Article: Twins Likely Won't Add, Could Lose Players In Rule 5 Draft

[Seth Stohs]

On Thursday morning in Nashville, baseball’s Winter Meetings will formally conclude with the Rule 5 draft. Teams with fewer than 40 players on their 40-man roster are able to make selections. The Twins have 40 on their roster (at this time) so they will not be able to make a selection in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft without a move. However, it is possible that they could lose a player or two to another team in the draft.The Twins have the 17^th pick in the Rule 5 draft based on their finish in the standings during the 2015 season. It’s really impossible to know which players will have already been taken, and Terry Ryan has said that most likely they would not take anyone. The Twins have been pretty clear that they are looking for left-handed relievers and a fourth outfielder in free agency and in trades, so if they do clear room and make a pick, those would be the two areas that they could consider.

 

The Twins have been pretty active in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years, selecting pitchers like JR Graham, Ryan Pressly, Scott Diamond and Terry Doyle.

 

Who typically gets selected in the Rule 5 draft? Here is a rundown of the past five MLB Rule 5 drafts?

 

2014 – 14 selections – 5 RHP, 4 LHP, 3 Infielders, 1 outfielder, 1 catcher

2013 – 9 selections – 4 RHP, 3 LHP, 1 infielder, 0 outfielders, 1 catcher

2012 – 15 selections – 5 RHP, 3 LHP, 5 infielders, 2 outfielders, 0 catchers

2011 – 12 selections – 5 RHP, 3 LHP, 3 infielders, 1 outfielder, 0 catchers

2010 – 19 selections – 12 RHP, 4 LHP, 3 infielders, 0 outfielders, 0 catchers

 

5 year – 69 selections – 31 RHP, 17 LHP, 15 infielders, 4 outfielders, 2 catchers.

 

 

Of course, five years is far too small of a sample size to make any strong opinions. Pitchers accounted for 70% of Rule 5 selections over the last five years. That’s no surprise. Of the selections, nearly half of them were returned to their previous team, and another large group stayed with the drafting team after a trade.

 

Briefly, following the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, the AAA and AA portions of the draft will take place. The public is not able to see who is on the Rochester or Chattanooga rosters, so it’s impossible to know who might be lost or made available. There’s no way to know who the Twins could add. I’m kind of pathetic, so I’ve already made a 2016 roster projection for all of the Twins affiliates. Frankly, after the Twins re-signed James Beresford and signed infielder Buck Britton, there aren’t any obvious needs in the minor leagues. Maybe a starting pitcher who could pitch in AA or AAA. Maybe another AAA outfield type, similar to Joe Benson.

 

So, let’s take a look again at who the Twins could possibly lose in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. We’ll look at the above categories.

 

 

Catchers

 

Eligible: Juan Centeno, Carlos Paulino, Michael Quesada, Jairo Rodriguez

 

It’s quite unlikely that any of these guys will be selected.

 

 

Outfielders

 

Eligible: Travis Harrison, Edgar Corcino, Joe Benson

 

Look again at the list above. Few outfielders are left unprotected. Harrison is still just 23-years-old. He was a supplemental first-round pick in 2013. Corcino is a great athlete who spent last season in Cedar Rapids, but again, these players are unlikely to be selected.

 

 

Infielders

 

Eligible: James Beresford, Levi Michael, Buck Britton, Niko Goodrum, Bryan Haar, Dalton Hicks, Aderlin Mejia, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Logan Wade, Stephen Wickens

 

The name to be most concerned about losing is likely Levi Michael. The former first-round pick has endured more than his fair share of injuries. However, when he has been healthy the last two years, he has been productive offensively. He’s played mostly second base, with some shortstop, so could a team stash him in the big leagues as a utility infielder? It’s possible.

 

Niko Goodrum is young and very athletic and there are a lot of people who still believe he will grow more into his frame. His value is that he can play shortstop, and the last couple of seasons, he has played a lot of third base and center field as well as some second base. A team could take a flyer on him developing late. That team would need to be willing to keep him all year.

