Article: Roster Is A Jumble Heading Into Winter Meetings

[Nick Nelson]

Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings get underway this week in Nashville, and the Twins have sent a contingent that includes Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, Rob Antony, Mike Radcliff, and basically every other recognizable name from the front office.

 

I'd like to say that the club could use this opportunity to eliminate some question marks and solidify the state of the roster, but at this point the Twins seem inevitably destined to head into the 2016 season with a group that is, while filled with exciting potential, high on risk and low on certainty.When your big early splash in the offseason is signing an international free agent with no MLB experience and committing to him as designated hitter, you're inherently putting yourself in a precarious position. Byung Ho Park's raw power is undeniable, but the same was true for Kennys Vargas, who entered the 2014 season as the hopeful long-term DH solution.

 

But Park himself isn't the only source of ambiguity, of course. His arrival creates a tricky logjam for the Twins with Miguel Sano's natural position occupied by Trevor Plouffe, who Ryan continues to insist isn't going anywhere.

 

That insistence doesn't mean a lot right now – the GM can't very well openly admit to shopping Plouffe, both because it would diminish leverage and would leave the incumbent third baseman in an unfair spot – but whether or not the Twins make a trade, they're going to face some dangerous risks.

 

Moving the 260-pound Sano to the outfield, where he's never played before, has the potential to be a disaster, and that cannot be ignored. He might be fast for his size, but Sano does not have the speed to cover a ton of ground and that's without accounting for the lack of instincts and reactions built up from experience.

 

The two biggest decision-makers in the organization don't even seem to have agreement upon which outfield corner Sano would be best suited for, as Phil Miller laid out in his article for the Star Tribune last week.

 

"Right now, we are very comfortable … moving Sano to right," said Ryan.

 

"I would say right now, left field is what I would be leaning toward," said Molitor.

 

OK then.

 

Either way, putting Sano at a position where he has to guide his large body around vast and unfamiliar territory while trying not to collide with walls and fellow fielders increases his risk for injury. It also decreases Minnesota's chances of boasting an exceptional outfield defense, which ought to be a focal concern considering the high-contact nature of the pitching staff, and the major role that particular strength played in the success of both the Royals and Mets this year.

 

Trading Ploufe and moving Sano to third base is much less likely to have a significantly negative impact on the team's defense, but would leave the Twins dangerously thin on established right-handed bats to complement Sano at the heart of the order.

 

Brian Dozier hit 28 home runs this year but his second-half tailspin casts some doubt on his outlook. Losing Plouffe on top of Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks (who has an .808 career OPS from the right side) would leave a whole lot of pressure on Park to produce – perhaps more so than we should realistically expect.

 

Judd Zulgad of 1500 ESPN wrote an interesting column recently suggesting that trading Plouffe would be a mistake and that Park ought to be considered a prospect until he proves otherwise. I think we're already past that point, for all intents and purposes, but it's tough to argue with the core thought process there.

 

This situation is the most prominent and visible point of uncertainty on the current projected roster, but it's far from the only one.

 

Is Eddie Rosario going to play center field or a corner spot? That will be dictated by another unknown: Byron Buxton's readiness to be a major-leaguer.

 

Who will be the fourth outfielder, with Shane Robinson gone and no other internal options fitting the bill especially well?

 

Can the Twins find room in that oufield for Oswaldo Arcia? Where does Danny Santana fit? Both are out of options.

 

Who will be the go-to left-hander in the bullpen? Is Trevor May a starter or reliever? What the heck are they going to do about Ricky Nolasco?

 

The number of moving parts and unanswered questions at play leaves the Twins in an unstable state entering the heart of the offseason. We'll see how creative Ryan can get in trying to reduce his redundancies and create some clarity, but for the most part, we'll have to come to terms with the reality that this team is going to have an awful lot of things to sort out in March.

 

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[Old Twins Cap]

Sounds to me like the usual off-season debates and contests for positions.  This is MLB.  Even the Royals have their off-season question marks.  There will be more:  injuries, slow starts, clubhouse chemistry issues.

 

What do you want?  A completely decided upon roster and lineup on December 6th prior to Spring Training?

 

This is the fun part, the hot stove cooking, the intrigue that makes a season something special.

