Article: Seth's Top 30 Minnesota Twins Prospects 2016

[Seth Stohs]

As I wrote last week, there are national Top 100 lists out, and there are national and local Top 10, 15, 20, 30 and 40 prospect lists out there. Each September, following the Minor League season, I run a preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospect ranking. Then we spend three months researching and writing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, and in there, I submit my “official” top 30 list.

 

Since that book has now been out for six or seven weeks, I’ll post my Top 30 Twins prospect rankings publically. (for those who didn’t get a paperbackor electronic copyhere yet)

 

Next week, we’ll start the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect list which will be based on the thoughts of Twins Daily writers and contributors. As I wrote about in the What To Make Of All These Prospect Rankings article last week, we all have our own personal thoughts and rankings, but the Twins Daily list will bring them all together.With that, let’s start looking at my personal Top 30 prospect rankings for 2016, starting at #30. I’ll include a tweet-length comment on each player and then show if and where that prospect ranks on Baseball America’s (31), MLB.com’s (30), Keith Law’s (10) and John Sickels’ (20) Twins prospect rankings.

 

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#30 - Travis Harrison - OF - 23

Supplemental first-round pick in 2011, seems like he’s been around forever, but he’ll be just 23 throughout the 2016 season. Home run power hasn’t come yet, but the potential remains.

 

Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 19, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 16

 

#29 - Brian Navarreto - C - 21

I know I’m out on a limb here because he hasn’t hit at all yet, but he’s got the size, strength and swing to be a good hitter. Defensively, he is tremendous. Powerful arm.

 

Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#28 - Aaron Slegers - RHP - 23

He has the height, though he tops out at maybe 92. He’s got a good pitch mix and remarkable control. How he does in 2016 in Chattanooga will determine a lot. Back-of-rotation potential.

 

Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#27 - Fernando Romero - RHP - 21

Had Tommy John surgery in May of 2014. Missed all of 2015, but rumors out of Instructional League had him throwing in the upper 90s again. Still young, he has big potential as starter.

 

Baseball America: 29, MLB.com: 20, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#26 - Trey Cabbage - 3B - 18 (Q&A)

A tremendous athlete, he signed with the Twins instead of playing for his home state U. of Tennessee. He had a back injury and missed time in 2016, but a smooth swing and power potential.

 

Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 15, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#25 - Daniel Palka - OF/1B -24

Palka came to the Twins in November in exchange for Chris Herrmann. The Georgia Tech alum has a good combination of power and speed, but he also strikes out a lot. Will go to AA.

 

Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: 30, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#24 - Mitch Garver - C - 25 (Q&A)

Former ninth-round senior sign, Garver was our hitter of the year in 2014. He got off to a very slow start in Ft. Myers but ended strong, including in the AFL. Much improved defense.

 

Baseball America: NR, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#23 - Stuart Turner - C - 24

Another season with offensive numbers that don’t look good and somewhat hide a solid second half. Has the size and plate approach to be a better hitter. Defensive reputation and work with pitchers is legit.

 

Baseball America: 16, MLB.com: 17, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 14

 

#22 - Felix Jorge - RHP - 22

Aside from JO Berrios, no other starting pitcher in the Twins system was as consistently good in 2015. Was a given to go at least six innings. Three pitches with a low-90s fastball and youth.

 

Baseball America: 24, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#21 - Jermaine Palacios - SS - 19

His US debut was remarkable. He began in the GCL and hit his way up to Elizabethton where he continued to impress with the bat. Defense wasn’t good, but has a chance to be an OK shortstop.

 

Baseball America: 19, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 12

 

#20 - Travis Blankenhorn - 3B - 19 (Q&A)

Like Cabbage, Blankenhorn was a tremendous high school athlete whose best sport is baseball. Gave up scholarship to Kentucky to sign as Twins 3rd-round pick. Quickly moved to E-Town.

 

Baseball America: 26, MLB.com: 16, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#19 - Randy Rosario - LHP - 21 (Q&A)

Returned from Tommy John surgery midseason. Though his numbers weren’t great in Cedar Rapids, his stuff returned. Hit 97, good pitch mix. Could start. Often compared to Francisco Liriano.

 

Baseball America: 22, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#18 - Jake Reed - RHP - 23

Strong-armed reliever had a frustrating 2016 season after skipping High-A. Sent down to Miracle and did well before returning to Lookouts for playoff run. Another strong AFL performance. Hits mid-90s and gets a ton of movement on fastball and slider.

