Article: Chasing An Ace

[Nick Nelson]

Last week, on Twitter and in the Twins Daily forum, I posed a hypothetical question: If you were the Twins GM, and you had the chance to trade Jose Berrios and Max Kepler for Oakland's Sonny Gray, would you do it?

 

The responses varied widely – everywhere from "Yes, in a split-second" to "Not in a million years." But the uncomfortable proposition of parting with both the organization's reigning minor-league pitcher and hitter of the year highlights a dreary and relevant reality: Acquiring an "ace" pitcher is really, really difficult.Outlook for the 2016 Rotation

 

The Twins had plenty of solid depth in their starting corps this season, with five different starters making 15-plus starts and posting an ERA that was close to or slightly above average.

 

What was lacking, however, was a true standout No. 1. Kyle Gibson earned that billing by default, as he led the way in innings and ERA, but his ERA ranked 48th among big-league starters and his K-rate ranked 60th. A match-up between Gibson and someone like David Price, Cole Hamels or Dallas Keuchel in a Game 1 postseason tilt would have been tragically lopsided.

 

So as the Twins try to solidify themselves as true contenders this offseason, the search for that top-tier arm to lead the rotation is a primary consideration, and one that we cover extensively in the upcoming Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!).

 

Before we dig into the topic here, let's ask ourselves a question:

 

Does An Ace Really Matter That Much?

 

It seems inherently obvious. Many teams have ridden their horse to October glory, with last year's Giants and Madison Bumgarner serving as a prime example.

 

But having that premier starter at the front of your rotation doesn't come close to guaranteeing anything. This year, we saw the Royals ship out some great young talent to acquire Johnny Cueto from the Reds at the deadline, only to watch the righty post a 5.27 ERA in 16 starts between the regular season and postseason.

 

Cueto was pretty much the definition of an ace starter when Kansas City acquired him. He'd been Cincinnati's No. 1 for years, had pitched in big postseason games, and had the second-lowest ERA among all MLB starters since 2011, trailing only the inimitable Clayton Kershaw. Yet, as the Royals learned, and as the Twins have learned on a smaller scale with Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco, you don't always know what you're getting.

 

Even when a top starter does pitch up to his ability, it's not some magical elixir that assures postseason success. The Twins went to the playoffs four times from 2002 through 2006, and the only time they won a series was when Johan Santana was NOT in the rotation.

 

Paying The Price

 

In any case, clearly, having a high-end starter fronting the rotation makes a team better, both in the regular season and playoffs. So what would it cost for the Twins to reel in an elite pitching talent?

 

The top name on the free agent market is David Price, who could land a record-setting deal coming off a Cy Young caliber season in which he had an enormous impact for the Blue Jays following a deadline trade. It seems safe to assume that the Twins won't go north of $200 million on any contract.

 

Next in line are names like Zack Greinke, Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, but each is likely to ink a nine-figure contract. That's probably too steep. In fact, almost any lucrative long-term deal for a starter is difficult to fathom when the Twins have committed a total of $170 to Santana, Nolasco and Phil Hughes over the past two offseasons.

 

Those big commitments to middling veterans are really limiting the Twins' flexibility to make a meaningful plunge into the pitching market. It'd be nice if they could take all those deals back and put that combined sum toward one elite arm, but alas.

 

Outside of free agency, the avenue for acquiring a big-name starter would be a trade. As the Berrios/Kepler-for-Gray scenario illustrates, going this route would require a painful exodus of high-caliber young talent. Still, it might be worth it. Gray has established himself at a level Berrios can only hope to reach, and will be controlled at a reasonable price for many years. He's only one example, but he's certainly the type of player that Terry Ryan should be targeting if he's willing to pony up with some of his top prospects.

 

Searching Within

 

The alternative to all this, of course, is to stand pat and hope that someone emerges from within to provide the Twins with a legitimate No. 1 starter. I see three paths to this outcome that aren't completely unrealistic:

 

1) Ervin Santana pitches like he did in September for most the season.