 

The assumption is, and should be, that James Beresford and Buck Britton will not be taken. However, the Twins have a history of signing a guy to a minor league contract and a week later losing him to the Rule 5 draft. That was R.A. Dickey in an an unusual situation. A team looking for a utility infielder could take one of these guys too.

 

 

Left-Handed Pitchers

 

Eligible: Corey Williams, David Hurlbut, Brett Lee, Jason Wheeler, Aaron Thompson

 

All four of these guys ended last season with a championship in Chattanooga. Wheeler was the MVP of the championship series. Hurlbut, Lee and Wheeler all were part of a terrific starting rotation. Wheeler was added to the 40-man roster last year but struggled in AAA. Williams is fully healthy and he may be a guy teams are interested in as a long-term lefty bullpen guy.

 

 

Right-Handed Pitchers

 

Zack Jones, Felix Jorge, Alex Wimmers, Luke Bard, DJ Baxendale, Alex Muren, Dereck Rodriguez, Loek Van Mil, Jose Abreu, Jason Adam, Nick Anderson, Omar Bencomo, Sam Gibbons, Miguel Gonzalez, Cole Johnson, Kuo-Hua Lo, Greg Peavey, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers, Todd Van Steensel

 

Everyone is talking about Zack Jones, and I would say there is a decent chance that he is selected. If anyone will does get selected, it will be the hard-throwing right-hander.

 

Alex Wimmers and Luke Bard are former first-round picks who are available. Wimmers is already 27 and was average in the Lookouts bullpen. Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015 and pitched well in Cedar Rapids. He is a guy who could move fast next year.

 

Felix Jorge is one to watch as well. He has good stuff. He’s young. He was remarkably consistent last year with Cedar Rapids. Could a team stash him in the back of a bullpen, and how would a year in the bullpen affect him long-term? Sam Gibbons was good in the second half for Cedar Rapids as well, but the Australian is probably behind Jorge in the pecking order.

 

Could a team take a flyer on the potential of Dereck Rodriguez who has only two years on the mound under his belt? Loek Van Mil signed back with the Twins late last year. Suddenly, the 7-1, 31-year-old was throwing in the upper-90s. Could be a guy that could contribute right away. Alex Muren isn’t a name that comes up a lot when people talk about bullpen options in the Twins system. However, he is a groundball machine, and last year, he was hitting 95-97 mph with a fastball. DJ Baxendale is a guy someone could take a flyer on as a future bullpen guy. He’s got a nice slider, and the two-pitch mix could make him an effective reliever. Cole Johnson has a unique delivery. The former low-round pick had some success at the AAA level.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A team like the Milwaukee Brewers, who have just 35 players on their 40 man roster right now, could take a couple of players. As a team that isn’t likely to win in 2016, they would be OK with using up a couple of roster spots on Rule 5 picks. Other teams that may not plan to truly compete in 2016 could stash players. So, depending upon the team and the situation, the Twins do have a handful of guys that could be taken.

 

Below is how I would rank the top five players who could be taken tomorrow morning:

 

1.) Zack Jones – I’d put it at about 50-50

2.) Levi Michael – maybe 30%

3.) Corey Williams – maybe 25%

4.) Felix Jorge – maybe 25%

5.) Luke Bard – maybe 20%

 

Of course, these are just guesses. There is really no rhyme or reason to the Rule 5 draft. It will be entertaining to listen to, and I’m sure there will be plenty of discussion with the results.

 

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[Rosterman]

Yeah, a team could take a flyer on Rodriguez stashing him and hoping he becomes Santanaish. But doubtful. Wimmers and Bard would most likely not stick for the season. Better served having another minor league year under their belt (and then the Twins can give them consideration). Same with Wheeler. Any team that wanted him could have had him when the Twins removed him from the 40-man, and saved the fee.

 

Would Jones get picked? The Twins think not. Are there a dozen players out there more seserving? That is the question.

 

 

[twinssouth]

Seems like yesterday when these guys were drafted Never thought the injury bug would hit so many of them which really hurt their development Tend to agree with you Seth, except I'd probably have Levi Michael little higher odds on being selected. Being selfish, I'd like to have Jones, Michael, Williams and Bard back in the Twins system next year

[AlwaysinModeration]

Man, I hope Felix Jorge doesn't get picked. I like that kid.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Yeah, a team could take a flyer on Rodriguez stashing him and hoping he becomes Santanaish. But doubtful. Wimmers and Bard would most likely not stick for the season. Better served having another minor league year under their belt (and then the Twins can give them consideration). Same with Wheeler. Any team that wanted him could have had him when the Twins removed him from the 40-man, and saved the fee.

