Article: Position Battle: 4th & 5th Starters

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed with the post up a few spots.....you aren't likely to trade anyone in May.....

[DJL44]

I think Nolasco is on a very short leash and likely headed to the bullpen as the long reliever

[laloesch]

The real travesty here is that Trevor May won't be starting for the Twins in 2016 if all the reports play out.  That is sad. 

 

Duffey throws a two seam and four seam fastball, a killer curve and changeup.  He rarely uses the changeup (less than 2%).  Some people also say he throws a cutter but I couldn't find evidence oft that.  

[nicksaviking]

 

The real travesty here is that Trevor May won't be starting for the Twins in 2016 if all the reports play out.  That is sad. 

 

Duffey throws a two seam and four seam fastball, a killer curve and changeup.  He rarely uses the changeup (less than 2%).  Some people also say he throws a cutter but I couldn't find evidence oft that.  

 

I agree, I'd like May and Duffey both in the rotation, but May has four pitches and he appears to be locked into the bullpen simply because he was effective there last year and the Twins have self-made bullpen issues currently. Most starters with good velocity and four pitches would make a good bullpen pitcher, but other teams don't push them to the pen because obviously they are more valuable in the rotation pitching two, three, maybe four times as many innings.

 

Slightly different topic, if Hughes' velocity is still at 90 MPH, he should not be a lock for the rotation. He's been in the pen before and perhaps his velocity returns or increases with the short outings. A 90 MPH FB and a way below average curveball make for a bad starter, just as they did last year. He just doesn't have the breaking pitches to get away with a low velocity FB.

[BK432]

 

Unfortunately, Nolasco will be a starter.  The Twins will want to have him prove his value as a starter.  Right now he has no value in a trade.  They will give him a good opportunity to start for at least a month, maybe more.  $12m is a lot of money ($24m for the balance of his contract) for the Twins to discard.

 

The Twins will work toward the starting pitching that will be best in the second half of the season.  It should include Berrios and Duffey (if he is effective) and will mean some demotions and trades to clear the deck. 

 

I disagree with this - management has already hinted at a move to the bullpen. I think there's little chance Nolasco is in the rotation to start the season.

[alarp33]

If Phil Hughes wasn't given that nonsensical extension 1 year into a 3 year deal, wouldn't the logical decision be to move him to the bullpen, and let May start?  Hughes has been a good reliever in the past, and has far less upside in the rotation

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

 

Obviously starting with some depth is nice, I like this mix more than the past few years, but it's not all lollipops and sunshine.

Is the glass half full or is the glass half empty??    I'm going with the half full.

 

Every team would like to have a couple #1 starters but they're pretty tough to find, how many teams in MLB can say they even have one??  By having competitive starters that keep you in the game every night you move a long ways down the road to fighting for a championship.

[brvama]

I find it encouraging that the Twins have talent knocking on the door, versus recent years where improvement went from poor to not as poor. Berrios and Duffy will be pitching in the majors this year and that is a significant improvement of what has been available in past years. Plus more coming. Just because of that talent level I have to believe that will force the issue of replacing SP of meh performance. However, for Berrios to come up he will need to be put on the 40 man roster and someone will have to be DFAd. (That shouldn't be much of a problem tho). But there is also no big hurry, IMO, May would be soon enough for me. There is still some sorting out to be done this year on the full team to set up a potential excellent roster. We may very well look back and see how these things will sort out on their own. And I can envision bigger battles coming in subsequent years. There will be plenty to to talk about too.

[BK432]

 

If Berrios blows people away in ST, he should get a spot in the rotation. 

 

I understand all of the arguments about money and an extra year of control, but at some point this is a potentially competitive team, and fans should be pulling for the Twins to put the best team on the field that they have available to them.  If this were another rebuilding year, I'd understand saving Berrios for the future.  But I think this team has potential to contend, and it would be a shame if monetary considerations prevented them from giving it their best shot this season.

 

I've been frustrated this off-season that the Twins did not do more to improve this team, despite the opportunities to do so.  I'll be even more frustrated if the Twins construct their lineup to maximize profits at the expense of making the playoffs.

 

That said, if Nolasco blows people away in ST, he also should get the spot.  Competition for spots is good for the team, but only if we reward performance.

 

I love the sentiment in this post, but in reality, give 3 starts to a lesser pitcher in return for an extra year of control? That's a trade I'd make every time. 

[Kwak]

 

If Phil Hughes wasn't given that nonsensical extension 1 year into a 3 year deal, wouldn't the logical decision be to move him to the bullpen, and let May start?  Hughes has been a good reliever in the past, and has far less upside in the rotation

NO!  Omit the extension and Hughes has several years of success as a starter including the especially good season with the Twins.  May has one month of stink in 2014 and 3 months of mediocrity in 2015 as a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I love the sentiment in this post, but in reality, give 3 starts to a lesser pitcher in return for an extra year of control? That's a trade I'd make every time. 