 

When the Twins signed Santana to a franchise-record free agent deal last winter, they were hoping he could become that No. 1 guy for them. He certainly looked the part at times. In his first four starts and last seven starts, he combined to go 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That's ace type stuff, for sure. Of course, the problem was that in between those stretches he endured a miserable slump. That's always been the story for Santana: flashes of brilliance amidst consistent inconsistency. There's a reason he has only twice posted an ERA+ higher than 111. It's tough to believe he'll pull it together for a full year, especially as he ages into his mid-30s and surpasses 2,000 innings in career workload.

 

2) Phil Hughes reverts to 2014 form.

 

It gets overlooked a bit since the Twins lost 92 games, but Hughes really was an ace-caliber starter in his first season with Minnesota. He set an MLB record for K/BB ratio, his 2.65 FIP was sixth-best in baseball, and he was "quality" in 20 of his 32 starts. This year, Hughes' HR-rate spiked while his strikeouts plummeted, but decreased fastball velocity (attributable to back problems?) appeared to be the main culprit. He did maintain his elite control, proving that 2014 was no fluke in that regard, so if he can regain the zip on his heater and start missing more bats he has a chance to get back to that level. Hughes doesn't turn 30 until next June.

 

3) Jose Berrios fulfills his promise.

 

Since he lacks the prototypical frame of a front-end workhorse starter, Berrios' ability to develop into the pitcher that his spectacular minor-league numbers foretell has always been in question. Yet, the kid just continues to dominate older and more experienced competition at every stop. And he's the one pitcher in the mix for the Twins who, in terms of pure stuff, can match up to the top dogs on contending clubs.

 

Personally, I think the chances of at least one of the three possibilities mentioned above coming to fruition are good enough that I'd forego taking the drastic steps necessary to acquire an established No. 1 starter externally.

 

How about you?

 

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[brvama]

I would agree with your conclusion. Paying an enormous amount of dollars or players/prospects at this juncture makes me nervous. Instead of a number1starter I might be more inclined to go after a fringe1, solid 2 starter. Still would be expensive but not quite as bad. Maybe we already have that in option 3.

[TheLeviathan]

I really hope this doesn't go down the "you have to have an ace to win in the playoffs" path.  It's totally incorrect and massively overrated.

 

But having an ace for the regular season grind is beneficial and the team should be on the hunt for one.  Personally, I'd rather invest our trade assets and money into offensive players at this stage in the rebuild.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'd rather invest that free agent money in analytics and staff. I'd rather bring in additional staff with new approaches and new ideas. Make sure guys like Berrios, May, and Duffey are set up for success. Also, the Twins shouldn't write off Alex Meyer. It wasn't too long ago that Meyer was a fast track to the majors.

 

Bringing in new staff and new ideas is a lot to ask of a conservative organization like the Twins, but it's a lot cheaper to develop your own guys than pay big money for other teams retreads.

 

 

 

[sane]

IMO, chasing an ace usually produces the same result as when a dog keeps chasing his ace.(spelling?)

[notoriousgod71]

I don't trust that my definition of an ace is the same as Terry Ryan's.

 

 

Brad Radke is not an ace.

[bluechipper]

Trading Berrios for a number 2 like Sonny Gray would most likely end up being a terrible move. The Twins don't get any benefit from his first 3 years in the majors, and it's a decent bet that a guy who is much more highly regarded than Gray ever was will outproduce him from this point on anyways.

 

I think the only time that it's right to trade for an ace is a situation like the Cole Hamels Rangers trade this year- controlled for four years and the Phillies didn't mind saving some money, so it doesn't cost you a borderline top-10 prospect in return.

[USAFChief]

I'd spend the money. The Twins can afford it, and otherwise it'll just go unspent.

[nicksaviking]

I think you need an ace or five, but I don't think you chase them.

 

The team simply has to start making their own. If they continually fail at this task that most other teams have not failed at nearly as often, wholesale changes need to be made. Developing strikeout generating horses is one of the biggest keys to this whole game.

 

I also think we're getting awfully close to trying to buy our way out of a rebuild, which is going to really hurt a sustained run of success.

[Jham]

Hmmm... Cards, Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets....  Royals, Jays, Yankees, Stros, and Rangers...

The only teams without a true ace Cardinals and Yankees, had borderline aces and were eliminated at their first opportunity.  The Rangers and Jays were out of it before dealing for aces.  The Royals went and got Cueto who was fantastic in Game 5.  If you don't have an ace (or several) you had better have a lights out rotation top to bottom.  

