Article: Positioning The Twins Lineup For Success

[Ted Schwerzler]

Going into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins offense was set for the most part. With youths on the way, some already inserted, and more internal contributions expected, making a big splash there wasn't necessarily needed. Terry Ryan surprised baseball when he inked Byung Ho Park and thus far has done the same in sticking to his guns and not dealing Trevor Plouffe.That brings us to where we are now. Just a few months from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, the Twins offense shouldn't have many unexpected surprises left. Although other parts of the 25-man roster could use some tweaking, the order should begin to take shape. With that said, here's how it can best set up for success, and some rough projections of what might play out.

 

1. Byron Buxton CF

 

Calling Buxton's debut offensively a disappointment would be an understatement. Baseball's top prospect slashed just .209/.250/.326 in his first 46 big league games. After a brief stint at Triple-A (in which he hit in all 13 games and compiled a .400 avg) Buxton returned to the Twins. Over his final nine games, Buxton hit .318/.348/.682 with four extra base hits. It's a small sample size, but something the Twins hope sparks an offseason of preparing for big league production in 2016. I don't see Buxton having the year one-year two-year splits that Mike Trout did, but he should be significantly better in the year ahead.

 

Proj: .277/.348/.440 10 HR 25 2B 8 3B 60 RBI 26 SB

 

2. Brian Dozier 2B

 

For the first time in his career, Dozier was named to the All-Star Game. Although he looked like an MVP candidate the first half, he faded significantly down the stretch for the second year in a row. Finishing with a worse average and on base percentage than 2014, Dozier's strikeout totals increased substantially. Dozier actually has worse numbers in the two hole, but profiles as a better fit there. With Buxton on base often ahead of him, his power should play to benefit the Twins more in this role. If he can unlock the secret to a complete season, 2016 should be Dozier's best season yet.

 

Proj: .243/.330/.412 22 HR 34 2B 3 3B 70 RBI 15 SB

 

3. Byung Ho Park DH

 

In the three hole, I really am torn as to whether it's Park or Miguel Sano that makes more sense. Both are going to strike out a healthy (or maybe unhealthy) amount, but Sano has already had his welcome tour in the big leagues. Regardless, rather than move Sano from the cleanup role he's comfortable in, Park gets the nod here. I'm not as concerned about his transition to the big leagues as some may be, and his power will settle in just fine. If the Twins in fact are getting a better and more powerful Jung Ho Kang, this will be a steal and one heck of a force in the lineup.

 

Proj: .262/.310/.489 24 HR 22 2B 0 3B 88 RBI

 

4. Miguel Sano RF

 

Just typing Sano in right field seems wrong, but here we are. In a worst case scenario, the Twins are going to have an atrocity (think worse than Josh Willingham) in right field, on the flip side though, it could work. What Minnesota can't afford, is that the position shift takes away from Sano's hitting approach. He's still going to strike out a ton, but I'd hope this offseason and spring is focused on developing a more honed in approach at the plate. You can expect Sano to launch plenty of long balls this year.

 

Proj: .259/.358/.522 35 HR 28 2B 1 3B 102 RBI 4 SB

 

5. Joe Mauer 1B

 

In 2016, Mauer's resurgence could be sparked by nothing more than a drop in the lineup. It's something I recently considered here at Off The Baggy. No longer a key production cog, Mauer is afforded the ability to settle in and produce at his own pace. A professional hitter, Mauer dropping in the order could produce a season that sees him inch back towards the consistant .300 hitter he once was. Splitting up the right-handed bats, Mauer following Sano makes a lot of sense. Turning in another healthy season, expect Mauer's numbers to be on the uptick from a season ago.

 

Proj: .289/.387/.400 10 HR 33 2B 2 3B 67 RBI 2 SB

 

6. Trevor Plouffe 3B

 

While there was some reason for Plouffe to be on the trade block, the argument was always that keeping him was most beneficial to the Twins. A power hitter who has peaked later in his career, Plouffe has blossomed into one of the best third basemen in the big leagues. Hitting sixth in this Twins lineup only highlights how much talent this squad has offensively compared to recent years. Building on 2015, Plouffe rounds out the group of power hitters ahead of him.

