Article: 2016 Roster Projections: The Outfielders (Part 1)

[ThejacKmp]

 

I am not arguing that California and Germany are equals in terms of baseball. 

 

The disagreement we have is by the time Hicks arrived with the Twins at 18, Kepler had been here for two years and played professional ball for two seasons. The Twins through resources at him.  That two year period would have caught him up to at least some extent.  So I think the two could be compared.  Not a perfect comparison but one nonetheless

 

Even two years in Kepler was an incredibly raw prospect. If you had dropped him into the amateur draft at age 18 he would not have sniffed the first round (interesting side topic on where he might have gone - my guess would be that 3rd/4th round where players with tons of potential but a low floor go?) like Hicks.  Even with two years working with the Twins, Kepler was nowhere near the prospect Hicks was going in the mid-first round.  And that's why I think it's pretty useless to compare the two. The type of prospects they were, the reasons for their original struggles and the nature of their AA year (Kepler's is far superior to Hicks' in every measurable way) all make it a pretty iffy comparison.

 

And that's even ignoring the fact that saying "Player A did this so therefore we should worry Player B will too" is always a weird argument. Denard Span made a jump from the minors to the majors after an abnormally strong year (much more dramatic of a turn around than Hicks) and has been a very good major leaguer ever since he made the jump.  That doesn't mean that Kepler will do well because Span did well anymore than it means Kepler will struggle because Hicks struggled.

Kepler has a pretty unique path to where he is now and some pretty good evidence (both statistical and scouting/background wise) to support that he will be all right. Using Hicks as a cautionary tale seems dubious to me.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't get the lack of confidence in Buxton starting the season in CF. It would take an injury or a terrible spring slump to keep him from breaking camp with the Twins. Twins wouldn't have traded Hicks if they had doubts.

 

I generally think that barring injury the everyday roster is pretty close to locked in.

That better be the case.. An OF of Sano-Rosario-Arcia just makes me cringe thinking about it. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't get the lack of confidence in Buxton starting the season in CF. It would take an injury or a terrible spring slump to keep him from breaking camp with the Twins. Twins wouldn't have traded Hicks if they had doubts.

 

I generally think that barring injury the everyday roster is pretty close to locked in.

 

Haven't they been quoted as saying he was brought up before he was ready?

 

I think they traded Hicks because they had NO CATCHERS other than Suzuki, and wanted a catcher. I think it has nothing to do with April, May, or June CF next year. 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[ThejacKmp]

 

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Rosario-Arcia in the OF if the Sano to the OF talk is legit.

 

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Buxton-Rosario in the OF. Time will tell.

 

Even if Buxton doesn't make the team because the Twins are insane I think you'll see Sano-Mastrionni/Benson/Sweeny-Rosario in the OF. This concept that Arcia has a spot without Buxton has never made sense to me. He would need a monster spring to get a starting job locked up. Otherwise I think the Twins have shown that they are willing to have a CF who can't hit much start the year with the idea that a young gun will come up.

 

And I like Arcia.  I just think he's a 4th OF this year pretty much no matter what.

[drjim]

 

Haven't they been quoted as saying he was brought up before he was ready?

 

I think they traded Hicks because they had NO CATCHERS other than Suzuki, and wanted a catcher. I think it has nothing to do with April, May, or June CF next year. 

 

Sure, but it was almost 3 months (counting DL time).

 

I think only one catcher is preferable to no CFs.

[drjim]

 

That better be the case.. An OF of Sano-Rosario-Arcia just makes me cringe thinking about it. 

 

I do think we'll see that on occasion, but won't be plan a out of camp.

[BoomBoom]

 

{About Hicks}

He did not have to make a cultural transition or move across the world when starting professional baseball. {as compared to Kepler}

 

Not trying to make a huge issue here, but I think you take for granted the cultural adjustment African American players (ex. Hicks) have to make in the game of professional baseball.  Many people think that it should be an easier transition for African Americans because they are from the USA, but on every team in baseball, they are the minority.  Just saying - food for thought...............

 

80% of the people on Kepler's team look like him.  Kepler also speaks fluent English.   7% of the Twins last year (with expanded roster) looked like Hicks.  In 2014 Hicks was the only African American on the expanded roster.  Was it really an easier path for Hicks than for Kepler?

 

Most people think more about the transitions for Latino and International players in professional baseball compared to the true minority of the game (African Americans).   This is obviously another thread topic, but I wanted bloggers to think about their comments as it pertained to past and future roster moves in the Twins organization.  Not just Black and White all the time (pun intended) in regards to who has the easier cultural transition.  Seeing people who reflect your own image once and a while goes a long way in confidence and development.  

