Article: Glen Quagmire: The Closer Conundrum

[Nick Nelson]

I know what you're wondering. Did I decide to start writing this article about Glen Perkins and the Minnesota Twins' closer situation solely so I could make the punny Family Guy reference you see in the headline above?

 

The answer: yes. However, it also happens to be a pertinent topic as we inch toward spring training, so read on. Giggity.To call the ninth inning situation a "closer conundrum" isn't really accurate. The job belongs to Perkins, as it should. The lefty has made three straight All-Star teams, and has established a reputation as one of the league's best.

 

Multiple times this offseason, Paul Molitor has confirmed that Perkins would be returning to the role. The fact that the manager would even need to address it speaks to the tumult that Perkins faced in the second half last year. After fatigue had worn him down late in the 2014 season, his body broke down once again, and this time at a crucial juncture.

 

When Blair Walsh hooked a chip shot left to cost the Vikings a playoff win two Sundays ago, Perkins tweeted out a message of commiseration:

 

 

Granted, no blown save in Perk's career could measure up to the crushing devastation of Walsh's shank, but the 32-year-old hurler can certainly relate. So accustomed to getting the job done, his arm started to fail him as he pitched in meaningful late-season games for the first time. Perkins did his best to battle through, receiving cortisone shots in his neck and back, but he floundered. In August and September opposing hitters had an OPS above 1.000 against him.

 

Time and time again, he watched hard fought games slip away at the very end, while he stood in disbelief on the hill.

 

Alas, that is now in the past, and Perkins has had several months to heal and rest up. La Velle E. Neal III mentioned in a recent column that the southpaw spent six weeks in Ft. Myers working out daily during the offseason. No surprise there. Perkins likes to goof around on Twitter, and he's generally one of the most relaxed guys in the clubhouse, but he is competitive as hell and takes a lot of pride in his game. He's going to come back with some fire.

 

If things should go the wrong way, how long is his leash? It's an interesting question, given the effectiveness displayed by Kevin Jepsen while filling in at times last year. At the end of the season, with both pitchers ostensibly healthy, it was Jepsen getting the save chances. He got the job done, too, converting 10 of 11.

 

In La Velle's article, Molitor lamented the communication issues that arose while trying to navigate the situation. It's an unenviable spot for a rookie manager.

 

He's surely hoping that he won't be thrust right back into it in a couple of months. Considering the way Perkins bounced back from his September swoon in 2014, converting 18 straight saves to open the following campaign, we can have confidence that he'll be back to form come April.

 

But even if he is, one quandary remains. Perkins has worn down late in consecutive seasons and it's hard to believe his heavy usage didn't play a part. This especially rings true for last year, when the Twins essentially needed him in every close game for lack of adequate alternatives. In May, when Minnesota won 20 games, Perkins pitched 15 times – basically every other day.

 

He came through, converting 13 saves while the Twins went 14-1 in those contests, but you have to wonder if it cost him down the stretch.

 

Perkins might have worked harder this offseason on conditioning himself for the long grind, but he turns 33 in March. Managing the closer's workload will need to be a prioritized concern for Molitor in his second year at the helm.

 

Fortunately, the presence of Jepsen will make that easier. He's a viable backup and sub in the ninth inning, and his acquisition last July will go down as one of Terry Ryan's best in-season pick-ups if the righty picks up where he left off. The fact that Jepsen looked so damn good after coming over last year is the only reason Ryan's inaction this winter has been remotely understandable.

 

And, well, it still really isn't. Because once you go beyond Perkins and Jepsen, you've got Casey Fien, Trevor May, and a whole lot of question marks. In a best case scenario, this could become a pretty effective and reliable unit, but in anything less than that, the Twins are going to be turning to guys that don't necessarily merit a lot of trust. Either that or once again leaning on Perkins way too hard.

 

We've already seen the end of that story.

 

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[GACbaseball]

It's 2016, can we get rid of the traditional closer role?