 

Proj: .250/.319/.427 18 HR 36 2B 3 3B 77 RBI 2 SB

 

7. Eddie Rosario LF

 

Getting his first taste of the big leagues in 2015, Rosario did not disappoint. On the surface, his offensive numbers were stellar across the board. What they masked was a free swinging tendency that makes him arguably the greatest candidate for regression in the year ahead. His defense is going to play regardless, but his offensive production remains somewhat of a mystery. He needs to improve his 14.5 swinging strike percentage as well as his swinging at pitches outside of the zone at an astonishing 46% clip. He's not going to fall off a cliff, but repeating 2015 is a tough ask.

 

Proj: .255/.285/.420 12 HR 20 2B 11 3B 60 RBI 15 SB

 

8. John Ryan Murphy C

 

No doubt the Twins acquired John Ryan Murphy with the intention of making him their everyday catcher. That may not happen from the get go, but it's hard to trust Suzuki after the tough offensive season he had in 2015. Combine that with a 15% caught stealing rate (as opposed to the 32% league average), and the Twins are losing games with Suzuki behind the dish. Murphy owns a .267/.311/.374 career slash line, and is just 24-years-old. The job should be his to run with sooner rather than later.

 

Proj: .266/.308/.390 12 HR 20 2B 1 3B 58 RBI 24 CS%

 

9. Eduardo Escobar SS

 

If last season is any indication, Escobar may be the best Twins number nine hitter in recent memory. After Minnesota dabbled with the idea of bringing in Troy Tulowitzki, Escobar outslugged him and every other shortstop for the better part of the season's second half. With career high power numbers, and an above average glove at short, the Twins have found someone who can hold it down for the forseeable future.

 

Proj: .261/.311/.403 9 HR 32 2B 3 3B 45 RBI 3 SB

 

In its current construction this Twins lineup is one filled with power threats. There's also a high probability for strikeouts, so the Twins will need to manufacture runs where they can. Coming off a season in which they trailed only the Kansas City Royals in clutch hitting, Minnesota will want to rely more on consistency than timely production in the year ahead. Things are set up well for Minnesota to replicate their 2015 record. Whether they can take the next step remains the question.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 

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[jimmer]

Until we consistently have players with better OBPs than Mauer had last year (or, better yet, what your projection states: .387 OBP), Mauer should bat 2nd.  A change in the batting order won't turn on a switch and I still want the guys with the best OBPs batting in the upper half of the lineup.

Edited December 31, 2015 by jimmer

[drjim]

I would guess Buxton starts out hitting 9th too. My opening day guess:

 

Rosario

Dozier

Mauer

Sano

Park

Plouffe

Escobar

Murphy

Buxton

[TNTwinsFan]

To start the season:

 

Dozier

Escobar

Mauer

Sano

Park

Plouffe

Rosario

Murphy

Buxton

 

By July:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Plouffe

Dozier

Rosario/Kepler

Murphy

Escobar

 

If Plouffe is traded:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano (3B)

Park

Kepler/Arcia

Dozier

Rosario

Murphy

Escobar

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have an opportunity to utilize Danny Santana's versatility on the bench. Santana combined with Suzuki give the Twins coverage up the middle. The corners are more than adequately covered. The remaining two spots must go to bats that can pinch hit for Escobar and Murphy. I am hoping Arcia performs well in the spring and earns one of those spots. The other spot needs to go a guy with options that can be juggled when a 13th pitcher is needed.

 

If Plouffe stays, I don't see how Nunez is an asset on the bench. They might be able to move him through waivers with the contract he earns in arbitration. If not, they can turn to Polanco if an injury up the middle occurs.

 

Most importantly, Santana ability to play 2B, SS and CF enables them to address a bench that provided very little offense last year.

[TNTwinsFan]

To start the season:

 

Dozier

Escobar

Mauer

Sano

Park

Plouffe

Rosario

Murphy

Buxton

 

By July:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Plouffe

Dozier

Rosario/Kepler

Murphy

Escobar

 

If Plouffe is traded:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano (3B)

Park

Kepler/Arcia

Dozier

Rosario

Murphy

Escobar

[Dantes929]

Incredibly optimistic on the OBP for most guys.    Sano and Mauer were the only guys to beat .309 last year.     Now you think everyone but Rosario beats it.    Funny that I think Rosario might be one of the guys that does beat it.  As Jimmer stated above, if Mauer comes anywhere close to old form (and probably even if he doesn't) you want him batting 2nd ahead of Sano.    Last season Mauer counted for twice as many of Sano RBI as any other guy.   

