Article: Dollars And Sense

[Platoon]

You had four candidates for that.  Jones, Chargois, Burdi, and Meyer.  

 

Jones is gone now. 

 

Chargois and Burdi walked 5.5 and 6.6 per 9 last year and have limited time above A ball.  We have no track record of promoting guys with BB rates like that.

 

Meyer is new to the pen and has had his share of control issues too

We have no track record of promoting anyone, who walks anyone. To expect that from high velocity pitchers is not reasonable. One can argue an "acceptable BB rate for that type of pitcher, but applying our PTC standards to that style arm, will mean a long career in Rochester for anyone who breaks 97!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree with the bullpen approach though. The Twins can't get guys that throw 97 MPH in free agency, they can get them in AA though.

Mark Lowe?

[Steve Lein]

This paragraph is the key for me:

 

"But of course this overlooks the fact that, so many times in the past, those players that the Twins "haven't liked" ended up having successful seasons in which they could have been difference-makers for the club. Meanwhile, many of the players that they liked enough to sign, who invariably ended up being on the second or third tier in terms of monetary commitments, panned out as poor investments."

 

And it doesn't just apply to free agents in the offseason, it applies to other moves they've made as well.

 

1. Kurt Suzuki's extension. He had a career year, and the Twins rewarded him for it. You can argue the total money given here wasn't a huge issue, but that doesn't change the fact it's been a poor investment since.

 

2. Phil Hughes extension. He was brilliant in 2014, though again, pretty much an outlier year for him. He also was still under contract for two more years... So they gave him a raise and more years. I said at the time it was a year too early. Would be nice to have that money available now, while he was trying to earn that value again this year, wouldn't it?

 

Maybe someone else can add a few names to the list as well, but I would really like the Twins to stop this philosophy of rewarding career average players for a career year with them. This is a bigger issue to me than not spending money on a FA reliever they might need, but if they didn't hand out these extensions or wasted the 2.2MIL or whatever dollars on those poor, lower-tier investments, suddenly there is money available that would allow you to actually add a difference maker in the bullpen.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Hey, I'm all in on going young, but they didn't even promote Rogers last year to test him out. NOT ONE young guy was brought up in September. IF that is their strategy, why would you not do that?

[nicksaviking]

 

You had four candidates for that.  Jones, Chargois, Burdi, and Meyer.  

 

Jones is gone now. 

 

Chargois and Burdi walked 5.5 and 6.6 per 9 last year and have limited time above A ball.  We have no track record of promoting guys with BB rates like that.

 

Meyer is new to the pen and has had his share of control issues too

 

Jones is only gone if Milwaukee keeps him on the 25 man all year.

 

If the control sensitive front office isn't concerned about their control, neither am I. I have no problem with some wildness, particularly from relievers. And I'm sure you know that all three of those guys' control improved significantly after dreadful starts to the season.

 

Also, Melotakis can be added to your list. And Reed, Peterson and even Alex Wimmers and Michael Tonkin throw harder than the journeymen, low ceiling, safety nets everyone seems to want around here.

 

It seems that when the team looks to add safe, blase vets to the rotation and lineup like Correia, Pelfrey and Hunter, there is a lot more resistance. Yet we talk about adding these types of guys to the pen and lots of people start drooling.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Mark Lowe?

 

I've said multiple times that I liked Mark Lowe, think he'll be the biggest free agent relief steal and I would have taken him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jones is only gone if Milwaukee keeps him on the 25 man all year.

 

If the control sensitive front office isn't concerned about their control, neither am I. I have no problem with some wildness, particularly from relievers. And I'm sure you know that all three of those guys' control improved significantly after dreadful starts to the season.

 

Also, Melotakis can be added to your list. And Reed, Peterson and even Alex Wimmers and Michael Tonkin throw harder than the journeymen, low ceiling, safety nets everyone seems to want around here.

