Article: Position Battle: Catcher

[Nick Nelson]

Now that TwinsFest and Winter Meltdown are in the rearview mirror and we've flipped the calendar to February, the countdown to spring training is under way.

 

We're a little more than two weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting and soon after that a few compelling battles for starting jobs will get underway.Among the catchers who will be checking into camp on February 21st will be Kurt Suzuki and newly acquired John Ryan Murphy. Barring injuries in March, these will be the two backstops present on the big-league roster when the club heads north.

 

There's little doubt which player will be the nominal starter at the outset of the season – that billing will belong to the veteran Suzuki – but we don't really have much of an idea as to how this timeshare will play out. That will be determined, to some extent, by how things progress in April and May, but the way these two catchers perform in Ft. Myers next month could help dictate the balance of this arrangement early on.

 

Let's take a look at the relative merits of each heading into camp.

 

Why Kurt Suzuki Will Win The Job

 

Over the last two seasons, Suzuki has started 249 of Minnesota's 324 games behind the plate. While his offensive output has fluctuated, he has proven durable and reliable as a catcher, and he is considered to have a good rapport with the pitching staff. That staff remains almost totally incumbent heading into the 2016 campaign.

 

In his interview with Parker Hageman for the Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan stated that he expects Suzuki to settle in somewhere between his offensive numbers from 2014 and 2015. That's a reasonable stance; Suzuki's OPS in his first year with the Twins (.727) was nearly as far above his career mark of .681 as his second-year OPS (.610) was below. If the 32-year-old could rebound to the mid-point of his two years with the team and put up a .670 OPS, it would be right in line with what the average American League catcher produced last year (.678) and I think the Twins are willing to live with an average-hitting backstop at the bottom of the lineup.

 

While pitch framing metrics and caught stealing percentages don't view Suzuki's defense all that kindly, he has mostly been able to avoid blatant gaffes and blunders, aside from the occasional passed ball. The coaching staff certainly appreciates many things that he brings to the table – not the least of them being his toughness. There's something to be said about a guy who takes the punishment he does, and reliably gets back out there day after day. It sets an example for players up and down the roster, and especially the young catcher who is being groomed behind him.

 

Lastly, Suzuki is making $6 million this year (about 12 times as much as Murphy), and any team is going to try and squeeze value out of all that committed money if possible.

 

Why John Ryan Murphy Will Win The Job

 

Offensively, Murphy figures to be an immediate upgrade over Suzuki. He's eight years younger and has simply demonstrated more skill with the stick in recent years, excepting the veteran's outlier 2014 season.

 

If the Twins are trying to garner more production from the catcher position – and that should certainly be a key consideration – making Murphy the primary starter is a step in that direction. There's no real reason to believe he'll be much above average this year, or even necessarily much above Suzuki, but he offers more upside and getting him regular at-bats is a way to help move him toward reaching that upside.

 

Defense will be the crucial factor for Murphy. The reports from New York have been solid, and he is viewed as a guy who has been rapidly improving over the past few years.

 

Still, the Twins have always placed a premium value on catchers who are able to build a comfort level with the staff. That tends to be a shortcoming for younger backstops, and especially one like Murphy who is brand new to the organization. If Murphy's work behind the plate earns high marks from his pitchers, it will help his case for increased playing time immensely.

 

One final item to consider here is that Suzuki's $6 million vesting option for 2017 becomes guaranteed if he reaches 485 plate appearances this year, but I don't think that will come into play. He came up just short of that figure in 2015 despite no trips to the DL and no real competition for reps.

 

Others In The Mix: John Hicks, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver

 

Beyond Suzuki and Murphy, there is almost no major-league catching experience in the entire organization, which makes Ryan's limited attention to the position over the offseason a bit frustrating.

 

Hicks, claimed off waivers from Seattle in early December, leads the way with 34 MLB plate appearances (all in 2015) so he stands third in line behind the two top names. An injury to Suzuki or Murphy would likely lead to Hicks taking over as backup. That's unnerving since the 26-year-old put up a brutal .063/.091/.094 slash line in his first cup of tea with the Mariner's last year, but he has shown some offensive ability in the minors.

 

Seth Stohs has an in-depth profile on John Hicks here.

Turner and Garver are Minnesota's best hopes for an internally developed solution at catcher. Of the two, Garver has produced more in the minors but Stuart has advanced farther, having spent last year in Double-A. Neither seems close to the majors barring a big breakthrough in 2016.