 

Baseball America: 20, MLB.com: 18, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#17 - Taylor Rogers - LHP - 25

Minor league starting pitcher of the year in 2013 at Ft. Myers, his first full minor league minor league season. Moved up one level each year. Solid starter in Rochester. Dominated lefties. Struggled against righties. Has a legit chance to break camp with Twins as lefty reliever.

 

Baseball America: 14, MLB.com: 13, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#16 - Wander Javier - SS - 17

Previously, I didn’t rank players until they played in the GCL, but the Twins gave Javier $4 million, so he’s someone worth watching. Has all the tools and the size to grow. Could develop power in time, but will need patience as he’s very raw. Most believe he can stick at shortstop.

 

Baseball America: 11, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#15 - Engelb Vielma - SS - 21 (Q&A)

Diminutive, thin shortstop likely won’t accumulate many extra base hits, but his strong singles-hitting performance in the 2016 second half give hope that he can grow as a hitter as he gains strength. He is remarkable defensively, one of the best in minor league baseball. If he can hit at all, he’ll have a long MLB career.

 

Baseball America: 18, MLB.com: 22, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#14 - Alex Meyer - RHP - 26

Rough 2015 season after being one of the best starting pitchers in the International League in 2014. He needed an offseason to regroup and many believe that he can. He’s likely to get another shot as a starter, but the bullpen may be where the future will find him. Still throws hard. Still has a sharp slider. With any control, he can get back to 2014 form.

 

Baseball America: 12, MLB.com: 8, Keith Law: 10, John Sickels: 11

 

#13 - Lewis Thorpe - LHP - 20

Near the end of spring training a year ago, Lewis Thorpe had Tommy John surgery. Last week, he made his return to a mound for the first time and said things felt great. He could return to game action by June. When healthy, he has a 92-94 mph fastball, a good curve ball and change-up and a real understanding of what he wants and needs to do.

 

Baseball America: 13, MLB.com: 14, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 13

 

#12 - JT Chargois - RHP - 25 (Story)

Chargois missed all of 2013 and 2014 due to injuries resulting in Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in 2015 with a fastball that frequently hit triple-digits. He also has a sharp slurve and a good change-up. He was added to the 40-man roster and has a good chance to debut with the Twins in 2016.

 

Baseball America: 15, MLB.com: 11, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 15

 

#11 - Kohl Stewart - RHP - 21

He may not strike many out, but he gives up very little hard contact. He gets a ton of ground balls. He has the pitches. He is very inconsistent and his fastball can range from 90 to 96 mph. He has a good breaking ball and a change-up, though they also are inconsistent. He has a chance to move up my rankings a lot in 2016 as things all come together.

 

Baseball America: 8, MLB.com: 7, Keith Law: 4, John Sickels: 9

 

#10 - Adam Brett Walker - OF - 24 (Q&A)

Power. Yes, it’s true that his power potential is just as high as Miguel Sano. He does have a knack for coming through in big situations. He strikes out a ton. While he walked more in 2015, he also struck out more. Defensively, he is not strong. His arm is certainly questionable. He has one really strong tool, and development of the other tools will determine his MLB future.

 

Baseball America: 17, MLB.com: 10, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: 8

 

#9 - Tyler Jay - LHP - 21

The Twins will have Jay start in 2016 after getting his feet wet in the Miracle bullpen after signing. His floor appears to be a dominant left-handed reliever with the best slider in the organization but his value as the #6 pick in the 2015 draft is much higher if he can be a starter in the big leagues. Most believe he could help Twins in bullpen in 2016, but they will need to develop a good strategy on how to get him to the big leagues as a starter, which will take longer.

 

Baseball America: 5, MLB.com: 3, Keith Law: 5, John Sickels: 5

 

#8 - Jorge Polanco - SS/2B - 22

Signed as a 16-year-old for his great hands and defense at shortstop, Polanco has turned himself into a potentially very good overall hitter. However, now the only real question remaining on Polanco is whether or not he can play enough defense. He really struggled at shortstop the last couple of seasons and some wonder if he can play well enough at second base. His bat is MLB ready now though.

 

Baseball America: 6, MLB.com: 4, Keith Law: 6, John Sickels: 6

 

#7 - Nick Burdi - RHP - 23

We thought we would see Burdi in the big leagues in 2015, and that maybe wasn’t fair. He really struggled the first half of the season in AA, with control and command. He went down to Ft. Myers and turned things around. He returned late to Chattanooga where he did great setting up Chargois in Lookouts championship run. Dominated in Arizona. Showed better control and a strong fastball (98-101) to go with a really sharp slider. Huge potential.

