Article: Who's Left? The Remaining Southpaw RP Market

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins entered the offseason with a glaring need for left-handed relievers. Here we are nearing the end of January and they still have not signed one such player to a major-league contract.What Terry Ryan has done is assemble a group of intriguing arms with non-guaranteed commitments to go along with the (altogether decent) in-house options.

 

Fernando Abad, who has been quite effective for the A's over the past three seasons, becomes the most established player in the mix, and appears to be the leading contender at this point for top lefty in the bullpen.

 

He'll be joined in spring training by some other outside guys that offer intrigue. Buddy Boshers, inked to a minor-league contract in December, is coming off an eye-opening season in independent ball. Mike Strong, claimed off waivers from the Marlins on Friday, has piled up a lot of strikeouts in the minors.

 

And then you have Ryan O'Rourke, Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean, Aaron Thompson, and maybe Tommy Milone. If that's the group that the Twins want to take to camp, they'll probably be able to head north with one or two adequate southpaws to complement closer Glen Perkins.

 

But this is a collection that ultimately lacks experience in a very evident way. Aside from Abad, none of the pitchers competing for these important roles has made more than a few dozen relief appearances in the majors. And for those that have, the results haven't been there.

 

As for Abad, while he looks fine on paper, there's a reason that no other club wanted to give him an MLB contract, so he is a gamble in his own right.

 

Given their aspirations for this season, it would be surprising if the Twins didn't add one more veteran lefty. They are known to value the qualities that such a player brings to the table, and with Antonio Bastardo off the market, any remaining free agent can likely be had on a one-year deal. Here's a look at those remaining options, with a quick glance at the pros and cons for each.

 

Matt Thornton

 

Pros: Shuts down lefty hitters year after year. Held them to 484 OPS in 2015. Familiar to Twins, having spent many seasons with the White Sox. Tall, sturdy specimen at 6'6" with a long track record of durability (10 straight seasons with 60+ appearances).

 

Cons: Turned 39 in September. Velocity has been declining along with his strikeout rates. Last year he averaged a career-low 5.0 strikeouts per nine innings – not exactly what this K-starved bullpen needs.

 

Neal Cotts

 

Pros: Spent time with the Twins last season, delivering solid performances down the stretch. Steady vet with 3.03 ERA over the past three years. Not overly vulnerable to right-handed hitters.

 

Cons: Limited upside. He's had one season in the last decade (2013) that would truly be considered a stand-out. Occasional control problems. Turning 36 in March, he's not as old as Thornton, but he has seen a similar downward velo trend.

 

Randy Choate

 

Pros: Has been used as a true lefty specialist, making 196 appearances over the last three years with St. Louis and recording only 296 outs. He has been effective in that capacity, with a 1.12 WHIP and only four home runs allowed during that span. Fits the bill for experience; has played with six different teams, has pitched in the playoffs five times, and has led the league in appearances twice.

 

Cons: At 40, he's the oldest player on this list. And while he has been very good as a lefty one out guy, do we really expect Paul Molitor to use him that way? The manager didn't really show a propensity for doing so last year.

 

Franklin Morales

 

Pros: He was the No. 1 lefty option last year in a bullpen that helped carry the Royals to a World Series title. Held left-handed hitters to a .192 average. At 30, far younger than the names listed above him here.

 

Cons: Very inconsistent track record. Terrible against right-handed hitters. Has averaged more than four walks per nine innings in his career. Represented by Scott Boras.

 

Sean Marshall

 

Pros: From 2010 through 2013, he was one of the National League's finest left-handed relievers, posting a 2.44 ERA and 253/60 K/BB ratio in 221 innings. Would carry substantial upside on a minor-league deal.

 

Cons: Recurring shoulder problems limited him to 16 appearances in 2013, 15 in 2014 and zero in 2015.

 

Manny Parra

 

Pros: Has been mostly effective in Cincinnati for the past three years.

 

Cons: He's been fairly mediocre since a career year in 2013, and last year he battled elbow and bicep issues.

 

Eric O'Flaherty

 

Pros: Consistently exception from 2009 through 2014. During that span, he never posted an ERA above 3.04 or a WHIP above 1.25. Sharp command and very tough to hit.

 

Cons: His 2015 was a disaster. In stints with the A's and Mets, O'Flaherty posted an 8.10 ERA and allowed 47 hits in 30 innings. He has generally had a hard time staying healthy in recent years.

 

Craig Breslow

 

Pros: Very fine reliever for many years after leaving Twins in 2009. Effective against both righties and lefties when he's on his game.