 

Would Jones get picked? The Twins think not. Are there a dozen players out there more seserving? That is the question.

 

I wouldn't say that the Twins don't think Jones could get pick. I'm sure they're well aware that he could get picked. But they had to make choices, some tough choices. 

[sploorp]

Once a team has one of its players picked, do they get to protect additional players or is that only in expansion?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Once a team has one of its players picked, do they get to protect additional players or is that only in expansion?

 

That's only in an expansion draft. 

[clutterheart]

The only guy I am worried about losing is Jorge.  Thankfully I don't see any national writers talking about him potentially being picked.

 

In fact I see 0 Twins being discussed as potential picks. 

[Shane Wahl]

I kinda have to laugh at the notion that this 40-man roster is so loaded to prevent protecting Jones and Michael (Nunez, Dean, Fien, and Milone are all pretty dubious).

 

Milone not for talent reasons, but for trade reasons.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Shane Wahl

[Brock Beauchamp]

Losing Michael will sting a bit. He has really turned it around the past two seasons.

[Seth Stohs]

Zack Jones is one of 6 players mentioned in the MLB Pipeline Rule 5 Preview here: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158824232/rule-5-draft-preview-from-jim-callis 

[tobi0040]

Agreed Shane.

 

Nunez is as replaceable as you can find and Fien at $2.5M was a silly tender.  I would have added Jones and Michael and said goodbye to those guys

[tobi0040]

 

The only guy I am worried about losing is Jorge.  Thankfully I don't see any national writers talking about him potentially being picked.

 

In fact I see 0 Twins being discussed as potential picks. 

 

To me Felix has the upside teams look for but is a very difficult guy to stash on your 25 man all year.  He did not have great numbers in A ball last year.

[ashbury]

Losing Michael will sting a bit. He has really turned it around the past two seasons.

Yes, and if AA outfielder Tyler Goeddel is likely the first pick (by Philly), then it seems like Michael could be on some team's radar too.

[dgwills]

I could see Michael turning into something similar to Eduardo Escobar. I'd hate to lose him. Who knows where he'd be without the injuries.

[Shane Wahl]

A team with a questionable bullpen should not risk losing a good MR type (right now, almost) because of Pat Dean, Eduardo Nunez, and not already dealing Tommy Milone.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Shane Wahl

[big dog]

Let's remember being selected isn't the same thing as being kept.  Some selected guys are sent back, or the team works out a trade to keep them so they can send them down for a while.  So if we lose someone today, it might only end up being a loan.

[Seth Stohs]

Zack Jones selected by the Brewers in the 2nd round of the Rule 5 draft.

[ashbury]

A team like the Milwaukee Brewers,

Well-called.

[J_Dobs]

 

Zack Jones selected by the Brewers in the 2nd round of the Rule 5 draft.

 

No surprise to me there. I was actually surprised that Deolis Guerra was selected.

[mikelink45]

I do not see anything here that will impact the Twins - they have a strong minor league right now so we should see some fringe players who cannot make it on to the team.  Levi Michaels is better served moving on - I do not see him becoming a player that we could not replace. 

[mikelink45]

So we lose only one player - I suspect we will not notice - even though I agree with an early posting, we had players who could have been moved if we saw a future for Jones.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was actually surprised that Deolis Guerra was selected.

A little, although it's probably like the R.A. Dickey situation -- with MLB experience, there was some competition for his services on a minor league deal.  One team decided to use a 40-man roster spot for a few months to try getting that minor league deal for themselves (assuming they either work out a minor trade or send him back in spring training).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wow, 5 teams made two Rule 5 selections.  Has that ever happened before?  Looking at the results, I see 2 teams did that in 2012, and 4 in 2010:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

[Otto von Ballpark]

Link to this year's results:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/2015-rule-5-draft-results.html