Article: Power On Deck?

[Nick Nelson]

To say that the Twins have not traditionally been a team that specializes in power-hitting would be a late entrant for "Most Obvious Statement of 2015." Anyone who has followed Minnesota baseball knows that home runs have generally been a little tough to come by around these parts. In the past decade, the Twins have never ranked in the top half of the American League in long balls, and they've been last or second-to-last five times during that span.

 

There's reason to think that trend might be changing, though.We have already begun to see some upward movement. After ranking at the bottom of the AL in homers in both 2011 and 2012, the Twins took a step forward in 2013, going deep 151 times to rank 11th with seven different players reaching double-digits. In 2014 they once again ranked 11th and this year they moved up to 10th.

 

That might not sound like any kind of major accomplishment but it marks the first time that Minnesota has broken into the Top 10 since 2004, which also happens to be the last time they won a playoff game. That year, a lineup powered by 20+ HR efforts from Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones and Torii Hunter piled up a total of 191 bombs, most for a Twins team since 1987.

 

It's unlikely they're going to get back to that total in this era of lowered offense (12 teams hit 191 or more homers in 2004, while five did so in 2015), but it's quite plausible that they could once again approach a Top 5 rank in the American League, maybe even as soon as next year.

 

These five players are big reasons why:

 

Miguel Sano

 

He is the obvious starting point. As a 22-year-old rookie seeing MLB pitching for the first time after skipping Triple-A, Sano hit 18 home runs in 80 games this year with the Twins. When you include his 15 homers at Chattanooga prior to being called up, that pushes his season total to 33. Forty is a realistic target for this elite slugging talent. If Sano is in the lineup alongside Trevor Plouffe, rather than as his replacement, those two alone could combine for 60 long balls.

 

Byung Ho Park

 

The biggest acquisition of the offseason thus far, Park launched 53 home runs in Korea this year after going deep 52 times in 2014. In total, he has amassed 173 homers over the past four seasons across the pond. While it's impossible to predict how that prodigious power will translate to the majors, one predictive model estimates 27 dingers next year. That would be the highest total for a regular Twins DH since Jason Kubel's 28 in 2009.

 

Brian Dozier

 

It's not being talked about much because of his ugly second half, but Dozier took another big step forward in the power department this year, clubbing a career-high 28 home runs. That total was 33 percent higher than the No. 2 second baseman, Robinson Cano. Based on his HR progression in three years as a full-time starter (from 18 to 23 to 28), his 2015 production looks like no fluke. If he comes close to 30 again next year, he'll give the Twins a big edge at a position that is typically low on pop.

 

Eduardo Escobar

 

Escobar is another guy who gives the Twins a key positional power advantage. His .445 slugging percentage in 2015 outranked all qualified MLB shortstops other than Brandon Crawford of the Giants. Escobar hit 12 home runs in 127 games this year, which projects to about 15 in a full season. No Minnesota shortstop has reached that total since Roy Smalley in 1979. Dozier and Escobar provide a tremendous power combo up the middle that helps offset the offense's clear weakness at first base.

 

Oswaldo Arcia

 

The forgotten man. While his brutal 2015 campaign may have a number of fans down on him, it's important to remember that, among players 24 and under, Arcia's 36 home runs since 2013 ranks 12th in the majors. Since he's out of options and the Twins currently project to have at least one corner outfield opening, I'd expect to see him starting next year with a chance to reestablish his intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup.

 

Wild Cards: Kennys Vargas and Adam Walker

 

Vargas is on the outs right now, but he remains on the 40-man roster and would be in line for substantial playing time if either Park or Joe Mauer were to go down with an injury. A massive specimen at 6'5" 290 and still only 25 years old, Vargas' potential in the HR column is obvious, especially if you've ever seen him take BP. Meanwhile, Walker was just added to the 40-man last month after ranking fourth among all minor-leaguers with 31 bombs for Class-AA Chattanooga this year. Many believe that he has the most raw power of any player in the organization -- quite the statement in a system that also includes Sano and Vargas. Another name to keep in mind is Daniel Palka, the 24-year-old outfielder acquired from Arizona in the Chris Herrmann deal who hit 29 homers at Double-A this year.

 

If they all stay healthy and play up to their demonstrated ability level, it's not unthinkable that six players -- Sano (35), Dozier (25), Park (25), Plouffe (20), Arcia (20), Escobar (15) -- could combine to come close to Minnesota's 2015 team home run total of 156. Sprinkle in some output from guys like Mauer and Eddie Rosario, as well as perhaps a little extra from the wild cards mentioned above, and you have the makings of a legitimate power-hitting lineup that can match up against some of the league's best.