 

Click here to view the article

[stringer bell]

Good review. I'm hoping Molitor starts with a 60-40 Suzuki split and re-evaluates sometime in May. Murphy has to do his part by showing that he is equal to or better than Suzuki.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm hoping the team decides that getting youth experience is important this year, and it is 60% Murphy from day 1. He's the starter next year and beyond, he should be getting as much work this year as possible (w/o wearing him down), so that next year and beyond he's the man. I predict it is more like the exact opposite though.....

[HitInAPinch]

Suzuki's biggest problem last year was exhaustion. 

[ThejacKmp]

I don't worry as much about not having a good third catcher and certainly don't blame TR. The Twins have never had a good third catcher - most teams don't. Chris Hermann, Drew Butera and Eric Fryer types are the typical third catcher. John Hicks is no better and no worse than that crew. It would be a waste of resources to have a good third catcher lined up (at least until MLB inevitable moves to expand rosters to 28). The Twins are actually in a much better spot at catcher than years past - you can make arguments for two guys to be league average catchers. Usually our backup can't hit his own weight.

[Seth Stohs]

I'd be curious to see a list of the thirty 'third catchers' around baseball and see who they might be. Last year, the Twins' guy was Eric Fryer. 

 

Garver and Turner will likely be at AA. In AAA with Hicks will be Juan Centeno (who has some big league experience - minimal) and Carlos Paulino, who is very good defensively. So while I don't think they went crazy in the offseason, I think they got their catcher of the future in Murphy and improved the defense overall at the position with depth.

 

I'd literally like to see a 50/50 split with the catchers at the start of the season, even for two full months. Suzuki, when fresh, has generally been solid. Murphy needs reps with all of the pitchers and getting more consistent ABs than when he backed up Brian McCann will give a better idea of what he can be. Once we get to June or early July, the ratio can shift to 60-40, either way depending upon where the Twins are at the time.

[alarp33]

 

Suzuki's biggest problem last year was exhaustion. 

 

Suzuki's biggest problem is he's just not very good.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

Suzuki's biggest problem last year was exhaustion. 

Seth touched on this in his comment as well, and there might be something to it. When Suzuki first arrived here, I remember overhearing a conversation in spring training about the belief that Suzuki's offensive decline was tied directly to his heavy workload. He did catch A LOT of games from 2008 through 2011 with Oakland -- the most in baseball, if I'm not mistaken.

 

I think a 50/50 split would make sense in the early going, and might help facilitate a rebound for Suzuki. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Seth touched on this in his comment as well, and there might be something to it. When Suzuki first arrived here, I remember overhearing a conversation in spring training about the belief that Suzuki's offensive decline was tied directly to his heavy workload. He did catch A LOT of games from 2008 through 2011 with Oakland -- the most in baseball, if I'm not mistaken.

 

I think a 50/50 split would make sense in the early going, and might help facilitate a rebound for Suzuki. 

No doubt he caught a lot of games from 2008-2011, but that feels like too convenient of an excuse.  He was a 91 OPS+ hitter from ages 23-27, he's been 79 from 28-31.  Almost all of that has been a drop in power.

 

And even if it was influenced by his heavy workload from 2008-2011, and if offseasons before 2012, 2013, and 2015 didn't help, it doesn't seem likely that it can be reversed by an extra couple days off per week in 2016.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed with the above......so every single year he's been over worked in his career? It isn't that he just isn't that good a hitter? 

[Nick Nelson]

Well, he WAS a good hitter. There's no denying that. He dominated in college, he was a second round pick, he hit well as a prospect and he had a quality bat for his first few years in the majors.

 

The theory goes that cumulative wear took a toll after his first couple seasons and sent him into a multi-year slump. When he came to the Twins in 2014, he was coming off his lightest workload ever, and he rebounded.

 

You don't have to buy this theory (I don't, really) but there is at least some evidence to back it up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, he WAS a good hitter. There's no denying that. He dominated in college, he was a second round pick, he hit well as a prospect and he had a quality bat for his first few years in the majors.

 

The theory goes that cumulative wear took a toll after his first couple seasons and sent him into a multi-year slump. When he came to the Twins in 2014, he was coming off his lightest workload ever, and he rebounded.

 

You don't have to buy this theory (I don't, really) but there is at least some evidence to back it up.

 

A well run team would have realized this, played a bad player 1 more time a week, and gotten better overall production, yet no one did that the last 4 years......why?

