Article: Regression Candidates in 2016

[Ted Schwerzler]

Going into the 2015 season, the Minnesota Twins had a handful of players that were going into prove-it seasons. With youth starting to show up at the major league level, it would be up to newly appointed first-year manager Paul Molitor to get the most out of his team. Pushing for a playoff spot and winning more than half of the team's games, Molitor did that, but regression still showed up.Probably most notable in terms of regression was Danny Santana. As a 23 year-old, Santana burst onto the scene manning the center field for Minnesota. Slashing .319/.353/.472 in his first big league season, the Dominican Republic product had made a great first impression. Unfortunately the numbers were inflated due to a ridiculous .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

 

Santana was a candidate for extreme regression this past year, and it hit hard. He played 91 games for the Twins but slashed just .214/.241/.291, ending the season on the farm. Kennys Vargas saw a similar strong 2014 finish turn into an ugly 2015. Vargas followed up a .274/.316/.456 line in 2014 with a .240/.277/.349 line in 2015. He spent time at both Double- and Triple-A getting into just 58 big league games.

 

With the Twins looking to improve upon a promising 2015 season, there are a few players that regression could get to. For Molitor in 2016, it's about having the impact be felt at a significantly lesser level than the regression of Santana, Vargas, or even Kurt Suzuki last year.

 

It's a very curious situation when it comes to Miguel Sano, but there's some reason to believe he could experience regression in year two. After slashing .269/.385/.530 in his first 80 big league games, Sano set the bar high. His 18 homers and 52 runs batted in were more than impressive. What causes some concern is the 119 strikeouts, a pace that would have blown by the team record and likely would have led the big leagues.

 

Like Santana before him, Sano had a high BABIP (.396) a year ago. What is different however is that it's probably sustainable. With a 43.2% of balls being of the hard hit variety, Sano makes any batted ball he puts in play a difficult ask to field nearly half of the time. He also hit line drives at just under a 25% clip a season ago. Both of those numbers should bolster a respectable BABIP throughout his career.

 

Looking into Sano's strikeouts, there are two numbers the Twins slugger should be most focused on. In 2015, Sano swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 25.9% of the time. He also swung and missed at 15.7% of pitches. Should the slugger be able to decrease either of those marks, the expectation that his power will trump the whiff rate will remain extremely high.

 

Another guy with some uncertain peripherals going forward is standout left fielder, Eddie Rosario. After bursting onto the scene in a fashion very similar to Santana, it was Rosario who would have been the nicer asset to see moved instead of Aaron Hicks. Unfortunately, most teams around the big leagues see the same red flags when it comes to the Puerto Rican.

 

In his first big league season, Rosario put up a nice .267/.289/.459 slash line. The ugly number in there is that middle one. Rosario struck out 118 times in 122 games while drawing just 15 walks. For all of his advanced metrics ranking extremely well defensively, it's the offensive ones that scream a warning.

 

Rosario is far from a hulking hitter. Sure he collected 15 triples and slugged 13 homers, but he hit the ball hard just 29% of the time. On top of that, calling Rosario a free-swinger would be a massive understatement. Across his 2015 at-bats, Rosario swung at pitches outside of the strike zone a ridiculously 46% of the time. Despite chasing far too often, it is worth noting that he swung and missed just 14.5% of the time, a percentage less than that Sano's.

 

It's probably not in the cards for the Twins to completely redefine Rosario's approach. The task for Tom Brunansky though is going to be getting Rosario to develop a more professional approach in the box. Rather than chasing the marginal pitches, Rosario needs to sit and wait for his pitch more often. The walk rate absolutely has to increase; continuing on the current trajectory would provide even more cause for concern.

 

Going forward, there's little reason to believe that Miguel Sano is anything but a contributor for the Twins. Rosario remains a much riskier proposition in that department. Sano's ceiling is only going to be limited by the strikeouts he can shave off, while Rosario may have hit his without a retooled approach at the plate.

 

The Twins don't have as many major causes for concern in the regression department as they did a season ago, but both Sano's and Rosario's 2016 approach is one worth monitoring.

 

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[TNLooky2015]

Mike Trout led the league in SO during his MVP season in 2014 and was able to improve last year by 26 SO.  Sano and Rosario both should have the capabilities to improve in the SO department.  

 

The questions become:  

1) Are they waiting to see what happens when they get to camp in terms of SO improvement "plan"?

 

2) What is the plan for all our SO prone / regression prospects / players (Arcia / Santana / Buxton / Mauer / Rosario / Sano & Vargas)?  

 

3) How do the coaches help prospects / players with such SO issues in the off season is the bigger question?  Drills / Mental Therapist / Standing in Box during Bullpen sessions (off season) / Etc.

[Boom Boom]

I would add Duffey to the list of regression candidates.

 

I guess I don't expect him to be a front-runner for the Cy Young.