 

It's been a long time since we've been able to say that around here.

 

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[bluechipper]

I'm really optimistic that this year's team can be one of the top 5 offenses in the AL and hopefully get in the 175 HR range.

[James Richter]

Another reason to keep upgrading the bullpen - keep it close for this offense!

[Dantes929]

I buy into all of it except for Dozier.   I really think it wasn't just him tiring out but also him trying to pull the ball at all costs and the pitchers trying to prevent him from pulling the ball at all costs.    He has power but I do not think he will hit for those totals again and should not be trying to.    He needs to hit the other way and get on base way more often.  If he does that they will shift him differently and pitch him differently.

[Dantes929]

its also worth noting that the Twins were 11th in scoring in 2015 while ranking 16th in homers.   They were 7th in scoring in 2014 while ranking 19th in homers.    Twins once outscored Toronto despite hitting 100 fewer home runs.    More home runs don't equate to more runs.   

 

Its  interesting to me that there has been a big deal made about KC and their pitching and how everyone thinks that is the new model that teams should strive for but no mention is made  (I also believe their great defense is overlooked but that is a different conversation) about  their formula for offense..      Everyone talks about the necessity for having strikeout pitchers while ignoring the fact that KC also won the WS by being the toughest team to strikeout.  

To sum up everyone wants strike out pitchers and power offenses saying that it the necessary combination to win in the playoffs while KC won it all by refusing to strikeout against strikeout pitchers and scoring without hitting a lot of homers.  They have been the hardest to strike out two years in row and been 24th and 30th in home run and have gotten to the WS twice and yet no one is modeling their offense after KC.   

[birddog]

Exciting article! Can't wait to see what this lineup is going to bring in power numbers. Keep Sano healthy and we are going to absolutely fall in love with this guy if we haven't already. I love his at bats. Rarely swings at bad pitches and gets a good swing on almost every one he offers at. Park is the question mark but nice to have some power behind Sano. If he can hit 27 next year, we'd love that. There seems to be quite a bit of negativity that Twins are going to regress next year, but I don't think so. I really like our lineup and think we have enough pitching to make the playoffs and even challenge KC for the division.

 

I really like EE at SS to start the season. I think the biggest question mark is once again at first base--not just in the power numbers but in overall production. If he is not producing the quality numbers we need, learn from the Vikings and "next man up".

[jorgenswest]

Arcia is a key. The Twins need that left handed power bat.

[Blake]

Mount Crushmore 2.0?

[Madre Dos]

It looks like Casa Shell could be worth about 75 HR next season!

[savvyspy]

its also worth noting that the Twins were 11th in scoring in 2015 while ranking 16th in homers.   They were 7th in scoring in 2014 while ranking 19th in homers.    Twins once outscored Toronto despite hitting 100 fewer home runs.    More home runs don't equate to more runs.   

 

Its  interesting to me that there has been a big deal made about KC and their pitching and how everyone thinks that is the new model that teams should strive for but no mention is made  (I also believe their great defense is overlooked but that is a different conversation) about  their formula for offense..      Everyone talks about the necessity for having strikeout pitchers while ignoring the fact that KC also won the WS by being the toughest team to strikeout.  

To sum up everyone wants strike out pitchers and power offenses saying that it the necessary combination to win in the playoffs while KC won it all by refusing to strikeout against strikeout pitchers and scoring without hitting a lot of homers.  They have been the hardest to strike out two years in row and been 24th and 30th in home run and have gotten to the WS twice and yet no one is modeling their offense after KC.

 

Agree times a million!!!

 

Lockdown bullpen, solid defense, and get on base will take you places in this league.

 

Twins don't really do any of those well.

 

[TNLooky2015]

Not saying Walkers better than Sano (he's not), but just imagine what power numbers a Twins lineup could bring considering Walker had 8 more HRs than Sano (23 to 15) when Sano got called up in June. Sano; Park; & Walker alone could hit 100+. Arcia actually never hit more than 20 HRs in the minors yet bashed in the MLB once he arrived. Sano was more prolific in the MLB than in Chattanooga too. Can't wait to see how Park and Walker perform in spring training and beyond.

[Riverbrian]

 

I buy into all of it except for Dozier.   I really think it wasn't just him tiring out but also him trying to pull the ball at all costs and the pitchers trying to prevent him from pulling the ball at all costs.    He has power but I do not think he will hit for those totals again and should not be trying to.    He needs to hit the other way and get on base way more often.  If he does that they will shift him differently and pitch him differently.

 

These are my thoughts on Dozier exactly. What are you doing in my head? 

 

The sky is the limit if he ever learns to go the other way. 

