Article: Floor To Ceiling: Berrios, Jay And Stewart

[Cody Christie]

Many of the national prospect lists have been filtering out in the last handful of weeks. With these lists comes plenty of debate. Seth tried to sort through some of the lists to gain some clarity but there will always be people who don't agree on which prospects should be ranked higher than others.

 

In the end, it doesn't matter how high players are ranked if they don't consistently produce at the big league level. It's great that Byron Buxton is considered one of the best prospects but he needs to put all of his tools together to become the player most pundits believe he can be.Pitching prospects can be tough to project. As Baseball Prospectus famously coined, "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect" because of how unpredictable pitching prospects can be. Twins fans have seen this first hand over the last couple years as top pitching prospect Alex Meyer has gone from possible frontline starter to being relegated to the bullpen.

 

Three of the biggest pitching prospects in the Twins system are Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, and Tyler Jay. They have all been first-round picks since 2012 and each one is at a different part of the development process. Berrios is on the verge of his big league debut and Stewart and Jay each have things left to accomplish in the minor leagues.

 

Each of these players has a high ceiling but how high can they go? Or will any of them follow the path followed by Alex Meyer over the last couple of seasons?

 

Jose Berrios

Ceiling: Berrios has put together back-to-back strong seasons in the highest levels of the Twins farms system to make him the second highest ranked prospect in the Twins system. His control is one of his strongest assets and MLB.com recently ranked him as having the best control of any pitching prospect. He limited his walks to just 38 last season in 166.1 innings while leading the minors with 175 strikeouts. He's been very young for each level while consistently playing better than the competition. Combine all of this with his impressive curveball and change-up and you have the recipe for a top of the line starter. Ceiling: Front line starter

 

Floor: There have been questions about his height since the Twins drafted him in 2012. He's slowly been able to convince some of his doubters with his on field performance. There's still no guarantee that he will be able to perform on baseball's biggest stage. Getting major league hitters out on a regular basis is much different than minor league hitters even if they are playing at Triple-A. As a worst case scenario, Berrios could only be good enough to be in the back of the rotation. Floor: Back-end of the rotation starter

 

Kohl Stewart

Ceiling: Stewart provides the Twins with an interesting case. When the team took him with the fourth pick in the 2013 draft, Stewart was a multi-sport high school athlete. His entire focus hadn't been on pitching until he joined the Twins organization. Now with two full seasons under his belt, Stewart is learning his craft as a pitcher. He's been very good at coaxing groundballs throughout his career and this is a very useful skill at the big league level. His body type and skill set could add up to be a workhorse in the rotation while consistently pitching 200 innings or more. Ceiling: Frontline starter

 

Floor: The strikeouts haven't been there for Stewart as he has moved through the Twins system. He's been at least two and a half years younger than the competition at each level but he has a a skill set that would be nice to see in a starting pitcher. There were some brief injury concerns in 2014 but most of those were behind him in 2015. He also needs to get more use out of his change-up as he continues to get closer to the big league level. If needed, the other two pitchers on this list could end up as very good bullpen options but Stewart might not fit that mold because of his lack of strikeouts. Floor: Long reliever

 

Tyler Jay

Ceiling: Jay was a relief pitcher for most of his college career but the Twins liked his stuff enough to use the number six overall pick on him. Minnesota will attempt to transition the left-handed hurler from shutdown bullpen arm to effective starting pitcher. With his fastball and slider combination, the Twins could probably use him in the bullpen this season. That isn't going to happen as the club will monitor his innings closely and begin his starting pitching duties in the Florida State League. If Jay fails in the transition to starting pitcher, he will make a very good bullpen arm. Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter or shutdown left-handed relief pitcher

 

Floor: It's hard to know how Jay will adjust to his new role as starter. The Twins obviously think he can make the switch otherwise they wouldn't have drafted him as high as they did. Unlike Berrios and Stewart, Jay has a proven track record at the collegiate level which means the Twins know more of what kind of asset they have in him. The starting experiment might end up being a total bust but with his top two pitches, he will find success in a bullpen role. Floor: Long reliever

 

Which pitcher has the brighter future? Which pitcher will be able to reach their ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[drjim]

Way too high on all the floors, especially Stewart and Jay.

[by jiminy]

The thing that's different about Meyer is his prospect star hinged upon him becoming something other than he was. His problem today is command and walks. His problem when they got him was command and walks. His stuff was so good, people couldn't help thinking, imagine how good he could be if he could command his pitches! But he couldn't. And he still can't.

