Article: Lottery Numbers: Projecting The 2016 Twins

[dwade]

While they differ in methodology, the major projection systems -- Marcel, OLIVER, PECOTA, Steamer, ZiPS et al. -- all abide by one central rule: Projections are not predictions. This mantra should be a source of comfort to Twins fans, since most experts are willing to predict that the team will be interesting and has at least some chance of making the playoffs they barely missed out on last year.The projections, however, are nowhere near as kind. The offense looks to be about league average, while the pitching staff...well, according to the projections released so far, the less said about the pitching staff, the better.

 

Lest these automated soothsayers take away the hope that sustains baseball fans through the winter, there seems to be ample reason for more skepticism than usual this year regarding their estimation of the Twins’ offense.

 

To get a sense of the challenge facing projectors, here’s what I’d pencil in right now for a typical midseason lineup. The number in parenthesis refers to the player’s career plate appearances in major league baseball.

 

CF Byron Buxton (129 PA)

2B Brian Dozier (2374 PA)

1B Joe Mauer (6244 PA)

RF Miguel Sano (335 PA)

3B Trevor Plouffe (2565 PA)

DH Byung-Ho Park (0 PA)

LF Eddie Rosario (474 PA)

SS Eduardo Escobar (1243 PA)

C John Ryan Murphy (284 PA)

 

Dozier, Plouffe, and Mauer are all relatively easy to project. Since they’ve established the kinds of players they are, it would be more surprising to have one of them either completely fail to even approach their projected line or to completely overshoot it than it would be for all three to end 2016 having performed close to expectations.

 

Escobar doesn’t have quite the longevity the others have, but his last two years (2014: .275/.315/.406 in 465 PA and 2015: .262/.309/.445 in 446 PA) have been so consistent, that he shouldn’t pose much of a problem. Some variation (more OBP, less slugging for example) is certainly possible. His last two months of 2015 were aberrant to be sure, but most projection systems won’t go into that level of granularity, and his year as a whole was right in line with expectations.

 

Thanks to a long, fruitful career in Korea, Park should theoretically be projectable, especially once his past performance is re-evaluated using something like Keith Woolner’s Major League Equivalent tool. However, his season is so fraught with external variables -- things like how he adjusts to major league pitching, how the travel schedule affects him, and how quickly he acclimates to the Twins’ clubhouse culture -- that no formula could predict if he can contribute much this season or if the Twins will need to wait until next year to see Park’s characteristic power in full bloom.

 

That leaves about half the lineup to project. Research done independently at The Hardball Times and Beyond the Box Score show that projection systems tend to struggle with rookies since most -- PECOTA being the most notable outlier -- use some variation of a weighted three-year average in their projections. The remaining five players in that projected lineup (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Murphy) combined for just 1222 career plate appearances, which is about as many as one player should have in two full seasons. Adding another level of complexity, Murphy’s came over the course of three seasons, which makes for three minute samples instead of one small one.

 

Having solid minor league numbers to fall back on can help pull the projections in line, but these Twins don’t do the systems even that bit of kindness. They combined for even fewer plate appearances in Triple-A (612) than they did in the majors. Of those, 453 belong to Murphy, who hasn’t appeared in Triple-A since August of 2014, so it isn’t even as though he has a recent sample to pull from.

 

There’s a temptation to see this as a positive: The team won’t project well, but will end up being quite good. That’s possible. It’s equally possible that the projections will be bullish and the youth movement will be a year away from hitting its stride. ZiPS already has Buxton and Sano as two of the team’s three best players, though with lines of .266/.310/.405 and .249/.337/.491 respectively, that speaks more to bearish numbers for the rest of the team than optimism about them.

 

The Twins’ hitters are going to be better than their pitchers, this seems like the consensus view at this point in the offseason, but there just seems to be too much ambiguity to say whether they’ll be good enough to fully compensate for the pitching staff.

 

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[terrydactyls]

I'sure glad they play baseball games on a field instead of a computer. All these projection models and fancy statistical models don't show heart, hussle, and attitude. I'm just hoping the youth movement progresses rapidly and the kids play their butts off. It should be a good 2016 and possibly a wonderful 2017.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The future's so bright I gotta wear shades. Piss on these projections (though they might be right on the pitching).

[James Richter]

The rather pessimistic projections set a realistic floor for this team: a win total in the upper 70s (or, perhaps more accurately, a run differential of about -30). The season depends on how many innings go to high-upside young arms vs. safe but "meh" vets.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

I'sure glad they play baseball games on a field instead of a computer. All these projection models and fancy statistical models don't show heart, hussle, and attitude. I'm just hoping the youth movement progresses rapidly and the kids play their butts off. It should be a good 2016 and possibly a wonderful 2017.

 

I agree - and I'll add one more variable, an important one that I believe led to the Twins' exceeding projections in 2015: That of managability. Paul Molitor showed he could manage this team, and the players responded. it took time - the Twins lost what six of their first seven games? But wow, what a month of May! 