[puckstopper1]

I'm impressed with TD readers as there is an article about Twins catchers and no one (yet) has suggested moving Mauer back behind the plate (until now).  Looks like we finally all accepted that moving Mauer back behind the plate was not going to happen.  YIPPIE! 

[Winston Smith]

They should move Mauer back behind the plate.

[USAFChief]

 

They should move Mauer back behind the plate.

I'd rather they find someone that can hit.

 

ba-dum-tssshhhhh

[jimmer]

Since they decided to bet on a guy whose great BABIP helped fuel his .730ish or so OPS in SSS, let's just start his starting catcher era now and let Suzuki start about 45 games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, he WAS a good hitter. There's no denying that. He dominated in college, he was a second round pick, he hit well as a prospect and he had a quality bat for his first few years in the majors.

 

The theory goes that cumulative wear took a toll after his first couple seasons and sent him into a multi-year slump. When he came to the Twins in 2014, he was coming off his lightest workload ever, and he rebounded.

 

You don't have to buy this theory (I don't, really) but there is at least some evidence to back it up.

Suzuki was never that good of a hitter in MLB, he was always below average in Oakland by OPS+. "Good for a catcher" at his peak doesn't exactly bode well for his innate hitting skills as he ages, regardless of workload and usage.

[ThejacKmp]

 

A well run team would have realized this, played a bad player 1 more time a week, and gotten better overall production, yet no one did that the last 4 years......why?

 

This seems overly negative. I don't think you can say this is due to things being well-run or not - it seems like confirmation bias where you're looking to cast blame because it fits your thesis about the Twins front office. They may or may not be bad but the catching situation isn't the proof.

 

Firstly, the concept that rest would help is just a theory, not something based on all of the facts. It also ignores that a catcher's hitting is not the biggest thing they do. Suzuki may not be the best defensive catcher but by all accounts he works well with the pitchers. The Twins have not had good backups the past few years (because most teams don't) and have been trying to develop young pitchers for the future so Suzuki has been the best choice most of the time. His hitting may have suffered but that's the price you pay.

 

The real thing this comes down to is that the Twins were not ready to have Joe Mauer move out from behind the plate in the manner he did. We all knew he would eventually but I imagine the Twins plans didn't involve concussions and a sudden "he can play no more games at catcher ever" situation. They figured they could slowly phase him out from behind the plate over several years and cushion the blow of replacing the irreplaceable.  He could even be the backup for a few years. What happened instead is just bad luck - you can't plan for everything.

 

It was especially poor luck because the Twins had traded Ramos a few years before (in an aside, that trade has not been as bad as it should have been with Ramos not really developing into a stud catcher.  But still bad.) With no good in house option the Twins were screwed. It's just hard to find a good catcher, there aren't that many of them. Unless the Twins were going to sign a Russell Martin (which they weren't and which likely wasn't a good idea anyways) or trade multiple key prospects for a very good catcher (which you probably shouldn't do when you're a rebuilding team), they were stuck trying to draft a catcher for the far future while working off of the scrap heap in the meantime. Suzuki was as good of a gamble as anyone else and it worked well one year and poorly another - pretty much what you'd expect.

 

And the future looks good. I for one am glad the Twins took the approach they did this year. None of the many catchers they've drafted looks ready yet and they knew Suzuki was at the end of his tether. But they didn't swing for the fences by trading multiple key prospects for a Lucroy or someone like that. Instead they hit a single and traded from a position of strength to find someone who has a strong chance to be a league average catcher. You can make good arguments that they should have gone with some other catcher but Murphy is a defensible target. He likely won't be a star but he'll be a capable catcher for the next four or five years, giving the Twins time to develop their young guys.

 

There are many things I think you can criticize the Twins Front Office for but the catching situation doesn't jump out to me as a big one. They got dealt a tough hand by the Mauer injury and they've made reasonable choices since then. The future looks reasonably bright, which is all you're really asking for.

[nicksaviking]

I want Suzuki to get the exact minimum number of at bats it will take for another team to decide he's worth taking off of the Twins hands in July.

 

And no offense to Suzuki, I just want to start the revolution now.

[jimmer]

If we are going to blame his hitting woes on workload and wearing down, why has he hit better in his career in the 2nd half than the 1st half?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the "wearing down from his workload" angle is usually just an excuse that a coach or manager usually offers to cover for a struggling player. If they really believed it, they wouldn't have worked him so hard in meaningless games down the stretch in 2014 after giving him the extension.

