What about Kershaw and Felix? Aren't they locks?

 

If they stopped pitching today, no, not locks. As good as they've been, both need a few more years minimum to even be on the Koufax consideration, let alone to start putting up career numbers worthy of consideration.

 

Concur. Neither get in based on current career.

Kershaw, in particular, is obviously on pace though.

 

He's also the type that seems to want to work hard enough to keep improving along the way to end up there eventually. Kershaw's my favorite pitcher to watch in baseball currently, but he's still got a few years before he's worthy of Cooperstown.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how much wins are devalued in future HOF voting.

Not just because W's have taken a beating from statheads, but also because the continuing decline in starter usage is making 300 W's harder and harder to achieve.

 

Yet, I think Glavine got a lot of his support because he was able to get to the 300 wins. Sure, there was some "big 3" narrative, but I honestly think without 300 wins, he's watching Maddux and Smoltz give speeches and waiting to get in with Mussina and Schilling. So, I see wins possibly working both ways for HOF voters in the next decade or so until we work those guys completely out of voting population.

Edited December 13, 201510 yr by biggentleben

If Kershaw pitches two more years anywhere close to how he has so far, he could retire after 10 years and make it first ballot HOFer.  2.43 ERA (FIP 2.62), 154 ERA+, 3 CY Youngs (and 5 times in top 3 of CY Young voting).4 times leading in ERA, 3 times ERA+, 3 times leading in Ks, 2 times leading in Wins, 2 times in FIP, 4 times in WHIP. 7 straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00.  He's a lock.

 

I think Felix could very well be a lock too.

Edited December 13, 201510 yr by jimmer

Even without being a DH and without PED, his numbers are too low for a HOFer. They are lower that Edgar Martinez who is also a DH and never had PED issues. So there is no way he is in.

Using WAR for DH and SP is flawed, Ortiz has 500 HR was top 5 in MVP voting 5 years in a row (with one win), has 9 all star games and lead the Red Sox to 3 titles while posting a .969 ops in postseasons.

 

Ortiz is a near lock to become the first DH in the hall of fame.

 

Who cares about PED's he was never suspended, everyone took them, and he still puts up 35+ bombs a year.

Too many will make if from my perspective.  Kershaw, despite dismal post season results is the only pitcher I see from this list that I would consider at this time.  Bumgardener has too short a time on time - I remember when Lincecum was the man - that did not last long enough and he is no where near  - and thata is the frightening aspect of all careers.  Verlander has the same issue.  He was the man, now he is a shell (like Mauer). 

 

I agree on these five hitters and I hope Harper and Trout will keep their health and make it too.

Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
David Ortiz

 

Add Molina, we are started to recognize catcher value.  Buster Posey can be there in a few years.  And if not for concussion I believe Mauer would have made it.  A few years ago would have had him with the top five, but this is the danger of projections - health affects more than pitchers.

 

Beltran will get a long of talk, but he has never been at that caliber for any sustained period. 

 

It is a good discussion and I am a small Hall person - I would like a year to vote out some of the clunkers that Frankie Frisch maneuvered to get in and some others for whom I can find no reason. 

Good discussion. Let me add that if Mauer somehow won another batting title, he would take another step towards the Hall. I know it's unlikely, but not more so than Cuddyer and Morneau winning batting titles.

According to BBref, Mauer has a 47.8 career WAR. The average of the 13 catchers in the HOF is 52.5.

 

He should easily get up over 2200 career hits and maintain a BA over .300. His three batting titles as a catcher should be enough to get him in. Plus, there's still the chance that he turns it around and have another season batting over .300 or something.

Beltran was an outstanding offensive and defensive CF most of his career.  He has a career OPS+ over 120, and has accumulated 66 WAR.  IMO, he deserves to be in. If he cares about getting in (and I'm not sure every player does) he is hurting his chances by continuing to play.

Edited December 13, 201510 yr by jimmer

 

Beltran was an outstanding offensive and defensive CF most of his career.  He has a career OPS+ over 120, and has accumulated 66 WAR.  IMO, he deserves to be in. If he cares about getting in (and I'm not sure every player does) he is hurting his chances by continuing to play.

I'm not opposed to Beltran making the HOF because he will have over 2500 hits, 400 HRs, and 300 steals, with good defense.

 

The argument against, though, is that he wasn't really regarded as one of the "best of the best" players currently playing, as evidenced by him only having two top ten MVP finishes.

Too many will make if from my perspective.  Kershaw, despite dismal post season results is the only pitcher I see from this list that I would consider at this time.  Bumgardener has too short a time on time - I remember when Lincecum was the man - that did not last long enough and he is no where near  - and thata is the frightening aspect of all careers.  Verlander has the same issue.  He was the man, now he is a shell (like Mauer). 

 

I agree on these five hitters and I hope Harper and Trout will keep their health and make it too.

Albert Pujols

Ichiro Suzuki

Miguel Cabrera

Adrian Beltre

David Ortiz

 

Add Molina, we are started to recognize catcher value.  Buster Posey can be there in a few years.  And if not for concussion I believe Mauer would have made it.  A few years ago would have had him with the top five, but this is the danger of projections - health affects more than pitchers.

 

Beltran will get a long of talk, but he has never been at that caliber for any sustained period. 

 

It is a good discussion and I am a small Hall person - I would like a year to vote out some of the clunkers that Frankie Frisch maneuvered to get in and some others for whom I can find no reason.

 

I left Ichiro off my list, but upon further reflection you might be right.

Beltran's been very good, but I don't think he is HOF worthy. His defense in center was very good, but he's now played about five years in right and hasn't been that good as a right fielder. Another question is that he isn't an all-timer for any franchise except maybe KC. He's played for something like six teams in his career.