 

So what's the lesson of that? Not that people can't improve. They do. They learn new pitches, like Johan Santana. But do they ever really learn control? They must, since people keep hoping, even expecting them to. But do they, really? No one is coming to mind.

 

Ryan, I guess, was a late bloomer. But he had literally the best fastball in the game. He could afford a few walks. It took him years to get his ERA down, though. I feel like I've seen a million cases of people with bad control not panning out. I don't feel like I've seen magical late career improvements very often, if at all. Not in control, anyway. It's like in the NFL, when people draft boneheaded quarterbacks with strong arms, thinking, imagine how good he'd be if he only knew where to throw it. That doesn't work very often either. 

 

My point is not to be pessimistic. On the contrary. It's to say that Meyer's problems don't necessarily present a warning about those other guys, except in the most general sense. None of them are being asked to do something they can't do, or haven't done already. Just to get stronger and be able to do it longer and for more innings. And that, thank goodness, happens all the time.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Way too high on all the floors, especially Stewart and Jay.

 

I was going to say the opposite on Jay. I think his floor is dominant, late-inning left-handed reliever. His ceiling is #2 starter...

 

Stewart's floor is MLB reliever. Ceiling is frontline starter... 

 

Of course, without further improvement, High-A ball could be their floor, but I think that might be a little negative. 

[clutterheart]

TNSTAAPP refers more to the fact pitchers get injured and predicting how they come back from injury seems to be tougher than hitters.

 

So if you reference TNSTAAPP the floor for each of these guys becomes:

Injured never regains form.

[beckmt]

Stewart's floor to me is bust, AAAA starting pitcher, and possibly in 2-3 years a return to football.  Berrios I agree with but think floor is more like mid-rotation starter a 3-4 type.  Jay's floor will probably be a shutdown 8th inning reliever and high end would be like a #2 starter.  Given what the Twins have in the pipeline, it is too early to peg Jay as a reliever.  Starters are more valuable.

[shs_59]

1. ) Berrios   (#2-#3 starter , or 7th inning reliever , slot reliever)

 

2. ) Jay      (#3 - #4 starter , or 8th inning , 7th inning reliever)

 

3. ) Stewart (#3-5 starter , or quad A guy or middle / long reliever)

 

Stephen Gonsalves i'd have somewhere between Jay and Stewart

And Poor Alex Meyer, he probably won't be a Twin for long, hopefully he pans out as a shut down reliever, even if he's going to have the high walk rate.

[USAFChief]

The floor for any minor leaguer is "minor leaguer."

[DocBauer]

Berrios will be a front of the rotation starter. And that's not just hope. From reports and results, I think he's got the stuff. And his work ethic is outstanding. He has a real bulldog mentality. And he has shown the instincts and ability to recognize when changes need to be made and he's made them. I just think he really knows how to pitch.

 

I think the entire Jay experiment could work, I just think it's way too early to predict how well.

 

I feel frustrated that Stewart just doesn't show enough yet to warrant everything written and spoken. And I just get this feeling that something isn't right there. But then I remember his age and see at least OK numbers to this point and I relax. I really think he should start the season back at high A again. We need and want high quality players, not just fast risers.

 

I'd start Meyer. One off season shouldn't define him or restrict him. Seems to me a lot of power/SO pitchers have a bit of a BB problem, but they compensate with those SO's as well other areas of dominance such as ground ball and weak contact rates, etc.

[mikelink45]

Berrios is the only one I believe in.  He has demonstrated his skills, met every challenge and equally important he has the attitude to succeed.   He is small framed and could flame on early which leads to my Twins frustration - use him now, it is not about years of team control, but having him perform when he is healthy and strong. 

The other two are not on my radar at all.  Kohl Stewart needs a strong year this year before I become a believer.  At this point his ceiling is - Tommy Milone and his floor is in the minors.  Talent has to meet performance.  I am cannot measure potential.

 

Jay has gotten a lot of press this winter in the blogs but he has not done anything in professional leagues that I can base hope on.  Having Tyler Duffey break out this year he might have been a better third pitcher on this list because he needs to perform this year to prove that last fall was not a fluke.  What is his ceiling?  Will they figure out his curve?  Will his curve destroy his elbow or shoulder?  

[drjim]

 

I was going to say the opposite on Jay. I think his floor is dominant, late-inning left-handed reliever. His ceiling is #2 starter...

 

Stewart's floor is MLB reliever. Ceiling is frontline starter... 

 

Of course, without further improvement, High-A ball could be their floor, but I think that might be a little negative. 

 

I agree that is the highest likelihood outcome for Jay if he doesn't become a starter, but his floor not pitching in the bigs, or maybe being an up and down type guy.