[Linus]

These are my thoughts on Dozier exactly. What are you doing in my head?

 

The sky is the limit if he ever learns to go the other way.

Hold on here, I thought it was well documented the Twins brainwashed all their hitters to go the other way?

[mikelink45]

Earl Weaver was the believer in the three run home run and set this model early, with success, but that success was predicated on having four 20 game winners in the rotation and outstanding defense with Belanger, Brooks Robinson, and Paul Blair made them strong up the middle.  I am worried that defense does not seem to be a concern in the roster and, of course, our starting pitchers are not up to the Earl Weaver Standards.  We have ignored the KC model, but we are flawed in our pursuit of the Earl Weaver model too. 

[HitInAPinch]

There's a difference between hitting HR's and being a hitter that teams fear.  Pitchers feared Killebrew and Reggie Jackson.  I believe Sano has shown enough, so far, that pitchers will fear him next year.

 

Dozier, Arcia, Park and Vargas?  Not so much.  I think Escobar and Rosario will be more of a difference maker than those 4 [ not talking just home runs here ].

[Linus]

There are many ways to construct a lineup. I think the biggest factor is each guy has to contribute something (power speed obp). When you have multiple guys in the lineup that don't do anything well and strikeout a lot your offense is going to sputter.

[Dantes929]

 

Earl Weaver was the believer in the three run home run and set this model early, with success, but that success was predicated on having four 20 game winners in the rotation and outstanding defense with Belanger, Brooks Robinson, and Paul Blair made them strong up the middle.  I am worried that defense does not seem to be a concern in the roster and, of course, our starting pitchers are not up to the Earl Weaver Standards.  We have ignored the KC model, but we are flawed in our pursuit of the Earl Weaver model too. 

I am not against power by any means.   In fact, I love when our team hits 3 run homers.   Problem with hitting 3 run homers is that you need 2 guys on base for it to happen.      For all Mauer's detractors, much of which is justified based on his performance it seemed like many of Sano's homers had Mauer on base in front of him.    As alluded to above it would be nice if Dozier were on base as well. (or Buxton, or Mauer more often)

[J_Dobs]

 

I buy into all of it except for Dozier.   I really think it wasn't just him tiring out but also him trying to pull the ball at all costs and the pitchers trying to prevent him from pulling the ball at all costs.    He has power but I do not think he will hit for those totals again and should not be trying to.    He needs to hit the other way and get on base way more often.  If he does that they will shift him differently and pitch him differently.

 

I agree, I do not know if we can count on Dozier next year. Look at the stats below, if you lead the league in pull percentage by over 4%, the league will have his number if he doesn’t make any adjustments.

 

[tobi0040]

 

 

I agree, I do not know if we can count on Dozier next year. Look at the stats below, if you lead the league in pull percentage by over 4%, the league will have his number if he doesn’t make any adjustments.

 

 

 

His power has been pull heavy for some time though.  He has very quick hands and can take a pitch on the outer half and yank it over the left field wall.

 

Look at the top 10 on that list.  Most have been pretty solid for years now.

 

 

 

[BoomBoom]

Power on Deck

Arcia 513 Minor League Games - 80 HRs / 349 RBI

ABW 452 Minor League Games - 97 HRs / 354 RBI (61 less games)

Vargas 454 Minor League Games - 72 HRs / 315 RBI 

 

Love the swing.  Smoooooooooth

2016 DH and / or 4th Outfielder (IMO)

 

Anxious to see Park mash too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

His power has been pull heavy for some time though.  He has very quick hands and can take a pitch on the outer half and yank it over the left field wall.

 

Look at the top 10 on that list.  Most have been pretty solid for years now.

I have always liked Dozier but in the minors he hit .298 with a .370 OBP.  His last year in high minors he hit .320 with a .399 OBP.   I don't doubt that he can still pull some home runs on the outer half but I don't want that to be his goal.  It seemed the vast majority of his home runs were up and middle in.   I just think he can be a more complete and valuable lead off hitter if he uses all fields.   I would gladly sacrifice a little power for a rise in OBP.    From Morneau to Cuddyer to Valencia, to Young to Kubel to Mauer to Willingham I have never liked when it appears they have tried to pull the ball.    They have all been most effective when stepping toward the pitcher and letting the natural pull work for them.   Dozier is talented enough to turn on inside pitches while still taking what the pitchers give him on the outside, imo.    Same goes for Sano.  Pull middle in and either go the other way or up the middle with outer half or let it go.  