 

And of course, if you press them on why didn't they rest him more, they will credit the player for being a "gamer" (and not in a Lew Ford sense ).

[Mike Sixel]

 

This seems overly negative. I don't think you can say this is due to things being well-run or not - it seems like confirmation bias where you're looking to cast blame because it fits your thesis about the Twins front office. They may or may not be bad but the catching situation isn't the proof.

 

Firstly, the concept that rest would help is just a theory, not something based on all of the facts. It also ignores that a catcher's hitting is not the biggest thing they do. Suzuki may not be the best defensive catcher but by all accounts he works well with the pitchers. The Twins have not had good backups the past few years (because most teams don't) and have been trying to develop young pitchers for the future so Suzuki has been the best choice most of the time. His hitting may have suffered but that's the price you pay.

 

The real thing this comes down to is that the Twins were not ready to have Joe Mauer move out from behind the plate in the manner he did. We all knew he would eventually but I imagine the Twins plans didn't involve concussions and a sudden "he can play no more games at catcher ever" situation. They figured they could slowly phase him out from behind the plate over several years and cushion the blow of replacing the irreplaceable.  He could even be the backup for a few years. What happened instead is just bad luck - you can't plan for everything.

 

It was especially poor luck because the Twins had traded Ramos a few years before (in an aside, that trade has not been as bad as it should have been with Ramos not really developing into a stud catcher.  But still bad.) With no good in house option the Twins were screwed. It's just hard to find a good catcher, there aren't that many of them. Unless the Twins were going to sign a Russell Martin (which they weren't and which likely wasn't a good idea anyways) or trade multiple key prospects for a very good catcher (which you probably shouldn't do when you're a rebuilding team), they were stuck trying to draft a catcher for the far future while working off of the scrap heap in the meantime. Suzuki was as good of a gamble as anyone else and it worked well one year and poorly another - pretty much what you'd expect.

 

And the future looks good. I for one am glad the Twins took the approach they did this year. None of the many catchers they've drafted looks ready yet and they knew Suzuki was at the end of his tether. But they didn't swing for the fences by trading multiple key prospects for a Lucroy or someone like that. Instead they hit a single and traded from a position of strength to find someone who has a strong chance to be a league average catcher. You can make good arguments that they should have gone with some other catcher but Murphy is a defensible target. He likely won't be a star but he'll be a capable catcher for the next four or five years, giving the Twins time to develop their young guys.

 

There are many things I think you can criticize the Twins Front Office for but the catching situation doesn't jump out to me as a big one. They got dealt a tough hand by the Mauer injury and they've made reasonable choices since then. The future looks reasonably bright, which is all you're really asking for.

 

I'm responding to the argument he can't hit because he wears down. Was that not obvious?

 

So, if he doesn't hit well because he wears down, then rest is called for, no?

Also, this "trend" goes back to his time with the A's.

 

NONE of this is about the Twins.......it is about questioning the argument that he wears down, and somehow WE are all smart enough to know that, and neither the As or Twins were.

 

Is that clear? 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Suzuki was never that good of a hitter in MLB, he was always below average in Oakland by OPS+. "Good for a catcher" at his peak doesn't exactly bode well for his innate hitting skills as he ages, regardless of workload and usage.

 

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Suzuki was never a good catcher by citing OPS+. That’s OPS+ compares him to all position players rather than to other catchers.  Early in his career, Suzuki was a pretty good hitting catcher.  That has of course faded, which is why the Twins were smart to go get his successor.

 

To show this, here is Suzuki’s rank among catchers for each year of his career.  I kept it to guys who caught over 100 games to weed out the occasional catchers. I imagine that means we missed some guys but they seem like pretty reasonable parameters.

2007: 9th out of 26
2008: 13th out of 24
2009: 8th out of 19
2010: 13th out of 20
2011: 17th out of 20
2012: 21st out of 24
2013: 22nd out of 26
2014: 11th out of 28
2015: 22nd out of 25

 

Those first three seasons he was a solid hitting catcher. After that he became slightly below average and then way below average (with the exception of 2014, a glorious year where the Twins got a bargain!)

 

This isn’t to say that Suzuki is a great catcher or the future of the Twins – just that saying he was never a good MLB hitter is false. He was an above average hitting catcher at the beginning of his career.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm responding to the argument he can't hit because he wears down. Was that not obvious?

