Article: How Brett Lawrie's Trade Altered My Thinking

[alarp33]

 

Vargas had a .910 OPS in the minors last year and had some success in MLB in 2014. He still has plenty of time to put it together. Any team would claim him given the opportunity.

 

A 25 year old DH w/ ML experience had a good OPS in AA last year? Shocking.  

 

The rumor is Vargas may be going to Japan, so I'm not sure how that jives with "any team would claim him"

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah, but a return greater than that still doesn't mean it would be a good return, or a trade worth making.  I imagine the Reds are feeling this on the Frazier market too.

 

That very well could be the case. Depends on what your expectation is for a return. My expectation is to acquire a quality bullpen arm for Plouffe. If that happens, I will be happy. 

[Bill Brown69]

There is a reason the Yankees won so much in the late 90's. They made a deadline deal for Lance Berkman to be a bench bat. Lance Berkman was a multiple year all-star but before an injury to someone else he was a bench bat for the Yankees.

 

There is no roster crunch unless the players or manager make one. Having one of Park,Mauer,Arcia,Plouffe,Sano on the bench is not a bad thing.

 

Pitching wise it is the exact same. Having both Berrios and Duffey start at AAA is a good thing because the Twins WILL have to have 7 starters at least over the course of 162 games and while it would be great to stick Nolasco and Milone in AAA there are rules.

Santanna

Gibson

Hughes

Milone

Nolasco

All on a short leash because of Duffey and Berrios in AAA. If they are not willing to go on DL for a phantom injury then cut them because they are not into winning.

[ThejacKmp]

The real thing here too is that we have no idea what the trade deadline will look like.

 

IF the Twins have a log jam at the break (no one gets injured, Park is good, Buxton seizes CF, Plouffe has a good season and Kepler is chomping at the bit to be in the majors), that’s a great problem to have. And if any of those don’t happen (e.g. injuries or Park struggling or Mauer bottoming out) they have a nice insurance policy with Plouffe all year.

 

The Twins also can likely get a similar deal to what they’d get right now at the trade deadline and perhaps something even better – if there’s a contender at the deadline with a hole at 3B or the need for a right handed bat, they will likely be willing to pay more than they are now.

 

Unless the Twins can get a great package for Plouffe, there’s no reason not to keep him. Having too many guys is not the worst problem and there's a solid chance Trevor is just as valuable or even more valuable at the deadline.

[dgwills]

 

A 25 year old DH w/ ML experience had a good OPS in AA last year? Shocking.  

 

The rumor is Vargas may be going to Japan, so I'm not sure how that jives with "any team would claim him"

Alright maybe not any team. How's Chris Colabello doing now days? How did dropping David Ortiz because of his bad defense work out? No I'm not saying Vargas has the same level of success Ortiz did, but I do remember a lot of people telling me how he would never be successful in MLB. Some hitters take longer to develop and there's no reason to give up on someone with that kind of talent.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm impressed with the ability the A's have had to make that Donaldson deal only get worse!

 

Honestly, that might end up being one of the worst trades of the decade at this rate.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm impressed with the ability the A's have had to make that Donaldson deal only get worse!

 

Honestly, that might end up being one of the worst trades of the decade at this rate.

 

Not as long as Dave Stewart is a GM......but ya, it's not looking ideal. 

[prouster]

 

It would be great to stick Nolasco and Milone in AAA there are rules.

Santanna

Gibson

Hughes

Milone

Nolasco

 

 

I agree with most of what you said, although I don't think Molitor should feel any pressure to slot Nolasco into the rotation. Why not try him out in the bullpen (which is what they should have done with Pelfrey, instead of the really weird decision to send Milone to AAA and have Pelfrey start)? Nolasco wouldn't be the first reeling starter to rediscover his stuff in the pen.

 

I'm also not sure how a thread about the White Sox acquiring Brett Lawrie turned into bashing the Aaron Hicks trade?

[IndyTwinsFan]

 

Buxton in center is the only option, we need his glove, especially if we do not have excellent fielders in the corners.  I have heard talk that Plouffe is actually slower than Sano and therefore less ready for OF conversion. 

 

I expect to see Rosario, Buxton, Sano in the outfield and I think it will be fine.  It is not Plouffe who creates the log jam - it is Mauer as we have known for two years and will see for two more.  The losers are none of these current players but rather Vargas and Arcia who actually might have more trade value than Plouffe, especially when paired with Milone and Nolasco - CALLING SAN DIEGO!!

I think you're spot-on with the Mauer viewpoint.   The problem is, while TR and the rest of the front office may well recognize that point (we'll likely never know for sure), I'd be absolutely shocked if they took any constructive action on their own.   Joe Mauer would need to take the initiative here, but I think he has too much professional pride to do that, at least right now.

