Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[spinowner]

I haven't had a chance to read all the comments. Yet. But I'll say this:

There are some players I want to do well because they are on a favorite team. Even AJ, back in the day. There are some players I want to do well because I just like them. Like Mike Trout, for example.

I wanted Aaron Hicks to do well for both reasons, but I'm afraid I have to let that go somehow because he now plays for the team-that-must-not-be-named. I wish he'd wound up somewhere like San Diego or St. Louis, anywhere but there.

[Willihammer]

 

Well, not the catcher upgrade I was personally hoping for but higher end options are limited and we don't know the possible asking prices. I'm satisfied Murphy can potentially fill the need for the Twins, being 24 has some upside. He'll  likely hit better than Suzuki and he'll definitely provide better defense.

 

I was starting to like Hicks more and more actually, but I was never quite convinced he was going to be able to really hold down a corner OF spot, especially with his left side struggles. I'm intrigued as to what the 2nd phase of this trade might mean from the OF perspective. With Hunter retiring, Hicks traded and Buxton almost surely to start the 2016 season in AAA, that leaves Rosario as our only returning outfielder from 2015, seems like Span/Revere 2.0. Maybe the Sano talk is more real than we think, unless a lot is still yet to come.

 

Buckle up.

 

 

Nobody got taken on this trade, neither player is, or will be, good enough for that to be the case, imo.

Eh-hem

 

http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2014/06/mlb-minnesota-twins-boston-red-sox-850x560.jpg

[nicksaviking]

 

Haha, Robinson-Rosario-Sano as your starting OF, folks. Arcia-Rosario-Sano offers some comedic elements on the other side as well. Oh, the possibilities . . .

 

For a month until Buxton and/or Kepler come up? Big deal.

 

And Robinson is a free agent.  Reports of the Twins interest in bringing him back probably will need to be re-evaluated now that the OF situation is back to uncertainty.  With how aggressive Ryan has been the offseason, I highly doubt he's going to look at Shane Robinson and think, yeah, I'll settle for that guy in November.

[jorgenswest]

Center fielders in the AL had an OPS of 738 last year. AL Catchers had an OPS of 678.

 

Hicks is a useful player. His floor is a 4th OF/right handed half of a platoon. He will probably never hit right handed pitching well enough to be a corner OF. 

 

Murphy is a useful player. His floor looks to be average defense with more offense than the typical second catcher. He does need to bat enough this year to make sure than Suzuki's contract does not vest. 

 

Two guys that belong on major league rosters with talent on the fringe of being an everyday regular at their positions. Both have enough upside to hit at league average relative to their positions.

[gunnarthor]

 

Center fielders in the AL had an OPS of 738 last year. AL Catchers had an OPS of 678.

 

Hicks is a useful player. His floor is a 4th OF/right handed half of a platoon. He will probably never hit right handed pitching well enough to be a corner OF. 

 

Murphy is a useful player. His floor looks to be average defense with more offense than the typical second catcher. He does need to bat enough this year to make sure than Suzuki's contract does not vest. 

 

Two guys that belong on major league rosters with talent on the fringe of being an everyday regular at their positions. Both have enough upside to hit at league average relative to their positions.

I think this is pretty spot on.  I do think that IF Hicks could get it all figured out, his tools would make him a better player but I think that's very unlikely.  And I do think Hicks is the more likely of the two to fall apart as well.  So it seems like a smart trade.  

[spinowner]

 

It will be years before a winner of the trade can be declared.

True for almost all trades, but particularly in a case like this where the principals are quite young.

[J_Dobs]

I have been a huge fan of this site for sometime, and I feel like its time for me to join in on the comments.

After letting the trade settle in for a few hours, I think this is a fair trade. I have been a huge supporter of Hick though his major league struggles, I wish him the best in NY. But he may end up becoming only a platoon hitter​ 4th outfielder type, or he may figure out how to hit righties someday, who knows. With Buxton's arrival his value may not have been higher.

 

With Murphy he hasn't been given a chance to play everyday, I like to reference Francisco Cervelli as he was a backup for years, and he was given a chance to play this last year. The argument can be made that Cervelli's minor league BABIP could have predicted his success. But that's the beauty of trades and the unknown.

I assume the cost of Lucroy and Norris is out of this world. We saw what a throw away backup catcher netted us in return last night, so I get the cost. A catcher is always going to be more expensive than other positions.

But worst case for both teams is they ​are both a platoon hitter at there respective position, the bright side at least we got a catcher who in his career has thrown out twice as many runner over Suzuki's numbers last year.

[T.C.]

I'm not understanding all the hate. Murphy bats .277 and people are saying that he is at best a "role player" backup guy. But Mauer bats .265 and everyone is calling for him to go back behind the dish to be our starting catcher? Not trying to start another Mauer debate but Murphy seems like a very solid option here. What am I missing?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not the route I would have taken but let's face it... Hicks is likely to be a role player himself. His troubles against RHP aren't likely to go away.

 

But overall, meh.

