Article: How Brett Lawrie's Trade Altered My Thinking

[Seth Stohs]

It seems like a minor trade, and it probably is in the big picture, but when the White Sox acquired 3B Brett Lawrie from the Oakland A’s on Wednesday, it spoke volumes to me. How does that trade alter my opinion on the Twins trading Trevor Plouffe? Well, you’ll just have to read on to find out.It was another trade that went through at baseball’s Winter Meetings. Some transactions are big. Others, not so much. But when I saw that the Oakland A’s had traded third baseman Brett Lawrie to the White Sox in exchange for RHP JB Wendelken and LH Zach Erwin, I thought it was a bit noteworthy.

 

I did a little research, checking out the two prospects that the A’s will receive from Chicago, and it speaks volumes to why Terry Ryan has been so adamant on not trading Trevor Plouffe.

 

JB Wendelken is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher. He was originally drafted by the Red Sox, but he went to the White Sox during the 2013 season. He was given an opportunity to start at High-A in 2014, but he went 7-10 with a 5.26 ERA in 27 starts. So, this year, he was moved to the bullpen and did well in AA but struggled in AAA. That’s solid for a 22-year-old. He’s a solid relief pitcher prospect, but he’s certainly not considered a top prospect.

 

Zach Erwin was the White Sox fourth-round pick in 2015 out of Clemson. He’s got some projectability and had a nice pro debut. Between rookie league ball and Low A, he went 2-2 with a 1.34 ERA in 40.1 innings. He walked seven and struck out 30. He is also not a top prospect.

 

Both of these guys are OK prospects, but they’re not going to pitch in the big leagues any time soon, and their upsides are considered marginal.

 

So, what does this have to do with the Twins? Well, we entered the offseason thinking – maybe even assuming – that Terry Ryan would trade Trevor Plouffe. In the last two weeks, he has been adamant about the Twins having no plans to trade Plouffe. He said it at Byung Ho Park’s press conference, and he has reiterated it to the media gathered in Nashville this week.

 

Maybe it was just me, but even with him saying that so strongly, I was about 50-50 on whether or not the Twins would trade their talented third baseman.

 

After seeing what the A’s got for Lawrie, it’s pretty clear that Ryan likely didn’t get much more offered in his discussions.

 

Do I think Trevor Plouffe is better than Brett Lawrie? Yes. No question.

 

However, Lawrie is three-and-a-half years younger. He’s still just 25 for another month. That likely matters in trade discussion.

 

Of course, I don’t have any information on what discussions went like when Terry Ryan took those phone calls from other GMs asking about Plouffe. We don’t know what range of player/prospect was being offered. However, I think we can make some legitimate assumptions based on what Billy Beane got from the White Sox for Brett Lawrie.

 

As we have said all along, the Twins do not have to trade Plouffe. Miguel Sano can play in the outfield. It’ll take some learning and adjustments, but he can do it, at least for the short term. Plouffe will only make between $7.5 and $8 million in 2016 which is not an issue for the Twins’ budget. He’s got another year of arbitration-eligibility next offseason.

 

Who knows? Maybe I’ll post this article and an hour later the Twins will have traded Plouffe. But, although I get the desire for Sano to play third base, his natural position, if the Twins only acquire a package similar to the Lawrie package, I would be very disappointed.

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I can see this line of thinking. At the same time, isn't this the highest Plouffe's ceiling, in terms of value in a trade, will ever be?

[Squirrel]

 

I can see this line of thinking. At the same time, isn't this the highest Plouffe's ceiling, in terms of value in a trade, will ever be?

Probably, which is why I'd be even more disappointed to only get that for him.

[Squirrel]

 

I did a little research, checking out the two prospects that the A’s will receive from Chicago, and it speaks volumes to why Terry Ryan has been so adamant on now trading Trevor Plouffe.

 

Did you mean 'not'? Or is Ryan now adamant on trading him?

[hybridbear]

Does anyone know why the Twins wouldn't look at putting Plouffe in the OF instead of Sano?

[amjgt]

 

I can see this line of thinking. At the same time, isn't this the highest Plouffe's ceiling, in terms of value in a trade, will ever be?