 

Cons: He hasn't been very good over the past couple seasons and, at age 35, do we really expect that to turn around?

 

Brian Duensing

 

Pros: Drafted and developed by the Twins. Has held lefty hitters to .238/.289/.325 in his career. Turning 33 in a month, not as old as many others on this list.

 

Cons: He was bad in 2015, even against lefties, and he has always been a liability against righties.

 

Who would you choose from this group? Or would you be more comfortable sticking with what the Twins have?

 

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[beckmt]

You missed Corey WIlliams and Mason Melakokios(need help with spelling his name).Either one could  make the opening day roster and probably within a year be blocked  with a 2 - 3 year Left handed reliever contract.

[old nurse]

Was the list of available free agents a way to say Abad isn't bad in comparison to what is left. There must be confidence in the numbers from AAA or AA that would parlay to major league success

[DocBauer]

Either Marshal, hoping he is healthy, or O'Flaherty on a bounce back. Both? A pair of 1 year contracts wouldn't be outrageous or financially dangerous, would give the pen a huge lift, and wouldn't force any rush of Rogers or Melotakis to such a prominent role.

 

Marshal would pretty much be on a make good deal. We all know how quickly the fortunes of a RP can change. O'Flaherty is a big bounce back candidate.

[stringer bell]

I will remind everyone here that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. If any of the guys above are signed to a major-league contract, someone will have to be designated. Right now, the DFA list would be pretty sparse, starting with someone like Kennys Vargas.

[tobi0040]

The will to add talent to the pen, while strong among TD readers, is simply not there for the Twins.

 

There hasn't been so much as smoke to anyone out there. I don't consider a one year offer for 3-4M to bastardo smoke.

[Seth Stohs]

Any of them for one year is fine. 

 

Is Breslow still looking for an opportunity to start?

 

I've always liked Franklyn Morales. He's got really good stuff. That would be my vote.

[Thrylos]

 

You missed Corey WIlliams and Mason Melakokios(need help with spelling his name).

 

Would be fun to hear what Bret will do with Mason Melotakis' name

[Winston Smith]

Will any of these guys play for free?

[mikelink45]

You said an intriguing group and I am still looking for something intriguing.  At this point, roll the dice with the young guys, forget about another savvy vet.  There is nothing here that looks better than Burdi or Rogers or any other number of players in the minors.  So we do not have a LOOGY - Perkins has shown that it does not matter which way the batters swing if you throw good stuff.  We are going to be around .500 again, build for the future - our young guys should be ready in another year for a bigger push and we should have that in mind with the 40 man. 

[tobi0040]

 

You said an intriguing group and I am still looking for something intriguing.  At this point, roll the dice with the young guys, forget about another savvy vet.  There is nothing here that looks better than Burdi or Rogers or any other number of players in the minors.  So we do not have a LOOGY - Perkins has shown that it does not matter which way the batters swing if you throw good stuff.  We are going to be around .500 again, build for the future - our young guys should be ready in another year for a bigger push and we should have that in mind with the 40 man. 

 

A LOOGY is nice for the LH bopper in the 7th or 8th inning. We could not possibly use Perkins outside of a save situation.

Edited January 25, 2016 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

 

Would be fun to hear what Bret will do with Mason Melotakis' name

 

How about Chargois?

 

Frankly I hope he says both often this year.

 

I don't look at the list above and see anything remotely interesting.

[Mike Sixel]

Taylor Rogers. Phew, that was hard.

[Kwak]

I reject the entire premise:  " ... have a glaring need for left-handed relievers."  RP's aren't even the #1 need for the entire team, much less LHed ones.  Scoring runs in key situations was far more important--putting an opponent away when having the lead.  

 

The throwing arm of a pitcher isn't key--it's whether he succeeded or failed.  The top pitchers (RP or SP) succeed not because they are (or are not) LH.  The "need" for LH pitching is simply a crutch (excuse?) posed by management--a "slippery slope argument". The Twins have lots of RP-candidates in their system--it's time to use them.  

 

I readily admit this argument is useful for a blog to elicit discussion--but little else.  To recommend spending on mediocre pitchers because they are LH is self-defeating--read the discussions on certain Twins starting pitchers as examples.

[Monkeypaws]

 

As for Abad, while he looks fine on paper, there's a reason that no other club wanted to give him an MLB contract, so he is a gamble in his own right.

 

I think the same could be said of the available lefties mentioned in the article.

