in a major league reliever, but we've got Mauer and we're up against the payroll," I would let loose with the criticism.

[Mike Sixel]

You think they will admit that, even if true?

[Monkeypaws]

Find it hard to believe anybody who has been a Twins fan would actually believe spending money on free agents was the key to success. This organization has always lived and died by the quality of its homegrown talent.

 

Looking at the system, it looks like the Twins are on the upswing. 

 

When they spend money, it is quite often a fail. Development, and a nice trade thrown in, that has been the Twins way.

 

The difference with Target Field was supposed to be keeping our stars, not poaching other those of other teams.

[tobi0040]

 

I criticize the Twins for many reasons. On payroll, though, I would only knock them if they used it as an excuse to not improve the team.

If Ryan was to be quoted tomorrow as saying "sure, we'd love to bring in a major league reliever, but we've got Mauer and we're up against the payroll," I would let loose with the criticism.

 

So he has to say he has a payroll limitation?  I go off actions. 

 

It is 100% obvious the Pohlad's and Terry Ryan have had the discussion.  Keep repeating that we are supporting and that you can add to make the team better.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Find it hard to believe anybody who has been a Twins fan would actually believe spending money on free agents was the key to success. This organization has always lived and died by the quality of its homegrown talent.

 

Looking at the system, it looks like the Twins are on the upswing. 

 

When they spend money, it is quite often a fail. Development, and a nice trade thrown in, that has been the Twins way.

 

The difference with Target Field was supposed to be keeping our stars, not poaching other those of other teams.

 

My favorite straw man in the budget discussions. No one is saying FA is more important than drafting and developing well. 

[tobi0040]

 

Find it hard to believe anybody who has been a Twins fan would actually believe spending money on free agents was the key to success. This organization has always lived and died by the quality of its homegrown talent.

 

Looking at the system, it looks like the Twins are on the upswing. 

 

When they spend money, it is quite often a fail. Development, and a nice trade thrown in, that has been the Twins way.

 

The difference with Target Field was supposed to be keeping our stars, not poaching other those of other teams.

 

In three years on this site, I have never heard anyone say that the best way to build a team is through free agency. 

[old nurse]

 

Scott Feldman, Shaun Marcum, Chris Young, and others all represented better upside moves for the Twins.  I included Marcum as an example that it doesn't always work, but Feldman paid off nicely for the Cubs.  

Of the 13 or so pitchers that signed one year contracts with new teams after 2012 Lirano and Feldman  were really worked out.

[drjim]

 

Scott Feldman, Shaun Marcum, Chris Young, and others all represented better upside moves for the Twins.  I included Marcum as an example that it doesn't always work, but Feldman paid off nicely for the Cubs.  

 

Feldman was the one guy who (really) worked out. Young didn't pitch in the majors and Marcum blew out in a couple of months, as I'm sure the Twins realized he would. I remember the big debate over Marcum and it was all silly because of the medicals.

 

So yes, Twins did not sign the one upside guy that would have been a good signing - though I'm skeptical they would have turned him into Arrieta either.

[alarp33]

 

Find it hard to believe anybody who has been a Twins fan would actually believe spending money on free agents was the key to success. This organization has always lived and died by the quality of its homegrown talent.

 

Looking at the system, it looks like the Twins are on the upswing. 

 

When they spend money, it is quite often a fail. Development, and a nice trade thrown in, that has been the Twins way.

 

The difference with Target Field was supposed to be keeping our stars, not poaching other those of other teams.

 

Success? If that is the tried and true method, maybe it is time to change things up.  Seeing as they have not won a playoff game in 11 years, and have won 1 playoff series in 25 years.  

[drjim]

 

Of the 13 or so pitchers that signed one year contracts with new teams after 2012 Lirano and Feldman  were really worked out.

 

And realistically Liriano wasn't coming back.

[howieramone2]

 

In three years on this site, I have never heard anyone say that the best way to build a team is through free agency. 

I have.

[old nurse]

 

 

In three years on this site, I have never heard anyone say that the best way to build a team is through free agency. 

Neither did Monkeypaws.

The 2012-2014 Twins could have spent 20 million a year on free agents more than they did and the end product would still be a losing team. You would have to cherry pick the names.  In than game of if, rather than Correa they had signed Blanton, they would have been worse off.  Hindsight would make it easy to find the right signings. Russel Martin was a steal for Pittsburgh.  If  you have a hole or two, you can fill in with free agency. to build upon the success you have. Near the bottom, you are not going to build success through free agency

[old nurse]

 

 

And realistically Liriano wasn't coming back.

Only if you signed a new manager and pitching coach. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Feldman was the one guy who (really) worked out. Young didn't pitch in the majors and Marcum blew out in a couple of months, as I'm sure the Twins realized he would. I remember the big debate over Marcum and it was all silly because of the medicals.

 

So yes, Twins did not sign the one upside guy that would have been a good signing - though I'm skeptical they would have turned him into Arrieta either.

 

My only point to make was that there was a pitcher to get that year that had more upside.  The problem the Twins have isn't necessarily the "who" but the "why".  

 

They are content to go for virtually no upside as long as they think the floor is high enough, but in 2012 that was a really bad way of approaching it.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of the 13 or so pitchers that signed one year contracts with new teams after 2012 Lirano and Feldman were really worked out.

Kazmir. Had they not been contending, the Indians could have flipped him.