Article: Relief Role Playing

[Seth Stohs]

Terry Ryan and a large contingent of Minnesota Twins front office personnel are gathered in Nashville for the Winter Meetings. The goal for Ryan, and for every team, is to make his team better. We have written and discussed the topic ad nauseum in the Twins Daily pages since the end of the season. Some young Twins players will play a role in the Twins bullpen at some point in the near future. Today, I want to discuss two pitchers who I think could be prominent bullpen contributors right from the beginning of the 2016 season.

 

There are going to be some difficult decisions next spring for Manager Paul Molitor in his second season and the helm. There are always tough decisions, but Molitor will have a lot of really quality options. When the team has needs in-season, they will have good options for replacement.

 

You all have heard the names that some choose to joke about as getting starts in the last five years. There were three or four starting pitchers and a couple of bullpen arms at Rochester in 2015 who would have been called up quickly had this been 2012 or 2013.This isn’t 2011 through 2014 anymore. In 2015, the Twins won 83 games and were not eliminated until their 161^st game. It’s about winning now while at the same time doing what’s best for the players, short-term and long-term. Let’s discuss a couple of the young pitchers and where they should fit in 2016.

 

 

Trevor May

 

May came up in the second half of 2014 and went through some struggles. In 2015, he was set to start the season in Rochester, but Ervin Santana’s suspension pushed him into the starting rotation. May pitched all right as a starter. In 16 starts (83.1 IP), he went 4-8 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The Twins made the decision that he would move to the bullpen in the second half when Tommy Milone returned to the team from AAA. In 32 games (31.1 IP) out of the bullpen, he was 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP. His fastball velocity increased noticeably when he knew that he just needed to go an inning or two.

 

When May was moved to the bullpen, Ryan and Molitor said that he would go to spring training in 2016 with an opportunity to start again. They have stood by that as he will go to spring training with a chance. With Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson marked in ink, and May competing with Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey, JO Berrios and others for two rotation spots, May will have to be really good during spring to be in the rotation.

 

Prediction: He will be in the bullpen. With a back end of the bullpen having Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen and May, that portion of the pen should be quite strong. In fact, we saw how strong it could be when Perkins was healthy.

 

 

Taylor Rogers

 

Rogers has been a starter all his life, in high school in Colorado, in college at Kentucky and all through his minor league career since being drafted in 2012. He was the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2013. He’s been good the last two years as well. He was recently added to the Twins 40-man roster and worked 202 innings this year between Rochester and the Arizona Fall League.

 

As a left-handed pitcher, he has two really good pitches against same-siders. While right-handers hit .326/.374/.457 (.831) with 28 doubles, four triples and nine home runs off him in AAA this year, he dominated left-handers. They hit just .177/.209/.193 (402) off of him. He gave up just three extra-base hits, all doubles.

 

Reports I’ve gathered say that he has a good fastball (low-90s) and a tremendous slider. In fact, some have compared Rogers’ slider to Tyler Duffey’s curve ball. While Duffey has a fastball, curve ball and solid changeup, Rogers has not been able to turn his change into a pitch that can get right-handers off balance. If he could, he might be a mid-rotation starter, but most believe he can be a back-of-the-rotation starter, or even better out of the bullpen.

 

Prediction: The Twins have six of seven starters ahead of Rogers, and we all know that JO Berrios is coming soon. Rogers turns 25 next week and could be a major contributor out of the Twins bullpen. In fact, Terry Ryan said Monday afternoon that Rogers would go to spring training competing for a bullpen job. They could send him back to Rochester and hope that his changeup develops so that he can be a fifth starter, or they could utilize him right away as a solid lefty reliever.

 

Names like Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo might (emphasis on might) provide stability from the left side for three years, or at least parts of those three years. They’re the big names of the offseason. I have no problem with ponying up to add one name reliever that the organization feels can hold up.

 

However, rather than bringing back middling lefties like Neal Cotts or Brian Duensing, I would recommend giving Rogers a shot. Maybe they give him a month of two in Rochester to get used to working out of the bullpen and start the season with Ryan O’Rourke or Logan Darnell (who could also work in long relief). But at some point, Rogers should be in the Twins bullpen.