[Platoon]

I don't get the lack of confidence in Buxton starting the season in CF. It would take an injury or a terrible spring slump to keep him from breaking camp with the Twins. Twins wouldn't have traded Hicks if they had doubts.

 

I generally think that barring injury the everyday roster is pretty close to locked in.

Is the lack of confidence amongst the fans, or the FO? If it was me, he would start, if for no other reason that they painted themselves into a corner with the "Sano Experiment"! They need coverage out there. I love Arcia, but even I would not put an OF of him, Sano, and either DanSan or Rosario out there. Not with the SO rate of Twins pitchers! As for trading Hicks, I personally think the logical thing to do would have been trade Plouffe, have Hicks for insurance on the OF. If as it appears Buxton is a question mark that would have made sense. The Twins needed a catcher. So someone was going to have to go. The choice to trade Hicks, instead of Plouffe, smells more like Ryan getting rid of a player the orginisation was frustrated with, than by trading from a common sense non prejudiced position. Hicks drove them crazy for two years, and that never bodes well in Twins Territory.

[Vanimal46]

 

I do think we'll see that on occasion, but won't be plan a out of camp.

Hopefully that's on a day where Gibson is scheduled to start, and the sinker is sharp. 

[h2oface]

Without Buxton in center, the outfield is a total mess. Arcia and Park can be a left right platoon at DH, at least to start the season, giving Park a better opportunity to adjust, and Aricia a better chance for success. This is a total mess, with lots of hope for it to all fall in place. Without Buxton coming through, it is a massive mess.

[Seth Stohs]

 

TR has said that he sees Rosario as a natural CF. Maybe he'll start there before Buxton's ready?

 

No question he can play the position well... But obviously that makes him better in the corner and with Buxton in CF, that's elite.

[drjim]

Is the lack of confidence amongst the fans, or the FO? If it was me, he would start, if for no other reason that they painted themselves into a corner with the "Sano Experiment"! They need coverage out there. I love Arcia, but even I would not put an OF of him, Sano, and either DanSan or Rosario out there. Not with the SO rate of Twins pitchers! As for trading Hicks, I personally think the logical thing to do would have been trade Plouffe, have Hicks for insurance on the OF. If as it appears Buxton is a question mark that would have made sense. The Twins needed a catcher. So someone was going to have to go. The choice to trade Hicks, instead of Plouffe, smells more like Ryan getting rid of a player the orginisation was frustrated with, than by trading from a common sense non prejudiced position. Hicks drove them crazy for two years, and that never bodes well in Twins Territory.

It's the fans. Twins FO is planning on rolling with him, even if they are (wisely) downplaying it in the offseason.

[birddog]

 

I could take fly balls in batting practice.  Doesn't make me a big league OF any more than it does Sano.  The guy has a chance to be a once in a generation type of talent with the stick in his hands.  Why take the chance of screwing with his offensive confidence by moving him from a position where he's played over 90% of his minor league games to a position he's never played before?  Move Plouffe to OF and let the perceived increase in versatility help improve his trade value for if / when we decide to move him. 

 

If Plouffe is not traded, move Mauer to the OF. 

[Thrylos]

Speaking of Arcia and disasters, here is a comparison of 2015 MLB numbers:

 

Torii Hunter: .240/.293/.409, 89 OPS+ ; belongs to the Hall of Fame

Shane Robinson: .250/.299/.322, 70 OPS+ : Solid player
Byron Buxton: .209..250/.326, 55 OPS+ ; best thing since sliced bread.
Oswaldo Arcia: .276/.338/.379, 96 OPS+ ; disaster, let's throw him to the Lions (not the Detroit ones)

 

Arcia had nothing to prove in AAA and played like it.  Kinda hard to see people who perform worse than you (few names up there, plus Suzuki, plus a bunch of pitchers) getting longer leashes at the mlb-level, especially when the team is supposedly competing.  What Arcia did in Rochester does not matter.  He should have not been there in the first place.

 

I will start believer the Sano to the Outfield hoopla, if Plouffe is still with the team by Spring Training reporting time.  Before that, I take it as a Public Service Announcement.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Thrylos

[tobi0040]

Thrylos,

 

I too still think we are trading Plouffe. I think the back up trade is lined up, but the return is not good. But it will happen before Sano and Arica are in the OF

 

To the Arcia comment, the question is long term, does his bat make up for his glove? If you take 160 games across his defensive WAR thus far he loses you 3 games a year on defense. I think the Twins think the other options (buxton, Rosario, Kepler, etc) will eventually be better overall players.