 

It seems that when the team looks to add safe, blase vets to the rotation and lineup like Correia, Pelfrey and Hunter, there is a lot more resistance. Yet we talk about adding these types of guys to the pen and lots of people start drooling.

Until we see them trust young RPs with lots of walks, why would we think it will happen?

 

We largely agree that they SHOULD do it, but they have not done so in the past.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know it may not be popular, but I'm fine with losing a few extra games in 2016 if it means we actually get to see these guys in 2016 instead of having to wait another year because the bullpen is stocked with guys who aren't good enough to be a part of the solution, but not bad enough to lose their jobs.

 

The team has had a history of being so conservative that that last sentence should be a real concern. Loyalty to veterans and fear of the unknown may be this team's biggest problem. I like thinking that the team may be putting themselves into the position where they cannot fall back into their comfort zone. 30-year-old relievers are definitely part of their comfort zone.

Starve the beast, eh?

 

I get it, but it's just so speculative at this point.  You're waiting for a leopard to change his spots.

 

Signing a FA reliever on the modest scale of Lowe or Bastardo is arguably less of a change of spots (so, more likely), and could obviously have been performed immediately, no waiting required.

 

Heck, we could successfully starve the beast to change his spots, have them prepared to promote the youngsters, just to have too few youngsters healthy and ready to answer the call in 2016-2017.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Hey, I'm all in on going young, but they didn't even promote Rogers last year to test him out. NOT ONE young guy was brought up in September. IF that is their strategy, why would you not do that?

 

I agree and I wish they would have. I like taking away as many safety nets as possible so they are forced to do this relatively soon though.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Starve the beast, eh?

 

Yup. I want the players to be really good or really bad. Really bad guys get replaced, the ones that are just OK, usually don't.

 

The young guys might not pan out, but we need to know. And I'd rather find out now, than have to wait until 2017 when this team will hopefully be ready to contend. If the youngsters spectacularly implode with little hope of improvement, I'll be all aboard the free agent bandwagon this time next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've said multiple times that I liked Mark Lowe, think he'll be the biggest free agent relief steal and I would have taken him.

Glad to hear it.

 

Keep in mind most of us were advocating for Lowe and similar commitments/talents earlier this winter.

 

I don't think anyone's Plan A was Neal Cotts or whatever is left now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yup. I want the players to be really good or really bad. Really bad guys get replaced, the ones that are just OK, usually don't.

 

I'm with you on this, IF they let the young guys fail some before giving up on them (since most RPs fail quite often).

[Cris E]

 

Offseason ways to improve club

 

1) FA signings

2) Trades

 

3) Kids get better and injured guys return.

 

It's what Ryan is counting on, and in some cases it's very real. In the case of the 2016 bullpen TR might be counting on May and Meyer. He could be dreaming of Tonkin finally becoming something. He could have a spot in reserve for the injured guys riding into Spring Training on white stallions to save the day.  He might still be waiting to make a move in April once he sees what he has and who ended up without a job at the end of camp. 

 

But there are enough open spots in the pen that he really should have locked one down with someone new, and I don't think anyone is defending the complete lack of action. The only thing I'll say about bullpen FA is they are incredibly erratic from year to year, they get hurt, you can usually go find a Jepson when you need one in the middle of a season, and he's had some pretty good luck fashioning a pen out of junk over the years. Here's hoping he cuts bait on more than just Duensing and some of the young herd (Pressely and Tonkin and Graham and on and on) step up and grab the innings.

 

But I understand a lot of his other idleness. He kept Plouffe because Sano is still an unknown. He couldn't stay healthy last year as a DH, so TR wants to see him play 150 games before he dumps Trevor and Molitor finds himself playing a SS out of position for four months. He didn't go find an OF because he has a handful to sort through. He did pick up a catcher on the cheap, and while he still has Suzuki around for a year he can find out if Murphy is the guy or he still needs to shop.

 

I have no answer for signing a DH this winter. That was weird. But he did offer Torri another year, so who knows what he's thinking about the outfield. Maybe Sano was slated to go to 3B until Hunter retired.

