2015-2016 Offseason Thread

[Seth Stohs]

 

It was bound to happen. Some here suggested we offer Plouffe a qualifying offer. I have no doubt he'd follow the same path as Rasmus: stay where you like it for one huge pay day and then go get a multi-year deal later.

 

When would the Twins offer Plouffe a qualifying offer? In 2 years when he becomes a free agent? I must have missed something because they don't need to offer him a qualifying offer because he's not a free agent.

[biggentleben]

 

I like Newcomb and was all for the Twins drafting him.  It sucks to lose a favorite player, but you might have a Jon Lester in return.

 

Okay, but a Lester is a guy that there's 2-3 of in the league at any given time, and usually that's not even the best guy in the league (I'd put him at least 3rd among lefties on his best day and probably 5th behind Kershaw, Sale, Price, and Bumgarner).

 

Simmons is not just a generational talent. He's doing things on defense that people have never seen done. He's Ozzie Smith with a better arm right now. Yes, an injury could quickly change that and he'd suddenly be less valuable, but if we're going down that road, which is more likely, a catastrophic injury to a pitcher or a shortstop? Simmons is a guy that provided so much value with the glove that he could actually provide significant negative value with the bat and still be worthy of a starting role. He and Aybar were both -11.7 in the ORA, but Simmons provided 23.2 DRA while Aybar was -0.4 DRA. Aybar's an average shortstop, but the difference between Simmons and an average shortstop is akin to the difference between having Bryce Harper and Nick Markakis as your RF.

[bluechipper]

 

Okay, but a Lester is a guy that there's 2-3 of in the league at any given time, and usually that's not even the best guy in the league (I'd put him at least 3rd among lefties on his best day and probably 5th behind Kershaw, Sale, Price, and Bumgarner).

 

Simmons is not just a generational talent. He's doing things on defense that people have never seen done. He's Ozzie Smith with a better arm right now. Yes, an injury could quickly change that and he'd suddenly be less valuable, but if we're going down that road, which is more likely, a catastrophic injury to a pitcher or a shortstop? Simmons is a guy that provided so much value with the glove that he could actually provide significant negative value with the bat and still be worthy of a starting role. He and Aybar were both -11.7 in the ORA, but Simmons provided 23.2 DRA while Aybar was -0.4 DRA. Aybar's an average shortstop, but the difference between Simmons and an average shortstop is akin to the difference between having Bryce Harper and Nick Markakis as your RF.

Don't you think it's a good time to deal Simmons right now though? The Braves seem to have a good replacement for him and plus they get a top 25 type prospect.

 

It sounds like Julio Teheran may be next.

[TheLeviathan]

 

When would the Twins offer Plouffe a qualifying offer? In 2 years when he becomes a free agent? I must have missed something because they don't need to offer him a qualifying offer because he's not a free agent.

 

Yes, in two years it was suggested the Twins do that rather than trade him.  

 

Rasmus establishes a line that should have been clearly seen coming: at some point even multi-year deals don't stack up to a 1 year 16M payout.  Especially for guys who stand to fetch less than half that per year on multi-year deals.

[biggentleben]

 

Don't you think it's a good time to deal Simmons right now though? The Braves seem to have a good replacement for him and plus they get a top 25 type prospect.

 

It sounds like Julio Teheran may be next.

 

Albies isn't ready yet. Maybe not in 2017 either. He's 19 and hasn't even played at high-A yet. I think he would have been fast tracked there before his injury last year to end his year.

 

They have passable guys like Daniel Castro who wouldn't make a fool of themselves there over a full season, but the Braves rebuild that was sold to fans was that they would have a big run on young pitching taking their early lumps in the majors and then a rush of hitters ready to explode as those pitchers were ready to dominate the major league level. Having an other worldly defensive middle infield (Jace Peterson at second base is a candidate to move to shortstop now, and his glove work is exceptional as well for a guy in his first year at the keystone position) would help those young pitchers in their transition to the bigs for sure, especially with the "ground and pound" (ground balls and pound the zone) philosophy of the Braves pitching system.

[biggentleben]

 

It sounds like Julio Teheran may be next.

 

That part wouldn't be surprising, frankly. Miller can lead the rotation, and the Braves have seven guys ready for the rotation behind Teheran and Miller with Wisler, Banuelos, Minor (if he can come back), Weber, Jenkins, Foltynewicz, and Perez.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, no way they can compete in 2017 without spending some major money.