[Winston Smith]

Well done.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Agreed. Jumble. Rosario seemed at home in left field. I don't know why the Twins wouldn't just leave him there if they can.

[Rosterman]

The Twins have many questions.

 

I can argue about moving Sano to the outfield if he may be the third baseman of the future. I think it is just postering to keep value for Plouffe. I would rather move Plouffe to the outfield and then out-of-town (if his salary becomes to overbearing). 

 

Yes, Park is a suspect rookie, as is Buxton, and possibly still Sano.

 

Centerfield is an issue. Can Rosario play there if push comes to shove. Moreso than where Rosario and Sano play, where can we put Arcia. I think we do need to give him one BIG chance. He is a player to be reckoned with.

 

The joy is that we do have Kepler in the wings, maybe Walker. Benson is around (as well as Wilkerson and Palka) for emergency depth. The outfield possibilities are high...notice I said possibilities. It could also be weaker than alst year's bullpen if the soph slumps hits some people.

 

We need something in the bullpen. It can survive patchwork, thank you. But I would like to see something, or keep my fingers crossed that the young promising guys from last year's prospect list become young promising guys again.

 

There is some space on the 40-man. You always have some. Hicks, a couple of pitchers, there are at least three working spots and another couple that could open come spring training end, for sure. 

 

I'm waiting to see how the Twins market the team for 2016, to get more season tickets sold (remember, Hunter helped a lot last year). People may think the second place finish was spectacular and the last day playoff hunt wonderful, but the reality is that THERE ARE STILL many questions.

 

Some could be solved by simply eating salary and moving on, others by not offering spots to replacement value guys.

 

And then we have Joe Mauer!

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Agreed. Jumble. Rosario seemed at home in left field. I don't know why the Twins wouldn't just leave him there if they can.

 

agreed.

 

I should elaborate. If they don't think that Buxton is ready out of spring training, I have no problem with Rosario in CF. However, I wouldn't move Rosario to accommodate Sano. It's going to be a learning experience (and not easy) for Sano whether he plays LF or RF, so let him learn and let Rosario stay in LF where he makes the most sense, covering all that ground in Target Field.

[Platoon]

Good piece. You put my thoughts into a more coherent post than I can. I think the big difference between now and in 2010 is that the Twins have too many corner IF-DH guys. In the Nishy situation they had one too many middle IF, and that was Hardy, and they dumped him. Leaving them with no options when Nishy was injured. In a way OTC was correct, it's Hot Stove time, and it's fun. But for this to turn out in a manner that makes sense to any semi knowledgeable observer, TR has going to have to makes some moves he isn't known for, such as eating contracts, trading a stable veteran, and possibly more youth in the BP. One thing is for sure though! No matter what happens, everyone here on TD will be very supportive!

[HitInAPinch]

Ah, The Hot Stove League.  Gotta love it!

 

I agree with Seth:  Rosario should stay in LF.  My belief is if Buxton does something miraculous in spring training, he maybe get's the MLB call.  I would rather see him get a bit more development time on working the counts, pitch recognition, etc.  On the current 40 man roster, is there anyone besides Rosario and D. Santana for CF?

 

And I agree with Zulgad:  unless the Twins are offered a real windfall for Plouffe, Plouffe stays at 3B.

 

Here's hoping what we're hearing about Sano's winter is true.  If Sano comes to ST in great shape, all this can be blessedly moot. 

[AKTwins]

I think we sign or trade for a 4th outfielder. Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson and drew Stubbs are available. I'm in the boat that buxton will not be ready out of ST. Plus, we do not have a true lead off hitter. I would prefer dozier down in the line up. Davis makes sense for a lead off, as does Jackson, but he does not walk enough. Stubbs is the cheapest of the 3, but has the most power. He may be a nice right handed platoon with arcia. Also the Os aren't resigning Steve Pearce. He has power and would be a nice right handed platoon with arcia. On the trade front what about revere? Jays still need a starter, maybe we could ship Malone out for him.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

And I agree with Zulgad:  unless the Twins are offered a real windfall for Plouffe, Plouffe stays at 3B.

 

 

He is not good enough to warrant a windfall. Outside of the Twins he's most likely viewed as a slightly above average 3B with only a couple of years left till free agency.