 

Baseball America: 10, MLB.com: 12, Keith Law: 9, John Sickels: 10

 

#6 - Stephen Gonsalves - LHP - 21 (Q&A)

After making eight starts for Cedar Rapids at the end of 2014, he returned to the Kernels for nine more starts to start the 2015 season. He dominated. It took him a few starts to adjust to the Florida State League, but overall he put together some very strong numbers. He has the size and the pitch mix, and has added a pitch in the offseason which should help him. Very smart, confident pitcher who should pitch at two levels in 2016 again.

 

Baseball America: 9, MLB.com: 9, Keith Law: 8, John Sickels: 7

 

#5 - Byung Ho Park - 1B/DH - 29

He’s 29, and it will be very interesting to see how he transitions to MLB from the KBO. Park hit 105 home runs over the last two season in Korea. He will primarily DH and get time at first base. He will strike out a lot, but that power potential is legit. He’s got good size and strength and works hard. He has been in Ft. Myers since Twins Fest, working every day.

 

Baseball America: 7, MLB.com: NR, Keith Law: NR, John Sickels: NR

 

#4 - Nick Gordon - SS - 20

Gordon really struggled from mid-April through mid-May. However, from May 22nd through the rest of the season (84 games), he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760). For a 19-year-old in his first full-season league, that’s pretty impressive (league OPS was .682). Didn’t display a lot of power, but that potential is there as he grows. Defensively, I think he is well above average and can stick at shortstop. Good hands, good range and a strong arm.

 

Baseball America: 4, MLB.com: 5, Keith Law: 7, John Sickels: 4

 

#3 - Max Kepler - OF/1B - 23

Max Kepler has always had the tools. In 2015, those tools turned into skills. He hit for average. He walked more than he struck out. He hit for some doubles power and he showed more home run power late in the season and in the Lookouts playoff run. He took a more aggressive approach, including the leg kick. Defensively, he’s above average in the corners and can adequately play center field as well. Was the Southern League MVP and made his big league debut in 2015. He really does have five-tool potential.

 

Baseball America: 3, MLB.com: 6, Keith Law: 3, John Sickels: 3

 

Photo of Max Kepler by William Parmeter.

#2 - Jose Berrios - RHP - 21

It was another spectacular season for Berrios in 2015. He started the Futures Game for the second straight year. He began the season in Chattanooga before spending the second half in Rochester. He gave up ten runs in his first two starts but generally dominated at both levels. He led minor league baseball in strikeouts and increased his innings count. He has great control and three above average pitches. There are some legit concerns, but there is a good chance that he’s the Twins top pitcher for years to come.

 

Baseball America: 2, MLB.com: 2, Keith Law: 2, John Sickels: 2

 

#1 - Byron Buxton - RHP - 22

Yup, he struggled mightily in his big league debut in 2015. He wasn’t ready. It’s that simple. After missing most of the 2014 season he began 2015 in Chattanooga. His numbers were OK, but he was remarkably inconsistent. He would have two terrible weeks followed by ten amazing games. That would be followed with three rough weeks before two strong weeks. In mid-June, the Twins needed a center fielder and despite knowing he wasn’t ready, the Twins called him up. Unfortunately, he got hurt and missed six weeks. He hit in all 12 games in played on rehab in Rochester, though he didn’t make a lot of hard contact. He returned to the Twins but played sparingly in September. Despite the struggles, nothing changes in a scouting report for Buxton. All of the tools are there. The speed and defense are legitimately elite and make him valuable even if he doesn’t hit. But, he will likely hit pretty well and even show some power, as he did in September when he hit two long home runs. It will be interesting to see how Buxton performs in spring training. Not so much the statistics, but in my mind, it will be all about the quality of his at-bats, specifically his pitch recognition.

 

Baseball America: 1, MLB.com: 1, Keith Law: 1, John Sickels: 1

 

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So there you have it. I know many choose not to include Byung Ho Park or Wander Javier in prospect rankings. That’s fine. The following players would comprise the Honorable Mention category, the next 14 (in alphabetical order):

 

Luke Bard, Lewin Diaz, Ryan Eades, Tanner English, Sam Gibbons,Trevor Hildenberger, Yorman Landa, Mason Melotakis, Amaurys Minier, Brandon Peterson, Johan Quezada, LaMonte Wade, Lachlan Wells. Huascar Ynoa.