[mikelink45]

There is confusion in some postings.  This is a good article and the simple issue as I see it would be: if you are going to sign someone, get someone good, quit filling the slots with low paid, low expectation vets - use minor leaguers that at least have an upside.  It is the type of player we sign that causes our regrets. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've said multiple times that I liked Mark Lowe, think he'll be the biggest free agent relief steal and I would have taken him.

Further on this: given that the Twins apparently passed on Lowe (no reports of pursuing him or a similar pitcher, and he signed relatively quickly and reasonably with an AL Central competitor that finished behind us last year), I'm not confident we'll see prudent bullpen moves going forward, even if we "starve the beast."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know it may not be popular, but I'm fine with losing a few extra games in 2016 if it means we actually get to see these guys in 2016 instead of having to wait another year because the bullpen is stocked with guys who aren't good enough to be a part of the solution, but not bad enough to lose their jobs.

 

The team has had a history of being so conservative that that last sentence should be a real concern. Loyalty to veterans and fear of the unknown may be this team's biggest problem. I like thinking that the team may be putting themselves into the position where they cannot fall back into their comfort zone. 30-year-old relievers are definitely part of their comfort zone.

Doesn't "30-year-old relievers... who aren't good enough to be a part of the solution, but not bad enough to lose their jobs" describe Abad perfectly, though?

 

He just turned 30, and his stats absolutely scream this.  Career 105 ERA+ in mostly low leverage work -- even last year, he was at 97 ERA+ despite his troubles.  In terms of ERA+, almost the spitting image of Brian Duensing who was the poster boy for "not good enough, but not bad enough".

 

Technically Abad is on a minor league deal, but likely in name only as the Twins sort out their 40-man roster this spring before adding him.  It's not all that different than bringing back Duensing at a reduced rate, is it?

 

I would think Abad is another strong data point suggesting the bullpen isn't going to get sorted out how you hope in 2016.

[tobi0040]

 

Doesn't "30-year-old relievers... who aren't good enough to be a part of the solution, but not bad enough to lose their jobs" describe Abad perfectly, though?

 

He just turned 30, and his stats absolutely scream this.  Career 105 ERA+ in mostly low leverage work -- even last year, he was at 97 ERA+ despite his troubles.  In terms of ERA+, almost the spitting image of Brian Duensing who was the poster boy for "not good enough, but not bad enough".

 

Technically Abad is on a minor league deal, but likely in name only as the Twins sort out their 40-man roster this spring before adding him.  It's not all that different than bringing back Duensing at a reduced rate, is it?

 

I would think Abad is another strong data point suggesting the bullpen isn't going to get sorted out how you hope in 2016.

 

Yup, same guy really.   In August we wanted a lefty, we traded for Cotts who had the same FIP as Duensing too. That was basically a 1 year, $700K deal.

 

Now we needed a lefty because we cut Duensing, we signed Abad.

 

 

[mazeville]

 

Offseason ways to improve club

 

1) FA signings

2) Trades

 

The Twins chose none of the above.  There were plenty of ways to improve this roster, beyond just straight up FA signings... but it would have taken money, something the Pohlads seem unwilling to spend, and creativity with the roster, something Terry Ryan seems incapable of.  

 

They could have; Cut bait with Nolasco, take on half his salary or more and give him away.  He doesn't want to be here, the roster spot could be better used elsewhere.  My proposal - Offer Doug Fister 1 year, $12/ million w/ incentives.  Berrios will still be next man up

 

They could have; Traded Plouffe - it's been beaten to death, but he makes very little sense with this current roster.  Sano to 3B, Arcia in a platoon to start the year with cheap FA who can hit lefties.  This also would have opened up the possibility of Alex Gordon, Cespedes, etc.  The market seemed to undervalue these guys, would have been worth looking into.  When Kepler is ready in May/June, you can flip Rosario (who I'm personally not sold on yet)

 

Instead, they signed A DH, the one position they already had plenty of options at.  