 

If an offer comes with a decent prospect and/or MLB-ready reliever and catcher/outfielder/etc, then that's a market value trade and you do it.

[ashbury]

My belief is if Buxton does something miraculous in spring training, he maybe get's the MLB call.  

I don't think he has to do anything miraculous, conversely the position shouldn't be just handed to him. What it should come down to next Spring is not his numbers, but the eyeball test: is he laying off the breaking pitches in the dirt, and is he giving a good whack to pitches in his zone? Pitch recognition was THE problem, even against AA pitchers last spring, and until that's not the problem or he has no more minor league options he should spend time in AAA correcting it.

 

And because CF is a crucial position on any team, the roster will look like a jumble until a more viable Plan B is in place.

[HitInAPinch]

 

He is not good enough to warrant a windfall. Outside of the Twins he's most likely viewed as a slightly above average 3B with only a couple of years left till free agency.

 

If an offer comes with a decent prospect and/or MLB-ready reliever and catcher/outfielder/etc, then that's a market value trade and you do it.

 

Read Zulgad's article:

 

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2015/12/zulgad-twins-should-keep-plouffe-consider-park-a-prospect-until-he-proves-he-can-hit/

 

"That gets us to the primary point of this column. Unless the Twins can get a windfall for Plouffe, and that isn’t going to happen, Ryan needs to stick to his commitment that he doesn’t trade the third baseman."

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

I don't think he has to do anything miraculous, conversely the position shouldn't be just handed to him. What it should come down to next Spring is not his numbers, but the eyeball test: is he laying off the breaking pitches in the dirt, and is he giving a good whack to pitches in his zone? Pitch recognition was THE problem, even against AA pitchers last spring, and until that's not the problem or he has no more minor league options he should spend time in AAA correcting it.

 

And because CF is a crucial position on any team, the roster will look like a jumble until a more viable Plan B is in place.

 

Well, is Buxton participating in off-season baseball activities?  If so, then I agree with you. 

If not = Miraculous.   

 

[ashbury]

Well, is Buxton participating in off-season baseball activities?  If so, then I agree with you. 

If not = Miraculous.   

The human brain, and especially hand-eye coordination, already is a miracle. He suffered that concussion a year ago, and it's at least a mystery whether it has contributed to slightly degraded vision at the plate, and whether it will mend any further on its own given time. Healing's another kind of miracle.

 

I don't think anybody has questioned Buxton's work ethic. So if repetition was the solution, the problem would already be solved. My prescription for the young fella is to relax this winter, maybe play a lot of video games to unwind, keep the mind off of sliders and curveballs, go fishing and let the batteries recharge, and then come to camp and see what happens. I think I read somewhere that there's a correlation between playing baseball and being good at certain video games, so my prescription is only partly tongue in cheek.

[Nick Nelson]

 

What do you want?  A completely decided upon roster and lineup on December 6th prior to Spring Training

I don't think that's what I said, is it? My point was that I highly doubt they'll have anything close to a decided upon roster or lineup on March 6th.

 

But it will be interesting to see what TR and Co. can accomplish between now and then to trim down some of the wide-reaching uncertainty. 

[Dantes929]

 

Sounds to me like the usual off-season debates and contests for positions.  This is MLB.  Even the Royals have their off-season question marks.  There will be more:  injuries, slow starts, clubhouse chemistry issues.

 

What do you want?  A completely decided upon roster and lineup on December 6th prior to Spring Training?

 

This is the fun part, the hot stove cooking, the intrigue that makes a season something special.

I agree with this completely.    I imagine the prior decade is viewed as a time of complete stability and predictability.     Kind of ties in with the expectations poll on the other thread.    While the Twins were winning 6 division titles the predictions ran from 95 losses to 95 wins and you could always point to things do defend it depending on if you were optimistic or pessimistic.    

There was also the constant angst of is Ford or Tyner good enough to play full time, should Harris or Punto or Valencia start at third base, can we give Casilla 2nd base full time or should he be shortstop or a utility player and if so who should get those spots full time, can Slowey and Blackburn get by, can Baker stay healthy, is Pavano too old, can Liriano get back to 2006 form, can Span hold down center field since he is unproven, can Span have a good sophomore year or was last year just a flash in the pan,  can Mauer handle the wear and tear of catching and how can we possibly have Butera as backup, is Thome washed up, can we depend on Kubel knee holding up?   I ran that all as one run on sentence for a reason and it could have filled a whole page.    

