Article: 2016 Twins Roster Projections: The Starting Pitchers

[Mike Sixel]

 

If he's good, that's not a bad thing is it?

 

Agreed.

 

The worst thing him being is mediocre, not bad enough to replace, not good enough to put the team in position to win consistently. 

[tobi0040]

 

 Twins have no choice but to give him a shot with what he is being paid. If he succeeds, he gets peddled.

 

I just could not disagree with this more.  His salary is set in stone whether he plays or not.  The Twins should start the best players in an attempt to maximize wins. 

 

And Chris Young was paid 2-11.  So I am not sure a few good starts makes Nolasco's contract a commodity.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think that Kohl Stewart starts at Chattanooga.  He should not repeat Fort Myers because of Bencomo (who might not even be a Twin after Spring Training)

 

If you starts in Ft. Myers, it wouldn't be because of Bencomo. Bencomo is "filler." Stewart is (obviously) still a very good prospect so they just need to do what they think is best for his long-term development. In my opinion, that might be spending a month or two in Ft. Myers before moving up. 

 

You could replace Bencomo with someone like David Martinez or Buddy Boshers. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think Seth is pretty much right on in his predictions. I hope they don't wait long on the FTM guys moving up, if they have success.

[birddog]

TR has to have nightmares of him signing Nolasco even though at the time most of us were in favor of it. Since it was his signature on the deal he has no choice but to see it to fruition. He has a professional and personal investment in each player so it has to be excruciatingly painful when he is confronted with a Nolasco situation when he still believes in his player. He has a very tough job, but I know he will do what is best for the team.

[gmarais66]

Unless he gets shelled in spring training, Nolasco will be in the starting rotation. That's just the way the Twins have always done things. I can't see that changing. He's the guy they're paying the big money. Unfortunately, it means that Duffey will likely start the season in Rochester. Is it the right choice? Heck no... Not by any stretch of the imagination, but we will have to endure Nolasco, at least until May, I would imagine. Then they'll stick him on the DL with some kind of injury (real or imagined) and we will see Duffey again.

[bluechipper]

Unless he gets shelled in spring training, Nolasco will be in the starting rotation. That's just the way the Twins have always done things. I can't see that changing. He's the guy they're paying the big money. Unfortunately, it means that Duffey will likely start the season in Rochester. Is it the right choice? Heck no... Not by any stretch of the imagination, but we will have to endure Nolasco, at least until May, I would imagine. Then they'll stick him on the DL with some kind of injury (real or imagined) and we will see Duffey again.

If Duffey pitches well in spring training, I would be totally shocked if Nolasco was in the rotation and he wasn't. The only person Nolasco has a shot at replacing would be Tommy Milone in this scenario.

[nater79a]

While most folks have their eyes on the Fort Myers rotation, and with good reason, the Kernels starting staff piques my interest. Seems to be a lot of under the radar talent there.

 

I think this is the year Sam Clay finally breaks through at Cedar Rapids. Also like Stashak and Cutura; both pitched well at E-Town last year. Add in Rodriguez and Gibbons and it should be a fun year at Veterans Memorial Stadium.

[birddog]

Great to hear as we plan our 4th annual Cedar Rapids trip for this summer.

[gmarais66]

 

If Duffey pitches well in spring training, I would be totally shocked if Nolasco was in the rotation and he wasn't. The only person Nolasco has a shot at replacing would be Tommy Milone in this scenario.

If all three are pitching well in spring training, Duffey is the guy that will be out of the rotation, heading to Rochester. It's not what I (or I'm sure most fans) want to see, but it's reality. Nolasco is the veteran with the big contract. That alone gives him a big advantage over Duffey when it comes to deciding the rotation. Take a look back over Ryan's tenure and you will see this is the way he always does things.

[TRex]

 

If all three are pitching well in spring training, Duffey is the guy that will be out of the rotation, heading to Rochester. It's not what I (or I'm sure most fans) want to see, but it's reality. Nolasco is the veteran with the big contract. That alone gives him a big advantage over Duffey when it comes to deciding the rotation. Take a look back over Ryan's tenure and you will see this is the way he always does things.

I still say if Duffey isn't in the Twins rotation, I would rather see him in the Twins bullpen rather than the Rochester rotation. We know he can work out of a bullpen and can also be effective for multiple innings. Of all the Twins pitchers, he is the one most likely to fit the St. Louis Cardinals mold.