 

Jensen and Perkins own the 8th and 9th innings. Try to match them up to give us the best chance to win

[theBOMisthebomb]

What's wrong with having dual closers? Giving Perk some help by having Jepsen take save opportunities sounds prudent given Perk's recent 2nd half collapses.

[Blackjack]

Good article!!! Hopefully several of the other young relievers step up to fill in after Perkins, Jepson, Fien, and May. If so, the relief core could be pretty darn good!!!

 

When I read La Velle's article about Perkins whining I was thinking 'the big baby'. He's getting paid a lot of money to be the closer, wasn't getting it done, Molitor was doing what was best for the team, trying to win games. Perkins should have understood that.

 

[Kwak]

Could the Twins have multiple closers? Of course--but that isn't part of the Twins' way.  For many years the Twins have operated with a defined closer, 8th inning guy, 7th inning guy, LOOGY, long-man, etc.  Will they change that philosophy?  I doubt it.  They are more likely to simply reassign personnel in each role that to craft a new bullpen philosophy.

 

Question marks.  As far as I'm concerned signing veteran free-agent relief-pitchers doesn't eliminate question marks--they simply make it easier to identify the guilty parties for failure.  The Twins have many candidates for the bullpen (plenty of TD threads on that!) it's time to start using them.  The 83-win season eliminated the losing streak and the pressure to stop the bleeding.  Now is the window to complete the development and transformation of the Active Roster to one of a consistent winner--and that requires some risk-taking. Continue the internal promotions to build the consistent winner.

[Mike Sixel]

It will be May by the end of the year. 

[Wyorev]

Yes. I would also hope for a more creative use of a bullpen.

I had to go read LaVelle's article. I certainly did not consider Perkins to be whining. He was, however, articulating his frustration with honesty. I would be amazed if Molitor thought he was whining

Amazed.

[Kwak]

 

Yes. I would also hope for a more creative use of a bullpen.
I had to go read LaVelle's article. I certainly did not consider Perkins to be whining. He was, however, articulating his frustration with honesty. I would be amazed if Molitor thought he was whining
Amazed.

Honesty and Twins PR?  Oil meet water.

[Ben Noble]

As upset as I initially was with May's move to the 'pen, I've started to come around a little bit. Now if the Twins can be flexible with how they use Perkins, Jepsen and May, I might be sold. I realize that's a big 'if,' though...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Could the Twins have multiple closers? Of course--but that isn't part of the Twins' way.  For many years the Twins have operated with a defined closer, 8th inning guy, 7th inning guy, LOOGY, long-man, etc.  Will they change that philosophy?  I doubt it.  They are more likely to simply reassign personnel in each role that to craft a new bullpen philosophy.

 

Question marks.  As far as I'm concerned signing veteran free-agent relief-pitchers doesn't eliminate question marks--they simply make it easier to identify the guilty parties for failure.  The Twins have many candidates for the bullpen (plenty of TD threads on that!) it's time to start using them.  The 83-win season eliminated the losing streak and the pressure to stop the bleeding.  Now is the window to complete the development and transformation of the Active Roster to one of a consistent winner--and that requires some risk-taking. Continue the internal promotions to build the consistent winner.

 

To be fair, no Major League team does this. It's not a Twins Way thing, it's a baseball thing. 

 

That will likely change in the next few years and I wouldn't be completely surprised if the Twins were the team that did it - you need a right hander and left hander with closing experience with the team. There can't be that many teams besides the Twins that have that.

 

We also need to acknowledge that there is something to people having a defined role. We've all worked jobs where there is a comfort knowing what your role is, not being surprised by things. I don't think it needs to be paramount and would love to see the restrictions loosened but it's not totally insane. And again, I could see the Twins being the ones to change it - with a righty and a lefty its not too much of a stretch to say "you two have the 8th and 9th in some order" and have that be defined enough. Molitor seems like a guy who could do that and Jepsen would likely be on board - convincing Perkins would be the key and he is a bit of a whiner but there is a shot.