Feel free to discuss. I know there are a few guys that many won’t have in their top 30s. I know there are a few guys that I rank higher (and lower) than others. Feel free to ask me any questions. I’ll try to respond as I have time.

 

Again, next week, we will start our 2016 Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospect rankings!

 

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[Paul Pleiss]

Almost unfair to rank Park against all these young men still cutting their teeth on the game of baseball, but he is technically a rookie. It'll be interesting to see how he does with the speed of MLB pitching. I think you're a little high on Burdi, I don't think he's top 10 material, but definitely top 15, and so I don't really have an arguement here except personal preference. Good stuff. I loved to prospect handbook, and I'll keep adding to my colletion year after year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I love Burdi, though I've never seen him live. He got demoted to A+ from AA which I assume is rare, but when he came back to AA at the end he was lights out. I'm not a huge list guy so I like having the one big list all in one page.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Kepler looks too willowy to be a five tool guy. I wonder how well the minor league power will transfer to MLB. At minimum I'd like to see him add some weight. There again, Buxton is built like a reed but can hit the ball a mile.

[clutterheart]

Why is R. Rosario ranked 19 but Landa is an honorable mention?

 

I would think both should be in the upper teens/early 20s

[SarasotaBill]

KLaw 11-19 list:

 

Jake Reed (11)

Lewis Thorpe (12)

Yorman Landa (13)

Dereck Rodriguez (14)

Amaurys Minier (15)

Johan Quezada (16)

Trey Cabbage (17)

Travis Blankenhorn (18)

Mason Melotakis (19)

[nytwinsfan]

 

Why is R. Rosario ranked 19 but Landa is an honorable mention?

I would think both should be in the upper teens/early 20s

I'm guessing because Rosario is a starter, and Landa a reliever. Big difference in upside there.

[Seth Stohs]

 

KLaw 11-19 list:

 

Jake Reed (11)

Lewis Thorpe (12)

Yorman Landa (13)

Dereck Rodriguez (14)

Amaurys Minier (15)

Johan Quezada (16)

Trey Cabbage (17)

Travis Blankenhorn (18)

Mason Melotakis (19)

 

Do you have a link, please? Thanks!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Almost unfair to rank Park against all these young men still cutting their teeth on the game of baseball, but he is technically a rookie. It'll be interesting to see how he does with the speed of MLB pitching. I think you're a little high on Burdi, I don't think he's top 10 material, but definitely top 15, and so I don't really have an arguement here except personal preference. Good stuff. I loved to prospect handbook, and I'll keep adding to my colletion year after year.

 

Yes it's probably completely unfair to rank Park with them, but my criteria has always been "has rookie eligibility."  The tough part about ranking him, for me, is that there is so little to compare to. With most other minor leaguers, there is a ton of information available and I can go back through the last dozen years and try to think of similar players and all that. Well there just isn't a lot of history in the league with hitters from Korea. Park has the power and hte strikeouts, so he could be Sano-like, or he could be AB Walker-like. Kang is the only hitter that's come to the States from the KBO, and he was pretty good, but he was a different type of player, so... I guess we'll see.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I love Burdi, though I've never seen him live. He got demoted to A+ from AA which I assume is rare, but when he came back to AA at the end he was lights out. I'm not a huge list guy so I like having the one big list all in one page.

 

I was surprised with how high I had him. I'm notorious for ranking relievers lower than most, so to have him at 7 (and Chargois at 11, etc.) says something. Big fastball. Terrific slider. He looked like a different pitcher in the AFL, throwing strikes with both pitches . IF he can keep doing that, he'll be up quick.

 

I think demotions from AA to High-A is probably not very unusual at all. Many say that AA is where college relievers will find their true test. It's a big jump. Just last year, Burdi, Jake Reed, Zack Jones and DJ Johnson all started at AA And moved back down to Hi-A. But, sometimes those struggles and maybe getting humbled a little bit is a positive thing long-term in their development.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Kepler looks too willowy to be a five tool guy. I wonder how well the minor league power will transfer to MLB. At minimum I'd like to see him add some weight. There again, Buxton is built like a reed but can hit the ball a mile.

 

Does willowy mean small? Because he's like 6-3, 225... I'll attach a photo of him from yesterday. I think he's a big guy, very, very strong. He told me last year that he was at 220 and wants to get to 240. (Josh Hamilton's size when he was really good)

[SarasotaBill]

Seth,

 

You need an insider account.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4748

 

11-19 are in the text below 1-10 list.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Why is R. Rosario ranked 19 but Landa is an honorable mention?