 

Uh, actually, they chose both options -- they traded from an area of strength (outfield) to shore up an area of weakness (catcher) and they signed Byung Ho Park. I get that a DH wasn't a big area of need. But you can't argue that they didn't do anything this offseason when in fact they made two fairly big deals.

 

I'm not the biggest fan of what the Twins are doing. I'd rather they trade Plouffe and signed a back-end reliever. But they haven't sat on their hands, either.

 

[DaveW]

 

Uh, actually, they chose both options -- they traded from an area of strength (outfield) to shore up an area of weakness (catcher) and they signed Byung Ho Park. I get that a DH wasn't a big area of need. But you can't argue that they didn't do anything this offseason when in fact they made two fairly big deals.

 

I'm not the biggest fan of what the Twins are doing. I'd rather they trade Plouffe and signed a back-end reliever. But they haven't sat on their hands, either.

But by trading Hicks they now go into 2016 with a whole lot of uncertainty in the OF. Is the lineup/team actually improved by having Murphy in it 50% of the time? (While they might have to run out a 4th OF type in CF to start the year?)

 

As of now the opening day OF looks like: Sano-Rosario-Arcia, that sends up some serious red flags in my book. Hopefully Buxton earns his way onto the roster, but after his struggles last year, I'm not ready to just pencil him in just yet. Now, come June/July I am confident that Buxton will be ready, but at that point it may be too late. Ditto with some of the young arms figuring it out and coming up in June/July. Games in April count just as much as games in September.

 

I know we all want to see these young flamethrowers get a shot, but does anyone seriously think that TR, Molly etc will have 2 or 3 "rookies" in the pen on opening day? I would be shocked. More than likely Abad, Duensing, or someone else off the pile will be throwing meaningful innings in April and May, and that is what is so frustrating about the whole thing.

 

 

[Loosey]

 

This paragraph is the key for me:

 

"But of course this overlooks the fact that, so many times in the past, those players that the Twins "haven't liked" ended up having successful seasons in which they could have been difference-makers for the club. Meanwhile, many of the players that they liked enough to sign, who invariably ended up being on the second or third tier in terms of monetary commitments, panned out as poor investments."

 

And it doesn't just apply to free agents in the offseason, it applies to other moves they've made as well.

 

1. Kurt Suzuki's extension. He had a career year, and the Twins rewarded him for it. You can argue the total money given here wasn't a huge issue, but that doesn't change the fact it's been a poor investment since.

 

2. Phil Hughes extension. He was brilliant in 2014, though again, pretty much an outlier year for him. He also was still under contract for two more years... So they gave him a raise and more years. I said at the time it was a year too early. Would be nice to have that money available now, while he was trying to earn that value again this year, wouldn't it?

 

Maybe someone else can add a few names to the list as well, but I would really like the Twins to stop this philosophy of rewarding career average players for a career year with them. This is a bigger issue to me than not spending money on a FA reliever they might need, but if they didn't hand out these extensions or wasted the 2.2MIL or whatever dollars on those poor, lower-tier investments, suddenly there is money available that would allow you to actually add a difference maker in the bullpen.

To me the handing out extensions with more money for career years is the Twins showing desperation and fearing the future.  I think sometimes they look too far ahead at the money they MIGHT have to spend to keep someone if they continue to excel.  Instead they should bank the saved money because they clearly have someone at a discount (Hughes 2014 example).  That is the Twins conservative nature at it's finest, they fear the unknown and would rather just pay up now rather than risk having someone leave or have to get into a bidding war to keep them. 

 

They are the same way with their roster management.  They know what Plouffe is and are willing to pay for him to play 3rd base.  Sano could play 3rd base and be as good or better, but the unknown is what if his defense sucks and now they already traded away their known commodity of solid defensive 3rd base.

