Article: Trevor May Should Be In The Rotation

[Tom Froemming]

In a fan forum Wednesday evening, Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor indicated he would probably prefer to keep Trevor May in the bullpen. The plan for spring training, however, is for May to prepare for the 2016 as a starting pitcher. If given an opportunity, I have the utmost confidence May will force the team's hand and pitch his way into the rotation.After the season ended, the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino wrote a piece that had a couple of telling quotes. May expressed his desire to return to the rotation and Terry Ryan expressed belief that May can be a legit 200-inning starter. So ... what's the problem?

 

Management is letting the murky bullpen situation cloud its judgment of how best to use May in 2016, but if they leave the door open for May to crack the rotation, as they've indicated, it's gonna happen.

 

Here's a quote from May in the Berardino piece:

 

"There's no doubt in my mind I can be a go-to guy on this team -- on any team -- as a starter. I don't think I've achieved anywhere close to what I can achieve as a starter. I'm excited to come in next year and kind of open some eyes."

 

This is a confident guy who thinks he has figured everything out. He wants the ball to start the game, and I'm sure he's putting in extra work this winter to be prepared to do everything he can to make that happen. There's no reason to doubt his ability to put in the necessary work and make adjustments at this point.

 

Back in 2013, Eric Longenhagen of Crashburn Alley, who had been closely following May as a Phillies prospect, took another look at the former fourth-round pick. He noted May's stronger legs and noticed a productive switch from a 3/4 arm slot to throwing more over the top. Overall, Longenhagen felt May had made strides in his first year in the Twins system.

 

The biggest knock on May throughout his minor league career was that he walked too many guys. Over 775 innings on the farm, he had averaged 4.4 BB/9. May impressed enough during the 2014 season to earn a promotion to the Twins, but again he struggled with free passes.

 

In February, R.J. White of CBS Sports reported that May had taken up yoga. The especially interesting part was his reason why.

 

"Every scouting report I’ve ever seen on myself says, 'Has trouble repeating his delivery.' Well, yoga is literally repeating moves, keeping your body under your control. I do the warrior pose, which is [the same as] striding and throwing a baseball. It has to help."

 

In 2014, May walked 22 batters in just 45 2/3 innings with the Twins. Last season? He issued just 26 free passes over 114 2/3 innings. I'd say the yoga helped.

 

So, over the past couple years May has managed to clean up his mechanics and solve his biggest question mark as a starter. He has been willing to make adjustments and knows himself as a pitcher. He's aware of his weaknesses, but is confident he can be a difference maker.

 

Add it all up and I'm not betting against Trevor May pitching his way back into the rotation.

 

Sure, when you take a look at all the options the Twins have, it can be difficult to see it happening. The club has five veteran starters already, all of whom are expecting to be in the rotation. On top of that, there's Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios. But a lot can happen between now and Opening Day.

 

Someone may get moved. It's even possible someone looks so bad this spring they pitch themselves out of a job. Unfortunately, somebody could get hurt. All three of those things could happen.

 

But even if everyone makes it out of camp in the system and healthy, I believe May is going to make it very difficult for the club to send him back to the bullpen. One thing I keep thinking about is who I'd most like to see start a Wild Card game if the Twins can make it in.

 

Is it crazy to say May? ... Probably. But, I'm not the only one with a baseball man crush on the guy. John Sickels of Minor League Ball predicted May would be an All-Star starter for the Twins in 2016.

 

It's possible the person who will make the case for May in the rotation is actually Casey Fien. If he's looking good (I'm not certain he was ever really healthy in 2015), maybe the team feels more comfortable going without May's services in the pen. Or maybe Alex Meyer shows something in spring (is it possible we can pass along May's yoga instructor's number?). Or it's still possible the club makes an impact free agent addition.

 

Plus, Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen are still at the back end of the bullpen. It's not like May was ever going to be the closer or anything. How hard can it be to find another viable seventh inning option?

 

I understand the team is nervous to take May out of a role in which he's been successful. The bullpen can use all the help it can get, but if you looked around at some of the starting pitching matchups this October, you realized the Twins' rotation is also severely lacking in high-end talent.

 

In the end, we're talking about at potential difference of 200 innings vs. 60 innings from one of the clubs most talented hurlers. It's an easy call to make.

 

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[h2oface]

I'm with you 100%. Trevor May should be in the rotation. More on that in the other article's comments Like It Or Not, May Is Bullpen Bound. I won't be redundant and repeat it here.