[tobi0040]

 

I reject the entire premise:  " ... have a glaring need for left-handed relievers."  RP's aren't even the #1 need for the entire team, much less LHed ones.  Scoring runs in key situations was far more important--putting an opponent away when having the lead.  

 

The throwing arm of a pitcher isn't key--it's whether he succeeded or failed.  The top pitchers (RP or SP) succeed not because they are (or are not) LH.  The "need" for LH pitching is simply a crutch (excuse?) posed by management--a "slippery slope argument". The Twins have lots of RP-candidates in their system--it's time to use them.  

 

I readily admit this argument is useful for a blog to elicit discussion--but little else.  To recommend spending on mediocre pitchers because they are LH is self-defeating--read the discussions on certain Twins starting pitchers as examples.

 

Here are the pen's stats from last year. 

 

23rd in WAR.
21st in ERA.
24th in FIP.
28th in xFIP.
30th in k per 9.

 

That is pretty glaring to me, especially when the best reliever has been hurt down the stretch the last two years. Heck, if you take the Royals 2.72 ERA and our 3.95 ERA and assume the pen averages 3 innings a game, then we spot them .4 runs every game.

 

By comparison, our offense was 13th in run scored.  Our starters were 13th in WAR and 15th in ERA

 

 

Edited January 25, 2016 by tobi0040

[Nick Nelson]

 

I readily admit this argument is useful for a blog to elicit discussion--but little else.  To recommend spending on mediocre pitchers because they are LH is self-defeating--read the discussions on certain Twins starting pitchers as examples.

I don't think this is really true at all. Bullpen is important and whatever reliability the Twins have there, it's all in the form of righties (excepting the closer Perkins). You need to have guys you can call on situationally to get LH hitters out in tough spots. Right now they have guys who might be able to do that, but outside of Abad, no one who has done it. 

[birddog]

We've seen enough "soft throwing lefties" and none of these guys are worth what we would lose off the 40-man. I still think TR erred by not getting Chapman. He is as close to a sure thing as there is and the Yanks didn't give up equal value. Go with what we have for now giving the young guys a shot. 

[Secondary User]

This is going to be obvious to most, but In regard to the whole "handedness of the pitcher doesn't matter":

 

That holds water with starters. Starters need to be effective against both sides in order to work multiple trips through the order effectively, and if they sacrifice a minor platoon split, that's not a deal breaker. Particularly against LH batters, since somewhere between 60-70% of the PAs come as RHB, so the effects are mitigated.

 

But the game is becoming more and more situational. Bullpens are being used more aggressively and platoon splits are being leveraged to give their team the best possible chance of winning. A bullpen NEEDS to have a guy (if not two) that come come in situationally and shut down a left handed bat.

 

Ideally, yes you would want them to be able to get righties out too, but the fact of the matter is that platoon splits exist for a reason. It's harder to hit a same handed pitcher. So if you're looking for someone to lockdown lefties, a LHP is the best bet.

 

All that being said, with his very good changeup, Trevor could be solid against lefties, though it hasn't shown up in his results yet

[USAFChief]

 

I reject the entire premise:  " ... have a glaring need for left-handed relievers."  RP's aren't even the #1 need for the entire team, much less LHed ones.  Scoring runs in key situations was far more important--putting an opponent away when having the lead.  

 

The throwing arm of a pitcher isn't key--it's whether he succeeded or failed.  The top pitchers (RP or SP) succeed not because they are (or are not) LH.  The "need" for LH pitching is simply a crutch (excuse?) posed by management--a "slippery slope argument". The Twins have lots of RP-candidates in their system--it's time to use them.  

 

I readily admit this argument is useful for a blog to elicit discussion--but little else.  To recommend spending on mediocre pitchers because they are LH is self-defeating--read the discussions on certain Twins starting pitchers as examples.

The overwhelming majority of LH hitters do not hit as well against LH pitching as they do against RH pitching.  This was true 100 years ago, is true today, and will likely be true 100 years from now.

 

Having a tough LH reliever, who in addition to being tough, throws LHed, is a tried and true method of reducing the effectiveness of opposing LH hitters late in a game.

 

I agree that spending money on LH pitchers who cannot get ANYbody out makes little sense.

 

I do not agree lacking a decent to good LOOGY wasn't/isn't a need.

[BK432]

 

I will remind everyone here that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. If any of the guys above are signed to a major-league contract, someone will have to be designated. Right now, the DFA list would be pretty sparse, starting with someone like Kennys Vargas.