I would think both should be in the upper teens/early 20s

 

Part of it might be ranking relievers lower than starters... not as a rule, but generally speaking. As much as I believe in Landa and think it was wise to add him to the 40-man roster, I'd like to see him stay healthy for more than a half-season at a time. So, I couldn't put him ahead of the guys I included, but he's definitely immensely talented.

 

Rosario could probably be higher than where I have him based purely on stuff and potential. I kind of like where I have him though. Now going into a full season post Tommy John, hopefully he can make a big leap.

[clutterheart]

 

Part of it might be ranking relievers lower than starters... not as a rule, but generally speaking. As much as I believe in Landa and think it was wise to add him to the 40-man roster, I'd like to see him stay healthy for more than a half-season at a time. So, I couldn't put him ahead of the guys I included, but he's definitely immensely talented.

 

Rosario could probably be higher than where I have him based purely on stuff and potential. I kind of like where I have him though. Now going into a full season post Tommy John, hopefully he can make a big leap.

 

So you think the twins are going to try to keep Rosario as a starter?  I didn't know that.  I thought they were going to leave both in the 'pen.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

KLaw 11-19 list:

 

Jake Reed (11)

Lewis Thorpe (12)

Yorman Landa (13)

Dereck Rodriguez (14)

Amaurys Minier (15)

Johan Quezada (16)

Trey Cabbage (17)

Travis Blankenhorn (18)

Mason Melotakis (19)

 

Some interesting stuff here though. Rodriguez should probably be included in the Honorable Mentions. He was named the Appy League Pitcher of the Year, and he's only been pitching for two years. 2016 is a big year for him though. Finally should get to full season ball, and we'll see how it goes.

 

Cabbage and Blankenhorn will likely be tied together for years. 

 

Law is the one that was so high on Vielma a couple of years ago, ranking him 12th or something, and now that Vielma is on most prospect radars, he isn't in his top 19?

 

I like Quezada. I think Jeremy had him just inside his Top 30. Another high-upside pitcher who has grown a lot and now has an upper-90s fastball. However, he was 21 in the GCL and still not great... 12 walks, 23 K in 21 IP with a 3.80 ERA. 

 

Minier is a guy that the Twins obviously liked enough to give a big bonus to, but he hasn't hit, and he hasn't been good at 3B or LF defensively. Probably just a DH. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

So you think the twins are going to try to keep Rosario as a starter?  I didn't know that.  I thought they were going to leave both in the 'pen.

 

Yeah, Rosario's always been a starter, so they'll definitely keep him there... at least for the foreseeable future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kepler looks too willowy to be a five tool guy. I wonder how well the minor league power will transfer to MLB. At minimum I'd like to see him add some weight. There again, Buxton is built like a reed but can hit the ball a mile.

I don't know about the willowy part, but Kepler has definitely been a doubles/triples guy in the minors.  Not unlike Aaron Hicks' minor league power numbers, although he did rack up doubles/triples at a pretty high rate last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Does willowy mean small? Because he's like 6-3, 225... I'll attach a photo of him from yesterday. I think he's a big guy, very, very strong. He told me last year that he was at 220 and wants to get to 240. (Josh Hamilton's size when he was really good)

Is there a source that updates those numbers year to year?  Kepler is still listed at 205 everywhere.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is there a source that updates those numbers year to year?  Kepler is still listed at 205 everywhere.

 

The Twins do their physicals and they have an official record. I don't know how it gets out to Baseball Reference or MILB.com, or fangraphs or other places. My source was Kepler, but that was probably last August. Like I said, I think he actually looks bigger, stronger now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jay seems too low on your list based on your own comments.  "Floor appears to be a dominant left-handed reliever with the best slider in the organization" but you have him 9th?  Just ahead of Walker, and behind Polanco, Burdi, Gonsalves, and Park?  You must think Jay has near zero potential to start or something, to rank him that low with that floor.

 

For clarification, what exactly do you mean by "dominant left-handed reliever"?  Is there a MLB comp for what you call Jay's floor?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Jay seems too low on your list based on your own comments.  "Floor appears to be a dominant left-handed reliever with the best slider in the organization" but you have him 9th?  Just ahead of Walker, and behind Polanco, Burdi, Gonsalves, and Park?  You must think Jay has near zero potential to start or something, to rank him that low with that floor.

 

For clarification, what exactly do you mean by "dominant left-handed reliever"?  Is there a MLB comp for what you call Jay's floor?

