Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 6 (11-15)

[Cap'n Piranha]

I really really like the idea of Meyer out of the bullpen.  He's been passed on the SP depth chart by Duffey, Berrios, and May, and Hughes, Santana, and probably Nolasco aren't going anywhere, which doesn't even mention Gibson and Milone.  Put him in the 'pen, and hope that by mid-season, Meyer, Jepsen, and Chargois are throwing gas in set-up roles--that's a bullpen that could lock down some games.

[Badsmerf]

 

Did you miss the part where he's had two straight years of above .600 OPS, despite being a year or more younger than league average?  No one's saying Vielma is a star, but a hoover at short who can avoid being an offensive black hole is a valuable commodity.

That is hoping he can continue the same level of offensive output into the MLB, which is unlikely. What exactly would you consider an offensive black hole? That is exactly what I'm profiling him as right now. Perhaps next season he will prove otherwise. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Even if Meyer ends up in the pen, I'm not certain you can call the Span trade a disaster.  It was the type of trade they needed to do, and there's no such thing as a risk free trade.  It's why Ryan aquired 3 pitchers via trade that offseason, as invariably, some don't work out.  The irony is that the one who appears to have worked out is the one no one thought would be this good.  There's risk involved with this type of trade (and let's not forget that there was some risk aquiring Span too, and that he wasn't very good the first year of that transition).  The Meyer book isn't closed just yet, and even as a reliever he could be pretty good.  I agree that I'd rather him start, but I think calling the trade a disaster is a bit unfair.  A disaster is Hardy for Hoey.  This isn't that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

To reiterate, you are now officially on record with this statement from above:

 

 

My thought is the Meyer to the 'pen is how it will go. If I'm wrong, great. He's a great person, so no matter which role he ends up in, I'll wish him the best. I think with the Twins starting pitching depth and his struggles last year, I think he's in the bullpen from now on.

 

Again, if I'm wrong, that's fine. I've been wrong on several things before and will be again.

[Seth Stohs]

 

They could have traded for more pool money.  I would have liked to see them sign one or two more players for relatively sizeable amounts, but if there really wasn't anyone they thought was worth the money/trade value then I'm not broken up about it.

 

They could have, but I don't know enough about the international market to know what's out there. Signing the big name guys makes the splash, but sometimes the guys who sign for $10,000 do just as well.  So, I'm in no position to question their international signing strategy.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

That is hoping he can continue the same level of offensive output into the MLB, which is unlikely. What exactly would you consider an offensive black hole? That is exactly what I'm profiling him as right now. Perhaps next season he will prove otherwise. 

 

At Low A in his age 19/20 season, Vielmas OPS'd .636.  Didi Gregorious (who was 4th amongst all qualified SS this year in WAR, and has a similar below-average offense, good-to-great defense profile) in his age 20 season OPS'd .694 at low A and .561 at high A.

 

Last year, Vielma in his 20/21 season was at high A, and OPS'd .627, whereas Gregorious was at .791 at high A, and .704 in AA.

 

That being said--Gregorious played in the Cali league for high A; both years he was there, ever team OPS'd over .729.  Last year in the FSL, no team OPS'd over .700.  Both Vielma and Gregorious were in the Midwest League for A ball, except when Didi was there, 10 team OPS'd over .700, and in 2014 when Vielma was there, only 6 did.

 

Vielma is not as good offensively as Didi, but he's certainly not far off, and can clearly be a valuable contributor if he continues to progress.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Even if Meyer ends up in the pen, I'm not certain you can call the Span trade a disaster.  It was the type of trade they needed to do, and there's no such thing as a risk free trade.  It's why Ryan aquired 3 pitchers via trade that offseason, as invariably, some don't work out.  The irony is that the one who appears to have worked out is the one no one thought would be this good.  There's risk involved with this type of trade (and let's not forget that there was some risk aquiring Span too, and that he wasn't very good the first year of that transition).  The Meyer book isn't closed just yet, and even as a reliever he could be pretty good.  I agree that I'd rather him start, but I think calling the trade a disaster is a bit unfair.  A disaster is Hardy for Hoey.  This isn't that.

 

Correct... the thinking behind the trade (the process) was right... how it will turn out is to be seen. Right now, not looking great, but they have his rights for like 6-7 more years, so he could prove valuable.

[howieramone2]

 

Javier better be a great prospect, they likely won't sign any more than him this year, or they'd suffer next year (which, you know, would be nice if they went all in with their money, but whatever). Frankly, if he's really not a top 10 guy, they probably wasted their money.

Burdi vs Meyer, dang, that's a tough one for me. Frankly, as bad as Meyer was last year, I'd probably rate him higher. He has succeeded at a higher level.