Edited January 26, 2016 by TRex

[Kwak]

Leading off with:  "They went from the worst starting staff in baseball to merely being in the bottom quadrant."  Parsing this--merely in the bottom quadrant--like "hey, no big deal.  We're good [enough]."  Oh so many posters got bent out of shape because of the bullpen--specifically a LOOGY--yet here is a far more serious problem!  Continuing with "...depth in AAA and AA..."  The only "depth" I see (and smell) is the BS about what (who) are at these crucial levels.  These guys were "glossed-over" with references to many who will be promoted from the A ball levels--presumably to replace those beginning the season at AAA and AA levels.  At best, depth = placeholders. 

 

Then, we read in Summary:  "...but there are a lot of #3's and #4's...".  Are we to infer (considering the quote about the cost of pitchers) that this is "a good thing", or is the statement an explanation of why the starting staff is in the bottom quadrant (wretched)?

Edited January 26, 2016 by Kwak

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see anyone saying "oh, great, we're set", or did I miss something?

[beckmt]

I would hope that all the Twins starters pitch well in spring training.  At the end of spring training teams will have injuries and be looking for a starting pitcher.  Then you trade one of the bigger money men.(or Tommy Milone).  I would rather clear one of the three righties.

[tobi0040]

 

Leading off with:  "They went from the worst starting staff in baseball to merely being in the bottom quadrant."  Parsing this--merely in the bottom quadrant--like "hey, no big deal.  We're good [enough]."  Oh so many posters got bent out of shape because of the bullpen--specifically a LOOGY--yet here is a far more serious problem!  Continuing with "...depth in AAA and AA..."  The only "depth" I see (and smell) is the BS about what (who) are at these crucial levels.  These guys were "glossed-over" with references to many who will be promoted from the A ball levels--presumably to replace those beginning the season at AAA and AA levels.  At best, depth = placeholders. 

 

Then, we read in Summary:  "...but there are a lot of #3's and #4's...".  Are we to infer (considering the quote about the cost of pitchers) that this is "a good thing", or is the statement an explanation of why the starting staff is in the bottom quadrant (wretched)?

 

The issue is Hughes, Gibson, and Santana have spots locked down.  Milone is a middle of the road, nice to have. We want to see what we have in Duffey.  And then you have Berrios and May who could be better than all the rest.

 

I just don't think we have that level of talent in the pen.  We may, but Burdi really struggled last year.  Melotakis hasn't pitched much, etc

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by tobi0040

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

If Duffey gets sent down, and both he and Berrios pitch well, which of them gets called up first? I'm guessing it's Duffey, because he's already got his clock started. So Nolasco, right now, is probably blocking both Duffey and Berrios. That is a shame.

[Dantes929]

 

Here is the evidence. Sorry to use ERA but FIP in the minors isn’t something I care to go find since baseball reference doesn’t have it. ERA is good enough, especially with the K rates.

 

Elizabethton:
Berrios (age 18) 1.29 ERA, 14.1 K/9
Duffey (age 21) 1.42 ERA, 12.8 K/9

 

Cedar Rapids:
Berrios (age 19) 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9
Duffey (age 22) 2.78 ERA, 7.3 K/9

 

Fort Myers:
Berrios (Age 20) 1.97 ERA, 10.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 22) 4.02 ERA, 6.0 K/9

 

New Britain/Chattanooga:
Berrios (Age 20) 3.22 ERA, 8.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 23/24) 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9

 

Rochester:
Berrios (Age 21) 3.08 ERA, 9.1 K/9
Duffey (Age 24) 2.75 ERA, 7.5 K/9

 

Duffey has also given up more HR/9 at every step of the way. The key thing to me is the age thing – Duffey is young to be making it to the bigs and Berrios is over three years younger but Berrios is still better the whole way up. Duffey still has had a very nice minor league career (he’s recovered nicely from a dip in strikeout rate which I'm sure has a rational "he was working on his changeup" explanation) but only one of these guys looks elite. Duffey is merely a very good prospect (for which we are grateful) while Berrios is a guy you can have Cy Young dreams about.

I actually like ERA and in two of those seasons and most notably the most recent Duffey had the better ERA.    I get the age point but this is not about potential.  It is about who is best now.      Duffey had the better ERA last season at the time of promotion and excelled at the major league level.    I don't care if he is 16 or 30 for these purposes.    I would not dream of trading Berrios to get Milone but hard to say Milone wasn't a better pitcher than Berrios in 2015.   Below 4 ERA in the majors and 4-0 with a .70 ERA and a 15.67 SO/W ratio in AAA.   Berrios is all about potential.  If I needed to win a game right now there are other guys ahead of him and Duffey is one of them.