 

Yeah, maybe a little low on him, wondering if he'll be able to make that transition to starting. A lot of people think he can. We'll see. 

 

Dominant lefty relievers include Will Smith, Glen Perkins... Matt Thornton 8-10 years ago. Obviously his floor isn't that high, but people definitely believe in that slider and the fastball gets up to 96-97 out of the bullpen. I'd just say any left-handed reliever that you'd be comfortable in the 8th or 9th innings. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes it's probably completely unfair to rank Park with them, but my criteria has always been "has rookie eligibility."

FYI, by that criteria, John Hicks is also still eligible.  Given that he is only a year older than Garver, has already reached MLB with apparently well regarded defense, and has also matched Garver's offensive performance in AFL, I might have expected him in your expansive honorable mention list.

[Seth Stohs]

 

FYI, by that criteria, John Hicks is also still eligible.  Given that he is only a year older than Garver, has already reached MLB with apparently well regarded defense, and has also matched Garver's offensive performance in AFL, I might have expected him in your expansive honorable mention list.

 

Yeah, he could be in there too. He's eligible and he's profiled in the Prospect Handbook. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dominant lefty relievers include Will Smith, Glen Perkins... Matt Thornton 8-10 years ago. Obviously his floor isn't that high, but people definitely believe in that slider and the fastball gets up to 96-97 out of the bullpen. I'd just say any left-handed reliever that you'd be comfortable in the 8th or 9th innings. 

Who are some other left handed relievers that you'd be comfortable with in the 8th or 9th innings, below Smith, Perkins, and vintage Thornton?  Bastardo?

 

Not sure why you use the term "floor", it rather seems like you are describing his reliever upside when you are invoking names like Smith, Perkins, and vintage Thornton.  Those guys are/were 11-12 K/9 all-star setup men and closers.  Unless you honestly think his upside is all-time great like Chapman or Miller, in which case his #9 rank seems WAY too low.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Who are some other left handed relievers that you'd be comfortable with in the 8th or 9th innings, below Smith, Perkins, and vintage Thornton?  Bastardo?

 

Not sure why you use the term "floor", it rather seems like you are describing his reliever upside when you are invoking names like Smith, Perkins, and vintage Thornton.  Those guys are/were 11-12 K/9 all-star setup men and closers.  Unless you honestly think his upside is all-time great like Chapman or Miller, in which case his #9 rank seems WAY too low.

 

OK, yup... poor usage of the term floor. Should have gone with a floor of AA reliever or something. 

[SarasotaBill]

Kepler's stature reminds me of Von Hayes.

[bird]

 

Kepler looks too willowy to be a five tool guy. I wonder how well the minor league power will transfer to MLB. At minimum I'd like to see him add some weight. There again, Buxton is built like a reed but can hit the ball a mile.

 

 

He's about the same height and weight as Adam Brett Walker. Gee, if those two could just put on about 20-30 pounds, we'd have a decent right fielder to replace that overweight plodder Sano. 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2016 by birdwatcher

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OK, yup... poor usage of the term floor. Should have gone with a floor of AA reliever or something. 

Given his draft pedigree and left-handedness, I think it's fair to project a floor of MLB reliever for Jay if the starting conversion doesn't work out.  I don't know how good he'd be or how long he'd stick, but barring injury he'd probably get a long look there.  Similar for Gonsalves and even the RHP Stewart.  That would make more sense within your rankings too, and it seems like the most useful definition of floor for these guys.

 

It was the "dominant" and then "late innings" things that threw me off.  That can't be anyone's floor from A-ball.  Maybe a guy like Meyer, back when he was succeeding in AAA as a starter, you could say if he doesn't stick in MLB as a starter, he could fall back to being a pretty darn good reliever.  (Of course Meyer illustrates how things such as ceiling/floor can change over time too!)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kepler's stature reminds me of Von Hayes.

That's a pretty fair statistical comp, based on Kepler's 2015 season.  Hayes played most of his career around his listed 185 weight, though.  Likely more speed and more willing to use it.  But the power emphasis on doubles/triples, controlling the strike zone, and moving as needed between corner OF, 1B, and even CF, that was very much Kepler in 2015.

 

Although maybe adjusting for era, the weights are pretty similar?  Would also need to adjust Hayes' strikeout rates too, I suppose.

 

EDIT: Fun essay and comments on Von Hayes here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/not/the-pictorial-odyssey-of-von-hayes/

Edited February 18, 2016 by spycake

[drjim]

That would be a nice career for Kepler.