 

Arieta, Mets anyone, Price, and Cueto.  That seems to make a pretty solid case for needing an ace to both make the post season, and win in the post season.

 

Twins need an ace.  Berrios, May, Meyer, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, Santana....  very very very unlikely that any of those would turn out to be truly dominant.  Especially in post season.

[USAFChief]

I think you need an ace or five, but I don't think you chase them.

The team simply has to start making their own. If they continually fail at this task that most other teams have not failed at nearly as often, wholesale changes need to be made. Developing strikeout generating horses is one of the biggest keys to this whole game.

I also think we're getting awfully close to trying to buy our way out of a rebuild, which is going to really hurt a sustained run of success.

If your plan is to build your way out of a rebuild, that's going to really hurt even a short run of success.

 

"Make your own ace(s)" sounds great, but isn't something you can just choose to do.

 

Buying one, however,is relatively easy.

[Kwak]

This team isn't good enough yet to spend for a #1 pitcher--but a top hitter,  definitely.  Even if a combination of trades and money (say to make room for said hitter) is needed, I would go down that path.  The 2015 success was based on one hot month and the effect Sano had in improving the offense.  Some trades and the acquisition of a top hitter, would put the Twins on the brink of success.  The two or three years to assemble everyone also "works-off" some of the "Pitcher contracts"  thus permitting the acquisition of this (mythical) #1 pitcher.  In short, improve the hitting (and hopefully defense) , work-off some high-priced contracts, then get the #1 pitcher and roll the dice.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Kwak

[Willihammer]

I give the Twins creativity points for the draft-college-reliever, develop-into-starter strategy. Duffey is about the only return so far, but its too early to judge it one way or another. Watching Liam Hendriks hit 98 in Toronto the other day, I do with they were better at identifying when starters should be converted (back) into relievers before they cut bait and lose them for nothing.

 

For a short-term strategy, trade seems like the best strategy to me. A guy like Carlos Carrasco looks like a decent bet to have a breakout, ace caliber year and is rumored to be on the trading block. Or someone who they think has the stuff but has been miscast in a bullpen role or just hasn't put it all together for a full season yet.

[kab21]

 

I really hope this doesn't go down the "you have to have an ace to win in the playoffs" path.  It's totally incorrect and massively overrated.

 

But having an ace for the regular season grind is beneficial and the team should be on the hunt for one.  Personally, I'd rather invest our trade assets and money into offensive players at this stage in the rebuild.

Having an ace doesn't guarantee that a team will win.

 

Not having anyone better than a #3 makes it really difficult to win 3 series.

[DocBauer]

There is no question Gray is an excellent young pitcher and would seem to have a bright future. "Ace-Dom"? Maybe. And yeah, I want the Twins to have an ace. I also want to be 5 deep in the rotation as 1 or 2 top starters and lack of depth doesn't do anything to guarantee success and victory either.

 

It's easy to be flippant and just say "do it" and invest $200M for 6 years on a FA pitcher and speculate that he guarantees something, and that he won't get hurt, or lose his stuff early, or that he'll be worth at least a portion of his money the final year or two, or that his contract won't be an albatross. But the investment in years and dollars are real. And they can affect the structure of a team.

 

Likewise, trading for someone like Gray carries the value of top prospects that could, potentially, outweighs the value of the one player you acquire. No guarantees either way.

 

There is definite reason to believe a healthy Hughes will be close, or closer, to his 2014 self. And there is nothing to indicate Santana won't be ready to pitch as well as he ever has. (Debate whether that is as a 3 with 2 potential, or a 2 with occassional 1 moments) We still haven't seen the best of Gibson, and more to the point, May. And while I'm not going to say Berrios will develop in to an ace.....the possibility exists.

 

I believe as a TEAM, the Twins are better off upgrading at catcher, adding a couple real quality arms in the pen, and maybe another bat, (whether as a primary or good bench option).

[ScottyB]

My question is how many Aces have the Twins had in their history?  With a tip of the hat to franchise #1 Ace - Walter Johnson, in the MINNESOTA Twins 50+ year history I would say 1, Johan Santana.  Frankie V was very close, he was certainly a #1, which I differentiate from an Ace.  Radke, Kaat, Blyleven, Pascual, Perry, even Morris were good to very good pitchers, but none, yes none, were true Aces.