 

His ultimate value might be two more years of arbitration followed by a QO,

[prouster]

 

Does anyone know why the Twins wouldn't look at putting Plouffe in the OF instead of Sano?

 

My guess is they like Plouffe's 3B defense more.

[DaveW]

I'm not sure why this is a surprise or has ever been a surprise, league average players who are in arb years don't fetch big returns in the trade market. Plouffe isn't going to fetch some huge return, heck, Hicks, a cheap player with gold glove defense at a premium position and a TON of upside only got us a back up catcher. I'd be happy with any sort of "lottery ticket" prospect for Plouffe or any RP that is better then Fien (a low bar, I know)

 

If Ryan was so adamant about not trading a league average player like Plouffe, that's fine, but he never should have went out and clogged up the DH spot even more.

 

Make no mistake about it, moving the 285 pound Sano to OF is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

If Plouffe isn't traded, Park is at DH, Mauer at first and Sano starts the season in RF? That is an a F for roster management.

Edited December 10, 2015 by DaveW

[alarp33]

 

Does anyone know why the Twins wouldn't look at putting Plouffe in the OF instead of Sano?

 

Probably because Plouffe is a much better 3B than Sano, and Sano would likely be just as good of OF as Plouffe. 

 

If they really are all in on keeping Plouffe, I would be checking the market and see what you can get for Rosario... Sano to LF, Buxton CF, Kepler RF

[DaveW]

 

 

His ultimate value might be two more years of arbitration followed by a QO,

Hopefully not for the Twins though.

[DaveW]

 

 

Probably because Plouffe is a much better 3B than Sano, and Sano would likely be just as good of OF as Plouffe. 

 

If they really are all in on keeping Plouffe, I would be checking the market and see what you can get for Rosario... Sano to LF, Buxton CF, Kepler RF

It is more than likely that neither Buxton and Kepler won't be ready for the Majors until June or later.

 

What is the plan until then? Just roll with Sano+Santana+Arcia in the OF and lose every game 10-4?

[alarp33]

 

It is more than likely that neither Buxton and Kepler won't be ready for the Majors until June or later.

 

What is the plan until then? Just roll with Sano+Santana+Arcia in the OF and lose every game 10-4?

 

I wouldn't consider Santana as the starting CFer for a second, so no.  I would roll with Sano, Buxton and hope Kepler is ready by May1.  Buxton will likely be worth multiple wins with his glove and base running, even if the bat takes a month or two.  

[DaveW]

 

I wouldn't consider Santana as the starting CFer for a second, so no.  I would roll with Sano, Buxton and hope Kepler is ready by May1.  Buxton will likely be worth multiple wins with his glove and base running, even if the bat takes a month or two.  

Did we learn nothing from Hicks first couple years in the big leagues? Rushing a guy up to the majors whose bat is not ready is a recipe for disaster for their development and confidence.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

Did we learn nothing from Hicks first couple years in the big leagues? Rushing a guy up to the majors whose bat is not ready is a recipe for disaster for their development and confidence.

 

Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton are not comparable prospects so I'm unclear why you think thats valid.  Why don't you look at how the Angels handled Trout, while Buxton won't ever reach his level, that's the type of prospect Buxton is.  

[DaveW]

 

Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton are not comparable prospects so I'm unclear why you think thats valid.  Why don't you look at how the Angels handled Trout, while Buxton won't ever reach his level, that's the type of prospect Buxton is.  

Having someone take at bats in the majors while they are clearly outmatched is not a wise choice. Buxton was completely over-matched last year in the bigs. Unless he shows some serious improvement against major league pitching in spring training, starting him day one is a recipe for disaster not only in his development but for the Twins ability to actually win baseball games.

[bluechipper]

I had the same reaction as Seth when I saw what Lawrie's return was. I have moved on to being in favor of staying where they are with the current plan and seeing how Sano looks in the outfield.

 

Now on the Lawrie trade, what is the upside for the A's trading him right now? Because if it's to open up playing time for Jed Lowrie, then I really question the move.