 

So, if he doesn't hit well because he wears down, then rest is called for, no?

Also, this "trend" goes back to his time with the A's.

 

NONE of this is about the Twins.......it is about questioning the argument that he wears down, and somehow WE are all smart enough to know that, and neither the As or Twins were.

 

Is that clear? 

 

I read your post as you saying that the Twins were not a well-run team. Looking back I can see that maybe you were not saying and it's just worded in a way that leaves room for interpretation. My apologies if I focused on the well-run part and you meant that sarcastically. I think we end up on the same side of this - that the concept of rest being some magic elixir isn't really proven and that baseball teams do things for larger reasons that may not translate to OPS.

 

Overall, I just find that criticisms of the Twins catching situation are overwrought. We got dealt a bum hand with Mauer's concussions and have played it relatively well all things considered. There hasn't been any panic and the Twins did okay with the Suzuki signings (yeah 2015 was bad but there really wasn't anyone better available so at least they got some continuity for the pitching staff and kept a respected veteran voice in a young clubhouse). There are things to criticize but catching isn't one of them.

 

Sorry if I misinterpreted the tone of your post!

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think the "wearing down from his workload" angle is usually just an excuse that a coach or manager usually offers to cover for a struggling player. If they really believed it, they wouldn't have worked him so hard in meaningless games down the stretch in 2014 after giving him the extension.

And of course, if you press them on why didn't they rest him more, they will credit the player for being a "gamer" (and not in a Lew Ford sense ).

 

Agreed. The one that bothers me the most is that any poor hitting infielder or catcher becomes a defensive wizard. Drew Butera was the best backstop ever and Nick Punto was robbed of so many Gold Gloves.

 

That said, I imagine that there is some truth to workload wearing a catcher down. I just don’t think it trumps “he’s gotten old and was average to begin with.”

 

They did give Pinto 7 starts compared to Suzuki’s 17 in September of 2014.  So they lightened it some. The fact they didn’t do more might say more about their opinion of Pinto than Suzuki’s workload.

 

[d-mac]

 

I'm impressed with TD readers as there is an article about Twins catchers and no one (yet) has suggested moving Mauer back behind the plate (until now).  Looks like we finally all accepted that moving Mauer back behind the plate was not going to happen.  YIPPIE! 

This isn't the Strib comment section.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I read your post as you saying that the Twins were not a well-run team. Looking back I can see that maybe you were not saying and it's just worded in a way that leaves room for interpretation. My apologies if I focused on the well-run part and you meant that sarcastically. I think we end up on the same side of this - that the concept of rest being some magic elixir isn't really proven and that baseball teams do things for larger reasons that may not translate to OPS.

 

Overall, I just find that criticisms of the Twins catching situation are overwrought. We got dealt a bum hand with Mauer's concussions and have played it relatively well all things considered. There hasn't been any panic and the Twins did okay with the Suzuki signings (yeah 2015 was bad but there really wasn't anyone better available so at least they got some continuity for the pitching staff and kept a respected veteran voice in a young clubhouse). There are things to criticize but catching isn't one of them.

 

Sorry if I misinterpreted the tone of your post!

 

No issue at all. Glad we got it cleared up, and I agree, they did not think the Mauer thing would happen, but the lack of any candidates behind him that they believed in is an issue.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Suzuki was never a good catcher by citing OPS+.

Good thing no one said that. Seriously, go back and read my post, I specifically said he was a good hitter for a catcher, although below league average overall in OPS+.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Good thing no one said that. Seriously, go back and read my post, I specifically said he was a good hitter for a catcher, although below league average overall in OPS+.

 

I read your post. You said "Suzuki was never that good of a hitter in MLB, he was always below average in Oakland by OPS+."

 

You used OPS+ to say that he wasn't a very good hitter in MLB. I countered that OPS+ is perhaps a bad stat to use for discussing how good of a hitter a catcher is because it compares him to all positions and not just catchers. Then I offered a better way to decide if he was a good hitter at any point in his career, concluding that for the first three years of his career he was a good hitter.

 

I don't see an issue. You sited OPS+ to talk about his hitting - I countered that OPS+ is not a fair way to measure a catcher's hitting.

Edited February 5, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

Good thing no one said that. Seriously, go back and read my post, I specifically said he was a good hitter for a catcher, although below league average overall in OPS+.

 

But hey, it doesn't really matter. Have a good weekend!