Appel not signing?

[Cap'n Piranha]

According to Jon Heyman (via mlbtraderumors--link below), Appel is leaning against signing with the Pirates, because he wants more than the 3.84m bonus the Pirates can give, and not surrender a first round pick. I'm not sure I understand this move; isn't next year's different class, at least at this point, considered a stronger one than this year's? Therefore wouldn't Appel project to fall right aroudn this spot again, or does he think he'll be able to improve his stock that much in one year? Furthermore, doesn't the fact that he exhausts his eligibility at Stanford next year reduce his bargaining power? Basically, it seems like Appel, thanks to Scott Boras, is walking away from nearly 4 million dollars gauranteed, in the hopes that he moves up to the 1st-3rd slot. Maybe I'm missing something, but if I'm not, I'm kinda surprised, because I thought Stanford was supposed to be for smart kids.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/latest-on-pirates-mark-appel.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[drivlikejehu]

Isn't Heyman known as a mouthpiece for Boras? Could be a negotiating ploy, though I'm not sure to what end. Appel would have to be insane to walk away from that kind of money.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Just out of curiousity, if he is drafted in similar position next year, and again chooses not to sign, how long before he can sign with anyone as a free agent? 1 year?

[Highabove]

I wonder if we can look forward to seeing him in a Saint Paul Saints Uniform.

[righty8383]

I haven't seen one respected writer suggest that next years class looks stronger, so that may be the only thing Appel has going for him. Even if the draft class in the same or even weeker than this year, its still a stupid risk for Appel.

[jorgenswest]

It is well documented that 2012 class was the weakest in a decade. It was especially weak in the top 10 and became weaker when Giolito injured his arm. Appel has to realize that he likely will not go any higher in next year's draft. Even a below average group will be better than this year's group. I wonder if Boras' plan is to test this case in court and try to make him a free agent.

[biggentleben]

Another signing period, another high prospect threatening up to the last moment that he won't sign. Wake me up when he hasn't signed after the 14th.

[glunn]

Here is a link to an ESPN article about next year's draft class. http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseball/story/_/id/7878486/a-closer-look-espn-60-baseball-player-rankings

[IdahoPilgrim]

Here's another thing Appel might want to think about if he's hoping to go go high next year and get a big signing bonus - he will then have a track record of being difficult to sign, which may cause other teams to look elsewhere. My guess, if he goes into next year's draft, is he falls again to mid 1st round.

[Cody Christie]

He better just take the large amount of money the Pirates are offering and start playing his professional career.

[Jeff P]

  sbknudson said:

Just out of curiousity, if he is drafted in similar position next year, and again chooses not to sign, how long before he can sign with anyone as a free agent? 1 year?

I am curious about that too, if he falls in next years draft due to signability concerns or injury, his slot amount might be less than what he could get if he waited a year (if that is the time) and opened up the bidding to all teams.

 

Of course I doubt it would be any where near the 3.8M he potentially is turning down now.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

  biggentleben said:

Another signing period, another high prospect threatening up to the last moment that he won't sign. Wake me up when he hasn't signed after the 14th.

Agreed. All of the unsigned guys - as of now - aren't gonna sign. And of the big names (Appel, Gausman and Giolito), Appel has by far the least leverage.

[gunnarthor]

  jorgenswest said:

It is well documented that 2012 class was the weakest in a decade. It was especially weak in the top 10 and became weaker when Giolito injured his arm. Appel has to realize that he likely will not go any higher in next year's draft. Even a below average group will be better than this year's group. I wonder if Boras' plan is to test this case in court and try to make him a free agent.

Klaw mentioned that (while it's still early) Appel would probably be #1 in next years draft, too.

 

While I generally agree with the sentiment that he should take the 3.8m and start his career, it is conceivable that he could make more if he doesn't sign. I think the risk is too much and wouldn't do it but I'm not him. Cubs could take him in the top 3 for instance and pay him 5-6m pretty easily. And while he lacks some leverage, I don't think any team taking him next year would try to screw him over by giving him a lowball offer or not intending to sign him - esp since Boras is such an important agent in all of baseball. He could slide but I think teams will be better prepared for sliding players next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

  gunnarthor said:

Klaw mentioned that (while it's still early) Appel would probably be #1 in next years draft, too.

 

While I generally agree with the sentiment that he should take the 3.8m and start his career, it is conceivable that he could make more if he doesn't sign. I think the risk is too much and wouldn't do it but I'm not him. Cubs could take him in the top 3 for instance and pay him 5-6m pretty easily. And while he lacks some leverage, I don't think any team taking him next year would try to screw him over by giving him a lowball offer or not intending to sign him - esp since Boras is such an important agent in all of baseball. He could slide but I think teams will be better prepared for sliding players next year.

An extra year of free agency after his six year service time is worth up to ten times more than any additional bonus he'll get for holding out.

[Seth Stohs]

  sbknudson said:

Just out of curiousity, if he is drafted in similar position next year, and again chooses not to sign, how long before he can sign with anyone as a free agent? 1 year?

Unless there is a court case of some sort, he would never become a free agent. If he doesn't sign this July, he would go back into next year's draft. If he doesn't sign then, he would go back into the next draft. And on and on.

[greengoblinrulz]

New system.....which most of us love.....could be the end of Scott Boros style agents in the draft. Boros, not Appel, cost the pitcher several slots in this draft.....meaning millions

[righty8383]

  greengoblinrulz said:

New system.....which most of us love.....could be the end of Scott Boros style agents in the draft. Boros, not Appel, cost the pitcher several slots in this draft.....meaning millions

Yep, If I were a big time draft prospect I don't even think I would hire an agent (by that I mean listen to an advisor). In fact I would probably just wait until I made my big league debut before I started looking into agents.