[Dantes929]

 

Duffey was promoted because he had more experience (AAA at the time) than Berrios (AA at the time), because the Twins didn't want Berrios to pitch too many innings and due to service time considerations – not because he was better than Berrios.

 

You have to remember that Duffey originally came up for just a spot start or two due to injury but as he pitched well and guys who had been scuffling were unable to come back, the Twins stuck with him. It’s kind of a strange thing where the guy you're most excited about (Berrios) doesn't get the call because you don't want to start that clock for just a few starts (if someone had been done for the year I imagine you would have seen Berrios because it would be worth the service time/innings things to see him push the Twins towards the playoffs). To Duffey's credit, he took the chance and excelled, putting himself in a position where he'll need a terrible spring to not make the MLB rotation. (Which is funny because if the MLB staff had been healthy last year and Duffey wasn't called upon, he'd have no shot at the rotation this year because Berrios would be the guy up first - he'd be stuck as the second guy up). 

Don't get me wrong, I’m super stoked about Duffey  

Don't get me wrong.  I am stoked about Berrios but I believe at the time of the promotion Duffey was about half a run better than Berrios.   I was fine with the promotion just like I was fine when Pinto was promoted a couple years back.  Simply put they earned it.    Not too concerned about the reasons for the promotion or where Duffey might be if it hadn't happened much like i don't think anyone is too concerned about what might have happened with Gehrig if Wally Pipp had gone 4-4 instead of sitting out a game

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If he's good, that's not a bad thing is it?

while true, he won't be "good". He's had one good season in his career and bless him, he capitalized on it. He isn't capable of repeating. I agree with Mike, worst case scenario is also best case scenario, Nolasco is mediocre and therefore untradeable and uncuttable, and he blocks Jose Berrios and/or Duffey and/or May from the rotation all season long.

[Thrylos]

 

while true, he won't be "good". He's had one good season in his career and bless him, he capitalized on it.

 

Fact check:

 

Nolasco had one season of 4.1 WAR (2009) one season of 4.0 WAR (2008) one season of 3.2 WAR (2013) and one season of 3.0 WAR (2011).  As a comparison, Hughes had only 1 season of higher than 2.6 WAR, and that was last season (and HE took advantage of that).  Gibson's highest WAR was 2.5.  Ervin Santana has 2 seasons with WAR >= 3.0 2006 and 2008. Milone's highest career WAR was 2.8 in 2012... (fWAR btw)

 

Just sayin'

[birddog]

Nolasco doesn't have many fans among us. We'd all rather see Duffey and Berrios start the season if they are deserving, but if Bryant isn't taken north with the Cubs after his monstrous ST last year, Twins fans can't be too upset if Berrios doesn't either. We fans don't like it, but that's the way it's done. We have no choice but to root for Nolasco and Mauer because management doesn't want to eat around $95 million over the remainder of their contracts.

[jimbo92107]

You do realize you just said that Tommy Milone will beat out Jose Berrios for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation out of spring training. In other words, in the opinion of the Twins coaches, they will conclude Tommy Milone will be a better pitcher this season than Jose Berrios.

 

Just making sure you realize you weren't just thinking that, you actually typed it. 8-O

[Dantes929]

 

You do realize you just said that Tommy Milone will beat out Jose Berrios for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation out of spring training. In other words, in the opinion of the Twins coaches, they will conclude Tommy Milone will be a better pitcher this season than Jose Berrios.

 

Just making sure you realize you weren't just thinking that, you actually typed it. 8-O

See my 6:01 post.  I have no problem saying Milone was a better pitcher than Berrios last season or saying he is probably better right now and I have no problem with Milone starting out the season in the rotation.  The season is 162 games long so saying Milone is the better guy out of Spring Training is not the same as saying Milone will be the better guy July-Sept.    For me, Hughes is the guy that Berrios should be beating out for a rotation spot.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Fact check:

 

Nolasco had one season of 4.1 WAR (2009) one season of 4.0 WAR (2008) one season of 3.2 WAR (2013) and one season of 3.0 WAR (2011). As a comparison, Hughes had only 1 season of higher than 2.6 WAR, and that was last season (and HE took advantage of that). Gibson's highest WAR was 2.5. Ervin Santana has 2 seasons with WAR >= 3.0 2006 and 2008. Milone's highest career WAR was 2.8 in 2012... (fWAR btw)

 

Just sayin'

Hard to argue, thanks for your clarification/research into my wild claim.