 

Stewart has a much more likely floor of never pitching in the bigs.

[drjim]

I might be picking nits, you are probably talking a standard deviation confidence range or the like, but floor does get thrown around way too optimistically for pitchers.

[KGB]

I hope Jay's ceiling is a 1-2 starter, because if it's lower, you are waisting time trying to convert him to a starter.  Keep him in the bullpen where he has the potential to be a shutdown relief pitcher.

[Dantes929]

 

The thing that's different about Meyer is his prospect star hinged upon him becoming something other than he was. His problem today is command and walks. His problem when they got him was command and walks. His stuff was so good, people couldn't help thinking, imagine how good he could be if he could command his pitches! But he couldn't. And he still can't.

 

So what's the lesson of that? Not that people can't improve. They do. They learn new pitches, like Johan Santana. But do they ever really learn control? They must, since people keep hoping, even expecting them to. But do they, really? No one is coming to mind.

 

Ryan, I guess, was a late bloomer. But he had literally the best fastball in the game. He could afford a few walks. It took him years to get his ERA down, though. I feel like I've seen a million cases of people with bad control not panning out. I don't feel like I've seen magical late career improvements very often, if at all. Not in control, anyway. It's like in the NFL, when people draft boneheaded quarterbacks with strong arms, thinking, imagine how good he'd be if he only knew where to throw it. That doesn't work very often either. 

 

I spent 10 seconds thinking about it and came up with Randy Johnson, Sandy Kooufax, Phil Hughes and Trevor May so I am guessing there are a lot more.   I am not predicting anything for Meyer but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that command can be gained.   May and Hughes went from very poor command to fantastic command.      Meyer was on the cusp and then took a couple steps backward but I would not be surprised if he figured it out.   Its part mechanical and part mental and can go the other way also.  Guys that could throw it where they wanted and then can't.   Wimmer and Knoblach come to mind.

[nicksaviking]

At this point, barring injury Berrios has gotten close enough that he will get a shot at the MLB regardless of what he does in the minors. He could be terrible at Rochester, but the team will still want to see him before cutting bait as his resume to this point has been so outstanding.

 

The same isn't a guarantee with Stewart of Jay. It's highly unlikely that they don't get at least a taste of the MLB, but as mentioned, their floor is still minor league flameout.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I might be picking nits, you are probably talking a standard deviation confidence range or the like, but floor does get thrown around way too optimistically for pitchers.

No, I had the same thought.  (Of course, I am known for picking nits. )

 

Even putting aside injury risk, it's very hard to put a MLB floor on pitchers in A-ball who still have massive adjustments to make like Stewart and Jay.  I think you pretty much have to be an elite prospect/performer in A-ball to get any kind MLB floor.

 

Although, to be fair, "long reliever" floor from the article isn't that high, with as fleeting as long reliever careers can be, it could be interpreted as just a cup of coffee, which is probably a fair floor given their draft pedigree.  Seth's "dominant reliever" floor  comment is way too high, though -- Jay has 18 pro innings at A-ball and wasn't especially dominant in them yet either.  He's definitely a good prospect, but it is just WAY too early to give him that kind of a floor.

Edited February 16, 2016 by spycake

[Don Walcott]

 

I spent 10 seconds thinking about it and came up with Randy Johnson, Sandy Kooufax, Phil Hughes and Trevor May so I am guessing there are a lot more.   I am not predicting anything for Meyer but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that command can be gained.   May and Hughes went from very poor command to fantastic command.      Meyer was on the cusp and then took a couple steps backward but I would not be surprised if he figured it out.   Its part mechanical and part mental and can go the other way also.  Guys that could throw it where they wanted and then can't.   Wimmer and Knoblach come to mind.

Johnson immediately came to my mind, primarily because of height and he was a late bloomer with his control.  You can't teach the size and power.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The floor for any minor leaguer is "minor leaguer."

 

Correct.  Twinsdaily needs an article explaining what a "floor" is, this mistake is made a lot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The floor for any minor leaguer is "minor leaguer."

Barring injury (part of an useful definition of floor), elite prospects will almost always at least reach MLB.  And the closer to MLB they are, like Berrios, the more likely they are to get extended MLB reps in the very near future.

 

Jay and Stewart, though, I agree.  They're not particularly close to elite or close to MLB right now, although the potential/pedigree is there.

[Vanimal46]

I'm just piling on here but yes, the floors for both Jay and Stewart are way too high. Berrios is close enough to getting his shot in the MLB that his floor/ceiling makes sense. 

