Article: The Next Massive Twins Contract

[Ted Schwerzler]

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone with Terry Ryan and the Twins going home empty-handed. It wasn't unexpected, albeit a bit frustrating. Regardless, a lot of money was spent the past few days and it got me to thinking. I'm on record saying that Bryce Harper is going to get a $500 million contract. Then it got me to wondering, who's in line for the next Twins payday, and how big will it be?Let's address the elephant in the room first. Yes, the Twins paid Joe Mauer $184 million for eight years of his talents. Yes, they were absolutely right in doing so. No, Mauer is not the same player he was, and unfortunately, the value was sapped significantly when Mauer was forced to move from behind the plate. Yes, moving Mauer from catching was the correct and sensible move. No, he will never and should never catch again. No, the Twins aren't hamstrung by that contract. No, payroll does not come from attendance or new stadiums, it comes from lucrative TV deals (something the Twins don't have). Yes, Minnesota can afford to spend in the future.

 

OK, deep breath. I think we covered all of the points of contention there. So now who's next in line for a big cash dump? Let's think ahead here. He's not a free agent until 2022, and he won't even hit arbitration until 2019, but Miguel Sano is going to get paid.

 

To make this exercise a bit more simple for ourselves, let's assume that the Twins don't extend Sano early (though they should look into doing so). By the time Sano hits free agency in 2022, he will be 29 years old. He'll have played in the big leagues for seven seasons and likely be established as one of the best power hitters in all of baseball.

 

In looking at what kind of player the Twins may be signing at the age of 29, we need to take into consideration what some of Sano's numbers may look like at that point. In his first 80 games at the major league level, Sano launched 18 homers and drove in 52 runs. On a 162 game basis, that's 36 long balls and 105 runs batted in. Six seasons of that type of production, plus his 2015 performance would have Sano somewhere around 230 homers and 680 runs batted in. Factor that Sano can be relied upon for 20 plus doubles a year, and an OPS north of .800 and you have a legitimate top five or ten power guy.

 

By means of providing a complete assessment of talent, Sano's fWAR should be considered. In just 80 games during 2015, Sano gave the Twins 2.0 fWAR (a 4.05 mark across 162 games). That number would have been 20th best in the AL in 2015. Also, considering Sano added no value by playing the field, it's an even more impressive mark.

 

Looking at some of the massive contracts given out to power hitters lately, we can try to fill in the thought process for Sano. At the age of 25, Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins. Averaging 4.15 fWAR thus far in his career, Stanton cashed in. Harper is a few years from free agency, but as mentioned, is likely to get $500 million. He'll be 26, and has averaged 4.85 fWAR thus far in his career. Both of those players are in a tier above Sano, especially considering their defensive value.

 

Trying to find something more comparable, we should probably look a bit higher up the age scale. In fact, we may not need to look any further than this year's free agent class. Enter Chris Davis. The Orioles slugger is on the market at the age of 29 (turning 30 in March). At the moment, Davis has launched 203 homers and driven in 549 runs. He's recorded 168 doubles and owns an .835 career OPS. Essentially, Davis is everything the Twins hope Sano will be.

 

With that in mind, the talk is that Davis is being floated contracts in the $150 million range. His strikeouts are a problem, but he's shown some positional flexibility playing in the outfield as well as first and third base (sound familiar?).

 

It seems possible, accounting for inflation, that the Twins will offer Sano a seven-year, $170 million contract at the age of 29. The average annual value would check in at $24.3 million (just above Mauer's $23m AAV). Should he exceed his current production, or the market dictate it, I could see the price going up to somewhere around $190-200 million as well. Minnesota would have their superstar locked down until his age 36 season, and would spare itself from the scary cliff that is the age closing in on 40.

 

Right now, Miguel Sano is working on losing some weight and getting used to the outfield. Should things go smoothly for both him and the Twins over the next several seasons, this interesting little exercise could absolutely be the future that awaits the exciting Dominican slugger. Only time will tell.

 

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[Ncgo4]

I would be shocked if the Twins would even consider a renegotiation until his weight is in order and remains so for a pt least a full year.

[Linus]

The interesting thing about some of these mega contracts isn't so much the money but the opt outs. It really embeds risk to the club . It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

[bluechipper]

I'm hoping for several 40 and 50 HR seasons, so I'll predict an 8 year, $225M contract.