So now, we're in this conundrum.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm impressed with the ability the A's have had to make that Donaldson deal only get worse!

 

Honestly, that might end up being one of the worst trades of the decade at this rate.

It does look pretty bad, although at this point, Brett Lawrie's last two arbitration seasons weren't going to make much of a difference either way.  Saving ~$10 mil might actually help the ledger for Oakland, at this point, more than playing Lawrie would have.

 

The A's also still have Franklin Barreto from the deal, SS prospect, all the way up to #18 on MLB.com's midseason top 100 update (just ahead of Berrios at the time).

 

It's extremely unlikely to ever be a win for Oakland or even a wash, but Barreto could save it from historical ignominy.

Edited December 10, 2015 by spycake

[dgwills]

 

I'm impressed with the ability the A's have had to make that Donaldson deal only get worse!

 

Honestly, that might end up being one of the worst trades of the decade at this rate.

That sequel to moneyball is not looking to good. Probably ends a substance abuse problem.

[Mike Sixel]

As pointed out above.....they still have the #18 overall prospect from that trade. If he's a legit starting SS for years, it isn't even close to the top 25 worst deals ever.

[awinter]

 

 

There's just too many unknowns to go around throwing out final judgments. No one knows if Park will translate to MLB (in which case Sano can DH and Arcia/Kepler will in OF), if Sano can play a passable OF (in which case they have a stacked lineup), if everyone will be healthy (right now the Twins can take an injury at 1B, 3B, DH and OF and not miss a beat - that's a nice thing!) or how Molitor will handle days off (there's room to minimize Sano in the OF with regular days off for Park, Plouffe and Mauer). The fact is that Plouffe gets you nothing useful now so you might as well keep him and deal with the nice problem of having a surplus of guys you want to play.

Nice post- this is the most level-headed thing I've read on this subject.

[Boom Boom]

What were the A's asking for? It could be very different than what the Twins would want for Plouffe. I doubt the Twins would ask for a couple ho-hum minor league pitchers.

 

Bear in mind that for all the problems they've had, the Athletics have been pretty good at identifying pitching talent. Better than the Twins have, certainly. Maybe Billy Beane knows something about these guys that the White Sox and us don't.

[Bill Brown69]

 

I agree with most of what you said, although I don't think Molitor should feel any pressure to slot Nolasco into the rotation. Why not try him out in the bullpen (which is what they should have done with Pelfrey, instead of the really weird decision to send Milone to AAA and have Pelfrey start)? Nolasco wouldn't be the first reeling starter to rediscover his stuff in the pen.

 

I'm also not sure how a thread about the White Sox acquiring Brett Lawrie turned into bashing the Aaron Hicks trade?

I will agree that I got ahead of myself a little. I do think that it should be May and Nolasco competing for the rotation spot with a possibility of Berrios or Duffey just blowing the doors off and getting a slot but I think the proven track record May has will "win" him the bullpen job and if Nolasco and Milone are healthy and haven't imploded in spring training they should be on the roster initially, but like I said with a very short leash although I wouldn't give a whole lot of leash to any of the starters esp if somebody is dominating in AAA.

IF and that seems to always be a big IF they can keep somebody "stretched out" in the pen then it might make sense if they were that 6th starter ie Nolasco but it never seems like they can get over 3 innings out of a guy who is on the roster.

I would also have a different thought about May if we had one more quality arm in the pen, but he would have to be someone with May type stuff and I don't see that happening.

[jsteve96]

 

I can see this line of thinking. At the same time, isn't this the highest Plouffe's ceiling, in terms of value in a trade, will ever be?

you don't just trade players because their ceiling is at its highest point.. put the best team together you can and plouffe helps this team

[prouster]

 

I will agree that I got ahead of myself a little. I do think that it should be May and Nolasco competing for the rotation spot with a possibility of Berrios or Duffey just blowing the doors off and getting a slot but I think the proven track record May has will "win" him the bullpen job and if Nolasco and Milone are healthy and haven't imploded in spring training they should be on the roster initially, but like I said with a very short leash although I wouldn't give a whole lot of leash to any of the starters esp if somebody is dominating in AAA.

IF and that seems to always be a big IF they can keep somebody "stretched out" in the pen then it might make sense if they were that 6th starter ie Nolasco but it never seems like they can get over 3 innings out of a guy who is on the roster.

I would also have a different thought about May if we had one more quality arm in the pen, but he would have to be someone with May type stuff and I don't see that happening.

 

I'm with you that Berrios should start the year in Rochester. He doesn't have anything left to prove, really, but keeping him down for the first few weeks a la Kris Bryant would save the Twins a lot of pain and money down the road. Service time doesn't even need to be the primary reason for keeping him down. There really isn't an obvious place for him on the roster yet. (On a related note, I'm right there with you, as well, that some of the starters should be on a short leash.)