[jimmer]

 

Incredibly optimistic on the OBP for most guys.    Sano and Mauer were the only guys to beat .309 last year.     Now you think everyone but Rosario beats it.    Funny that I think Rosario might be one of the guys that does beat it.  As Jimmer stated above, if Mauer comes anywhere close to old form (and probably even if he doesn't) you want him batting 2nd ahead of Sano.    Last season Mauer counted for twice as many of Sano RBI as any other guy.   

On that note, from Dave Cameron's chat today:

 

Scott: 'Is it crazy that I think the Twins have a potential great lineup? There is no doubt that they still need to add to their pitching.'

Dave Cameron: 'You’re probably focusing too much on upside and not enough on what these players are right now. Buxton has a lot of tools but there are few reasons to think he’ll hit well in 2016.'

[mikelink45]

I like the projected lineup - except I would drop Mauer Lower (won't happen because it would create too much angst).  

 

The Danny Santana candidate for 2016 could be Rosario, I think everyone is expecting it.  But I fear that Sano gets that swing flying and SOs piling up and he could be the Vargas candidate.  I hope not.  I really liked both of these last year, but the year before I was excited by Danny Santana.  And I do expect the Hicks turn around candidate will be Buxton.  Speed does not diminish unless there is injury and speed will be the weapon that pushes Buxton to the forefront. 

 

Potential in this lineup is great - but it would be amazing for all these parts to come together in 2016 - I think it will be 2017 before it moves on all cylinders, but that does not mean 2016 will not count.

 

Now put an analysis together for defense.  We know what we have on the mound and someone needs to corral all those hit balls. 

[Tecmo]

Honestly, I'd bat Mauer lead off, at least until Buxton is ready to take over that spot. He's still the best Twin at getting on base and that's job one for a lead off hitter. And he likes to take pitches, which is an asset batting first. The biggest negative is his lack of speed, but at least if he bats first he can't hit into a double play.

[Circus Boy]

 

Honestly, I'd bat Mauer lead off, at least until Buxton is ready to take over that spot. He's still the best Twin at getting on base and that's job one for a lead off hitter. And he likes to take pitches, which is an asset batting first. The biggest negative is his lack of speed, but at least if he bats first he can't hit into a double play.

 

Wanna bet?

[sane09]

 

if he bats first he can't hit into a double play.

.....until his second at-bat.

[sane09]

Positioning The Twins Lineup For Success....

My mistake!

I thought this was a Self-Help Seminar.

[Tecmo]

 

.....until his second at-bat.

 

Well, that's one less at bat and players at the bottom of the order are less likely to get on base ahead of him. Works even better with Escobar batting 9th as a lot of his hits are for extra bases.

[ken]

 

Honestly, I'd bat Mauer lead off, at least until Buxton is ready to take over that spot. He's still the best Twin at getting on base and that's job one for a lead off hitter.

What Mauer has been doing well is hitting with runner on base, but not very well when the bases are empty.  His OBP with nobody on in 2014 was .310 & in 2015 it was .284.  Along with his lack of speed, he's better suited down in the order.

[Dantes929]

 

On that note, from Dave Cameron's chat today:

 

Scott: 'Is it crazy that I think the Twins have a potential great lineup? There is no doubt that they still need to add to their pitching.'

Dave Cameron: 'You’re probably focusing too much on upside and not enough on what these players are right now. Buxton has a lot of tools but there are few reasons to think he’ll hit well in 2016.'

I am a little middle of the road on this.    Santana regressing was easy to figure much like Valencia was back in the day (so far beyond their minor league numbers)   but I don't just assume guys that have success will be unable to maintain it much like I don't assume that Mauer will continue to struggle or that Dozier won't be able to adjust and get on base more.   I am an optimist.    Buxton may very well continue to struggle but I can also certainly imagine him putting in a lot of work in the off season and maybe getting off to a fast start will get him some confidence and get him to sustainable success quicker than people think.    I have seen slow starts from him at each level and quick learning.   Who knows?   I just want him to get off to a quick start so he can perform without the stress that a slow starts produces.    Natural vs pressing.   