[Madre Dos]

I hope he gets every DIME.  He's a wonderful kid who has had HUGE family responsibilities since he was 16 years old. I just called him a kid again .  6'4" and 270# - I guess he's not a kid anymore.

 

[bluechipper]

 

I hope he gets every DIME.  He's a wonderful kid who has had HUGE family responsibilities since he was 16 years old. I just called him a kid again .  6'4" and 270# - I guess he's not a kid anymore.

I love listening to interviews that he does after games. He seems really driven to be great, and he seems like a great guy too.

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't like the Twins chances of retaining him if they wait until he's 29. Heck, me and my "25 under 30" philosophy might be against it. I'd have to think if he keeps hitting, he will be extended and any kind of free agent projected contract would be moot.

 

If he is hitting well with very few question marks, I'd be advocating for an extension come July.

[Seth Stohs]

I hope the Twins go with the strategy that they have used many times in the last 10-15 eyars. Long-term contracts to keep guys a year or two past free agency. 

 

They did that with Radke, Hunter, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Nathan, Span, Santana, 

 

The difference is that instead of 4 year, $32-40 million deals, they will likely have to do something like 5 years, $85-100 million deals.

 

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

I believe that an opt-out to a contract, especially to pitchers, is a foolish move. If you are willing to make a long term commitment then the player needs to do the same.

 

I'm all for players getting a share of the pie, but I always think poorly of GMs who sign those sorts of contracts.

[DaveW]

I believe that an opt-out to a contract, especially to pitchers, is a foolish move. If you are willing to make a long term commitment then the player needs to do the same.

 

I'm all for players getting a share of the pie, but I always think poorly of GMs who sign those sorts of contracts.

The thing is with opt outs, if one team offers it, other teams will have to as well. It's the reality of the situation these days and is what it is.

 

No way does Heyward sign with the Cubs without the opt out, no way does Grienke sign with the Dodgers the first go around without the opt out etc

 

It's the reality of the situation when you are dealing with elite players still in their primeX

Edited December 13, 2015 by DaveW

[DaveW]

I hope the Twins go with the strategy that they have used many times in the last 10-15 eyars. Long-term contracts to keep guys a year or two past free agency.

 

They did that with Radke, Hunter, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Nathan, Span, Santana,

 

The difference is that instead of 4 year, $32-40 million deals, they will likely have to do something like 5 years, $85-100 million deals.

Depends on when they would strike the deal, with Sano I'd like to see them be even more aggressive and approach him with a Longoria type deal (but more money), Buxton would be next, and from there I wouldn't worry too much.

[jimmer]

This is an interesting if not premature exercise. I imagine IF (BIG IF) any of our players end up being worth of a massive contract, it will be Sano and I imagine it will be done by whomever replaces TR.

Edited December 13, 2015 by jimmer

[Linus]

The thing is with opt outs, if one team offers it, other teams will have to as well. It's the reality of the situation these days and is what it is.

 

No way does Heyward sign with the Cubs without the opt out, no way does Grienke sign with the Dodgers the first go around without the opt out etc

 

It's the reality of the situation when you are dealing with elite players still in their primeX

Yep, my question, which I should have clarified, is whether enough clubs will get burned to see it change in the future.

[DaveW]

Yep, my question, which I should have clarified, is whether enough clubs will get burned to see it change in the future.

I don't think so, if the player opts out after 3 or 4 years and doesn't resign with the original team I imagine they are a bit frustrated, but happy that said player played well enough for 3-4 years where he could ultimately go back on the FA market. Does that make sense sorta?

 

Like if the Twinssigned Heyward and it killed it for 4 years the needed a new contract...it would suck kinda, but it would be nice he "played great" those 4 years.

Edited December 14, 2015 by DaveW

[Rosterman]

It will be interesting to see not only Sano, but how Buxton and Berrios fit into the rich longterm contract picture. At this point, the guys would have to dominate! But Sano could be the next Ortiz, in the least! If he wants to play to age 40, watch out.

 

Then, again, what will Mauer's NEXT contract cost the Twins if Joe wants to play out his career with the Twins and to, say, age 40!