 

Personally, I like the idea of Duffey making the rotation out of spring training. I think he showed he has the stuff to make it as a mid-rotation arm, at the very least. That bender of his is something to behold. In my mind, his presence on the roster makes it so the bullpen is the only obvious place for Nolasco. Unless, for some odd reason, a team is willing to trade for him.

[jsteve96]

 

If Vargas was outrighted off the 40 man today I'm not even sure he would be claimed by someone. 

 

I'm sure San Diego is waiting with bated breath for that phone call where TR offers them Vargas, Arcia, Milone and Nolasco.  Haha, what single player in that deal would San Diego want?

I would guarantee Vargas gets picked up. Younger than Pinto, played better in MLB and Minors than Pinto and Josmil was selected by the 11th team on waivers. Arcia- not far off a 20 homer season in the MLB and amazing minor league stats every year but last and you think he's done? take a look at J.D martinez.. Tommy Milone: an ERA under 4 and he's left hand. value wouldn't be very high but plenty of teams would pick him up. Ricky Nolasco, all it would take is 2 good months and his value would be back to normal. He is a national league pitcher, i could see an NL team liking the idea of him if the Twins paid some of his contract

[spanman2]

 

Does anyone know why the Twins wouldn't look at putting Plouffe in the OF instead of Sano?

He has become an above average fielding 3b.  Sano had struggles in the minors at times with his fielding.  The Twins are not strong at SS and putting another below average/unproven person at 3b from a fielding perspective would not be a huge gamble.  You know what you have in Trevor at this point of his career/what he is capable of.  If he can provide a slightly higher OBP/BA even better!

[DocBauer]

1*  Trades are apples and oranges. I don't know that you can say with any true certainty that that is "all" the Twins would get for Plouffe. However, apples and oranges both being fruit, you can see situational parameters that bare out possible similarities. If that is the case, then a similar trade return for Plouffe would be a waste and we are better off keeping him. At least for now. (and I'm a known Plouffe fan) But I have been in favor of moving him to clear room for Sano. It looks like it's just not prudent to do so. 

 

2* I haven't been in favor of Sano moving to the OF not because I don't think he can't do it, but how long will it take? Do we move him back to 3B in a year or two? What happens when Buxton and Kepler are both ready? Not to mention Walker? I'm not going to scream bad roster management, as rosters can become fluid for various reasons, and it's never a bad thing having "too many" good players. But there are challenges here, to be sure.

 

3* NOT going to get in to a Mauer debate for the up-teenth time, but, if he doesn't rebound towards the player he has been in the past, the truth is, both offensive and defensively, his presence in the everyday lineup compromises the best team that could be placed in the field/lineup. Would the Twins be bold enough to make him a part time/reserve player?

 

4* I still have real hope for D Santana. I think he could be a really nice role player. I think it wouldn't be out of the question he develops in to a top of the order hitter as a full time LF one day. (for the Twins or someone else) But I don't believe he is the CF to begin the 2016 season for the Twins if Buxton really and truly is headed for Rochester to begin the year. The powers that be simply can not afford to make the same mistakes they have made previously in regard to CF...sitting around waiting and hoping doesn't cut it. I don't know if Rajai Davis is the answer, or if some of the SD "trade a bad contract for another bad contract" rumors for Upton are an option. But especially with Sano in the OF and learning, we need a legit CF option.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

 

 

4* I still have real hope for D Santana. I think he could be a really nice role player. I think it wouldn't be out of the question he develops in to a top of the order hitter as a full time LF one day. (for the Twins or someone else) But I don't believe he is the CF to begin the 2016 season for the Twins if Buxton really and truly is headed for Rochester to begin the year. The powers that be simply can not afford to make the same mistakes they have made previously in regard to CF...sitting around waiting and hoping doesn't cut it. I don't know if Rajai Davis is the answer, or if some of the SD "trade a bad contract for another bad contract" rumors for Upton are an option. But especially with Sano in the OF and learning, we need a legit CF option.

 

I'm curious what in Danny Santana's major league or minor league track record makes you think he would be a good option down the road as a top of the order Left Fielder.  In 192 Major League games he has walked 25 times and struck out 166

[DocBauer]

 

I'm curious what in Danny Santana's major league or minor league track record makes you think he would be a good option down the road as a top of the order Left Fielder.  In 192 Major League games he has walked 25 times and struck out 166

Great question!