As far as the rest of the team goes I am always optimistic guys can have good years but if everyone produces like above and given the unearned runs and bench production of last year I figure they would finish at 765 runs which would have put them in 2nd place of all baseball last year.  That just seems a little too optimistic even for me.  

 

One thing people also have to remember is that acceptable stats nowadays are not the same as they were 10 years ago.     AVERAGE runs per major league team is down about 100 runs from a decade ago.   Subtract 6 RBI per player and the peripheral stats that go with it from the above estimates and the Twins will still score more than average and likely in the top 10.    I would be very happy with top 10.  

[Rosterman]

It's bad enough to have a strikeout prone guy batting fourth, but also have one bat second AND third. Mauer is there to drive home a leadoff runner. Dozier is NOT your perfect #2 hitter because of his K's. When you egt to 4th and 5th in the order, you either got the long ball out (sacrifice) or live with the homer/strikeout choice. Even moving a Rosario up in the order is a tough call because of his K's. The Twins have to work on NOT STRIKING OUT. We don't know how Murphy will eprform. And Buxton, if he can put the ball in play, will be a godsend.

[drjim]

 

I am a little middle of the road on this.    Santana regressing was easy to figure much like Valencia was back in the day (so far beyond their minor league numbers)   but I don't just assume guys that have success will be unable to maintain it much like I don't assume that Mauer will continue to struggle or that Dozier won't be able to adjust and get on base more.   I am an optimist.    Buxton may very well continue to struggle but I can also certainly imagine him putting in a lot of work in the off season and maybe getting off to a fast start will get him some confidence and get him to sustainable success quicker than people think.    I have seen slow starts from him at each level and quick learning.   Who knows?   I just want him to get off to a quick start so he can perform without the stress that a slow starts produces.    Natural vs pressing.   

As far as the rest of the team goes I am always optimistic guys can have good years but if everyone produces like above and given the unearned runs and bench production of last year I figure they would finish at 765 runs which would have put them in 2nd place of all baseball last year.  That just seems a little too optimistic even for me.  

 

One thing people also have to remember is that acceptable stats nowadays are not the same as they were 10 years ago.     AVERAGE runs per major league team is down about 100 runs from a decade ago.   Subtract 6 RBI per player and the peripheral stats that go with it from the above estimates and the Twins will still score more than average and likely in the top 10.    I would be very happy with top 10.  

 

I think the Twins have a good mix of upside and youth, with some depth, and possibilities for rebounds that could/should cancel out some expected regression. Great lineup seems a stretch, but it should be pretty solid.

 

To me, and it is not especially controversial, but Buxton is such a massive x factor. I think the Twins have a very solid lineup if he puts up his Steamer line 258/309/398, which I find a little optimistic. I would probably bank on more of a 245/290/375, which is not great, but acceptable for an elite d/speed guy batting low in the order.

 

What makes him an x factor, though, is if he can put it together much quicker than expected, puts up something like a 280/335/490 (aka something slightly worse than Correa put up) or even higher. Combine that with a decent Park and a slight rebound from Mauer and you would have a really good order, maybe even great.

[stringer bell]

I wouldn't want to see that many RH bats in a row on the top of the order. Mauer should probably be in there someplace, most likely second. I don't mind Dozier hitting lower, but I think if Buxton does start the season with the Twins, he hits ninth to start, with Dozier first and Mauer likely second.

[Dr. Evil]

Would it be a stretch to bat Escobar leadoff? He seems to grab challenges and run with them. Maybe something like this....

Escobar

Dozier

Sano

Park

Mauer

Plouffe

Murphy

Rosario

Buxton

[Bob Sacamento]

I have a hard time seeing Sano out to RF, yes his bat has to be in the lineup but RF? Really? Yes he's got a strong arm and is more athletic than one would think but last I heard he's around 270lb that my friends is a defensive liability.  And that liability becomes even more of an issue as the pitching staff is built around contact.  OF is more than just flyballs, it's route running, cutoff men, backing up others, etc.

 

Plus learning a new position usually isn't the best thing for one's development, less time working on his stroke and nuisances at the plate.