 

The Twins for the most part are risk averse, and they are willing to pay and sometimes overpay to continue to avoid risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I have no problem with paying or even over-paying to be risk averse sometimes.  Actually, signing a FA reliever this winter would have been paying to be risk averse -- there's a lot of risk to be mitigated in the current Twins 2016-2017 bullpen picture, especially for a team with legit contention aspirations.

 

The Twins too often sit out the market waiting for a bargain, though, or are too eager to try avoiding the market entirely (Suzuki and Hughes extensions).  The market can still yield valuable players on fair contracts, perhaps better than what you already have.

[Loosey]

 

But by trading Hicks they now go into 2016 with a whole lot of uncertainty in the OF. Is the lineup/team actually improved by having Murphy in it 50% of the time? (While they might have to run out a 4th OF type in CF to start the year?)

 

As of now the opening day OF looks like: Sano-Rosario-Arcia, that sends up some serious red flags in my book. Hopefully Buxton earns his way onto the roster, but after his struggles last year, I'm not ready to just pencil him in just yet. Now, come June/July I am confident that Buxton will be ready, but at that point it may be too late. Ditto with some of the young arms figuring it out and coming up in June/July. Games in April count just as much as games in September.

 

I know we all want to see these young flamethrowers get a shot, but does anyone seriously think that TR, Molly etc will have 2 or 3 "rookies" in the pen on opening day? I would be shocked. More than likely Abad, Duensing, or someone else off the pile will be throwing meaningful innings in April and May, and that is what is so frustrating about the whole thing.

I just wish the team would pick a direction they are going.  They are so bad at informing the fans at their plans when it comes to reasoning with personnel.  I doubt many would be upset if they broke spring training with Burdi, Chargois, May, Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, Meyer, Rodgers with others waiting in AAA.  The team just needs to let the fans who are uninformed know their could be some implosions and bumps in the road, but this is what the team will begin to look like in the future. 

 

There will always be Duensings and Abads waiting on the scrap pile if some of the young guys need to get sent back down to AAA for some seasoning in May, no need to start with junk.

 

I would rather have a rocky pen with young guys than implosions with scrap heapers to start the season.

[Platoon]

Yup. I want the players to be really good or really bad. Really bad guys get replaced, the ones that are just OK, usually don't.

 

The young guys might not pan out, but we need to know. And I'd rather find out now, than have to wait until 2017 when this team will hopefully be ready to contend. If the youngsters spectacularly implode with little hope of improvement, I'll be all aboard the free agent bandwagon this time next year.

While I doubt this will happen, if none, or only a few of the Twins young talent pans out, it will make little difference who they sign for FA's. They spent years losing to accumulate the current list of prospects. They either produce, or its back to the Dark Ages!

[DaveW]

 

I just wish the team would pick a direction they are going.  They are so bad at informing the fans at their plans when it comes to reasoning with personnel.  I doubt many would be upset if they broke spring training with Burdi, Chargois, May, Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, Meyer, Rodgers with others waiting in AAA.  The team just needs to let the fans who are uninformed know their could be some implosions and bumps in the road, but this is what the team will begin to look like in the future. 

 

There will always be Duensings and Abads waiting on the scrap pile if some of the young guys need to get sent back down to AAA for some seasoning in May, no need to start with junk.

 

I would rather have a rocky pen with young guys than implosions with scrap heapers to start the season.

I would rather have that as well 100%.

 

I just can't envision a way where the Twins roll into opening day with 2-3 rookies. I could honestly see them breaking camp with none. Which is why I really don't understand the stance of "you can't afford to sign a good RP for 2-3 years" If they somehow roll into opening day with: Perkins, Jepsen, May (grrrr), Fien, and 3 high upside rookies, then I will give them a whole lot of credit. I just don't see it happening.

 

I still hope they go out and get Clippard personally.

 

[DaveW]

 

 

While I doubt this will happen, if none, or only a few of the Twins young talent pans out, it will make little difference who they sign for FA's. They spent years losing to accumulate the current list of prospects. They either produce, or its back to the Dark Ages!