[Thrylos]

 

Thrylos,

I too still think we are trading Plouffe. I think the back up trade is lined up, but the return is not good. But it will happen before Sano and Arica are in the OF

To the Arcia comment, the question is long term, does his bat make up for his glove? If you take 160 games across his defensive WAR thus far he loses you 3 games a year on defense. I think the Twins think the other options (buxton, Rosario, Kepler, etc) will eventually be better overall players.

 

Arcia is 24.  I think that there is plenty of room for improvement with the glove, if the Twins stick with him in one position.  He already is better than players like Willingham/Parmelee/Young et al. who have been trotted out there.  Plouffe was horrible with the glove.  He improved in a couple years.  Arcia deserves that chance.  And a set position, being left or right.  Give him a position and let him play there.  

 

Without Arcia this team will get neutralized by RHPs, especially hard throwing ones, exactly the type that Arcia has been feeding off most of his career.  

[drjim]

 

Speaking of Arcia and disasters, here is a comparison of 2015 MLB numbers:

 

Torii Hunter: .240/.293/.409, 89 OPS+ ; belongs to the Hall of Fame

Shane Robinson: .250/.299/.322, 70 OPS+ : Solid player
Byron Buxton: .209..250/.326, 55 OPS+ ; best thing since sliced bread.
Oswaldo Arcia: .276/.338/.379, 96 OPS+ ; disaster, let's throw him to the Lions (not the Detroit ones)

 

Arcia had nothing to prove in AAA and played like it.  Kinda hard to see people who perform worse than you (few names up there, plus Suzuki, plus a bunch of pitchers) getting longer leashes at the mlb-level, especially when the team is supposedly competing.  What Arcia did in Rochester does not matter.  He should have not been there in the first place.

 

I will start believer the Sano to the Outfield hoopla, if Plouffe is still with the team by Spring Training reporting time.  Before that, I take it as a Public Service Announcement.

 

So, using rate stats over wildly varied sample sizes of plate appearances again.

 

Arcia didn't get demoted to AAA for giggles, he was hurt (per usual) and was ticketed for a brief rehab that, based on his performance, needed to be extended. Unfortunately it was the whole year. Those are incredibly lame excuses being offered on his behalf.

[Thrylos]

 

So, using rate stats over wildly varied sample sizes of plate appearances again.

 

Sure.  The PAs were organization/manager choice.  He worked with what was given to him. 

[drjim]

 

Sure.  The PAs were organization/manager choice.  He worked with what was given to him. 

 

Not really, he got the PAs he deserved on merit.

 

I really like Arcia, want him to do well and think he could contribute mightily, but his season was a self-inflicted train wreck.

[alarp33]

 

So, using rate stats over wildly varied sample sizes of plate appearances again.

 

Arcia didn't get demoted to AAA for giggles, he was hurt (per usual) and was ticketed for a brief rehab that, based on his performance, needed to be extended. Unfortunately it was the whole year. Those are incredibly lame excuses being offered on his behalf.

 

In one sentence you talk about sample size, in the following paragraph you say Arcia deserved to stay at AAA cuz he didn't hit in the 5-7 game rehab sample.  

[drjim]

In one sentence you talk about sample size, in the following paragraph you say Arcia deserved to stay at AAA cuz he didn't hit in the 5-7 game rehab sample.

Longer than that. And I suspect it was more than numbers that kept him down.

[dxpavelka]

 

Sano has never been a guy who lacked confidence. He has professional at bats and isn't somebody prone to bouts of self-doubt (like a Hicks for instance). Even when he isn't hitting the ball, he goes up there and takes quality at bats. I have no worries that he is some head case who will fall apart because he's around grass instead of dirt.

 

Also, name me a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good. Even Knoblauch continued to hit when he became unable to throw to first. Guys regularly take their hitting woes out to the field but I can't remember seeing it go the other way around. If Sano doesn't hit this year it won't be because he's in the OF, it will be because pitchers are figuring out how to attack him.

 

That said, I agree that Plouffe should also get some time in the outfield and I imagine the Twins will do some of that in spring training. He played 31 games out there in the majors in 2011 and 2012 and while I don't remember him being good, the stats and memory don't find anything to awful. 

Maybe the reason you can't name a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good was because if both were suffering he didn't last long in the bigs.  The impact doesn't have to be that dramatic either.  Can be as simple as a delay in his offensive progress.  A month, half a season or even a year or more.  Can be the difference between 50 home runs and 35 or between 35 home runs and 25.  Bottom line is with his offensive potential I want to make him as comfortable as possible.  Playing a new position does NOT lend itself to that.  No need to take any chances with this guy. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Maybe the reason you can't name a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good was because if both were suffering he didn't last long in the bigs.  The impact doesn't have to be that dramatic either.  Can be as simple as a delay in his offensive progress.  A month, half a season or even a year or more.  Can be the difference between 50 home runs and 35 or between 35 home runs and 25.  Bottom line is with his offensive potential I want to make him as comfortable as possible.  Playing a new position does NOT lend itself to that.  No need to take any chances with this guy. 