[ken]

 

For all Mauer's detractors, much of which is justified based on his performance it seemed like many of Sano's homers had Mauer on base in front of him.    As alluded to above it would be nice if Dozier were on base as well. (or Buxton, or Mauer more often)

This maybe more of a perception than reality, after the all-star break Dozier scored 34 runs (with an OBP of .280) and Mauer scored 31 runs (with an OBP of .341).  One thing Dozier is very good at is producing runs.

 

Like all players, it's a game of adjustments and Dozier will have to make some to continue to be productive.  But I have confidence that he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments.

[stringer bell]

Not only does Dozier lead the league in pull percentage, he also hits the ball very weakly when it is on the right side of second base. With the exception of a homer against Corey Kluber, he has never hit a homer to the right of center and very few to center and left-center. 95% of his power to straightaway left and down the line. The point is that Dozier needs to adjust to go the other way occasionally with authority.

 

The mid-May 2013 adjustment that made him a relative slugger also limited his ability to use the whole field IMHO. I hope he can incrementally adjust, but I think his ceiling as a hitter might be only .270. It would be nice if he drew as many walks in 2016 as he did in 2014--that would bring the OBP up to good levels and keep him as a factor in the top of the lineup.

[tobi0040]

 

Not only does Dozier lead the league in pull percentage, he also hits the ball very weakly when it is on the right side of second base. With the exception of a homer against Corey Kluber, he has never hit a homer to the right of center and very few to center and left-center. 95% of his power to straightaway left and down the line. The point is that Dozier needs to adjust to go the other way occasionally with authority.

 

The mid-May 2013 adjustment that made him a relative slugger also limited his ability to use the whole field IMHO. I hope he can incrementally adjust, but I think his ceiling as a hitter might be only .270. It would be nice if he drew as many walks in 2016 as he did in 2014--that would bring the OBP up to good levels and keep him as a factor in the top of the lineup.

 

I don't really care what his average is.  He has done a decent job taking walks and if he continues to hit 24+ HR with 35-40 2B, he will one of the better hitting 2B in baseball.

 

On that list of top pull hitters, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, and Troy Tulowitski have been household names for quite some time.  David Ortiz is another.  Since 2012 a vast majority of his HR's have been to right field and have actually been away from Fenway. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Hold on here, I thought it was well documented the Twins brainwashed all their hitters to go the other way?

 

They do

 

It just doesn't take on some people. 

 

I was on stage with a hypnotist once. He suggested to me that everything I touched was freezing cold. 

 

I walked off the stage with total control of my actions. However later that night... when I touched my wife. Wow... It must have kicked in later. 

 

I hope that happens with Dozier. 

[Willihammer]

 

I don't really care what his average is.  He has done a decent job taking walks and if he continues to hit 24+ HR with 35-40 2B, he will one of the better hitting 2B in baseball.

 

On that list of top pull hitters, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, and Troy Tulowitski have been household names for quite some time.  David Ortiz is another.  Since 2012 a vast majority of his HR's have been to right field and have actually been away from Fenway. 

Agree. IMO people make way too much of Dozier's pull tendencies. Pulled balls tend to be harder hit, tend to go for more xbhs (a category Dozier finished highly in).

I'd say Dozier's biggest flaw is popping up too many balls. Otherwise his approach is damn near flawless IMHO.

[Willihammer]

Why haven't the Twins extended Sano yet?

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Dozier - MLB (2015)

GP - 157

AB - 628

Runs - 101

Hits - 148

2B - 39

3B - 4

HR - 28

Rbi - 77

BB - 61

SO - 148

SB - 12

CS - 4

BA - .236

OBP - .307

SLG - .444

OPS - .751

 

Walker - MiLB + AFL (2015)
GP - 153
AB - 577
Runs - 86
Hits - 138
2B - 33
3B - 4
HR - 36
Rbi - 124
BB - 59
SO - 230
SB - 14
CS - 4
BA - .240
OBP - .314
SLG - .496
OPS - .811

 

Now Consider this:

Somehow Dozier / Sano / Vargas / Arcia / and Santana had better success in the MLB their Rookie seasons, compared to their last season in minor league ball prior to debut.  Walker will be that Power guy this season as a rookie.  Better success at the MLB level in 2016.

[Twodogs]

 

I buy into all of it except for Dozier.   I really think it wasn't just him tiring out but also him trying to pull the ball at all costs and the pitchers trying to prevent him from pulling the ball at all costs.    He has power but I do not think he will hit for those totals again and should not be trying to.    He needs to hit the other way and get on base way more often.  If he does that they will shift him differently and pitch him differently.

I agree, baseball is a game of adjustments and the quality pitchers in the AL were able to adjust to Dozier most likely by throwing away from him.  Unless he adjusts I think he may have some struggles.