 

Santana's quad slash as a minor leaguer stands at .276/ .319/ .399/ .717. His batting average has always been solid. And while the OB% hasn't been great, it is 43% points above his BA. That shows potential, especially considering he's never been exactly old for any level he's played at. Quite the opposite actually. The power is a little lax, but we heard about power/pop potential on the way up that might develop. And in fact, his 2014 rookie year he certainly showed some of that potential. He also hit double digits in SB for all 6 milb seasons.

 

In his rookie 2014 season, while he did maintain an almost unsustainable BA and BBIP AVG, he held a 34 point higher OB%. 34 is, of course, less that 43, LOL. It's all fancy way of saying that despite being young, despite being a bit undisciplined, he HAS SHOWN previously in the minors, and to a lesser extent his rookie season in 2014, that he isn't just a SO machine. Looking at his athleticism, looking at numbers, looking at what he was capable in his rookie ML season, it's not hard to project some pop, see his speed, and believe he has the potential to be a decent hitter with an OK OB% and the potential for better with experience and just a little more discipline. 

 

And if he simple can't do the job daily at SS, he wouldn't be the first one to move to the OF and see his game take off. (kind of like it happened when he played mostly OF in '14)

 

[DaveW]

I think Santana can have a solid career but not as a top of the order bat. Mostly as a super utility (rich mans nick Punto) who can be a stop gap at SS if need be (rich mans Nick Punto)

[markos]

Another datapoint regarding Plouffe's trade value: the Angels just aquired Yunel Escobar from the Nationals for Trevor Gott.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/nationals-trade-yunel-escobar-angels.html

[mikelink45]

 

How on earth do Vargas and Arcia have more trade value then Plouffe?

Arcia was a mess last season and Vargas has AAAA written all over him.

They are young, they will not cost a lot and we seem to have made a decision that they are not wanted.  I would scoop them up if I was another team.  Plouffe should have trade value, but recent trades do not make ok third basemen a valuable commodity and the Twins seem to have no inclination to trade him.

[mikelink45]

 

If Vargas was outrighted off the 40 man today I'm not even sure he would be claimed by someone. 

 

I'm sure San Diego is waiting with bated breath for that phone call where TR offers them Vargas, Arcia, Milone and Nolasco.  Haha, what single player in that deal would San Diego want?

I just through San Diego out there because they seem clueless the last two years.  Of course I disagree with your conclusion on Vargas, but we can only speculate. 

[David HK]

 

Does anyone know why the Twins wouldn't look at putting Plouffe in the OF instead of Sano?

Like a bunch of other folks, I just don't understand this either.  Plouffe is nothing more than adequate at 3rd, and Park is simply going to have to DH.  So why not get Poof into the OF, where he's already had experience, and not move your prize kid to an unfamiliar position at the same time he's still trying to learn to hit ML pitching?  WTF, why make him do 2 tough tasks at the same time?

[Riverbrian]

There is no reason to trade Trevor Plouffe. Unless you get something back that improves the Twins in 2016.

 

Trading Plouffe for prospects only weakens the Twins in 2016. The Twins need to think about strengthening in 2016 at the major league level.

 

I see the logjam... We all see the logjam but logjam is just a fancy word for depth. (French I think).

 

Thinking in terms of starter only is short sighted... It's a long year... 162 games (hopefully more). Someone is going to struggle... Someone is going to get hurt. Having Plouffe and Sano and Park and Mauer is a good problem to have.

 

I'm glad Terry Ryan isn't thinking... "3B...1B... DH... Thats 3 spots and 4 players. Well... Someone has to go". Because that would exhibit the creativity of a turnip. A good manager will figure out how to get people at bats. I'm hopeful and quite sure that Molitor isn't saying to Terry Ryan. "Gosh... This is too hard... I've got 4 players for 3 spots... I didn't sign up for this... Nowhere in my contract does it say I'd have to make tough decisions every single day.

 

Do not trade Plouffe for prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I see the logjam... We all see the logjam but logjam is just a fancy word for depth. (French I think).

 

It's only "depth" if you don't move your big, power hitting stud of a young player to the outfield. 

 

Plouffe isn't the problem, the problem is Mauer.  Unfortunately that means Plouffe is the one that should move around, not Sano.

[DaveW]

 

It's only "depth" if you don't move your big, power hitting stud of a young player to the outfield. 

 

Plouffe isn't the problem, the problem is Mauer.  Unfortunately that means Plouffe is the one that should move around, not Sano.

Here is what I don't understand, if you really had no plans on trading Plouffe, why on earth go out and sign a DH in Park? If you don't sign Park, you can easily just slot in Sano at DH for another season. Now you truely have a quagmire as you are trying to force Sano into the OF (while also more or less getting rid of Vargas and/org Arcia as well)

 

If they trade Plouffe, I really like the Park signing, if they keep Plouffe around, I like it quite a bit less (unless park puts up a .880 OPS of course!)