I can't imagine our favorite team would spent 4M on a 16 year-old they didn't think was #1. Ben Balder at BA didn't have any problem with the pick. How much agreement is there on American made picks at 16 years-olds?

[Mike Sixel]

Correct... the thinking behind the trade (the process) was right... how it will turn out is to be seen. Right now, not looking great, but they have his rights for like 6-7 more years, so he could prove valuable.

Except that if it doesn't work out, they scouted something wrong, or developed something wrong, or just bad luck or whatever. But if we "should" give them credit for good choices, we probably are ok giving them demerits for bad choices, even when following good processes.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't imagine our favorite team would spent 4M on a 16 year-old they didn't think was #1. Ben Balder at BA didn't have any problem with the pick. How much agreement is there on American made picks at 16 years-olds?

I think we are agreeing, I think they do think he has a shot to be awesome. People here arguing that he shouldn't be ranked because he hasn't played? those are the people I was arguing against. If he's not good enough to be ranked (as at least one person here argued) they made a mistake. Personally, he should probably be in the top 10 on this list......but that's just me.

[howieramone2]

 

Except that if it doesn't work out, they scouted something wrong, or developed something wrong, or just bad luck or whatever. But if we "should" give them credit for good choices, we probably are ok giving them demerits for bad choices, even when following good processes.

Board favorite Berrios was an overdraft. Except for the Drew Butera trade, I'm trying to remember one that was favorably received by the board. Could you refresh my memory? Have we ever signed a free agent that was favorably received?

[Mike Sixel]

Board favorite Berrios was an overdraft. Except for the Drew Butera trade, I'm trying to remember one that was favorably received by the board. Could you refresh my memory? Have we ever signed a free agent that was favorably received?

I'm not sure what this has to do with my argument / question.

 

LOTS of people LOVED the Hughes FA deal, lots of them.

[TRex]

 

At Low A in his age 19/20 season, Vielmas OPS'd .636.  Didi Gregorious (who was 4th amongst all qualified SS this year in WAR, and has a similar below-average offense, good-to-great defense profile) in his age 20 season OPS'd .694 at low A and .561 at high A.

 

Last year, Vielma in his 20/21 season was at high A, and OPS'd .627, whereas Gregorious was at .791 at high A, and .704 in AA.

 

That being said--Gregorious played in the Cali league for high A; both years he was there, ever team OPS'd over .729.  Last year in the FSL, no team OPS'd over .700.  Both Vielma and Gregorious were in the Midwest League for A ball, except when Didi was there, 10 team OPS'd over .700, and in 2014 when Vielma was there, only 6 did.

 

Vielma is not as good offensively as Didi, but he's certainly not far off, and can clearly be a valuable contributor if he continues to progress.

I am not sure whether projecting Vielma's hitting potential based upon the 6'2" Gregorious is apt, but I really agree that one needs to look at the numbers in the context of the league as a whole.

 

The averages for the FSL this year were .248/.307/.337 (avg/obp-w/o  HBP/slg), meaning Vielma's line of .266/.313/.323 was about league average.

* note, I understand that those are really low numbers, but it is what it is...

 

With that in mind, I don't understand why it is a travesty that a young, slick fielding SS who swings a league average bat (or better, with Seth's report that he hit 298/.357/.329 in his final 90 games) and steals a lot of bases at~75% is your 15th best prospect!

 

<with tongue firmly in cheek>

Good God, man, don't you remember when NICK BLACKBURN was our #1 prospect!

Edited October 27, 2015 by TRex

[Seth Stohs]

 

I can't imagine our favorite team would spent 4M on a 16 year-old they didn't think was #1. Ben Balder at BA didn't have any problem with the pick. How much agreement is there on American made picks at 16 years-olds?

 

There aren't any 16-year-old American's signing. These guys are signing anywhere from 18-30 months earlier than the Americans. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Except that if it doesn't work out, they scouted something wrong, or developed something wrong, or just bad luck or whatever. But if we "should" give them credit for good choices, we probably are ok giving them demerits for bad choices, even when following good processes.

 

Of course... They're paid to be right... but sometimes the right things still don't work out... and vice versa.

[howieramone2]

 

There aren't any 16-year-old American's signing. These guys are signing anywhere from 18-30 months earlier than the Americans. 

Seth, that was my exact point.

[DocBauer]

Because of his age and size, and he need to "muscle up" some more over the next couple of years, I think I would downgrade Vielma a few spots. But despite being younger than average for his level, he seems to have a hit tool and the ability to take a few walks. He has certainly shown speed and SB ability as well. If his defense is as good as advertised...well...he's someone you absolutely have to have at least a little excitement about! Now...a few extra protein shakes to get him to 180lbs....