[spinowner]

 

This is such a god awful trade, Ryan got completely fleeced once again.

 

 

TR is on fire! 3/3 in my book.

 

Hicks was growing on me but a rebalancing was coming one way or another. They needed to do this and Murphy is as good a target as any IMO. Good trade.

Back to back posts with diametrically opposed opinions. Keeps the conversation lively!

[DocBauer]

Couple thoughts:

 

1* Kepler could join the OF at some point, possibly as early as mid-season. Personally, I would say Kepler would be an upgrade over Hicks, overall.

 

2* For now, this may open up a spot for Arcia in a corner spot and his LH power bat, as long as someone is available to spell him against LH's and provide late game defensive replacement. (Robinson?)

 

3* As "sudden" as Ryan is acting, it sure seems like there is more yet to come. And there was definatly interest...right or wrong...in keeping Hunter. Does this now open up a spot for a FA OF? Span? Aoki? Fowler? Someone that won't break the bank but help the top of the order and provide fine defense. At least until Kepler is ready. It would provide insurance for the young Buxton, and could provide a great 1-2 punch at the top of the order.

 

4* I STILL don't buy Sano to the OF.

[DocBauer]

 

people have expressed their opinion like you said they should and some got this opinion of their opinion from you 'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point.'  

This is not critical of any person, or any opinion. Simply a generalization that getting worked up one way or another at this point my actually be premature.

[jimmer]

 

This is not critical of any person, or any opinion. Simply a generalization that getting worked up one way or another at this point my actually be premature.

Except your post didn't mention anything about one way or another being silly or disingenuous.

 

'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point'

 

It was specific to the attempt to criticize point of view.  Are you saying it's equally silly and disingenuous to think this is a good trade too?

 

Just looking for clarification.

Edited November 11, 2015 by jimmer

[d-mac]

 

I was looking at the PerGame column. Suzuki saw a lot more pitches than Murphy. totals were -0.01/-0.07 extra strikes per game. That is neutral. Where are you getting 90th place? That must be for 2014. In 2015, he's ranked right behind Murphy. (That may be my fault, if I linked to 2014 instead of last year)

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819124

 

Actually Murphy was 38th, not 39th (out of 109) last year in extra strikes and Suzuki was 90th. I don't know where you're getting your data.  

[twinsnorth49]

 

Eh-hem

 

http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2014/06/mlb-minnesota-twins-boston-red-sox-850x560.jpg

.......right, didn't I say outfielder? My bad.

[Minniman]

Other than Rod, Burt, and Papi, I have never wanted an ex-Twin to do well.

 

I suspect that Washington didn't want Arnold to do well for the British either.

 

Ex-Twins are now the enemy.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Minniman

[tobi0040]

 

Not the route I would have taken but let's face it... Hicks is likely to be a role player himself. His troubles against RHP aren't likely to go away.

But overall, meh.

 

I agree, Hicks was never going to be an above average corner OF in this league.  It is a position of great depth, both in our system and easy to find on the FA market.   

 

Ryan will be an upgrade, both offensively and defesively for us. We have no depth or talent there, anywhere in our system.   So I would say on margin, I like the deal.  An OPS of even .700 would represent a huge boost for us.  It seems realistic given his career .685 OPS from ages 22-24.  I think he comes with an extra year or two of control as well.

 

A team typically goes from .500 to a contender with several smart moves that seem small.  But when you pull a few of them together you have something.

Edited November 11, 2015 by tobi0040

[DocBauer]

 

Except your post didn't mention anything about one way or another being silly or disingenuous.

 

'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point'

 

It was specific to the attempt to criticize point of view.  Are you saying it's equally silly and disingenuous to think this is a good trade too?

 

Just looking for clarification.

Yes. Thought "one way or another" was clear, as were other points made earlier in the post. If not, then I guess I chose my words poorly.

[jimmer]

 

Yes. Thought "one way or another" was clear, as were other points made earlier in the post. If not, then I guess I chose my words poorly.

Like I said, I didn't see anything in your post that said one way or another in regards to that sentence I quoted. In any event, I appreciate the clarification

Edited November 11, 2015 by jimmer

[bdhenders]

Hicks is very underrated and the last two years, he's had a better OBP than the beloved Brian Dozier who was batting second all year (big mistake down the stretch, I think, but that's another story).  This, along with  the high BABIP of Murphy inflating his average, makes me think that Terry Ryan only looks at batting average, not the other stats many organizations have deemed more important.  I know this can't really be true, but all his moves make it look like he doesn't care about any secondary statistics, or he trusts the BA over the rest and talks himself into moves that way while every other GM thinks they're getting away with a steal.

 

I hate to see Hicks go, but the Twins have plenty of options in the OF, so I'll wait and see if Murphy can be an everyday catcher before condemning the trade.  Let's just hope we don't get rid of anymore good defensive outfielders.  That's two in a row and the OF defense was a big reason the pitching staff looked better this year and we got over .500 on the record.

[Major League Ready]

 

I have to believe this means the Twins are expecting either Arcia or Kepler to play right with Robinson as the late inning defensive replacement.