 

The Astros and Cubs were terrible 2 years ago, and the Mets lost 88 games 2 years ago......

[Vanimal46]

Ben,

 

I don't claim to know much about the Braves, so I'll defer to you who's spent the time and energy following this team. It appears they're trying to revert back to the 90's heyday where they build a stellar rotation, and just enough bats to compete. It also looks like they're going with the Astros route of dismantling the team and building a top-echelon farm system to start competing in 2017, more likely 2018. Is that the feeling you get?

Also, do you have any predictions of who else might be on the trade block? Freeman or any of the veteran OF's?

[biggentleben]

 

The Astros and Cubs were terrible 2 years ago, and the Mets lost 88 games 2 years ago......

 

Somebody has to be able to hit, though.

[biggentleben]

 

Ben,

 

I don't claim to know much about the Braves, so I'll defer to you who's spent the time and energy following this team. It appears they're trying to revert back to the 90's heyday where they build a stellar rotation, and just enough bats to compete. It also looks like they're going with the Astros route of dismantling the team and building a top-echelon farm system to start competing in 2017, more likely 2018. Is that the feeling you get?

Also, do you have any predictions of who else might be on the trade block? Freeman or any of the veteran OF's?

 

I think if someone came to them for Markakis, Maybin, Bourn, and Swisher for much more than a song, those guys would be in a different uniform tomorrow. I would imagine one of Miller/Teheran will be kept. If someone was willing to gamble on Grilli being the 2015 version before injury, he'd be gone.

 

All that said, and the other rumor from Atlanta today is that David Price and Zack Greinke are on the radar. Just, wow.

[James]

 

How about Colby Rasmus becoming the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer. History!

How about Wieters also accepting his qualifying offer!  

 

Two players in the same year!?!?!

[bluechipper]

 

How about Wieters also accepting his qualifying offer!  

 

Two players in the same year!?!?!

What is happening!?!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Somebody has to be able to hit, though.

 

I was trying to give you hope.......What? Sign an ACE? That, um, that seems odd given where they are given how teams generally act. 

 

the other thing about the next FA class, it looks pretty barren......so, ya, that might make recovering harder unless they select college hitters that move fast.

[biggentleben]

 

I was trying to give you hope.......What? Sign an ACE? That, um, that seems odd given where they are given how teams generally act. 

 

the other thing about the next FA class, it looks pretty barren......so, ya, that might make recovering harder unless they select college hitters that move fast.

 

Signing a pitcher this offseason would actually be incredibly wise business. The pitching market this year is deeper with talent than it has been in ages and likely will be again due to players typically signing extensions to avoid free agency. The hitting market is basically what it typically is year to year, but this is a borderline historic free agent pitching market.

[kab21]

The Kimbrel trade appears to be a win win for both clubs and should make it obvious what direction the Padres are going (i.e. no interest in Plouffe).  I was interested in Kimbrel for the Twins but giving up really good prospects for 3 yrs of a closer didn't seem like the best idea.  

 

I also hold on to the snowball's chance in hell that the Twins go after Zimmerman.  This is an amazing SP class of FA's.  4 aces are rarely available in the same year.  It is probably rare that 2 consecutive FA classes have this kind of talent.

[biggentleben]

Makes me sad that the Braves felt compelled to include Melvin/BJ Upton to move Kimbrel. Imagine the haul they could have received by trading him with three years of control instead of the two he has right now and without the rough patch Kimbrel experienced last year, basically his first hiccup in three years.

[biggentleben]

Forgot to add the real first trade of the offseason:

 

Mariners acquire RHSP Nate Karns, LHRP CJ Riefenhauser, OF Boog Powell

 

Rays acquire RHRP Danny Farquhar, SS Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison

[USAFChief]

Didnt take Dombrowski long to get comfortable.

[nicksaviking]

Didnt take Dombrowski long to get comfortable.

If only he'd addressed the bullpen in Detroit...

[biggentleben]

Mariners re-signed Franklin Gutierrez and Marco Estrada re-signed with the Blue Jays.