[Platoon]

He broke down the last two years, and is 33. Do I see a trend here? Aside from that, there appears only two ways this will work. He is either the closer, or injured. He doesn't seem the type to quietly accept a "demotion" to the 7th or 8th inning guy. Plus he always has seemed to struggle in non close situations, even when he is at his best. It's almost like he loses motivation or concentration? His history is not to go quietly into the night?

[DocBauer]

I didn't read the article, but I did read Nick's. I agree the job should be Perk's, and with good, proven, reason. He's 33 now, and his head and body are used to a certain type of usage. I think he can still be very successful for a few more years. But much like Dozier perhaps being overused and needing a couple days off the first half of the year, there is one reason Jepsen can't come in to face a RH 9th inning lineup when Perk has pitched two days in a row, or 2 out of 3, etc.

 

While Nick isn't going in depth on the bullpen here, focusing more on the closers role itself, is it just me, or does it seem kind of ridiculous that a month before pitchers and catchers report we are STILL concerned with the bullpen?

 

 

Come on Terry...forget the prospects of talented prospects for a moment and make a move. There are still some decent, functional FA available. Build the strength.

 

Giggity.

[BD57]

 

Could the Twins have multiple closers? Of course--but that isn't part of the Twins' way.  For many years the Twins have operated with a defined closer, 8th inning guy, 7th inning guy, LOOGY, long-man, etc.  Will they change that philosophy?  I doubt it.  They are more likely to simply reassign personnel in each role that to craft a new bullpen philosophy.

 

 

 

Well, to be fair, that's the way most teams operate, if they have a guy who is a dependable closer - the ones that "close by committee" tend to do so because they don't have any one guy who they can count on.

 

With that said, having two guys who are capable might affect your evaluation of whether Perkins or Jepsen is "available" on a particular day.  What you need to take full advantage of having two guys capable of closing is at least two guys capable of pitching the eighth inning.  

 

Here's the thing, though - - having two guys capable of closing, do you now become reluctant to pitch both of them in the same game, similar to the "pinch hitting with your second catcher" thing Gardy was loathe to do?   Think about it - if the goal is to spread out the work, then the preferred practice would be to avoid pitching them both in the same game because doing so means it's been "the same number of days since they pitched" for both of them until you spread them out again.   Sure, you can ignore that for a couple of days in important games, but at some point in time, that thought starts lighting up like a neon sign . . . . 

 

Maybe you let matchups determine it - if both are available, who's coming up in the 9th for the other side & which guy has a better record against those guys? 

[Nick Nelson]

 

To be fair, no Major League team does this. It's not a Twins Way thing, it's a baseball thing. 

 

That will likely change in the next few years and I wouldn't be completely surprised if the Twins were the team that did it - you need a right hander and left hander with closing experience with the team. There can't be that many teams besides the Twins that have that.

To add to this, I wouldn't be surprised if the changing nature of the market helps facilitate a change in this regard. It used to be that if you were a reliever without saves on your stat sheet, the best pay-day you could hope for as a free agent paled in comparison to even the non-elite tier of ninth inning men.

 

Now, with relievers becoming more highly valued in general, and setup men scoring deals like the ones Darren O'Day and Tony Sipp got this offseason, a guy might not grumble so much about his role. Especially someone like Perkins who has two years left on his deal.

[Thrylos]

This needs to be highlighted:

 

“There was never a conversation about, ‘This is what we’re going to do,’ ” Perkins said. “It was, ‘Everyone is going to be prepared to throw at whatever point.’

“For me, coming back from being hurt and not pitching to not having a routine, not having a role that was solidified, it was tough on me.”

 

It just bugs me that: a. he does not seem to get the fact that his performance was a major reason the Twins did not make the post-season last season, b. even though he sucked and lost his closer role, he did not accept it and acted like he did not have a role apparently and c. he whines about it, instead of taking accountability about the horrible second half he had, two years in a row...