 

This is true, eventually, but it could be possible that some of the above names Nick gave us are gettable on a minor league deal with the invite to big league spring training. By the time a 40 man addition would be needed, the move could have simply taken care of itself (60 day DL, trade, etc.). Makes sense to continue to monitor the market and stay in touch with agents, in my opinion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for Abad, while he looks fine on paper, there's a reason that no other club wanted to give him an MLB contract, so he is a gamble in his own right.

Does Abad really look fine on paper?

 

Year - ERA+ - gmLI - wOBA vs LHB

2012 - 80 - 0.69 - .337

2013 - 114 - 0.60 - .346

2014 - 238 - 1.15 - 249

2015 - 97 - 0.72 - .364

 

For some context, MLB LHP wOBA vs LHB as a whole has been .286-.295 the last 4 years.  Duensing for his career has been .273 vs LHB and .353 vs RHB.  Even RHP JR Graham managed a .338 vs LHB last year.  And Tim Stauffer had a 0.62 gmLI in mop-up work for the Twins last year.

 

Outside of 2014, Abad has been a mop-up man the past 4 years, with results somewhere between awful and mediocre for a left-handed reliever

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You missed Corey WIlliams and Mason Melakokios(need help with spelling his name).Either one could  make the opening day roster and probably within a year be blocked  with a 2 - 3 year Left handed reliever contract.

The odds of Williams or Melotakis making the opening roster are about as good as me winning the lottery.  Williams threw only 33 innings in 2015, with only 10 career IP above A-ball, and Melotakis threw zero innings last year, with 16 career IP above A-ball.

 

And none of the FA pitchers on this list will sign for more than one year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

O'Rourke managed a .261 wOBA and 38.8 K% vs LHB in his limited MLB duty last year.  I'd say that's delivering some results, although as Nick points out, it's not clear that the Twins are willing to aggressively use a reliever in LOOGY fashion.

[Nick Nelson]

I see number of people espousing the strategy of staying away from guaranteed free agent contracts, opting instead to head to camp with the present collection of non-roster invites and prospects, then choosing the best ones. 

 

Theoretically, I like this strategy, because it isn't THAT hard to find a lefty who gets lefties out, and it keeps you away from any monetary commitments that would block a younger player.

 

However, it is also dependent on the Twins identifying the right players for the bullpen, often -- in this case -- based on minimal MLB data. I just haven't seen a lot in recent years that gives me confidence in that. There have been a lot of really head-scratching personnel decisions in that department that have taken far too long to correct. 

 

If you sign a guy like Thornton or Choate, you're taking that element out, because then you have a guy locked in, with everyone else operating as depth and backup plans. I'm confident those guys could both be effective if utilized properly. I'm not as confident they would be utilized properly.

[savvyspy]

Our existing options are just as bad as these listed. The front office has masterfully left itself no options which they will turn around and tell everyone "there are no viable options" to improve the bullpen.

 

There really isn't any point in getting upset or even discussing it at this point. Their bullpen is going to be horrendous. They might as well just go with their internal options and get on with it.

[Nick Nelson]

 

O'Rourke managed a .261 wOBA and 38.8 K% vs LHB in his limited MLB duty last year.  I'd say that's delivering some results, although as Nick points out, it's not clear that the Twins are willing to aggressively use a reliever in LOOGY fashion.

But O'Rourke is also an example of why this strategy is dangerous. He had all of the numbers in the minors to suggest he was more than capable. He started off smoothly, and Molitor even used him pretty well (more PA v. LH than RH), but things went off the rails and he had these horrible control spells based on, what we can only assume, were adjustments to the MLB stage and learning curve.

 

This is something you have to factor in when looking at a rookie like Taylor Rogers who looks great for the role on paper. 

[jay]

 

That is pretty glaring to me, especially when the best reliever has been hurt down the stretch the last two years. Heck, if you take the Royals 2.72 ERA and our 3.95 ERA and assume the pen averages 3 innings a game, then we spot them .4 runs every game.

 

The Royals are an interesting example to use. Yes, the pen needs to be better. Signing a LOOGY or LH pitchers isn't the only way to do it, as evidenced by their top lefty being still available and on this list...

[Mike Sixel]

I was espousing what the Twins would do, not what I'd do......

[tobi0040]

 

The Royals are an interesting example to use. Yes, the pen needs to be better. Signing a LOOGY or LH pitchers isn't the only way to do it, as evidenced by their top lefty being still available and on this list...

 

A lefty is one of the needs.  But we really needed to add one guy that was in the Jepsen range, or better.