[Vanimal46]

 

I would add Duffey to the list of regression candidates.

I guess I don't expect him to be a front-runner for the Cy Young.

Agreed. He flew up the system last season and looked pretty awesome in a SSS of 10 MLB starts. I can see him regressing if that curve ball of his isn't as sharp as last season. 

[mikelink45]

I agree with all these players and the potential for Regression, but what about our half season players - Dozier and Perkins.  How will they handle putting them together for a full 162?

 

[blindeke]

Prediction: Rosario > Hicks over the next three seasons.

[Mauerpower]

Just read this interesting article about an insane homer Rosario hit last year and his ability/curse to hit balls way outside the strike zone.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/

[ToddlerHarmon]

With you, blindeke. Contact is the special skill that is hard to improve. If he learns even mediocre patience, Rosario has great potential

[Dantes929]

What made Santana such a regression candidate was that his 2014 major league season so far outperformed his minor league history.   I agree that Duffey is a regression candidate but he would basically be replacing Pelfrey who might have been a regression candidate himself.    Santana for a full year and Duffey replacing Pelfrey is a good bet for improvement, IMO.  

[Steve Penz]

It will be really nerve-racking to see how Rosario unfolds.  OBP is low but BABIB is reasonable so it should be more sustainable.  If they push him to have more control at the plate will that hurt numbers because it makes him less aggressive?  

[Willihammer]

Just read this interesting article about an insane homer Rosario hit last year and his ability/curse to hit balls way outside the strike zone.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/

That is incredible. But the Gameday graph tells the other side of the story, with an 0-1 swing at a sinker below the knees. The 46% OOZ swing rate is ridiculous. So much room to improve there. He could be a really good player if he does.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would add Duffey to the list of regression candidates.

 

I guess I don't expect him to be a front-runner for the Cy Young.

My first thought as well.

[jimmer]

I'm a huge Sano fan like most Twins fans, but if he maintains a .396 BABIP it'd be the highest career BABIP in the history of the game.

 

I expect regression from Mauer could very well happen.

 

Duffy is a prime candidate as stated.

[ashbury]

Just read this interesting article about an insane homer Rosario hit last year and his ability/curse to hit balls way outside the strike zone.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/

My Beer League softball swing!

[REPETE]

I'm not as concerned with Rosario as others.  Sano's time in the majors started red hot, then slowed.  Did pitchers "figure him out"?  Rosario was up for most of the year, and every time he hit a slump, the "pitchers figured him out" line came up often, but then he'd go on a hitting streak & bring the avg right back up.  

Agreed that his K rate is ridiculous, but I have high hopes he can trim that a bit.  I don't think he'll ever walk much, but better pitch selection will raise the Avg, and that's the only way he'll raise his OBP.  

[DaveW]

IMO Rosario won't regress, he didn't even put up that good of numbers last year anyways (sub 100 OPS+) I would be worried if he stays the same personally and am looking for some solid progression from him.

 

As far as regression candidates:

Escobar

Dozier (that second half worries me)

Duffey

Milone

Gibson

Perkins (injury)

Murphy

Sano (could be a growing year, where he doesn't have a .900 ops, but Something closer to .880 or so)

Edited December 18, 2015 by DaveW

[FunnyPenguin]

I think Dozier'll come back strong and Rosario will struggle early.

[jimmer]

I think it's important to remind people that regression isn't a positive or negative.  A player who is normally very good and has a bad year is a perfect example of a regression candidate for the following year.

[Monkeypaws]

I think Rosario wil have a much better career than Hicks. The latter's hit tool vs. rightys will always be suspect

[jimmer]

I think between Rosario and Hicks, Hicks has the better career. 

[TheLeviathan]

Hicks has repeatedly proven an inability to field consistently or hit righties.  Rosario is going to have a much longer, much more successful career.

 

Hicks may be lucky to have a job in 4-5 years.

[jimmer]

Rosario hasn't proven he can have a .290 OBP even with a .332 BABIP.  Hicks had .323 OBP with a .285 BABIP.  Let's see what happens to the OBP of the impatient Rosario when his BABIP comes down.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Hicks has repeatedly proven an inability to field consistently or hit righties.  Rosario is going to have a much longer, much more successful career.

 

Hicks may be lucky to have a job in 4-5 years.

Hicks has his warts, but so does Rosario, I am a HUGE Hicks fan but I think Rosario has the better career offensive wise, but to state that Rosario is going to have a much longer and much more successful career is just a guess at best.

However to say Hicks may be lucky to have a job in 4-5 years is ridiculous, the guy is a stud in CF and can run the bases. If Revere can last 6+ seasons Hicks will easily be able to as well.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Rosario hasn't proven he can have a .290 OBP even with a .332 BABIP.  Hicks had .323 OBP with a .285 BABIP.  Let's see what happens to the OBP of the impatient Rosario when his BABIP comes down.

 

Whew....well thank goodness OBP settles it all.