 

And if your closer (or your left had set up guy) melts down in a 93 L team, does not matter as much as if he melts down in a competing team.

 

Not sure what the Twins think, but Perkins is a liability for a contender....

[Mike Sixel]

How is that whining? He is stating a fact. People are not computers, they like routine, they crave routine, they crave certainty. He was not comfortable with how things went, that's merely reporting how he felt, not whining.

[Boom Boom]

How is that whining? He is stating a fact. People are not computers, they like routine, they crave routine, they crave certainty. He was not comfortable with how things went, that's merely reporting how he felt, not whining.

Closers and to a lesser extent LOOGYs are the only relievers that get a routine.

 

Think about Trevor May and what his role will be out of the bullpen. He's going to have to start the 7th sometimes, or come in to face a big right-handed hitter, or come in during the middle of an inning to put out a fire. He might even get a spot start or two. In other words, he's got to be ready to pitch whenever.

 

Hearing Perk say that he was uncomfortable outside of his normal role when he pitched himself out of it... yeah, it comes off a little whiny.

[Vanimal46]

I know it's been a while since the Twins were in playoff contention, but that seems pretty standard that it's all hands on deck in the bullpen for the final stretch of the season. The final 3 outs in the 9th inning may not be the most crucial outs in a particular ball game. Perkins is still the most reliable arm in the bullpen, and if the Twins desperately need to get out of a jam in the 7th or 8th inning, they shouldn't hesitate to give him the ball. 

As far as Perkins' quote in the Star Tribune, would I have liked to see a little more humility? Of course. But I'm sure both Perkins and Molitor will learn from last year's mistakes. 

[tobi0040]

 

It's 2016, can we get rid of the traditional closer role?

Jensen and Perkins own the 8th and 9th innings. Try to match them up to give us the best chance to win

 

Bill James has been writing about this since the late 80's. 

 

Evidence shows that the only thing that has changed with the closer role is the amount of money paid to the "closers". The amount of blown leads has remained about constant. 

 

James showed that it is a better idea to use your best reliever in a 7th or 8th inning tie than a 9th inning game where you are up two or three runs.  Also, they should be able to pitch more than one inning.

 

Saving your closer for the 9th also takes away the righty-righty and lefty-lefty matchups away from your best reliever.  They get whoever happens to be coming up in the 9th.  What happens if you have 2-3 righties in the 9th and 2-3 lefties in the 8th?

[TheLeviathan]

Relief pitchers are some of the most rigid and fragile employees in the world is what I've learned from the last few days.

 

I understand having a role helps you prepare, but these roles aren't all that radically different.  It'd be nice to start breaking this mentality in the minors so that a bullpen can be maximized to the fullest.

[tobi0040]

 

Relief pitchers are some of the most rigid and fragile employees in the world is what I've learned from the last few days.

 

I understand having a role helps you prepare, but these roles aren't all that radically different.  It'd be nice to start breaking this mentality in the minors so that a bullpen can be maximized to the fullest.

 

I completely agree. 

 

But teams have long overpaid "closers" and underpaid the set up guys with similar numbers.   As well as incented this behavior further by tying bonuses to "saves" and "games ended"

 

On Glen's last contract, he received a 100k bonus for this 40th, 45th, and 50th game that he finished (each).  Then had 150k kickers at 55 and 60.  And his base salary the next year went up by half of the bonuses he earned in 2013.  So a guy like that has every reason to keep a grip on the closer role.

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24072466/minnesota-twins-glen-perkins-keeps-adding-bonuses

 

 

[Willihammer]

Kinda seems like Perk blames Molitor for his ineffectiveness in the 2nd half. Not, oh I dunno, the declining velo or his bum neck or back.

 

I wonder what May or Jepsen's comments would be on Molitor's decision to open up the 9th inning to other players.