[diehardtwinsfan]

100% with you here too.  I'd note that in 2014 his BB numbers dropped significantly in AAA.  If yoga helped, great, but I think he was already figuring things out. 

 

I really wish someone would give TR an offer he couldn't refuse for Milone. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'm with you 100%. Trevor May should be in the rotation. More on that in the other article's comments Like It Or Not, May Is Bullpen Bound. I won't be redundant and repeat it here.

Thanks for linking over to Nick's article. I think he has valid arguments for May in the pen, should be fun to follow the comments on both articles. 

 

I don't see anyone on either side who expects May to pitch poorly. So what happens if he comes in preparing as a starter and has the best spring of anyone in camp? That's a possibility, in fact, I'd put my money on it. Are they really going to send him back to the bullpen?

 

Can you imagine the reaction? It would be equivalent to a riot on the threads here.

 

Plus, what kind of message are you sending to your players? You're basically saying "if we put you in the bullpen, you better not pitch well there or else we're just gonna leave you our there forever." You think any young emerging Twins starter is ever going to want to accept a demotion to the bullpen, like May did?

[Tom Froemming]

 

100% with you here too.  I'd note that in 2014 his BB numbers dropped significantly in AAA.  If yoga helped, great, but I think he was already figuring things out. 

 

I really wish someone would give TR an offer he couldn't refuse for Milone. 

I say keep Milone and put him in the pen instead. Isn't our main concern out there not have a good lefty? Just because the guy doesn't throw 95 doesn't mean he can't make it work out there. Darren O'Day, the top free agent reliever in this year's market, only averaged 86.7 mph on his fastball in 2015. Milone's average fastball was 87.8 mph.

[Mike Sixel]

I endorse the message of this 100%.

 

They are in this position because they won't either:

 

1. commit to the young guys they have (NONE OF WHOM got a tryout last fall)

2. Sign good RP FAs.

 

That's no excuse to put a guy with #2 upside in the bullpen this year. Maybe in a year you were going all in, but they aren't doing that this year at all.

[sane09]

 

Plus, what kind of message are you sending to your players? You're basically saying "if we put you in the bullpen, you better not pitch well there or else we're just gonna leave you our there forever."

That message was previously sent to Matt Guerrier and Anthony Swarzak during the last administration.

[DaveW]

That message was previously sent to Matt Guerrier and Anthony Swarzak during the last administration.

Swarzak had ample shots to start though and was a failed starter, he is the perfect example of a guy who you ultimately stick in the pen. May has had success as a starter and has a high ceiling, pulling the plug on him way too early.

[Thrylos]

Not all innings are created equal.  Good teams want their best pitchers in high leverage situations.  And in good teams, those will likely be in the pen.  For example in the 2015 Royals, Wade Davis faced more opponents in High Leverage situations (107) than Danny Daffy (102), or Jeremy Guthrie (99).  Also a good reliever can influence the outcome of twice as many games than a starter...

[Thrylos]

 

 

I say keep Milone and put him in the pen instead. Isn't our main concern out there not have a good lefty? Just because the guy doesn't throw 95 doesn't mean he can't make it work out there. Darren O'Day, the top free agent reliever in this year's market, only averaged 86.7 mph on his fastball in 2015. Milone's average fastball was 87.8 mph.

 

Let me take that O'Day Milone comparison a tad further:

 

LHB hit .261/.316/.415 off Milone and RHB .193/.261/.279 off O'Day. 

Milone has a career 16.9% K% and 16.8% in 2015.  O'Day has a career 24.2 % K% and 31.9% in 2015

 

The Twins can get as much from any of the 3 MiLB FAs they signed or from O'Rourke than they can get from Milone for at least $5 million less.

[sane09]

 

Swarzak had ample shots to start though and was a failed starter, he is the perfect example of a guy who you ultimately stick in the pen. May has had success as a starter and has a high ceiling, pulling the plug on him way too early.

I am in NO WAY saying that Swarzak was better than May, BUT:

In 2011 Swarzak had a quality start percentage of 73% (8/11),

but was back in the bullpen out of Spring Training the next season,

and never got into the rotation.

May's career MLB QS% is 36% (9/25).

[DaveW]

I am in NO WAY saying that Swarzak was better than May, BUT:

In 2011 Swarzak had a quality start percentage of 73% (8/11),

but was back in the bullpen out of Spring Training the next season,

and never got into the rotation.