 

I also don't see an Ace in the pipeline.  If Barrios could turn into Pedro Martinez, that would be great.  I do see some good to very good pitchers, and one could have an Ace-type season.  I would say Kaat had that type of season in '66 and Viola in '88 and Perry in '70, so good pitchers can have great seasons.  Consistent Aces are difficult to find.  Gray is not yet an Ace in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[h2oface]

Buying one on the free agent market truly is relatively easy. Trading for one has way to much down side. Greinke is a special case. He negotiates his own contracts. As consistent as he is, I would dangle a five year, 150 million contract with an opt out option for Greinke after year 1, 2, 3 and 4. Let him leave if he wants to after each year. That gives him security and a chance to make more money if he stays as consistent as he has been, and the market allows him to in his perspective. I would also try to negotiate a club opt out after 3 years. That gives the Twins a chance to move on with youth if desired, and the pitchers from within become something special. The Twins truly aren't limited for money. That is fiction. It is apparent that the stadium will fill if the team wins. This owner can spend any money he wants to at anytime, and it still won't be a losing proposition for him, he just might not clear as much profit. If Greinke has the option to leave, and takes it, then the Twins got a great pitcher to lead the staff for as long as he is here and wants to be here, and gave up nothing for it. Greinke gets to seek greener pastures and get an even better deal. Even if it just lasts one year, it would be super. It is time to think outside the box for the future. Trading is the worst option, in my opinion. Buying 4 ERA pitchers or worse for 4 and 5 years is the most terrible option of all, and that is what Ryan likes to do, or at least what he has done. That may get you around a .500 team, but not much past that. Genius prognosticators said Houston and Chicago were at least a year away. I guess they are not so smart.

Edited October 21, 2015 by h2oface

[Thegrin]

Right now the Twins have an abundance of Aces ...                  Ace Bandages. 

 

Lets wait and see who develops   

[TheLeviathan]

Having an ace doesn't guarantee that a team will win.

 

Not having anyone better than a #3 makes it really difficult to win 3 series.

All that matters is that you get good performances. Who that comes from varies wildly. Just ask David Price. Or San Fran's other big hero: Ryan Vogelsong.

 

It's a cute phrasing, but all you have to do is go look at actual box scores to see it isn't that simple.

[BrianTrottier]

I honestly think that Berrios is their "ace." Call it blind faith, but I think he'll pan out. I also think that the Twins need to pour their resources into building an elite bullpen. Easier said than done, but recent years have shown that that's how teams win in the playoffs. Get ahead after 5 or 6 and shut the door.

[dougkoebernick]

I think all this talk on other postings about Hughes being "cooked" because he showed a decrease in velocity is a little "overdone" (ha!). As you point out, this may have been attributable to a back issue which makes a lot of sense. We won't know until spring but I would pretty much bet my house that his mph will bounce back if his back or any other ailments improve. It doesn't take much as far as an injury to lose that velocity. When that happens this spring, I think you pencil Hughes as a top #2 and a possible 1B. If you have him and Santana at the top that isn't a bad combo at all. When looking down the rest of the rotation, I would also say that Nolasco's contract wasn't bad - starting pitchers cost money. However, the results are because he can't stay healthy. He has showed glimpses and the money we are paying him really is like #3 or so money - and that's what he can be. Combine those three with Gibson and our young guys and I really like the look of that rotation. 

 

With all that said, if we were able to land a #1 guy without giving up Berrios, Kepler or Buxton I'm all for it. I'd definitely consider giving up Hicks, Arcia, and any of our other up and coming assets. Not so sure about Rosario but maybe.....

 

 

[Boom Boom]

Hughes drastically outperformed expectations in 2014. That shouldn't have become the new expectation going forward. He always gave up lots of home runs. That was the book on him. No, Hughes is not an ace, and he'll never be 2014 good again. That's why the contract extension was an unnecessary mistake.

 

I'm not saying he should be arrested for that. Hughes belongs in a major league rotation, but by no means is he a #1.

[nicksaviking]

 

If your plan is to build your way out of a rebuild, that's going to really hurt even a short run of success.