 

Disappointed that Molitor has bent over. I really hoped he would be the guy to break the mold but alas, he seems to be taking the Gardy path of least resistance and veteran coddling.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Willihammer

[Vanimal46]

 

Kinda seems like Perk blames Molitor for his ineffectiveness in the 2nd half. Not, oh I dunno, the declining velo or his bum neck or back.

 

I wonder what May or Jepsen's comments would be on Molitor's decision to open up the 9th inning to other players.

 

Disappointed that Molitor has bent over. I really hoped he would be the guy to break the mold but alas, he seems to be taking the Gardy path of least resistance and veteran coddling.

Yeah Perkins' quote in the article is pretty damning, and I wonder if that's how Lavelle felt when he was interviewing him. I don't think there would be any backlash on Perkins if he showed some humility and said I understand why my role changed. I was hurt, ineffective, etc. But I'm ready to come back and earn my role again...

I certainly hope Molitor doesn't take the Gardy path and coddle the veterans. Maybe that resulted in the loss of communication - Gardy seems like the guy that would call in Perkins for a one on one meeting to discuss his role, etc. And Molitor just assumed hey we're in the playoff chase, all hands on deck.  

[Shane Wahl]

I am scared about real regression from Jepsen this year, not Perkins.

That said, assume Jepsen is good again. This doesn't have to be a "dual closer" situation at all, but it could just mean spelling Perkins once a month, even. I think Perkins through 32 innings through June last year. How many innings were thrown in 3-run leads OR in blowouts just to "get work in" I wonder? Eliminate those and I bet he has 25/25 innings for the first half and second half.

[HitInAPinch]

I think the easy answer is to cut back on the "cheap" saves:

 

"He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning."

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, but it seemed like Perkins had more than a few of those.

Jepsen was pretty good picking up the slack at the end of last year and I'm not worried about any regression.  Let him take on the extra load.

[h2oface]

The best news I read here is that Perkins spent 6 weeks in Fort Meyers and actually WORKED OUT! I hope Dozier spent some time doing the same. A lot of time. Mauer too. And I don't mean kind of. I hope they have all changed their lifestyles a bit and take it seriously that they haven't been able to last a whole season two years in a row. I don't think Perkins was over worked at all. I think that is his job. The key is to develop a lifestyle that keeps your body ready and develops endurance, especially as you age. Mauer and Dozier and Perkins were not doing that, and it was telling in the second half of the season. Sure, there are the few fatties that one could site, but I wonder how good they could have been/be if they cared about their body as part of the million dollar contracts.

[h2oface]

 

It will be May by the end of the year. 

 

.....or Meyer. Wicked fastball and slider shutting down the opposition, with May and Berrios in the rotation. A guy can dream, right?

[Dantes929]

I look at Perkins, May, Jepsen and :Fien and am pretty happy with the top 4 in the pen.   Stands to reason that the next 4 will not be quite as good but that doesn't mean putting in any of Meyer, Nolasco, Acter, Tomkin, Berrios, etc. is like putting it on a tee.    They, along with the starters, just need to get it to the 7th inning with a chance to win.   With the addition of May and Jepsen this will probably be the best bullpen the Twins have had since 2010.   Not saying it wouldn't be nice to have another shut down guy but the bottom spots filled by Nolasco and apprentices is not soo out of the ordinary.     No player becomes a proven player without first being an unproven rookie.

[Oxtung]

Looking at the leverage index from last years relievers the first two were pretty obvious; Perkins and Jepsen who are good though not great. The next two were Boyer and Thompson. That is unacceptable. One will be replaced by May which will be fine but who picks up those lefty innings? What happens when Perkins wears down or Jepsen returns to his pumpkin ways or May is needed in the rotation? At this point this bullpen is neither strong nor deep. There really needed to be another acquisition this winter.

[jay]

And again, I could see the Twins being the ones to change it - with a righty and a lefty its not too much of a stretch to say "you two have the 8th and 9th in some order" and have that be defined enough.

Yes, please. Defined enough describes it perfectly.