 

I understand the idea that Javier is a huge signing, so you assume the Twins knew what they were getting, and therefor he ranks high based on young, raw athleticism and the such. But 16 and having never played...mmm...I think I'd knock him down a couple spots just for so many unknowns at this point.

 

But I can't say either of these kids is ranked vastly out of place. ALL prospects are just that, prospects. Projectability is difficult to fully quantify.

 

What's so interesting about this group of 5 is that there are legitimate questions, of differing sorts, for all of them; age, injury, no experience, bad 2015, etc. But all 5 of them have some really, really nice potential. As much as anyone in the entire Twins milb system.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

There's not much more uncertain in baseball than international signings. Sano is one who appears to have made it, but most of the international guys who have signed for more than $3 million haven't made it. So there are no guarantees with any of them. See Michael Ynoa (brother of Twins minor leaguer Huascar Ynoa).

 

 

Anyone know of any work out there that has discussed or studied whether or not certain "types" of international prospects have a higher success rates than others? For instance, Cuban Sluggers in their 20's I am guessing have a higher success rate of translating well to U.S. professional success. But, what about 16 year old slick fielders that are wiry and guessing on future weight/builds vs. 16 year bigger kids that are all bat, but position is uncertain? Seems like their a lot of middle infielders in the pros, but then again, there is likely more international kids singed as SS's too than other positions. 

 

Just curious if there is some correlation research done of the MLB international players, and to what their prospect report said about them when they originally signed. Would be interesting to see if there is any common denominators that pops out, and what things were NOT said about them? 

 

Any guesses, or anyone up for this challenge?

[Mike Sixel]

By the way, if those are the numbers, I like Vielma much more than I thought. Context is important.

[Mike Sixel]

Anyone know of any work out there that has discussed or studied whether or not certain "types" of international prospects have a higher success rates than others? For instance, Cuban Sluggers in their 20's I am guessing have a higher success rate of translating well to U.S. professional success. But, what about 16 year old slick fielders that are wiry and guessing on future weight/builds vs. 16 year bigger kids that are all bat, but position is uncertain? Seems like their a lot of middle infielders in the pros, but then again, there is likely more international kids singed as SS's too than other positions. 

 

Just curious if there is some correlation research done of the MLB international players, and to what their prospect report said about them when they originally signed. Would be interesting to see if there is any common denominators that pops out, and what things were NOT said about them? 

 

Any guesses, or anyone up for this challenge?

search FG, but I don't think so.....BA might have something, but I don't pay for that. I have also wondered that.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

 Have we ever signed a free agent that was favorably received?

I was very excited and optimistic about the Nolasco signing, and Hughes. No seriously, I was pumped about buying low on Nolasco. Not afraid to look like an idiot.

[markos]

 

By the way, if those are the numbers, I like Vielma much more than I thought. Context is important.

Apologies if you already know this...

 

Fangraphs calculates each minor leaguer's wRC+ relative to the league they are in. So Vielma's wRC+ of 93 puts his offense about 7% worst than average in the Florida State League. It is a nice feature since the various minor league levels have such different run environments.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657416&position=SS

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

search FG, but I don't think so.....BA might have something, but I don't pay for that. I have also wondered that.

Yeah, I don't remember anything ever being done on it at any of the SABR-sites, so was just curious if I was missing something.

[Mike Sixel]

Apologies if you already know this...

 

Fangraphs calculates each minor leaguer's wRC+ relative to the league they are in. So Vielma's wRC+ of 93 puts his offense about 7% worst than average in the Florida State League. It is a nice feature since the various minor league levels have such different run environments.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657416&position=SS

thanks, I rarely look at the minor league numbers there for some reason. Good reminder. And, 7% worse, from a potentially elite defensive SS? Sign me up.*

 

*not saying he'll do that in the majors, btw....

[jokin]

 

Even if Meyer ends up in the pen, I'm not certain you can call the Span trade a disaster.  It was the type of trade they needed to do, and there's no such thing as a risk free trade.  It's why Ryan aquired 3 pitchers via trade that offseason, as invariably, some don't work out.  The irony is that the one who appears to have worked out is the one no one thought would be this good.  There's risk involved with this type of trade (and let's not forget that there was some risk aquiring Span too, and that he wasn't very good the first year of that transition).  The Meyer book isn't closed just yet, and even as a reliever he could be pretty good.  I agree that I'd rather him start, but I think calling the trade a disaster is a bit unfair.  A disaster is Hardy for Hoey.  This isn't that.

 

 

Uhh... Nope... If this is how it ultimately plays out, this is an unmitigated disaster. ***

 

And you're also incorrect about Span's first year with the Nats.  He wasn't as good as he was in 2014, but he still produced the identical fWAR- 3.4- from his last season with the Twins.