 

But it's not on me to name an example, it's on the person claiming that struggling in the field will effect a player's hitting to provide evidence to support their claims. My whole point is there is no evidence for the claim, be it statistical or anecdotal. The fact that you can't come up with one example is evident that there is really nothing to back up this idea. There's a difference between a fact-based argument and "Well I think that this will happen." Evidence is what turns an opinion into a rational argument - and it's missing in this case.

 

And throwing made up numbers about HRs dropping isn't evidence, it's just a fairy tale. Baseball teams shouldn't be run by the Brothers Grimm.

[gocgo]

 

Arcia once again appears to be the forgotten man here. I know he's out of options and shouldn't win a job because of that, but he can flat out hit. His defense is suspect at best, but he was hitting .276 when he was sent down last year and he is capable of approaching .300 with good power if he doesn't try to crush every pitch. I like his intensity and it appears he wants to be a leader. Terrible attitude in the minors last year, but I expect him to grow up a lot this year and live up to his talent. If Buxton doesn't stick I hope to see Rosario in CF and Sano and Arcia in the corners.

 

Twins fans have to be excited about the OF possibilities to start the season, but when Buxton and Kepler arrive for good, hopefully we can lock them in for a decade. I, too, am hoping ABW or Palka can produce their minor league numbers in the bigs. Can't wait for the season to start as I see us scoring a lot of runs.

"Suspect at best"...yeah, it was bad.

 

"he is capable of approaching .300 with good power if he doesn't try to crush every pitch"...agree, but I think the issue was that he still tried to crush every pitch even when they tried to change that approach.  Not listening to your boss tends to lead to being forgotten at promotion time.

[Major League Ready]

 

That AA roster looks suspect........

 

I think Buxton is in AAA to start, with Santana in CF to start. Molitor really seems to love him. By the middle of the year, Sano will be at 3B, Buxton in CF, and Kepler in RF. And the Twins will be 5 games under, and finish 2 games over .500.

What Mike said ...

[DocBauer]

TR has said that he sees Rosario as a natural CF. Maybe he'll start there before Buxton's ready?

TR has said that he sees Rosario as a natural CF. Maybe he'll start there before Buxton's ready?

Blast me if you think I'm wrong...and you will...but Rosario, the former milb CF seemed to play a very nice CF in his limited time there in 2015 for the Twins. Given an opportunity to play there regularly, he might just look pretty comfy there. But there is absolutely, positively NO DOUBT that CF is better defensively on a daily basis with Buxton in CF. In fact, with all the chagrin in regard to Sano and/or Arcia in one corner of the OF, remember that both jacks are decent athletes with strong arms to go along with the defensive aces of Rosario and Buxton. And the Twins aren't stupid. Come on now! They have certain expectations for next season.

 

Here are things I think I know:

 

1) Unless he blows ST, Buxton is the Twins CF. And not just because of his great defense. (He and Rosario cover 3/4 of the OF) And not just on potential. He could be an asset hitting .225 with defense, speed and flashes of power. But don't forget just how talented he is, or how well he hit in his second go round.

 

2) I was tickled to Elmo giggles when the Twins re-signed Allen. This is a potential story that is just SOOO good. Top talent with 4-5 tool ability gets cut loose and comes home to find himself once again with his parent club before he is too old to lament "what could have been". I believe this could be a perfect storm to find an outstanding 4th OF, but he won't make the club immediately. No room, for one thing. I suppose, if the Twins really think Buxton needs to begin the season in AAA, he has a shot...but it would seem that Sweeney, Mastroianni or Santana would be the better short term answer.

 

3) Starter or more probable reserve, Arcia is not done. He will rock it when in the lineup...with inconsistent bouts I'm afraid. But if the stars align just right, and his playing time, DH or OF, becomes consistent, people will quickly remember why he excited them, and feel a bit embarrassed they doubted him.

 

4) Sano has the ability to play the OF OK. He has the ability to develop in to a better than OK OF. He won't have to. It's a waste. With all due respect to Plouffe, by the break if not way before, he will be gone to make room for Sano at 3B and someone else in the OF. I understand TR trying to put the best team on the field...but this just makes too much sense not to happen. (Any Mauer or Park situation could make this moot, of course)

 

5) We haven't heard the last of Vargas.