This season has nothing like the question marks after 2011 season for starters and I don't think this season has to even be particularly jumbled.    I am guessing somewhere there is a chalkboard (maybe not literally)   where the Twins have the lineup, the rotation and the relief staff penciled in to start the season and everything springs off of that.    For example, it will read the starters of Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Suzuki, Park, Rosario, Buxton and Sano.    Nothing too complicated about that.   Remember it is in pencil (or rather metaphoric chalk) and will be adjusted as guys underperform and other guys over achieve.   Santana, Nunez, Vargas, Arcia and Kepler are all good guys to have as depth.    They have a similar chart for who is in the rotation and relief staff but just aren't sharing it.   I hope the rotation is May, Gibson, Santana, Duffey and Berrios but just because the Twins have Huges and Nolasco instead doesn't mean its jumbled.   We just don't know what it is.

30 seconds of searching results in an article saying the Royals are in flux because of Rios and Gordon becoming free agents, closer non tendered, need for relief depth and for a couple more starters in the rotation.     

[TheLeviathan]

Molly and Ryan being on different pages about the Sano move is interesting.

 

Is it possible they plan for Buxton to be in the minors and an outfield of Sano-Rosario-Arcia?

 

And yes, I'm cringing at that too.

[DaveW]

 

Molly and Ryan being on different pages about the Sano move is interesting.

 

Is it possible they plan for Buxton to be in the minors and an outfield of Sano-Rosario-Arcia?

 

And yes, I'm cringing at that too.

Good lord.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Molly and Ryan being on different pages about the Sano move is interesting.

 

Is it possible they plan for Buxton to be in the minors and an outfield of Sano-Rosario-Arcia?

 

And yes, I'm cringing at that too.

 

Sounds like it, unless they plan on starting a Shane Robinson type instead of Arcia.

 

That's pretty atrocious, in my view. Trade Plouffe now because that ship is about to sail. He is declining. Sano should stay at 3B/DH. End of story. Rosario-Buxton-Arcia in the OF.

I prefer trying to see Arcia in full instead of messing up the defensive alignment because of some infatuation with Plouffe. And there is a chain-effect result involving Kepler, Walker, Polanco, etc.

[DaveW]

 

Sounds like it, unless they plan on starting a Shane Robinson type instead of Arcia.

 

That's pretty atrocious, in my view. Trade Plouffe now because that ship is about to sail. He is declining. Sano should stay at 3B/DH. End of story. Rosario-Buxton-Arcia in the OF.

I prefer trying to see Arcia in full instead of messing up the defensive alignment because of some infatuation with Plouffe. And there is a chain-effect result involving Kepler, Walker, Polanco, etc.

If they trot out Sano-Rosario-Arcia opening day after having just traded Hicks, then Ryan should just resign on the spot.

 

That is inexcusable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would have been ok with Sano DHing until Plouffe left via free agency/trade. But the Twins made a good move to get Park. Unfortunately there were hidden costs in that inexpensive Park contract.

[sane09]

If they trot out Sano-Rosario-Arcia opening day after having just traded Hicks, then Ryan should just resign on the spot.

Why are you so determined to chase a harmless old man out of his only job?

[DocBauer]

I still like the idea of moving Plouffe for a quality RP and probably a prospect. It provides a home for Sano that he is already familiar with and has the keys to. 

 

Secondly, I think the Twins should move to sign a quality corner OF with a live RH bat with some pop. Scanning available FA list, it seems there are a few of interest that could do the job. This allows him to platoon in and out of the lineup with Arcia and/or Rosario. (of course, Kepler is also LH)

 

*Santana may also see time in either or both OF corners, and potentially could be a spark plug at the top or bottom of the order.

[DocBauer]

 

The human brain, and especially hand-eye coordination, already is a miracle. He suffered that concussion a year ago, and it's at least a mystery whether it has contributed to slightly degraded vision at the plate, and whether it will mend any further on its own given time. Healing's another kind of miracle.