[alarp33]

 

Having someone take at bats in the majors while they are clearly outmatched is not a wise choice. Buxton was completely over-matched last year in the bigs. Unless he shows some serious improvement against major league pitching in spring training, starting him day one is a recipe for disaster not only in his development but for the Twins ability to actually win baseball games.

 

You think it will effect the Twins ability to win games, who is your CFer then?  Santana? He definitely looked ready to hit Major League pitching last year, right?  And he's not half the CFer Buxton is

[DaveW]

 

You think it will effect the Twins ability to win games, who is your CFer then?  Santana? He definitely looked ready to hit Major League pitching last year, right?  And he's not half the CFer Buxton is

 

I wouldn't trade Rosario in the first place.
I never would have traded a perfectly good CF in Hicks for a backup catcher to begin with either.

I never would have forced a square peg into a round hole (Sano to the OF) to begin with either.

[dgwills]

I was following that trade too. It's important to note that the A's were likely getting rid of Lawrie due to his negative presence in the clubhouse. Either way though, the White Sox got him for basically nothing. Pretty disappointing. I'd rather just keep Plouffe than make a trade like that.

[mikelink45]

Buxton in center is the only option, we need his glove, especially if we do not have excellent fielders in the corners.  I have heard talk that Plouffe is actually slower than Sano and therefore less ready for OF conversion. 

 

I expect to see Rosario, Buxton, Sano in the outfield and I think it will be fine.  It is not Plouffe who creates the log jam - it is Mauer as we have known for two years and will see for two more.  The losers are none of these current players but rather Vargas and Arcia who actually might have more trade value than Plouffe, especially when paired with Milone and Nolasco - CALLING SAN DIEGO!!

 

[DaveW]

 

Buxton in center is the only option, we need his glove, especially if we do not have excellent fielders in the corners.  I have heard talk that Plouffe is actually slower than Sano and therefore less ready for OF conversion. 

 

I expect to see Rosario, Buxton, Sano in the outfield and I think it will be fine.  It is not Plouffe who creates the log jam - it is Mauer as we have known for two years and will see for two more.  The losers are none of these current players but rather Vargas and Arcia who actually might have more trade value than Plouffe, especially when paired with Milone and Nolasco - CALLING SAN DIEGO!!

How on earth do Vargas and Arcia have more trade value then Plouffe?

Arcia was a mess last season and Vargas has AAAA written all over him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Did you mean 'not'? Or is Ryan now adamant on trading him?

Yes. NOT trading him. Proofreading is important!

[alarp33]

 

Buxton in center is the only option, we need his glove, especially if we do not have excellent fielders in the corners.  I have heard talk that Plouffe is actually slower than Sano and therefore less ready for OF conversion. 

 

I expect to see Rosario, Buxton, Sano in the outfield and I think it will be fine.  It is not Plouffe who creates the log jam - it is Mauer as we have known for two years and will see for two more.  The losers are none of these current players but rather Vargas and Arcia who actually might have more trade value than Plouffe, especially when paired with Milone and Nolasco - CALLING SAN DIEGO!!

 

If Vargas was outrighted off the 40 man today I'm not even sure he would be claimed by someone. 

 

I'm sure San Diego is waiting with bated breath for that phone call where TR offers them Vargas, Arcia, Milone and Nolasco.  Haha, what single player in that deal would San Diego want?

[Vanimal46]

I don't know how much we should be reading into the return that Lawrie got compared to what the Twins could get with Plouffe. Sure Lawrie's potential is higher than Plouffe, but he's not come close to reaching that potential in 5 MLB seasons. There's been rumblings in the last 2 organizations he's been with that Lawrie shows immature, me-first tendencies in the club house. The move looks more like desperation, let's get this guy out of here ASAP.

Plouffe's been portrayed as a "good guy" in the club house, and puts up similar stats. I would imagine the return for Plouffe is greater than 2 top 20-ish organization prospects.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was following that trade too. It's important to note that the A's were likely getting rid of Lawrie due to his negative presence in the clubhouse.

True, and Oakland has a tendency to force trades rather than seek max value, but I still think this speaks to the demand side of the 3B market.

[dgwills]

 

If Vargas was outrighted off the 40 man today I'm not even sure he would be claimed by someone. 