[gunnarthor]

  rocketpig said:

An extra year of free agency after his six year service time is worth up to ten times more than any additional bonus he'll get for holding out.

Only if his body holds up after all those years. Mark Prior's signing bonus was almost as much as his entire career earnings.

 

(That's why I'd take the 3.8m now rather than risk another year of college ball but there is some sense in trying to make as much as you can now instead of hoping for a major payoff 6-9 years from now).

[Musk21]

I guess God's plan for him was to turn down almost $4 million in hopes of an extra few million next year. God is great! And works in mysterious ways!

[Brock Beauchamp]

  gunnarthor said:

Only if his body holds up after all those years. Mark Prior's signing bonus was almost as much as his entire career earnings.

 

(That's why I'd take the 3.8m now rather than risk another year of college ball but there is some sense in trying to make as much as you can now instead of hoping for a major payoff 6-9 years from now).

The key difference is that now, signing bonuses are slotted. That limits what Appel can get in the first place.

[StormJH1]

This is fascinating to me. Didn't they turn down preliminary offers from Houston of around $6 million? What exactly was the point of driving a hard bargain with the teams at the top of the draft board, if the teams further down below CAN'T offer more money by the rules?

 

Also, doesn't PIT have the option of exceeding the signing bonus cap this year and forfeiting their pick next year? Might it even make sense for them to do so, if they got a pitcher who is Top 3 talent this year, and could end up picking 8th, 12th, 15th, or whatever next year?

 

If they can't sign Appel, they basically "forfeit" this pick anyway, though I assume there's some type of compensatory pick for them next year if that happens.

[righty8383]

  StormJH1 said:

doesn't PIT have the option of exceeding the signing bonus cap this year and forfeiting their pick next year? Might it even make sense for them to do so, if they got a pitcher who is Top 3 talent this year, and could end up picking 8th, 12th, 15th, or whatever next year?

 

If they can't sign Appel, they basically "forfeit" this pick anyway, though I assume there's some type of compensatory pick for them next year if that happens.

There is no way they will go over to the point where they lose next year's pick. Appel is not worth that much. Also, if they don't sign him, they would get the #9 pick next year along with their other 1st round pick that will be determined at the end of the regular season.

[Guest USAFChief]

I hope he doesn't sign, and blows out his arm.

[IdahoPilgrim]

  StormJH1 said:

This is fascinating to me. Didn't they turn down preliminary offers from Houston of around $6 million? What exactly was the point of driving a hard bargain with the teams at the top of the draft board, if the teams further down below CAN'T offer more money by the rules?

 

That was the point of the new CBA - they were trying to reduce the impact of "signability" (draftees deciding who they're going to play for by telling teams whether they would sign or not) on the draft by basically predetermining how much each pick would be worth. Obviously, agents hate the new rules, and I think Boras is intentionally trying to spike the system before it gets off the ground. We'll see if it works.

[Brock Beauchamp]

  sbknudson said:

That was the point of the new CBA - they were trying to reduce the impact of "signability" (draftees deciding who they're going to play for by telling teams whether they would sign or not) on the draft by basically predetermining how much each pick would be worth. Obviously, agents hate the new rules, and I think Boras is intentionally trying to spike the system before it gets off the ground. We'll see if it works.

He's going to fail miserably. Everybody except agents like this rule. The owners, the front offices, the MLBPA... They're all supporters of this system.

 

Scott Boras can suck it.

[tobynotjason]

Law is in deep, deep speculation land (and not at all representative of industry consensus) when he says Appel is the best bet to go 1.1. You never really know how a draft is going to shape up until a couple months out, anyway.

 

Smart Pirates message boards are basically A-OK if he walks, content that next year's draft can't be worse. And lots of very smart folks are just not high on Appel at all: did you hear how underwhelmed Goldtein was on his podcast a couple months ago?

 

But as far as the link goes: Yeah, it's Heyman, ergo it's Boras. It's just posturing, and nobody knows anything.

 

This Pirates fan, FWIW, hopes they sign Buehler with most of the extra money, then offer Appel slot plus any leftover crumbs.

[twinsfan214]

Right I heard this too and it made no sense that he turned it down. Obviously then the Astros weren't going to take him first. The further down he went, the less his slot was worth. It's a great system. This poor kid either didn't do his research or hired the wrong agent (or both).

[gunnarthor]

  StormJH1 said:

Also, doesn't PIT have the option of exceeding the signing bonus cap this year and forfeiting their pick next year? Might it even make sense for them to do so, if they got a pitcher who is Top 3 talent this year, and could end up picking 8th, 12th, 15th, or whatever next year?

I think you can (and Boras probably is) make the argument that Appel now is worth more than what the Pirates should have expected with the 8th overall pick and next year's pick sitting at roughly #20 or worse if Pirates success continues. And I think the Pirates are likely to get an extra pick in next years draft after the first round due to their low revenue. Still, if I were the Pirates, I'd hope he signs for the 3.8 or so and starts his pro career early.

[tobynotjason]

  gunnarthor said:

I think you can (and Boras probably is) make the argument that Appel now is worth more than what the Pirates should have expected with the 8th overall pick and next year's pick sitting at roughly #20 or worse if Pirates success continues. And I think the Pirates are likely to get an extra pick in next years draft after the first round due to their low revenue. Still, if I were the Pirates, I'd hope he signs for the 3.8 or so and starts his pro career early.

Pirates pick next year for Appel would be #8b.

[nicksaviking]

I'm sure his stock will go up next year when he's a senior instead of a junior with another 120 hard innings tacked on his shoulder. Those college coaches at the big programs never abuse their pitchers in a way that would make MLB scouts cringe.