 

I don't think anybody has questioned Buxton's work ethic. So if repetition was the solution, the problem would already be solved. My prescription for the young fella is to relax this winter, maybe play a lot of video games to unwind, keep the mind off of sliders and curveballs, go fishing and let the batteries recharge, and then come to camp and see what happens. I think I read somewhere that there's a correlation between playing baseball and being good at certain video games, so my prescription is only partly tongue in cheek.

You might be playing this partly tongue in cheek, but there's real value to what you said.

 

The human mind is an interesting and complex place. Very often, regardless if you are a writer, an artists, a researcher or athlete, simply taking time to step back and remove yourself from the equation for a time brings a different freshness of thought and attitude the next time you address your profession/craft. 

 

I don't guarantee Buxton breaks with the club, or if he does that he's 75%, or 80% or 85% plus as to his ultimate potential. But I feel his work ethic, past proven abilities, and experiences of 2015 will allow him to enter ST with a new perspective to build on. And I believe there is still a very good chance to breaks with the club based on defense, potential, and initial contributions in the 9 spot, if nothing else.

 

Of course....no backup option is a path we've been down before. And not a good one.

[mikelink45]

More logs for my fire - this is great - keep it coming.  For me it is not the fact we have so many logjams, but rather TR.  Can someone put together his track record?  Which months does he trade?  Which months does he sign free agents?  Lets analyze the key guy, not the players.  

My old time memory says TR moves fast and then sits. At the end he adds players that others pass on so he can get savvy vets to fill the voids.

[Don Walcott]

I hope Buxton does start the season with the team.  He is easily our best CF.

 

I can understand hoping he can work on his hitting at AAA.  But he can work on his hitting in the MLB, too.  He'll be around a bunch of major leaguers who can help, Brunansky, and Molitor. 

 

Even if he takes a while to hit, he helps this team with his defense and speed.  And if he can hit . . . .

[Rosterman]

 

More logs for my fire - this is great - keep it coming.  For me it is not the fact we have so many logjams, but rather TR.  Can someone put together his track record?  Which months does he trade?  Which months does he sign free agents?  Lets analyze the key guy, not the players.  

My old time memory says TR moves fast and then sits. At the end he adds players that others pass on so he can get savvy vets to fill the voids.

"gets savvy vets." That's a good one. Possibly cheap (although we sometimes overpay a bit) and available is a better description. Of course, the past few seasons the Twins have had to lobby for players that would want to play here. At least now the time might look a little more enticing and we might actually sign a savvy vet.

[Madre Dos]

I can not see Miguel in the OF.   He was finally getting a handle on 3rd.   When he played in Elizabethton, his throws to 1st were terribly wild,   My husband was taking pictures of him standing behind the 1st base dugout.   Kennys was playing 1st base.    He fielded the ball and in his attempt to throw the guy out at 1st, he hit my husband with the throw while he was standing behind the dugout.    The poor kid was worried he wasn't going to get anything to eat after the game.   Gotta love my kids.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

mikelink45

Today, 03:09 PM

 

"More logs for my fire - this is great - keep it coming. For me it is not the fact we have so many logjams, but rather TR. Can someone put together his track record? Which months does he trade? Which months does he sign free agents? Lets analyze the key guy, not the players.

My old time memory says TR moves fast and then sits. At the end he adds players that others pass on so he can get savvy vets to fill the voids."

 

The old what should he do vs the what will he do conundrum...

 

Judd is right except that holding on to Plouffe gives license to being content with the rest of of your position players too. Rosario, Arcia, Sano with Santana as your 4th outfielder is rather scary. With a 12 or 13 man pitching staff, you don't have room to carry Nunez, Santana, Arcia, and a Shane Robinson type.

 

I think TR traded Plouffe part from necessity. Lots of question marks in the lineup and pitching, but TR has kind of painted himself into a corner too. I think he has to pull off some kind of trade that includes a seasoned position player, and one that involves a pitcher

[DocBauer]

I repeat what I said in another thread, I think Sano has "enough" speed and overall good athleticism along with a strong arm that he could probably learn to be a good OF. But how long are we talking? He's got it down by the end of the year to be at least OK? Two years? What about the state of the OF defense in the meantime?

 

And what if Plouffe is let go two years from now when he is past team control? Who plays 3B then? 

 

I like Plouffe. I think it would be cool to see both he and Sano in the lineup together along with Park. I just don't know if it can really work properly.