I dunno about that, it depends on who exactly pans out in that scenario. If Buxton, Sano, Berrios and Rosario for instance all reach their ceiling and everyone else falls on their face, then you most certainly can fill in the gaps. But I get what you are getting at no doubt.

[alarp33]

 

Uh, actually, they chose both options -- they traded from an area of strength (outfield) to shore up an area of weakness (catcher) and they signed Byung Ho Park. I get that a DH wasn't a big area of need. But you can't argue that they didn't do anything this offseason when in fact they made two fairly big deals.

 

I'm not the biggest fan of what the Twins are doing. I'd rather they trade Plouffe and signed a back-end reliever. But they haven't sat on their hands, either.

 

Ha - if you think trading for a backup Catcher (that is what he will be this year, it is not the "Twins way" to sit a veteran in Suzuki down) and taking a flyer on a guy who may very well end up being the teams 3rd or 4th best option at DH ( I don't think that will be the case, but its very possible).. is 2 fairly big deals... i dont know what to tell you

[Loosey]

 

While I doubt this will happen, if none, or only a few of the Twins young talent pans out, it will make little difference who they sign for FA's. They spent years losing to accumulate the current list of prospects. They either produce, or its back to the Dark Ages!

That's true for 90% of the teams.  Realistically only the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox could go out an buy an entire team if every one of their homegrown talents failed.  Every other team would have to piecemeal together a roster and hope they hit on draft picks and trades for prospects.

 

 

[dgwills]

It's been a pretty disappointing offseason for sure. The overall payroll is not really the issue for me though. If they would of been able to move Plouffe and Nolasco and replaced them with relievers or prospects I would of been happy. Maybe that wasn't possible. In previous seasons they signed some guys to long term contracts when the team wasn't going to compete anyways. They spent money, but it was kind of wasted. The Twins just need to make better moves and have a plan. 

If they didn't like the players available this year the smart move would be to spend that money in international free agency. I hear it's a strong group and you could gain a lot of assets that don't even have to be on the 40 man roster. The odds of the Twins doing that is pretty low of course.

[mazeville]

 

But by trading Hicks they now go into 2016 with a whole lot of uncertainty in the OF. Is the lineup/team actually improved by having Murphy in it 50% of the time? (While they might have to run out a 4th OF type in CF to start the year?)

 

As of now the opening day OF looks like: Sano-Rosario-Arcia, that sends up some serious red flags in my book. Hopefully Buxton earns his way onto the roster, but after his struggles last year, I'm not ready to just pencil him in just yet. Now, come June/July I am confident that Buxton will be ready, but at that point it may be too late. Ditto with some of the young arms figuring it out and coming up in June/July. Games in April count just as much as games in September.

 

I know we all want to see these young flamethrowers get a shot, but does anyone seriously think that TR, Molly etc will have 2 or 3 "rookies" in the pen on opening day? I would be shocked. More than likely Abad, Duensing, or someone else off the pile will be throwing meaningful innings in April and May, and that is what is so frustrating about the whole thing.

 

I'm not saying the Twins should have traded Hicks. I'd have rather they have traded Plouffe and put Sano at third. Actually, I'd have rather they put Mauer at third to take advantage of his athleticism and put Sano at first. 

 

All I said was they haven't sat on their hands, because they haven't. They've done some stuff. I don't agree with all of it. But I won't say they've done nothing.

[Platoon]

That's true for 90% of the teams.  Realistically only the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox could go out an buy an entire team if every one of their homegrown talents failed.  Every other team would have to piecemeal together a roster and hope they hit on draft picks and trades for prospects.

I agree with your point. To clarify my point, the Twins have an inordinate amount of not only young talent, but highly projected young talent. Talent that they are hoping and hyping to be the next playoff level core for several years to come. These players have to perform at an above average level. The Twins have no plan "B"! Teams in bigger markets, or with more aggressive ownership and a FO to match will be able to cobble together a very expensive competitive team. For numerous reasons, well documented on these pages, that ain't gonna happen in Twins Territory!