 

How often do teams pull the plug on a veteran after 3 starts?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I love the sentiment in this post, but in reality, give 3 starts to a lesser pitcher in return for an extra year of control? That's a trade I'd make every time. 

MLB teams rarely see it that way, though.  Not a lot of pitchers held back for obvious service time reasons.  I can't think of any held back for an extra year of control, Kris Bryant style.  Gerrit Cole was called up right after the Super-2 date, which didn't get an extra year of control but guaranteed only 3 arb seasons rather than 4, but even that seems pretty rare for pitchers.  The penny-pinching Rays, who famously held back Wil Myers past the Super 2 date, have developed a lot of pitching prospects lately and been pretty aggressive with promoting all of them.

 

Makes sense, when you think about it.  Pitchers have so much more perceived variability that the present-day value of "guaranteeing" a 7th season is notably lower.  One injury and the whole thing is moot, look at Francisco Liriano (another aggressive promotion back in the day).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

NO!  Omit the extension and Hughes has several years of success as a starter including the especially good season with the Twins.  May has one month of stink in 2014 and 3 months of mediocrity in 2015 as a starter.

Phil Hughes, seasons as a starter, ERA- / FIP-

2010: 98 / 98

2011: 138 / 109

2012: 101 / 107

2013: 128 / 110

2014: 91 / 70

2015: 109 / 116

 

Trevor May, 3 months starting in his rookie season, ERA- / FIP-

2015: 108 / 80

 

I'd be fine with using their current "stuff" to decide which one starts in 2016.

Edited February 10, 2016 by spycake

[Loosey]

 

When you are as close as the Twins are, projected near .500 in a weak division, you can't afford to defer a season.

 

I wouldn't call the AL Central a weak division anymore.  It only has the reigning World Series champion and back to back AL Champion Royals.  Plus the weak teams in the division reloaded this year.  You could see the last place team be very very close to .500.

[nicksaviking]

 

NO!  Omit the extension and Hughes has several years of success as a starter including the especially good season with the Twins. 

 

That was when Hughes was throwing 92-94. Last year he was throwing 89-91.

 

If his velocity is back in 2016 I'm good giving him a lot longer leash. If it's not back, and we should know fairly quickly, his leash should be very, very short.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wouldn't call the AL Central a weak division anymore.  It only has the reigning World Series champion and back to back AL Champion Royals.  Plus the weak teams in the division reloaded this year.  You could see the last place team be very very close to .500.

Sorry, I didn't really mean "weak".  More like even, balanced, wide open, etc.  Over at Fangraphs, our projected division winner has the fewest projected wins (84) of any in baseball.  Same for our projected 2nd place team.  Lowest spread between first and last, or second and last, of any division.

[spinowner]

 

Winning now is the goal.

Here's where I (and many others) disagree with you (and many others).

The goal (IMHO) should be to build a franchise that contends consistently over a long stretch of time. A team is more likely (IMHO) to win a World Championship by qualifying for the postseason several years in a row than by going all-in for one year.

[nicksaviking]

 

Here's where I (and many others) disagree with you (and many others).

The goal (IMHO) should be to build a franchise that contends consistently over a long stretch of time. A team is more likely (IMHO) to win a World Championship by qualifying for the postseason several years in a row than by going all-in for one year.

 

I don't need to see them get to the playoffs several years in a row to go all in, but I want to see the rotation and the bullpen infused with youth and the young batters who need to be the keystones firmly entrenched. It still looks like 2016 is still going to be heavily influenced by the veterans who have already peaked. When the team finally tosses away the veteran crutches, that's when I want to see them go all in.

[USAFChief]

 

Here's where I (and many others) disagree with you (and many others).

The goal (IMHO) should be to build a franchise that contends consistently over a long stretch of time. A team is more likely (IMHO) to win a World Championship by qualifying for the postseason several years in a row than by going all-in for one year.

But this year isn't one of the "several years in a row?"

 

 

Another word for putting off winning is "losing."

 

The goal should always be to win.  Always.

 

For one thing, I don't like watching a losing team, for obvious reasons.  

 

For another, losing now does nothing to guarantee you'll win in the future. Nothing. All it accomplishes is loosing now.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

NO!  Omit the extension and Hughes has several years of success as a starter including the especially good season with the Twins.  May has one month of stink in 2014 and 3 months of mediocrity in 2015 as a starter.

 

Several years of success as a starter?  Can you tell me which years those are?  