 

Unless a Cuddyer reunion is on the offing. (I am so glad I'm not where people can throw things at me for making such a suggestion...pipe down over there, it's a joke...right?)

 

 

I have to believe this means the Twins are expecting either Arcia or Kepler to play right with Robinson as the late inning defensive replacement.

 

Unless a Cuddyer reunion is on the offing. (I am so glad I'm not where people can throw things at me for making such a suggestion...pipe down over there, it's a joke...right?)

I would think Kepler still starts at AAA.  This provides the Twins an opportunity to give Arcia one more shot!  Don't get me wrong.  He was been terrible last year but there is too much potential there to just flush him for nothing.

[h2oface]

 

Defensively, the Twins probably upgrade from Hicks to Buxton.

 

That is all fine for the couple of weeks at a time Buxton has shown that he can stay on the field. But when he goes down, and he will, he is replaced by who? Shane Robinson? Somebody playing out of position? Murphy getting some outfield time in? Time will tell. I will root for both Murphy and Hicks to succeed. This new Ryan splash did have a couple of rings around it, but no wake whatsoever. More like a tiny pebble in the pond than a boulder in the lake. Looks like Molitor never really jelled with Hicks. My bet is some team will, and he with them, and the Twins will have prepared another center fielder for a team that gets to go to the playoffs and Hicks with them.

Edited November 11, 2015 by h2oface

[dbminn]

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819124

 

Actually Murphy was 38th, not 39th (out of 109) last year in extra strikes and Suzuki was 90th. I don't know where you're getting your data.  

 

PerGame column. At least read the comment. Suzuki saw three times as many pitches. I also linked to statcorner and noted it in my original comment.

Edited November 11, 2015 by dbminn

[d-mac]

 

PerGame column. At least read the comment. Suzuki saw three times as many pitches.

 

I don't see a pergame column. And yes, Suzuki saw 2.49 times (not 3 times) as many pitches. But if Murphy caught 2.49 times as many pitches, then he would jump to 31st in extra strikes, making the difference between the two greater. 

[stringer bell]

 

I have been a huge fan of this site for sometime, and I feel like its time for me to join in on the comments.

After letting the trade settle in for a few hours, I think this is a fair trade. I have been a huge supporter of Hick though his major league struggles, I wish him the best in NY. But he may end up becoming only a platoon hitter​ 4th outfielder type, or he may figure out how to hit righties someday, who knows. With Buxton's arrival his value may not have been higher.

 

With Murphy he hasn't been given a chance to play everyday, I like to reference Francisco Cervelli as he was a backup for years, and he was given a chance to play this last year. The argument can be made that Cervelli's minor league BABIP could have predicted his success. But that's the beauty of trades and the unknown.

I assume the cost of Lucroy and Norris is out of this world. We saw what a throw away backup catcher netted us in return last night, so I get the cost. A catcher is always going to be more expensive than other positions.

But worst case for both teams is they ​are both a platoon hitter at there respective position, the bright side at least we got a catcher who in his career has thrown out twice as many runner over Suzuki's numbers last year.

Welcome to the board. Solid first post!

[DJL44]

 

That is all fine for the couple of weeks at a time Buxton has shown that he can stay on the field. But when he goes down, and he will, he is replaced by who?

 

The Twins were even thinner behind the plate if Suzuki got hurt and catchers get hurt ALL THE TIME.

[h2oface]

 

 

Ex-Twins are now the enemy.

 Not in my book. I love baseball too much to buy that, no matter how many loving fans become haters. Especially when in many cases, it was the management's inability to adapt that was the problem, and not the players. I don't think my children are my enemy when the leave either, and they did it by choice, and were not even involuntarily traded.      I find the players that I follow for 4, 5 and 6 years in the minors way more family than guys like Phil Hughes and Nolasco, for example.

 

Edited November 11, 2015 by h2oface

[bluechipper]

Like many others, I'm meh on the trade because I really liked Aaron Hicks, but lets remember three things: 1. league average catchers don't grow on trees 2. Aaron Hicks probably doesn't profile well in the corners 3. This doesn't mean Shane Robinson will be your opening day center fielder and that the Twins suddenly lost their immense outfield depth.

[h2oface]

 

1. league average catchers don't grow on trees

 

....but yet, the very reason they are classified as average is that they are the most common fruit, and their performances govern and establish the average-ness.

Edited November 11, 2015 by h2oface

[dbminn]

 

I don't see a pergame column. And yes, Suzuki saw 2.49 times (not 3 times) as many pitches. But if Murphy caught 2.49 times as many pitches, then he would jump to 31st in extra strikes, making the difference between the two greater. 

 

Second column from the right. I would also use the pergame data because there are a lot of catchers listed who caught 0-1,000 pitches. Total strikes doesn't make for good ranking, IMO. Suzuki is not a great catcher. I just noted my surprise that his 2015 strikes added/lost per game is essentially zero, considering how bad the data looked for 2014.