May's career MLB QS% is 36% (9/25).

Not a bad point, I forgot that Swazak wasn't half bad in the rotation. But he just seemed to me to never be more than a #5 anyways (could be wrong) where as I see May as a potential 2/3 type

[sane09]

 

Let me take that O'Day Milone comparison a tad further:

 

LHB hit .261/.316/.415 off Milone and RHB .193/.261/.279 off O'Day. 

Milone has a career 16.9% K% and 16.8% in 2015.  O'Day has a career 24.2 % K% and 31.9% in 2015

 

The Twins can get as much from any of the 3 MiLB FAs they signed or from O'Rourke than they can get from Milone for at least $5 million less.

Did you mean O'Rourke or O'Day?

Because the difference is like O'Night and O'Day!

[sane09]

 

Not a bad point, I forgot that Swazak wasn't half bad in the rotation. But he just seemed to me to never be more than a #5 anyways (could be wrong) where as I see May as a potential 2/3 type

I agree.

My comment was only regarding the "message" in Tom Froemming's post that pitching TOO WELL in the bullpen, may get you a life sentence in the bullpen.

[sane09]

 

Not all innings are created equal.  Good teams want their best pitchers in high leverage situations.  And in good teams, those will likely be in the pen.  For example in the 2015 Royals, Wade Davis faced more opponents in High Leverage situations (107) than Danny Daffy (102), or Jeremy Guthrie (99).  Also a good reliever can influence the outcome of twice as many games than a starter...

I know it was a typo, but "Danny Daffy" is a perfect name for many pitchers I have met.

[Dantes929]

 

I am in NO WAY saying that Swarzak was better than May, BUT:

In 2011 Swarzak had a quality start percentage of 73% (8/11),

but was back in the bullpen out of Spring Training the next season,

and never got into the rotation.

May's career MLB QS% is 36% (9/25).

SSS on May.   I would look to his minor league stats in his last year to get a better idea of QS.    I also look a little deeper at his major league career because it was pretty obvious he was either too nervous or too pumped to start his career.      Broken down his QSs numbers were 3 for his first 16 games and 6 for his last 9.    :Swarzak was ok but he wasn't going to continue at 73% whereas I do believe if given a full season May can do much better than league and team average.

[sane09]

 

SSS on May.   I would look to his minor league stats in his last year to get a better idea of QS.    I also look a little deeper at his major league career because it was pretty obvious he was either too nervous or too pumped to start his career.      Broken down his QSs numbers were 3 for his first 16 games and 6 for his last 9.    :Swarzak was ok but he wasn't going to continue at 73% whereas I do believe if given a full season May can do much better than league and team average.

No argument with that.

As I said...My comment was only regarding the "message" in Tom Froemming's post that pitching TOO WELL in the bullpen, may get you a life sentence in the bullpen.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Not all innings are created equal.  Good teams want their best pitchers in high leverage situations.  And in good teams, those will likely be in the pen.  For example in the 2015 Royals, Wade Davis faced more opponents in High Leverage situations (107) than Danny Daffy (102), or Jeremy Guthrie (99).  Also a good reliever can influence the outcome of twice as many games than a starter...

But how are you going to show them the circus if you can't get 'em into the tent?

 

If your starters can't hold a lead or keep it close heading into the 7th, I don't care if your bullpen is Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Let me take that O'Day Milone comparison a tad further:

 

LHB hit .261/.316/.415 off Milone and RHB .193/.261/.279 off O'Day. 

Milone has a career 16.9% K% and 16.8% in 2015.  O'Day has a career 24.2 % K% and 31.9% in 2015

 

The Twins can get as much from any of the 3 MiLB FAs they signed or from O'Rourke than they can get from Milone for at least $5 million less.

I was in no way trying to suggest you put Milone in the pen and he's O'Day. I was just trying to make the point that just because a guy is a soft tosser doesn't mean he can't be good in relief.

[Dantes929]

 

Not all innings are created equal.  Good teams want their best pitchers in high leverage situations.  And in good teams, those will likely be in the pen.  For example in the 2015 Royals, Wade Davis faced more opponents in High Leverage situations (107) than Danny Daffy (102), or Jeremy Guthrie (99).  Also a good reliever can influence the outcome of twice as many games than a starter...