[biggentleben]

Interesting in-division trade:

 

Texas trades OF Leonys Martin and RHRP Anthony Bass to Seattle for OF James Jones and RHRP Tom Wilhelmsen

[bluechipper]

Shane Robinson signed a minor league deal with the Indians!

[biggentleben]

My Braves made a minor deal, sending OF Cameron Maybin to Detroit for LHRP Ian Krol and LHP prospect Gabe Speier.

 

A former Brave and a former Twin were swapped for one another on Friday as the Athletics acquired Liam Hendricks from the Blue Jays for Jesse Chavez.

 

Oakland signed LHSP Rich Hill

 

Seattle traded OF Ramon Flores to Milwaukee for 2B Luis Sardinas

 

Houston traded SS Jon Villar to Milwaukee for P Cy Sneed

 

Angels signed IF Cliff Pennington

 

A ton of guys got DFA'd - notable among them: Danny Hultzen, Fernando Abad, Craig Gentry, AJ Griffin, Josh Rutledge, John Axford, Rex Brothers, Wilin Rosario, JP Arencibia, LJ Hoes, Allen Webster

 

and earlier, but not mentioned here yet, Arizona traded RHSP Jeremy Hellickson to Philadelphia for RHP prospect Sam McWilliams

[kab21]

So the Braves are truly tearing it down, aren't they?  At what point does Freeman start demanding a trade?  This is ugly.

[biggentleben]

 

So the Braves are truly tearing it down, aren't they?  At what point does Freeman start demanding a trade?  This is ugly.

 

Maybin really isn't a huge surprise. In all seriousness, Simmons is the biggest shocker of them all. I wouldn't have been surprised at all to see both Miller and Teheran go this offseason, but Simmons still doesn't make sense to me. The one redeeming thing is that all rumors coming through on both Miller and Teheran include not just bats, but bats that could play in Atlanta in 2016.

[beckmt]

Maybe the Twins should take a flyer on Wilkin Rosario if he clears waviers.  Twins should have a decent shot at signing him as their is an opportunity here.

[kab21]

 

Maybin really isn't a huge surprise. In all seriousness, Simmons is the biggest shocker of them all. I wouldn't have been surprised at all to see both Miller and Teheran go this offseason, but Simmons still doesn't make sense to me. The one redeeming thing is that all rumors coming through on both Miller and Teheran include not just bats, but bats that could play in Atlanta in 2016.

I guess I was including last offseason as well.  They took a .500 ish team (with problems) and tore it down to the ground. 

[biggentleben]

 

I guess I was including last offseason as well.  They took a .500 ish team (with problems) and tore it down to the ground. 

 

The biggest issue was that the farm system was arguably bottom 5-7 in the game at the time and the Braves did not have the payroll to keep together the squad they had constructed. Heck, I'd wager the Twins have larger purse strings than the Braves at this point, likely until Liberty Media sells the team (which isn't rumored or anything, just a pipe dream at this point) or they get out of what was rated as one of the 3 worst TV deals among MLB teams.

 

They've done a tremendous job of rebuilding the farm, and before the Simmons deal, I really had trouble arguing with any deal they made. One of the biggest issues of this whole rebuild is the PR of it. Hart and Schuerholz sold it last off season as a retool, not a rebuild, discussing being ready for the opening of the new stadium in 2017 with a competitive team. Unless there's a sudden influx of cash and tremendous spending coming that no one is seeing right now, there's simply no way that is an accurate projection, and that has really upset a lot of the fanbase.

[Mike Sixel]

It's ok to tear it down......but teams need to realize that MOST fans won't pay money to watch a AAAA team at MLB prices. And, teams need to be honest about it, and not get pissed when the fans get pissed. The response by the "leadership" in Atlanta is sad.

[biggentleben]

 

It's ok to tear it down......but teams need to realize that MOST fans won't pay money to watch a AAAA team at MLB prices. And, teams need to be honest about it, and not get pissed when the fans get pissed. The response by the "leadership" in Atlanta is sad.

 

That's the biggest issue. If they'd have been honest from the get-go, this isn't an issue at all. There are now some rumors with legs that the team could be sold to a private investor rather than corporate ownership, which could be a very good thing, but any fan with any amount of foresight at all saw that the limited payroll wasn't going to allow for keeping the 2013 team together much longer, so when the slump happened in 2014, it made sense to rebuild - just don't sell the fans on a re-tool and then tear it all apart.