 

I'm sure San Diego is waiting with bated breath for that phone call where TR offers them Vargas, Arcia, Milone and Nolasco.  Haha, what single player in that deal would San Diego want?

Vargas had a .910 OPS in the minors last year and had some success in MLB in 2014. He still has plenty of time to put it together. Any team would claim him given the opportunity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would imagine the return for Plouffe is greater than 2 top 20-ish organization prospects.  

Yeah, but a return greater than that still doesn't mean it would be a good return, or a trade worth making.  I imagine the Reds are feeling this on the Frazier market too.

[DaveW]

 

Vargas had a .910 OPS in the minors last year and had some success in MLB in 2014. He still has plenty of time to put it together. Any team would claim him given the opportunity.

I'm not sure "any team" would claim him.

 

I don't know how much we should be reading into the return that Lawrie got compared to what the Twins could get with Plouffe. Sure Lawrie's potential is higher than Plouffe, but he's not come close to reaching that potential in 5 MLB seasons. There's been rumblings in the last 2 organizations he's been with that Lawrie shows immature, me-first tendencies in the club house. The move looks more like desperation, let's get this guy out of here ASAP.

Plouffe's been portrayed as a "good guy" in the club house, and puts up similar stats. I would imagine the return for Plouffe is greater than 2 top 20-ish organization prospects.  

Agreed 100% on this.

Apples to Oranges comparison.

Sort of like if the Nationals trade Papelbon + 8 million for some scrub, that doesn't mean Perkins would receive the same offer.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

The big issue behind all of these discussions is the Twins seem intent on messing with their best hitter from last year.

 

And it's not because they have an All Star veteran in-place at 3B or 1B or DH. They have a league-average third baseman, a below-average first baseman, and an untested 29-year-old FA at DH. On a smart team with a plan, those are the guys that get shifted around or traded to make room for the stud prospect, not the other way around.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm not sure why this is a surprise or has ever been a surprise, league average players who are in arb years don't fetch big returns in the trade market. Plouffe isn't going to fetch some huge return, heck, Hicks, a cheap player with gold glove defense at a premium position and a TON of upside only got us a back up catcher. I'd be happy with any sort of "lottery ticket" prospect for Plouffe or any RP that is better then Fien (a low bar, I know)

 

If Ryan was so adamant about not trading a league average player like Plouffe, that's fine, but he never should have went out and clogged up the DH spot even more.

 

Make no mistake about it, moving the 285 pound Sano to OF is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

If Plouffe isn't traded, Park is at DH, Mauer at first and Sano starts the season in RF? That is an a F for roster management.

 

Hicks is not a Gold Glove defensive player. He has never won a Gold Glove and would not be considered for it this year. He also has some upside but I would not call it a TON. He has hit for about 2 months at the major league level and struggles mightily against righties (70% of at bats are against righties). He has potential but was by no means an elite prospect.

 

John Ryan Murphy is not a backup catcher. He a young prospect catcher who looks to split time with Suzuki before eventually taking over the job full time. He's not going to be Joe Mauer but most teams don't have that. He seems like he has a decent chance to be an average catcher who is under team control for 6 years and maybe has some upside to be more than that. That's not insignificant.

 

Hold off on saying that Sano can't play OF and handing out grades. The Twins can cover a lot for him with Buxton and Rosario and you never know how a guy will play out there. Cuddy was never amazing but he was smart and had a good enough arm to mitigate some of the range out there.

There's just too many unknowns to go around throwing out final judgments. No one knows if Park will translate to MLB (in which case Sano can DH and Arcia/Kepler will in OF), if Sano can play a passable OF (in which case they have a stacked lineup), if everyone will be healthy (right now the Twins can take an injury at 1B, 3B, DH and OF and not miss a beat - that's a nice thing!) or how Molitor will handle days off (there's room to minimize Sano in the OF with regular days off for Park, Plouffe and Mauer). The fact is that Plouffe gets you nothing useful now so you might as well keep him and deal with the nice problem of having a surplus of guys you want to play.

 

Have we all forgotten Jason Tyner? Remember the Tyner! Remember the Tyner!