[ND-Fan]

You talk of projecting but I would also have to say Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, and Escobar I would have hard time projecting their numberas well. In my mind Plouffe is probalbly the easiest of the group I am thinking he will have similar numbers for last two seasons and I think maybe with slight upward tick he's learning to hit right hand pitching. Next will be Mauer but is he going from this past year point or are we going to see return to where he hits like around 300 for the season this will mark second free year post concussion Morneau seemed to make that leap after his concussions. Dozier has shown signs of wearing down so his hitting numbers and fielding number have been hurt in second half of the season previous 2 seasons. I think The Twins will address this some by controlling his playing time and his ability to pace himself for the season. Then we come to Escobar I thought last season he turned the corner as hitter in that he wasn't swinging at every pitch and he was working himself into better counts to hit. I think its where young player finally learns how to hit a major league level. I am thinking he could have vastly improved numbers for the season. The rest of the new players is another area where I believe where no one will know how they will hit. My guess it will be streaky for each of them until either they learn to hit or pitchers dominate them until they learn to hit Major league pitching. My guess is were going to have mid year slump on offense until these kids can adjust to how they are being pitched.

[Broker]

I quit paying attention to those guys years ago. I don't pat attention to film critiques either.

[GSM]

74 wins.  Terry Ryan, w/ his dumpster diving approach, once again, to putting together a bullpen kind of seals it for me and tells me even he doesn't believe this team can seriously contend. 

 

It'll be a "let's see what we've got" kind of year w/ some growing pains w/ the youngsters. 

[alarp33]

 

The rather pessimistic projections set a realistic floor for this team: a win total in the upper 70s (or, perhaps more accurately, a run differential of about -30). The season depends on how many innings go to high-upside young arms vs. safe but "meh" vets.

 

A Win total in the upper 70's is a pessimistic floor??!?  On paper, this team is the 4th or 5th best one in their own division.  That doesn't mean they can't surpass any projections, but a pessimistic floor might be 68-70 wins.  

 

How many innings can possibly go to high-upside young arms, considering in terms of rotation they only have 1 of those who will likely reach the majors this year in Berrios?

[James Richter]

 

How many innings can possibly go to high-upside young arms, considering in terms of rotation they only have 1 of those who will likely reach the majors this year in Berrios?

If they pass on Nolasco and Milone in favor of Duffey and May, that's a couple hundred IP right there.

[alarp33]

 

If they pass on Nolasco and Milone in favor of Duffey and May, that's a couple hundred IP right there.

 

Calling Duffey a high upside young arm is a pretty loose usage of that term.  And while I'd like to see May in the rotation, it sounds like that really is not even a possibility at this point.  

[James Richter]

 

Calling Duffey a high upside young arm is a pretty loose usage of that term.  And while I'd like to see May in the rotation, it sounds like that really is not even a possibility at this point.  

How about if we say "higher upside than the presumed veteran incumbent?" It seems to me that May is only a long-shot for the rotation because there are so many tenured guys on the roster.

 

I also want to point out that, though the projections have the Twins at the bottom of the standings, they're only 6 games behind the leaders. And while I think most of their rate stat projections are plausible, there's a lot to quibble with in Fangraphs' current depth chart. They have Suzuki getting 100 more PA than Murphy, Escobar only making half the starts at SS, Dozier, Plouffe and Buxton all providing negative defensive value. I'm certainly expecting things to go differently in those areas, which is mainly why I see 78 wins as more of a floor.

[alarp33]

 

How about if we say "higher upside than the presumed veteran incumbent?" It seems to me that May is only a long-shot for the rotation because there are so many tenured guys on the roster.

 

I also want to point out that, though the projections have the Twins at the bottom of the standings, they're only 6 games behind the leaders. And while I think most of their rate stat projections are plausible, there's a lot to quibble with in Fangraphs' current depth chart. They have Suzuki getting 100 more PA than Murphy, Escobar only making half the starts at SS, Dozier, Plouffe and Buxton all providing negative defensive value. I'm certainly expecting things to go differently in those areas, which is mainly why I see 78 wins as more of a floor.

 

I think we just have a different definition of "floor".  You certainly could be right about the projections being off, and 78-80 wins may be a good guess going into the year.  

 

The floor is that they don't stay as healthy as last year, Perkins, Doziers 2nd half struggles carry over, instead of being #2 in baseball in "cluster luck" they fall to #29, etc.  There are enough question marks on this team, the division could potentially be the best in baseball, I would say the floor is somewhere around 68-70 wins. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And while I think most of their rate stat projections are plausible, there's a lot to quibble with in Fangraphs' current depth chart. They have Suzuki getting 100 more PA than Murphy, Escobar only making half the starts at SS, Dozier, Plouffe and Buxton all providing negative defensive value. I'm certainly expecting things to go differently in those areas, which is mainly why I see 78 wins as more of a floor.

Fangraphs also has Sano as a league average defensive RF and Byung Ho Park as a top 50 hitter in all of MLB.  And despite Suzuki projected for 100 more PA than Murphy (which I'd say is actually fairly likely), they still have Twins catchers at a cumulative 2.0 WAR, versus the 0.2 WAR from that position last year.

 

It's the nature of projections.  It's not advisable to only discount the pessimistic ones.

[James Richter]

Personally, I wouldn't characterize less than 2.0 WAR as an optimistic projection for Park at all. While they certainly may choose to give Suzuki the lion's share of the playing time this season, I'll be very surprised and disappointed if that turns out to be the case. 

 

As for the floor, another big factor I see holding it up is the quality depth they have in the upper minors. The Twins' top 25 players aren't so outstanding that their production can't be replaced by Berrios, Burdi, Chargois, Polanco, Kepler, etc. They're much better positioned to sustain injuries to "key starters" than the other teams in the division.