 

What does that leave the Twins with?

 

Closer: Glen Perkins

RH RP: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May,

LH RP: Free Agent LHP

Two Of: Casey Fien (non-guaranteed contract), Michael Tonkin (out of options), Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Ryan O’Rourke, or a second quality free agent.

Long Relief: Logan Darnell

 

 

And Taylor Rogers should be up soon, if not on the Opening Day roster. By May, we could see Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi and JT Chargois. That’s why I wouldn’t go out and acquire more than one reliever on a multi-year deal.

 

From Nick’s article today, there are three relievers worth focusing on, in my opinion, Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp and Shawn Kelley. Don’t waste time on the others. Trust guys like Taylor Rogers, let them take off in their own careers and hopefully help the Twins move up to the next level.

 

How do you think this all unfolds?

 

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[COtwin]

What happened to Ricky N??? I know we all dream he will be gone, but did I miss something?

[HitInAPinch]

 

What happened to Ricky N??? I know we all dream he will be gone, but did I miss something?

Excellent question.  What are the options for Nolasco?  Pretty sure he is untradable.

 

[HitInAPinch]

May loses out on a starting spot due to what he did in the pen last year.  Good problem to have;  not sure May would be a fan.  If we believe the Twins are contenders, I would take a close look at both Sipps and Bastardo.  Sipps is reportedly good at facing hitters on both sides of the plate.  Bastardo has the power.  Reports are $5-6M and around 3 years for either, so far.  The RP scenario could be rapidly changing. 

 

How many pitcher did the Twins have in the pen last year?  7? 

 

Perkins & Jepsen closers [got to protect Perkins], May & Bastardo 7-8, Sipps & Tonkin & Meyer/Presley longish. 

 

Too bad I'm not the GM, eh? 

[Seth Stohs]

Well, very early in the morning - or late at night - it was reported that Shawn Kelley is going to sign with the Nationals. 

[Mike Sixel]

I predict Rogers wastes away in AAA, when was the last time they converted a starter into a RP (w/o first trying them as a starter in the majors)? 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I predict Rogers wastes away in AAA, when was the last time they converted a starter into a RP (w/o first trying them as a starter in the majors)? 

 

Generally I agree with the concept of bringing them up as starters and seeing what sticks, but the Twins are now in a position to win, AND they have starting pitching depth, so with someone like Rogers who could be a really good lefty reliever, I'd prefer that to a maybe 5th starter (or 6th/7th starter in AAA). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Generally I agree with the concept of bringing them up as starters and seeing what sticks, but the Twins are now in a position to win, AND they have starting pitching depth, so with someone like Rogers who could be a really good lefty reliever, I'd prefer that to a maybe 5th starter (or 6th/7th starter in AAA). 

 

I agree, but it would be a big change from their MO. I called for him to come up and pitch out of the bullpen last year. Really, he should have been a lefty out of the bullpen last year, but for some reason, did not. 

[Vanimal46]

I see 3 names that are automatics in the pen (Perk, May, Jepsen) and a lot of question marks with the other names. I understand your position Seth to only sign 1 FA to a multi-year deal and let the internal options battle it out to fill out the rest of the spots. I'm just worried that's going to be haunt the team like last year to try and count on too many unknowns. 

I'd prefer to sign 2 FA's so the Twins can have 5 trustworthy names in the pen, and fill the other 2 spots with whoever steps up from our internal options. 

[Mike Sixel]

If the plan was to use internal candidates.....where were those guys in September of this year? Or do they magically become good over the winter?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I see 3 names that are automatics in the pen (Perk, May, Jepsen) and a lot of question marks with the other names. I understand your position Seth to only sign 1 FA to a multi-year deal and let the internal options battle it out to fill out the rest of the spots. I'm just worried that's going to be haunt the team like last year to try and count on too many unknowns. 

I'd prefer to sign 2 FA's so the Twins can have 5 trustworthy names in the pen, and fill the other 2 spots with whoever steps up from our internal options. 