 

It further cements my opinion that this rotation will most likely be pretty poor unless the GM is willing to put young guys in front of established guys regardless of contract.

[Seth Stohs]

 

You do realize you just said that Tommy Milone will beat out Jose Berrios for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation out of spring training. In other words, in the opinion of the Twins coaches, they will conclude Tommy Milone will be a better pitcher this season than Jose Berrios.

 

Just making sure you realize you weren't just thinking that, you actually typed it. 8-O

 

I've said both of these things several times this offseason.

 

1.) I believe JO Berrios will be better than any of the five starting pitchers, and 

2.) I believe he will start the season in AAA. 

 

I've also said that the Twins have a long history of (right or wrong) not worrying about the service time on Opening Day decisions, so I think he'll get a legitimate chance to make it.

 

But, I think he's going to have to be remarkably good (which he could be) to make it Opening Day.

[Ryan Atkins]

 

Here is the evidence. Sorry to use ERA but FIP in the minors isn’t something I care to go find since baseball reference doesn’t have it. ERA is good enough, especially with the K rates.

 

Elizabethton:
Berrios (age 18) 1.29 ERA, 14.1 K/9
Duffey (age 21) 1.42 ERA, 12.8 K/9

 

Cedar Rapids:
Berrios (age 19) 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9
Duffey (age 22) 2.78 ERA, 7.3 K/9

 

Fort Myers:
Berrios (Age 20) 1.97 ERA, 10.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 22) 4.02 ERA, 6.0 K/9

 

New Britain/Chattanooga:
Berrios (Age 20) 3.22 ERA, 8.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 23/24) 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9

 

Rochester:
Berrios (Age 21) 3.08 ERA, 9.1 K/9
Duffey (Age 24) 2.75 ERA, 7.5 K/9

 

Duffey has also given up more HR/9 at every step of the way. The key thing to me is the age thing – Duffey is young to be making it to the bigs and Berrios is over three years younger but Berrios is still better the whole way up. Duffey still has had a very nice minor league career (he’s recovered nicely from a dip in strikeout rate which I'm sure has a rational "he was working on his changeup" explanation) but only one of these guys looks elite. Duffey is merely a very good prospect (for which we are grateful) while Berrios is a guy you can have Cy Young dreams about.

 

You're forgetting the only stat that actually matters to the Twins:

 

Duffy: MLB Wins: 5, MLB Losses 1, MLB W-L%: .833

Berrios: MLB Wins: 0, MLB Losses 0, MLB W-L%: .000

 

Berrios will get his chance and when he surpasses those MLB numbers and wins numerous Cy Young awards in the process, then we can all stand up and cheer. Until then, he is simply a promising prospect just as Willie Banks, Pat Mahomes, J.D. Durbin, Dan Serafini, and Adam Johnson were once promising prospects.

[alarp33]

Doug Fister just got 1 year, $7 million from the Astros.  If last year was a fluke, I think its fair to he would've been the unquestioned Ace of this staff.  

 

That being said, looking forward to seeing more Nolasco, Milone, etc. 

[tobi0040]

 

Doug Fister just got 1 year, $7 million from the Astros.  If last year was a fluke, I think its fair to he would've been the unquestioned Ace of this staff.  

 

That being said, looking forward to seeing more Nolasco, Milone, etc. 

 

That is a quality signing by the Astros.  His ERA+ was 96 last year.  So he wasn't horrible.  This would have made sense for us prior to tendering Milone (Milone career ERA+ is 99, Fister is 117).

 

But right now I am not upset that we haven't added a body into the SP mix here, especially on a 1 year bounce back deal.  I would like to see what we have in Duffey and don't want a rental blocking a single pitch from JO.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

That is a quality signing by the Astros.  His ERA+ was 96 last year.  So he wasn't horrible.  This would have made sense for us prior to tendering Milone (Milone career ERA+ is 99, Fister is 117).

 

But right now I am not upset that we haven't added a body into the SP mix here, especially on a 1 year bounce back deal.  I would like to see what we have in Duffey and don't want a rental blocking a single pitch from JO.

 

Gibson, Santana, Hughes are the only real locks in the rotation IMO, May should be one, but they seem to prefer getting 80 innings from him instead of 200.  

 

Hopefully I'm wrong on Duffey, but he's far from a sure thing.  They should have cut bait with Nolasco by now.  Milone could've been moved.  

 

Plenty of ways to get a potential steal of a Free Agent into this rotation, and still have room for Berrios.  

[Foghorn Leghorn]

My guess

Santana

Hughes 

Duffy

Gibson

Berrios