I'm sure if this article was written 3-4 years ago Meyer's floor was back of the rotation starter, and ceiling top of the rotation starter.... Now we're hoping he can be a 6th/7th inning bullpen guy. A lot of things can happen between A ball and AAA to get these players off track. 

[bluechipper]

1. ) Berrios   (#2-#3 starter , or 7th inning reliever , slot reliever)

 

2. ) Jay      (#3 - #4 starter , or 8th inning , 7th inning reliever)

 

3. ) Stewart (#3-5 starter , or quad A guy or middle / long reliever)

 

Stephen Gonsalves i'd have somewhere between Jay and Stewart

And Poor Alex Meyer, he probably won't be a Twin for long, hopefully he pans out as a shut down reliever, even if he's going to have the high walk rate.

A consensus top 25ish prospect who has dominated the upper minors with great stuff and great control despite being quite young for the leagues only gets a 2/3 ceiling from you? That's a reasonable conservative projection, but I think his reasonable ceiling projection is an ace.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Amused that once again Berrios' height comes up.

 

He is the same height as Johan Santana.

 

I'd take that.

 

[Dantes929]

 

Barring injury (part of an useful definition of floor), elite prospects will almost always at least reach MLB.  And the closer to MLB they are, like Berrios, the more likely they are to get extended MLB reps in the very near future.

 

Jay and Stewart, though, I agree.  They're not particularly close to elite or close to MLB right now, although the potential/pedigree is there.

Yes.   If you include injury then the floor of anyone, minor leaguer or major league all star, is never play another inning in the majors.  Ask Kirby Puckett.   

[Thrylos]

 

I'm sure if this article was written 3-4 years ago Meyer's floor was back of the rotation starter, and ceiling top of the rotation starter.... Now we're hoping he can be a 6th/7th inning bullpen guy. A lot of things can happen between A ball and AAA to get these players off track. 

 

Speak for yourself.  His floor and ceiling are still what it was.  He is not 35.  He already has been a mop up bullpen guy

Edited February 16, 2016 by Thrylos

[Vanimal46]

 

Speak for yourself.  His floor and ceiling are still what it was.  He is not 35.  He already has been a mop up bullpen guy

Unless things change, Meyer's coming into ST looking to earn a spot in the MLB bullpen. His ceiling and floor have certainly changed since 3-4 years ago if that's going to be his new role. 

[alhweiner]

 

Way too high on all the floors, especially Stewart and Jay.

Absolutely!

The floor would be bagging groceries at the Supermarket.

[sftwinsfan]

I think it's too early to send Meyer to the bullpen.  The guy had a bad year, it happens, it was a disaster.  But he's still relatively young and is healthy.  Start him in AAA as a starter and if he starts blowing hitters away and gets back some confidence go from there.  Randy Johnson averaged over 6 BB/9 from age 27-28.  I'd keep giving Meyer opportunities until you can no longer control his rights.

[Dr. Evil]

If I were the coach, and Berrios came to camp looking sharp and coming off a great season, I would have a very hard time looking him in the eye and telling him to go to the minors.

 

I want all my guys to work hard in the offseason(check), put up really good results in the minors(check), be hard workers(check) and be a good teammate(check).

 

If you want players to have the team's best interest in mind you need to show the player that the team also has his best interest in mind. Also, if you have these expectations of your players, it probably bodes well for morale to reward a player when he achieves what you are asking of him.

 

I think he could help the team win a few more games right at the beginning of the season as well. But, we'll see what happens.

 

I'm not criticizing the Twins or anything. Just kicking out some of my thoughts on the matter.

[drjim]

 

If I were the coach, and Berrios came to camp looking sharp and coming off a great season, I would have a very hard time looking him in the eye and telling him to go to the minors.

 

I want all my guys to work hard in the offseason(check), put up really good results in the minors(check), be hard workers(check) and be a good teammate(check).

 

If you want players to have the team's best interest in mind you need to show the player that the team also has his best interest in mind. Also, if you have these expectations of your players, it probably bodes well for morale to reward a player when he achieves what you are asking of him.

 

I think he could help the team win a few more games right at the beginning of the season as well. But, we'll see what happens.

 

I'm not criticizing the Twins or anything. Just kicking out some of my thoughts on the matter.

 

I think this would be less hard if there 5 other guys that were performing fine (if not better), which I anticipate there will be.

[Shaitan]

"shutdown left-handed relief pitcher"

 

I'm confused. Is his ceiling a LOOGY or a closer? What does this mean? A ceiling of LOOGY is, well, depressing.