[Thrylos]

Too early to even start thinking about the Twins' lineup.    And the stories they are spreading about Sano have him at LF instead of RF (with that overhang etc...)

 

Pretty certain that the Twins will make changes by opening day...

[Tecmo]

 

What Mauer has been doing well is hitting with runner on base, but not very well when the bases are empty.  His OBP with nobody on in 2014 was .310 & in 2015 it was .284.  Along with his lack of speed, he's better suited down in the order.

 I have to admit, those numbers do surprise me. But until we find someone who can get on base consistently, I don't think that having him bat behind Escobar, who tends to get into scoring position when he gets on base, is a bad thing. Maybe we let Escobar lead off as previously suggested and Mauer hits two behind him.

[old nurse]

 

Too early to even start thinking about the Twins' lineup.    And the stories they are spreading about Sano have him at LF instead of RF (with that overhang etc...)

 

Pretty certain that the Twins will make changes by opening day...

It is just baseball dreaming on a winter day. As John Phillips wrote all those years ago, "I'd be safe and warm if Nolasco were in LA.  Baseball dreaming on such a winter day".

Something like that.

[ken]

 

 I have to admit, those numbers do surprise me. But until we find someone who can get on base consistently, I don't think that having him bat behind Escobar, who tends to get into scoring position when he gets on base, is a bad thing. Maybe we let Escobar lead off as previously suggested and Mauer hits two behind him.

I think you have to have Dozier in one of the top 2 positions.  What he does best is score runs - his scoring % when on base in 2014 was 41% and 39% in 2015 (Mauer was 31% in 2014 and 27% in 2015).  He has speed and he has shown the ability to be a high on base player.  Then the question is if you believe Buxton is ready to be your leadoff hitter.  If he is, than Mauer is your #3 hitter at best, if not then he your #2 hitter.

 

But if he doesn't hit better than he did last year, I would drop him lower in the lineup.

 

 

 I have to admit, those numbers do surprise me. But until we find someone who can get on base consistently, I don't think that having him bat behind Escobar, who tends to get into scoring position when he gets on base, is a bad thing. Maybe we let Escobar lead off as previously suggested and Mauer hits two behind him.

 

[Shane Wahl]

Starts:

 

Dozier

Mauer

Sano

Plouffe

Rosario

Park

Murphy

Escobar

Buxton

 

Ends (when this starts, I don't know):

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Rosario

Dozier

Plouffe

Murphy

Escobar

 

 

[Boom Boom]

The Twins need Buxton to establish himself as a lead-off type hitter. They have too many low-OBP, high-strikeout hitters and adding Park won't help fix it.

[Rosterman]

 

Starts:

 

Dozier

Mauer

Sano

Plouffe

Rosario

Park

Murphy

Escobar

Buxton

 

Ends (when this starts, I don't know):

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Rosario

Dozier

Plouffe

Murphy

Escobar

I like the ENDS lineup. Could live with that. Even if Arcia replaces Plouffe, say, and Sano goes to third base. What makes this even more exciting is if this is the lineup (with Kepler somewhere) for 2017.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I can't get my phone to cooperate so...

 

"Like"

 

 

"old nurse

Jan 01 2016 06:32 AM

 

 

Thrylos, on 31 Dec 2015 - 6:58 PM, said:

Too early to even start thinking about the Twins' lineup. And the stories they are spreading about Sano have him at LF instead of RF (with that overhang etc...)

 

Pretty certain that the Twins will make changes by opening day...

It is just baseball dreaming on a winter day. As John Phillips wrote all those years ago, "I'd be safe and warm if Nolasco were in LA.Baseball dreaming on such a winter day".

Something like that."

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Would it be a stretch to bat Escobar leadoff? He seems to grab challenges and run with them. Maybe something like this....

Escobar / Dozier / Sano / Park / Mauer / Plouffe / Murphy / Rosario / Buxton

 

Hmmm. I'm a pretty big Escobar fan but I have to admit I never really considered him for the leadoff spot. Batting second I have thought of, but it might be good to have a switch-hitter batting first.

 

I suspect he'll be given a shot at it if Buxton isn't ready and no one else steps up.

 

I might like this idea, but he would have to pick up his OBP. 

 

Sadly, almost all the Twins need to pick up their OBP.