Not all pitchers are created equal.    Some have an arsenal that plays really well for an inning or two but would not hold up through 6 or 7.    200 quality innings means less wear and tear on the pen.   Quality starts means more high leverage situations that would not exist given a poor start which is a good thing.   Quality starts also means fewer high leverage situations because of a lead that would not exist with poor starts.   Also a good thing.   I don't know who John Stickels is but he predicts all star performance for May in the rotation.    If he didn't have this kind of perceived upside no one would be making the case for taking May out of the pen.  

The Mets got to the WS by having a great rotation.   The Royals got there with a great relief staff.   Lets not get too carried away with the result of a 7 game series.   There is more than one way to skin a cat (not sure what those ways are or why you want to skin a cat but trust me its a saying).   There aren't many Wade Davis's around and I don't know that May has that kind of potential as a reliever.  Likewise I am not sure Davis could do what I think May can do as a starter.

[Thrylos]

 

 

The Mets got to the WS by having a great rotation.   The Royals got there with a great relief staff.   Lets not get too carried away with the result of a 7 game series.   There is more than one way to skin a cat (not sure what those ways are or why you want to skin a cat but trust me its a saying).  

 

Well you know that cat, May. 

 

a. Would he have a spot in the Mets' postseason rotation?

b. Would he have a spot in the Royals' postseason pen?

 

a. no way

b. likely

 

so, you know how to skin that cat

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am in NO WAY saying that Swarzak was better than May, BUT:

In 2011 Swarzak had a quality start percentage of 73% (8/11),

but was back in the bullpen out of Spring Training the next season,

and never got into the rotation.

Swarzak actually started the Twins 3rd game of the 2012 season, and stayed in the rotation for a couple more turns until a 2.2 IP, 3 HR, 6 run performance.  After a month of long relief, he returned to take Jason Marquis' spot in the rotation again in late May, and gave up 6 runs on 9 hits in 3.2 IP.

 

In spring training that year, he also had 2 starts and 15.1 IP in 6 games total, which was the 6th highest IP-to-G ratio on the staff (behind only starters Liriano, Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, and Marquis).

 

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=cle#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='S'&season=2012&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1450459756475&team_id=142&sportCode='mlb'&split=&active_sw=&position=&page_type=SortablePlayer&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=ip&results=&perPage=50&timeframe=&last_x_days=&extended=0

 

So presumably he was in the running for a rotation spot throughout that time, had he been able to perform.

 

I had forgotten he had some good starts in 2011, although he also had a few real clunkers too.  He finished the year with 6 starts, and despite 4 of them being quality starts, he managed a 5.85 ERA and .323 BAA in that stretch.

 

And of course, all of this was after his atrocious 6.21 ERA full season as a starter at AAA in 2010.  Up through that point, he had been an exclusive starter as a pro.

[Dantes929]

 

Well you know that cat, May. 

 

a. Would he have a spot in the Mets' postseason rotation?

b. Would he have a spot in the Royals' postseason pen?

 

a. no way

b. likely

 

so, you know how to skin that cat

That cat has already been skinned and is irrelevant.    Would he have a spot on 2016   Royals postseason rotation?  Very likely.  Would he have a spot on the 2016 Mets postseason  rotation?   That is what we are talking about.    If you think his ceiling is that or not.   I think it is.   

[sane09]

I don't know who John Stickels is but he predicts all star performance for May in the rotation.

It's John SICKELS, and his opinion should be respected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Sickels

[Dantes929]

 

It's John SICKELS, and his opinion should be respected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Sickels

He agrees with me.  Of course I respect him.

[sane09]

 

He agrees with me.  Of course I respect him.

Is that the ONLY requirement?

[Dantes929]

 

Is that the ONLY requirement?

Its a higher bar than you might imagine.   Very few people agree with me.

But no, its not the only requirement.   I'm not that superficial.    Looks and wealth factor in as well.

[sane09]

 

Its a higher bar than you might imagine.   Very few people agree with me.

But no, its not the only requirement.   I'm not that superficial.    Looks and wealth factor in as well.

Looks and wealth IS a high bar!

Agreeing is easy for many people, as long as there is no limit on mind changes.

[old nurse]

 

Not a bad point, I forgot that Swazak wasn't half bad in the rotation. But he just seemed to me to never be more than a #5 anyways (could be wrong) where as I see May as a potential 2/3 type

The half that was bad was really bad. Batting practice bad

[jimmer]

John Sickels goes out of his way to make a prediction like that.  It was a good article.  Good comments by Gleeman as well.