 

Seth appears to have closed the book on Meyer in the rotation- but you can't simply whitewash the fact that that's already acknowledging the Twins wasted 3 years of failed development time better spent elsewhere- and wasting 3 years of Meyer's bullets in the process. You argue that the Twins simply had to take the risk. Really? What has been the Twins' track record on developing over-sized hard throwers? Zilch. I'd argue (and I did argue such at the time) that the price and risk were far too high in making a strong-up-the-middle-player-for-pure-prospect swap. Dave Cameron followed suit on my opinion within a day or so.

 

You simply can't just shed a cost-controlled and a clearly superior-to-the-average player at an elite position unless you get a useful proven major league piece thrown into the transaction (Drew Storen? 2.3 fWAR from 2013-15)- to compensate if you lose the bet on your lotto pick piece. Losing Span, the heart of the Twins OF defense, left a gaping hole that resulted in one of the main reasons that the Twins were the laughing stock of baseball, save the Astros (look who's laughing now).

 

 

*** Span has accumulated 8.8 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. By contrast, if the Twins had traded for a Top 10 veteran RP instead of Meyer, the average net accumulated fWAR for the best 10 RPs over the same 3-year span is 5.79.  With Meyer going to the pen- and since early results aren't exactly encouraging that he can ever be an annual Top 10 MLB RP, the Twins will almost certainly never recover the lost value that Span has and will continue to accumulate before he retires.

 

Again, it's important to reiterate, a Top 100 prospect over the last 4 years, ranked as such just 6 months ago, one of the two highest hopes to become the elusive Twins Ace- is now only the 3rd highest rated relief pitching prospect (with the other two guys above him full of their own question marks)- which could mean he ends up being a 6th or 7th inning guy down the road if it plays out that way.  That's quite a long fall from glory in such a small 6-month span of time.

Edited October 27, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

 

I'm not sure what this has to do with my argument / question.

LOTS of people LOVED the Hughes FA deal, lots of them.

 

I was just about to let him have it with both barrels.  Good thing I read down the thread.  Well-said, Sir.

[jsteve96]

disagree with the span comment above^^^^ you have to be willing to lose 3 games per year when you're bad in order to win 2 games per year when were good.  sure span may have got us 9 wins total and Meyer 5.. but its about when the wins come.. gotta be willing to lose to win

[DocBauer]

I guess I'm really of the opinion of no opinion at this juncture.

 

And I say that simply because the jury is still out on Meyer. At then end of 2014 everyone pretty much held the opinion that he was ready to come up and let loose, or that he was really close and would be up soon. I'm not going to downgrade the trade, or call the Twins losers after one poor season.

 

Ideally, trades turn out about equal for both clubs. I understand an established player like Span, who I like a lot, for a prospect, even a top prospect, may seem a stretch at first, and initial win for Washington. But as good as Span is, Meyer as a top rotation starter...Twins win. Meyer becomes a really nice #2...Twins probably win. Now, Meyer becomes the next dominant Joe Nathan caliber closer...I don't know if I can say that's a loss. Granted to he didn't rise to original expectations, but an elite, all-star caliber closer for multiple and probably cost controlled years? Just not a loss in my mind.

 

Sometimes, player for prospects, we just don't see the final results for a couple years. So I'm holding off judgment for now. And BTW, I think he goes back to the rotation for 2016. 

[blairpaul715]

 

To reiterate, you are now officially on record with this statement from above:

 

 

The Twins have not publicly stated that Meyer has permanently been designated as a reliever- it seems more like the opposite is true in their public statements. And to have Meyer considered as such from this point forward- (you do seem "convinced"- for whatever reason(s)- that this is now how the Twins are envisioning that his career path proceeds, right?)-  pretty much means that the trade with Washington has been a disaster, most definitely difficult, if not impossible to get a "positive" takeaway here. By these rankings, Meyer is now behind two guys who have had their own share of struggles, but who only ever projected as RPs.

 

 

Again, this was a guy who only 6 months ago was rated as the BP #14-ranked prospect in all of baseball- not #13 on the Twins.

 

I'm not saying your conclusion is necessarily wrong, just that it's hard to accept the stamp of a positive spin on a guy who's ceiling only 6 months ago was said to be as an "Ace".

Seems the way you 'ride' Seths quotes and his rankings, you would think he was the GM and not a TD poster, albeit the King TD Poster

[Monkeypaws]

I used to be a religious buyer of Baseball America's prospect handbooks (I remember Blackburn as #1, and David McCarty). Whereas I liked being able to see the reports for all the teams, I think the prospect reports at Twins Daily are much better: knowledgeable folks who actually see the players, and have contact with insiders, very intersting reading.