 

I'm fine with two FAs, if they're good... I have pretty much no interest in the middle-of-the-pack relievers. Guys like Chad Qualls and Jason Motte and Matt Thornton ... They're as big of questino marks in my mind as Casey Fien is, so I'd prefer to give Michael Tonkin the shot at 2 months without going back and forth. I'd rather try Taylor Rogers or even Logan Darnell or Ryan O'Rourke out of the bullpen as lefty specialists. 

 

I'm not against signing free agents, but why sign bigger question marks to middling amounts when you've got other guys?

[Seth Stohs]

 

If the plan was to use internal candidates.....where were those guys in September of this year? Or do they magically become good over the winter?

 

I don't think that is/was the plan. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think that is/was the plan. 

 

You don't think that's the plan this year? What do you think it is? Because it doesn't appear to be to sign really good RP in FA either.

[sane09]

IMO - The plan for Trevor May should be to keep him as 7th-8th inning reliever until several of the "currently too young" reliever prospects become MLB-ready.

By then, hopefully Nolasco and Hughes will be gone, and May can go back into the rotation.

IMO - when Nolasco/Hughes are replaced by Berrios/May is when the Twins become SERIOUS contenders with a rotation of Santana, Duffey, Berrios, May, and Gibson.

[J_Dobs]

I am still concerned with our bullpen. We are all assuming Perk will be healthy. For the sake of argument let say Perk is on the shelf / or not preforming to the standard we have been accustomed too. Also in this case lets say by some sort of miracle May wins a spot in the rotation. We have Jepsen to closing out the game, but who will be bridging the gap? That's a very scary thought to me.

[Seth Stohs]

 

You don't think that's the plan this year? What do you think it is? Because it doesn't appear to be to sign really good RP in FA either.

 

I'm not privy to that information... But I typically don't worry about it on December 8th. Clippard, Sipp and Bastardo are still out there. 

 

And success with minor league signings and Ryan Madson from last year remind me not to get too worried about it in general. Sipp wasn't all that good until about a year and a half ago. The nature of relievers is so unpredictable. It's not like signing those big guys guarantees anything either. Signing them is as much about making the fans happy in the offseason. 

 

That said, I'd like to see them add one of those "Big 3." 

[Mike Sixel]

How good has the bullpen been lately? Not so good, right? I guess I don't worry about anything sports' related anymore, but it seems reasonable, as a fan, to wonder what they are planning at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree, but it would be a big change from their MO. I called for him to come up and pitch out of the bullpen last year. Really, he should have been a lefty out of the bullpen last year, but for some reason, did not. 

And then Rogers went to the Arizona Fall League ostensibly to pitch out the pen, but made 6 starts there instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Clippard, Sipp and Bastardo are still out there.

 

...

 

That said, I'd like to see them add one of those "Big 3." 

Seth, has something changed?  Previously you recommended a one-year deal for Cotts, Thornton, Parra, or Choate as the only FA addition:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/bullpen-strategy-what-would-you-do-r4283

 

Glad to see you seem to be endorsing a multi-year contract for a reliever, though.  Most of these guys aren't costing that much, and our pen could use the help from day 1.

[mikelink45]

Nolasco and Milone in the Bullpen.  Nolasco late innings, Milone long relief.  Then we use young arms to bridge, but Nolasco, Perkins, Jepsen at the end could work out.  Never thought about Rogers, but our Loogys have not been great and he could get a shot.  The rest of the pen ???

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And success with minor league signings and Ryan Madson from last year remind me not to get too worried about it in general. Sipp wasn't all that good until about a year and a half ago.

But the Twins inability to produce a Madson type player for the pen over the past few years is WHY the Twins bullpen got so bad last year.

 

TR has had 4 offseason since returning, and the positive FA / minor league deal assets he as added to the pen consist of Burton (who ultimately wasn't worth a modest $3.6 option last year), Fien (an arguable nontender candidate this year at an even more modest $2.2 mil arb estimate), and Boyer.

 

Also, Sipp has been fantastic for the last 2 seasons with the Astros, plus 2 seasons earlier in his career with the Indians.

 

 

The nature of relievers is so unpredictable. It's not like signing those big guys guarantees anything either. Signing them is as much about making the fans happy in the offseason. 