 

Hicks had about 90 PAs where he was pretty damn good.  The other 600 he was basically a bat on a shoulder that people were walking.

 

Rosario drove the ball.  Yeah, he needs to be more patient, but that wart compared to the host of warts Hicks has seems rather insignificant.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Hicks has his warts, but so does Rosario, I am a HUGE Hicks fan but I think Rosario has the better career offensive wise, but to state that Rosario is going to have a much longer and much more successful career is just a guess at best.

However to say Hicks may be lucky to have a job in 4-5 years is ridiculous, the guy is a stud in CF and can run the bases. If Revere can last 6+ seasons Hicks will easily be able to as well.

 

Just by running himself into walls he may cut his career short.  His fielding is really overrated and I love his career comps on Baseball reference - not a damn one of them was a significant player.  For fun, two of his comps are Clete Thomas and Jason Repko.  Yeah, that Repko.

[DaveW]

 

Just by running himself into walls he may cut his career short.  His fielding is really overrated and I love his career comps on Baseball reference - not a damn one of them was a significant player.  For fun, two of his comps are Clete Thomas and Jason Repko.  Yeah, that Repko.

The bbref career comps are pointless in Hicks case, Hicks was rushed to the majors by the Twins and basically floundered until they finally sent him back down. His first 500 so at bats in the majors are close to irrelevant at this point as he never should have been up to begin with.

 

Mike Cameron is also on his comp list as well...so those lists are pretty pointless.

Edited December 19, 2015 by DaveW

[TheLeviathan]

 

The bbref career comps are pointless in Hicks case, Hicks was rushed to the majors by the Twins and basically floundered until they finally sent him back down. His first 500 so at bats in the majors are close to irrelevant at this point as he never should have been up to begin with.

 

Mike Cameron is also on his comp list as well...so those lists are pretty pointless.

 

The point is that all this optimism people have over Hicks is for the equivalent of Jason Repko with a different name.  That's who he has been.

 

If you were truly basing this on what he's done and not his prospect hype, you'd have an incredibly weak case.  

 

Give me the guy that drives the ball that needs to work on pitch recognition over the guy that rarely hits the ball with any authority every day of the week.

[sane09]

 

If Revere can last 6+ seasons Hicks will easily be able to as well.

Revere always was a Big-League hitter.

So far, Hicks has not been a Big-League hitter.

I have known Hicks since he was a 13-yr-old.

He is a good kid and I really hope the hitting will develop for him.

[Rosterman]

Last year the offense was...in simple words...close to a disaster. High strikeouts amongst candidates, most players regressed in the stats that people see flashed on the scoreboard. The Twins did do better, it seemed, offensively in moving runners and scoring runners when it mattered.

 

Three major factors:

 

(1) How players prepare themselves in the off-season to keep their natural skill sets sharp.

 

(2) How coaching works with the players in a correct and understandable way to eliminate some faults.

 

(3) Line-up construction and how the team works together on the field. 

 

Right now, it is a team. There are no individual stars. Mauer came back to earth. Sano will have to be put in a fielding position which may change his game-to-game mindset. Park has to adapt to major league pitching. The Twins have a lot of solid players, but they still are strikeout prone (especially Arcia, Sano and Rosario -- the outfield -- and Dozier isn't far behind).

 

It will be the same group as last year minus Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks. The Twins need a Buxton at the top of the lineup, but like Hicks, will he be ready. The Twins would love to find a permanent place for Arcia, but where does that put Rosario if Sano is also in the outfield. Plouffe is almost too valuable, at this point, to rid yourself of with the questions surrounding Park, Sano and Arcia...but a hard decision has to be made to keep him longer term or make sure you get value for him out of spring training or, at the least, mid-season.

 

Sano shined as a slugger. He has the potential to be more than that. Rosario did what was necessary. He's what you wanted, or expected, for a corner outfielder, but was far from spectacular (think Jacque Jones). 

 

The coaching staff and manager have their work cut out for them, considering that don't see Suzuki getting better and Murphy being adequate at the most.

 

What will be the perfect Twins lineup and CAN it come out strong to start the season.

 

I expect the rotation to be solid though far from spectacular, with short leashes on Nolasco and Milone. But I see the potential for ALL starters giving us at least six innings so educe the concern for an across the board strong bullpen.

 

I think the division will be stronger overall, with Chicago making some strides, Cleveland getting their youngsters into full form, and Detroit making at least one more move to position themselves as contenders.

[stringer bell]

The Hicks-Rosario discussion is interesting since they are such different hitters. Hicks is more patient, but despite being the bigger man, he doesn't drive the ball as often. Rosario is spooky aggressive, but I loved the results last year.

 

One thing to remember Hicks was "rushed" to major leagues at 23 years of age. Rosario made his debut at the same age and he missed a half season of development with a suspension. Eddie did a lot more in his age 23 season than Aaron.