"Make your own ace(s)" sounds great, but isn't something you can just choose to do.

Buying one, however,is relatively easy.

I'm not saying it's a quick fix, but I can't believe creating your own ace(s) organically is only based on luck. 

 

I don't think buying one is easy though either.  Forget about the ramifications of sticking a fourth 30+ year old pitcher in the rotation, how could the Twins convince Greinke to pass up the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Red Sox or Cubs and come to Minnesota?  The Twins would have to pay a lot more money, or worse, more years. Teams not in big markets have to make their own, otherwise they'll have to be satisfied with calling middle of the road starters like Nolasco, Hughes or Santana an ace and live with it.

 

I'd consider a trade however if the Mets could be convinced to part with one of their aces.

[Mike Sixel]

How's that ace making going over the last 30 years?

[Platoon]

The conflict of opinions in this post point out one inescapable truth. The Twins roster situation is an incredible mess. Way to much money tied up in contracts to mid to low level 30+ yr old pitchers. And a batting order that lacks a clear #1 or #3 stick. Throw in a soft tossing bull pen, and you complete the picture. The Twins will not and cannot acquire a Price level FA pitcher. There is no reason for them to come here. Market size and chances of winning "now" are not a match. And the thought of the FO going in search of yet another tier 3 type pitcher is scary enough to be featured as this years Halloween theme.

[Eris]

Maybe this is posted somewhere on TD.  In January 2015 there was an article posted in USA today evaluating large $ value contracts for pitchers.  There are not many success stories?  The challenge with many of the free agents is that with few exceptions there performance starts dropping with age.  And it is often not known until hindsight who will perform well in their mid 30's. 

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb

 

Because of their lack of success in the post-season, would David Price or Johnny Cueto be available on a 3-4 year contract and therefore potentially with less risk.

 

Although it has been mentioned by others in this forum, I too find the number of pitchers released by the Twins who have found success elsewhere to be disturbing.  Granted these are relievers and not true Aces, it indicates that the Twins have difficulty projecting / developing pitchers which bodes very poorly for identifying future talent in trades.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Trading Berrios for a number 2 like Sonny Gray would most likely end up being a terrible move. The Twins don't get any benefit from his first 3 years in the majors, and it's a decent bet that a guy who is much more highly regarded than Gray ever was will outproduce him from this point on anyways.

 

I think the only time that it's right to trade for an ace is a situation like the Cole Hamels Rangers trade this year- controlled for four years and the Phillies didn't mind saving some money, so it doesn't cost you a borderline top-10 prospect in return.

 

The cost of the Cole Hamels deal was pretty crazy.  I would not have wanted the Twins to make that deal. This is what the Phillies got:

·SP Matt Harrison ($28.4 million guaranteed left on his contract)

·C Jorge Alfaro (Top-3 prospect within the Rangers organization, consensus top-50 prospect overall)
·SP Jake Thompson (Top-5 prospect within the Rangers, top-100 prospect overall in most publications)
·OF Nick Williams (71st best prospect in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus)
·SP Alec Asher

·SP Jerad Eickhoff


We can quibble about it but if you translate it to Twins terms:

 

- Nolasco (ineffective pitcher signed to long term deal)
- Kepler (top 3 prospect, should be somewhere around top 50 but not a catcher so perhaps I'm thinking too much of Kepler)
- Gonsalves (and this might be selling short since I'm not sure Gonsalves will be a top 100 prospect this year or even a Top 5 Twins prospect)
- Rosario (this is hard because Williams is a minor leaguer, Rosario had some issues and wasn't a top 100 prospect but I think the fact he's been to the majors makes up for some of the difference in pedigree)
- Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey (This is hard because Duffey was so good after being called up but at midseason pre-Twins call up, this is probably apt since Asher and Eickhoff are both better prospects than Rogers but not as good as Duffey.  Plus I sold high on Gonsalves so hopefully I have some wiggle room adding in Duffey?)

So an equivalent (perhaps not perfect but a good ballpark estimate since like most Twins fans I likely think more of Twins prospects than real life does) is Nolasco (yay!), Kepler, Gonsalves, Rosario, Rogers and Duffey for Hamels and Jake Diekman, a mediocre reliever.