 

6) A corner OF spot, probably RF, is just waiting for Kepler. The wait won't be long.

Edited January 22, 2016 by DocBauer

[dxpavelka]

 

But it's not on me to name an example, it's on the person claiming that struggling in the field will effect a player's hitting to provide evidence to support their claims. My whole point is there is no evidence for the claim, be it statistical or anecdotal. The fact that you can't come up with one example is evident that there is really nothing to back up this idea. There's a difference between a fact-based argument and "Well I think that this will happen." Evidence is what turns an opinion into a rational argument - and it's missing in this case.

 

And throwing made up numbers about HRs dropping isn't evidence, it's just a fairy tale. Baseball teams shouldn't be run by the Brothers Grimm.

 

You need to look no farther than our own backyard for a solid example of a guy who never blossomed as a hitter until he settled into a defensive position he felt comfortable with-That being Michael Cuddyer who bounce around defensively and bounced out to the infield a lot before he settled on a single defensive position in 2006.  If you want more ask any big league manager, scout or veteran player.  You'll get similar feedback.  Am I saying it is absolutely going to happen.  No.  What I am saying is  that we need to put this guy in the best frame of mind to be a great hitter.  Do we really want to take a chance of having to look back at some point in the future and saying we didn't to that?

[ThejacKmp]

 

You need to look no farther than our own backyard for a solid example of a guy who never blossomed as a hitter until he settled into a defensive position he felt comfortable with-That being Michael Cuddyer who bounce around defensively and bounced out to the infield a lot before he settled on a single defensive position in 2006.  If you want more ask any big league manager, scout or veteran player.  You'll get similar feedback.  Am I saying it is absolutely going to happen.  No.  What I am saying is  that we need to put this guy in the best frame of mind to be a great hitter.  Do we really want to take a chance of having to look back at some point in the future and saying we didn't to that?

 

(1) Michael Cuddyer is a terrible example because he had arguably his greatest stretch as a Twin in 2009 when Morneau went down and he switched to a new position, 1B, for the remainder of the season. Rather than being overmatched by his new position, he raked (OBP as 1B 1.052; as RF .817) and helped drag that Twins team back to the playoffs. He got MVP votes out of it. Clearly position doesn’t matter to Michael Cuddyer, who is comfortable playing wherever.

(2) But let’s pretend that’s not the same because it’s when he was an old vet. So let’s go look at Cuddy as a youngster.  Michael Cuddyer's OPS+ while playing mostly third from 2001 to 2005 was about 100 making him a pretty solid player - he didn't go into the tank because he played third. A more likely explanation for him hitting better in 2006 was that he turned 27 and entered his prime.

 

(3) And let’s take an even closer look at Cuddy’s splits from that pre-RF time (2002 to 2005). In every year but one he hit significantly better when playing 3B than when playing corner OF.  And that one season doesn’t weight it down - in aggregate he hit much better at 3B than as a corner OF.
 
(4) And Cuddy is a terrible example for this anyways.  Cuddyer played mostly 2B and 3B with the Twins in the minors, with less than 100 games in the OF. So he was moved to a position he was less comfortable with (like Sano may be asked to do) and then he hit better. A better example would be to find a player who played well at his natural position, was asked to move somewhere else where he sucked, and then moved back to his natural position and was great.  The anti-Danny Santana really.

 

(5) Did you ask a bunch of major leaguers and scouts? What is this feedback? How do you know so many managers and players? Because otherwise it’s just you making that claim and that doesn’t pass muster. That whole last bit sounds like one of those terrible columns full of platitudes and clichés that we all grew up reading in the Pioneer Press or Star Tribune.

 

The point is that there is no evidence to show that a player’s performance in the field has huge effects on his hitting. As long as Sano is playing everyday he’ll be fine – being able to play OF makes that more likely and is thus a good thing.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

  Do we really want to take a chance of having to look back at some point in the future and saying we didn't to that?

 

As far as your last question goes, should we forbid him from changing his walk-up-to-the-plate music or from changing his sock color? Because those have an equal chance of screwing up his swing. If he doesn't hit well it won't be because of where he plays or what deodorant he uses or if he starts dating Jessica Simpson. It will be because the league figures something out about how to attack him.

[tobi0040]

If Buxton makes this team, Arcia is a no brainer 4th OF (Sano and Rosario in corners).

 

Buxton is going to play every day, but you have Rosario, Santana, and Escobar that could play CF.

 

Arcia should get 30 games in the OF if everyone is healthy all year. 20 at 1b and 30 at DH. Then he is the best bench bat I can remember half the time.