 

That is ridiculous.  Obviously no signing (reliever or otherwise) guarantees anything, but it can give you much better odds.

 

Signing Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana gave us better odds at a quality rotation, as opposed to acquiring Correia, Harden, Diamond, Deduno, whatever.  No guarantee, but unquestionably better odds.

 

The same principle applies to relievers.  Landing Tony Sipp certainly makes it more likely the Twins have a good or potentially even great bullpen in 2016 than just rolling the dice on Dan Runzler, Aaron Thompson, etc.  Again, no guarantee, but unquestionably better odds.

 

And it's not an either-or, the Twins can sign Sipp AND still search for the next Madson, Lowe, etc.

[blindeke]

What's the average age of the Twins' bullpen vs. some other quality teams?

[sane09]

 

And then Rogers went to the Arizona Fall League ostensibly to pitch out the pen, but made 6 starts there instead.

The Twins LH starting pitchers are Milone in MLB, Rogers a prospect at at AAA, and then drops to Gonsalves and Thorpe who are prospects in A-Ball. They NEED LH starting pitcher prospects, so Rogers is necessary as a starter and unnecessary as a reliever.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins LH starting pitchers are Milone in MLB, Rogers a prospect at at AAA, and then drops to Gonsalves and Thorpe who are prospects in A-Ball. They NEED LH starting pitcher prospects, so Rogers is necessary as a starter and unnecessary as a reliever.

 

He's totally useless sitting in AAA........but he could be a legit MLB RP. 

[sane09]

 

 

That is ridiculous.  Obviously no signing (reliever or otherwise) guarantees anything, but it can give you much better odds.

 

If you are saying that relievers' performance is NOT more unpredictable than other positions, you are disagreeing with common knowledge.

Too unpredictable or NOT TOO unpredictable is a valid argument.

Relative unpredictability compared to other positions is no argument at all.

Seth is likely just repeating what the great majority of baseball people say repeatedly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins LH starting pitchers are Milone in MLB, Rogers a prospect at at AAA, and then drops to Gonsalves and Thorpe who are prospects in A-Ball. They NEED LH starting pitcher prospects, so Rogers is necessary as a starter and unnecessary as a reliever.

I think it's a lot more important to have multiple LH relievers (for match ups) than multiple LH starters.  You can't deploy starting pitchers based on match ups, but you can with relievers, multiple times every game.

 

Also, for the record, Pat Dean is also a LH SP on the 40-man roster, and Logan Darnell was a longtime starter who returned to the role in August.  Jason Wheeler still exists too.

[sane09]

 

He's totally useless sitting in AAA........but he could be a legit MLB RP. 

Is that a definite "could"?

Either Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Graham, Jones and Hildenberger COULD be legit MLP RP's.

But NONE of them can be LH SP's.

and Rogers COULD be THAT guy.

[sane09]

 

 Jason Wheeler still exists too.

Jason Wheeler's best tool was his ability to exist at AA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you are saying that relievers' performance is NOT more unpredictable than other positions, you are disagreeing with common knowledge.

Too unpredictable or NOT TOO unpredictable is a valid argument.

Relative unpredictability compared to other positions is no argument at all.

Seth is likely just repeating what the great majority of baseball people say repeatedly.

To what degree?  They could be more unpredictable relative to other positions (possibly based on sample size, as relievers have limited usage), but still not be so unpredictable in absolute terms as to warrant a ban on multi-year contracts (a position which Seth himself seems to be backing down from).

 

If you have any links you'd like to share about it, I'd love to read them.  All I've seen so far is this study, and the Dave Cameron one it was based on, both of which were pretty limited and flawed:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20731-article-gambling-on-the-relief-market-simply-folly/

 

Overall, Twins bullpens over the past 4-5 years have turned in entirely predictable performances, so there's that.  I'd love to add an "unpredictable" reliever like Tony Sipp, Darren O'Day, etc. for a change.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Jason Wheeler's best tool was his ability to exist at AA.

Care to respond to the rest of my post?  Specifically, why you believe it is more important to have multiple LH starting pitchers rather than multiple LH relief pitchers?  Given fixed starter usage patterns and flexible reliever deployment, that seems very counter-intuitive.