 

ERA+ By Year; 

 

2007 - 102

2008 - 67

2009 - 152 (reliever)

2010 - 103

2011 - 74

2012 - 101

2013 - 77

2014 - 111

2015 - 94

 

FIP has not been below 4.50 in 4 of the past 5 years

 

2014 is pretty clearly the outlier

[alarp33]

 

Phil Hughes, seasons as a starter, ERA- / FIP-

2010: 98 / 98

2011: 138 / 109

2012: 101 / 107

2013: 128 / 110

2014: 91 / 70

2015: 109 / 116

 

Trevor May, 3 months starting in his rookie season, ERA- / FIP-

2015: 108 / 80

 

I'd be fine with using their current "stuff" to decide which one starts in 2016.

 

Ha, I posted nearly the same thing before seeing this.  Not sure when the "many successful seasons" from Hughes were

[BK432]

 

MLB teams rarely see it that way, though.  Not a lot of pitchers held back for obvious service time reasons.  I can't think of any held back for an extra year of control, Kris Bryant style.  Gerrit Cole was called up right after the Super-2 date, which didn't get an extra year of control but guaranteed only 3 arb seasons rather than 4, but even that seems pretty rare for pitchers.  The penny-pinching Rays, who famously held back Wil Myers past the Super 2 date, have developed a lot of pitching prospects lately and been pretty aggressive with promoting all of them.

 

Makes sense, when you think about it.  Pitchers have so much more perceived variability that the present-day value of "guaranteeing" a 7th season is notably lower.  One injury and the whole thing is moot, look at Francisco Liriano (another aggressive promotion back in the day).

 

OK - I hear you - and don't necessarily disagree, but if he's truly promoted at the end of April into a fulltime rotation role, I'm not sure it's a bad thing.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

I would be happy to art the season with two of Milone, Duffey and May.

[jimmer]

 

I would be happy to art the season with two of Milone, Duffey and May.

The idea that May is even in the competition for a spot in the rotation is just PR talk.  They moved him to the bullpen last year in favor of some inferior SPs.  They have done nothing to improve the bullpen.  The rotation he got bumped out of is mostly the same (minus Pelfrey, that's it). He's now a bullpen guy. That's it.

Edited February 11, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

My starting five would be Ervin, May, Berrios, Gibson, and Hughes. I think those are the best five starters and it would be a really, refreshing message to the team. I don't give a rip what your contract situation is, we are fielding the best team a la the Giants and Tim Lincecum, the 20m reliever.

 

The Twins appear to have moved on from May starting, so then the 5th would be Duffy

 

I have zero hope Berrios or May will be in the opening day rotation

[spinowner]

 

The goal should always be to win.  Always.

 

How'd that work out for the Blue Jays last year? How'd that work out for Oakland in 2014? Look at KC. They didn't make big sacrifices. They built their team for longer term success primarily with young players. Yes, it's better to win than to lose but if you put all your eggs in one season's basket you'd better wind up with a dominating team. Otherwise there's a high risk of ending up rebuilding for years when you should have been contending.

Oh, and by the way, as we all know, this is and ever shall be an agree-to-disagree issue. (And we all love to disagree!)

[TheLeviathan]

 

But this year isn't one of the "several years in a row?"

 

 

Another word for putting off winning is "losing."

 

The goal should always be to win.  Always.

 

For one thing, I don't like watching a losing team, for obvious reasons.  

 

For another, losing now does nothing to guarantee you'll win in the future. Nothing. All it accomplishes is loosing now.

 

This sounds good as a bumper sticker, but some elements of reality disagree.

 

Sometimes, in the maturation from losing to winning, you accept a slightly lesser return immediately for a higher return in the near future.  Most young players go through a rough patch early and need to adjust to the advanced talent of the big league level.  The only way to make that adjustment is to give them the opportunity.

 

The consequence of that is sometimes a lesser performance than if you went with some vanilla, no upside player that at least gives you a higher floor than the learning young player.  But it's part of the process and has to be accepted if you want to really start winning.  What you're advising is putting lipstick on a pig so you can say you are "winning" more than if you were playing the kids, whereas I'd rather swing for the fences and let the talent adjust for bigger and better things than a pretty pig.  In other words, I want to start to really win and sometimes that requires a small step backward first.

Edited February 11, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[tobi0040]

EDIT above. My memory was off. Lincecum didn't see much time in the pen

[USAFChief]

I have a hard time holding KC up as a model for "long term success." They went a couple decades without making the postseason, all the while building for the long term success you seek.

 

And it was only after they traded their best minor league asset did they actually achieve said success.

[DocBauer]

I hope this isn't too off topic, but while I have accepted May in the bullpen for now, and think he'll do great there, he absolutely needs to be in the rotation umtil or unless he proves he better and offers greater value as a reliever than as a starter.

 

Probably not going to happen this year.

 

What about next season? Barring injury, looking ahead to 2017, Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey and possibly Milone. (I'm already counting Nolasco of as gone through whatever circumstance), are all in play. So someone has to go somewhere. So I guess my question is, does that happen? The Twins have a large number of strong RHRP arms about ready to make their presence kmown/felt. So does May go back to the rotation in 2017? Do you see him getting a real chance?