 

That's way too much, even for a nice four year deal on an ace.  I'd rather the Twins sign the crazy Grienke contract than give up that level of material for an ace.  And I hate those crazy contracts because the opportunity cost down the road is less ability to signing the young guys. The best bet for a Twins ace is from within.  Gonsalves, Thorpe, Jorge, Berrios all have potential to be an ace.  If not, the Twins might just have to hit and occasionally make the rental deal for an ace like Price or Cueto.  Those prices are high for a rental but carry less risk so that might have to be Plan B.
 

[tobi0040]

 

The cost of the Cole Hamels deal was pretty crazy.  I would not have wanted the Twins to make that deal. This is what the Phillies got:

·SP Matt Harrison ($28.4 million guaranteed left on his contract)

·C Jorge Alfaro (Top-3 prospect within the Rangers organization, consensus top-50 prospect overall)
·SP Jake Thompson (Top-5 prospect within the Rangers, top-100 prospect overall in most publications)
·OF Nick Williams (71st best prospect in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus)
·SP Alec Asher

·SP Jerad Eickhoff


We can quibble about it but if you translate it to Twins terms:

 

- Nolasco (ineffective pitcher signed to long term deal)
- Kepler (top 3 prospect, should be somewhere around top 50 but not a catcher so perhaps I'm thinking too much of Kepler)
- Gonsalves (and this might be selling short since I'm not sure Gonsalves will be a top 100 prospect this year or even a Top 5 Twins prospect)
- Rosario (this is hard because Williams is a minor leaguer, Rosario had some issues and wasn't a top 100 prospect but I think the fact he's been to the majors makes up for some of the difference in pedigree)
- Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey (This is hard because Duffey was so good after being called up but at midseason pre-Twins call up, this is probably apt since Asher and Eickhoff are both better prospects than Rogers but not as good as Duffey.  Plus I sold high on Gonsalves so hopefully I have some wiggle room adding in Duffey?)

So an equivalent (perhaps not perfect but a good ballpark estimate since like most Twins fans I likely think more of Twins prospects than real life does) is Nolasco (yay!), Kepler, Gonsalves, Rosario, Rogers and Duffey for Hamels and Jake Diekman, a mediocre reliever.

 

That's way too much, even for a nice four year deal on an ace.  I'd rather the Twins sign the crazy Grienke contract than give up that level of material for an ace.  And I hate those crazy contracts because the opportunity cost down the road is less ability to signing the young guys. The best bet for a Twins ace is from within.  Gonsalves, Thorpe, Jorge, Berrios all have potential to be an ace.  If not, the Twins might just have to hit and occasionally make the rental deal for an ace like Price or Cueto.  Those prices are high for a rental but carry less risk so that might have to be Plan B.
 

 

The best way to approach these would be, what would a team pay for the rights to a really good, young player that is controlled?

 

If the Twins could sell Miguel Sano's rights, what would other teams pay?  I would argue he maybe worth something like 40-50M given how good he will be and how little he will make the next 6-7 years.

 

So when we start throwing in a TON of good young players it quickly does not make sense relative to what the FA will cost.

 

 

[spohner02]

 

Trading Berrios for a number 2 like Sonny Gray would most likely end up being a terrible move. The Twins don't get any benefit from his first 3 years in the majors, and it's a decent bet that a guy who is much more highly regarded than Gray ever was will outproduce him from this point on anyways.

 

I think the only time that it's right to trade for an ace is a situation like the Cole Hamels Rangers trade this year- controlled for four years and the Phillies didn't mind saving some money, so it doesn't cost you a borderline top-10 prospect in return.

You don't consider Sonny Gray an ace??

[Mike Sixel]

Sano? teams would pay more like $75-100MM for him right now. Look at what they are paying international free agents.

 

As for your point, it misses a point that people seem to ignore a lot. Only 25 guys are on a roster at a time. Only 8 SP pitch in many years. Only 1 at most infield positions in a year. IMO, it's not as simple as saying "you can't give up 2 WAR from these 5 people, for a guy that only gives you 5 WAR back", since those 5 might not be able to play at the same time (and might be replaceable themselves with 3 WAR guys). Generally, the analysis works, but specifically, not always.