Article: Do You Trust Glen Perkins?

[Nick Nelson]

Over the first half of the season, Glen Perkins was about as close to being the Twins' team MVP as you could possibly expect from a reliever relegated to pitching a few innings a week.

 

Since the All-Star break, it's been a different story entirely. How much can Paul Molitor trust his longtime closer as the season winds down and every game carries enormous weight?Up until he successfully closed out a victory for the American League in the Midsummer Classic, Perkins had essentially been perfect in his ninth-inning role for the Twins. He converted all 28 of his save chances, held opponents to a .188 batting average, and allowed only four total extra-base hits in 37 innings of work.

 

During Minnesota's 20-win month of May, which put them into position to contend into the late days of September, Perkins was a constant force, closing out 14 of the Twins' 20 victories and picking up saves in 13 of his 15 appearances.

 

As good as he was that month, he only got better afterward. From the end of May through the All-Star break, he rattled off 13 straight scoreless appearances, allowing only three hits and two walks total. Perk's last two outings of the first half were the model of excellence and efficiency: he retired all six batters he faced on a total of 14 pitches.

 

Then, something went very wrong, and very suddenly.

 

Ever since he pitched the final inning in the All-Star Game, Perkins just hasn't been the same guy. He blew his first save of the year in his first outing after the break, and since then he hasn't been able to string together three consecutive appearances without allowing a run. In 18 second-half trips to the mound, the lefty has posted a 7.16 ERA while opponents have raked him to the tune of .356/.382/.658.

 

Wednesday night was just the latest example of Perkins' new found shakiness. He came in with a four-run lead in the ninth and let the Indians back into the game, coughing up two runs and allowing the tying run into the on-deck circle before finally retiring Yan Gomes on a pop-up to end it.

 

This is a level of struggle we haven't seen from the three-time All Star since he became closer, and it's clearly been tied to his health to some degree. But it leaves us to wonder: Can the Twins trust their most talented reliever here in the stretch run as they pursue the final wild-card spot in the American League?

 

Based on his numbers and his ongoing troubles on the mound, the obvious answer is no. But I'm not ready to go that far. First, I would point out that one night prior to his scare on Wednesday, Perkins relieved Ervin Santana with two on and nobody out in the eighth inning. He retired three straight batters -- including All Star Jason Kipnis and Rookie of the Year contender Francisco Lindor -- to protect a two-run lead. It might have been the biggest relief appearance the Twins have had all year.

 

And in general, even though things haven't exactly been smooth for Perkins lately, he has looked better, providing indications that his achy back is on the upswing. His velocity is basically in line with where it's been all year and he's still getting strikeouts while avoiding walks. In 10 2/3 innings over his last 12 appearances dating back to August 7th, he has 11 strikeouts and two walks. His .326 opponents' batting average and 5.06 ERA during that span can largely be tied to an egregious .394 batting average on balls in play. That simply won't sustain.

 

This also seems like a good opportunity to direct some credit to the Twins' manager and general manager. Paul Molitor has altered his usage of Perkins in response to the reliever's lessened effectiveness, keeping him out of tight save situations and often inserting him in lower-leverage spots. As a result, the Twins have gone 10-2 in Perk's last 12 appearances in spite of his struggles. Molitor's flexibility in this regard has been made possible by Terry Ryan's deadline acquisition of Kevin Jepsen, who provided another legitimate late-inning arm capable of stepping in and closing.

 

The presence of Jepsen means that the Twins don't need to lean quite as hard on Perkins, but there's no doubt that they'll need him pitching well if they're going to make a run at this thing.

 

Do you trust him?

 

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[howieramone2]

I trust Molly.

[nicksaviking]

When he was on early in the year, he seemed to have an ornery but confident demeanor on the mound.  Lately he's been ornery but has seemed more frustrated than confident.  That kind of tells me he doesn't yet trust himself.

 

I'll trust him again once he starts trusting himself.  I'm guessing that will come once he shakes off the rust, locates his fastball better and resumes his previous steady usage of his slider which had always been 25-30% of the time.  It'll happen, just not quite yet.

[stringer bell]

Confidence is a big part of it for Perk. I said on another thread that he's got two above-average pitches, but neither of them are dominating. He has to have great command and trust his stuff. Even with that, sometimes he will get hit. It seemed that most of the hard-hit balls in the first half were at someone, not now.

 

To the question in the title, I trust Perkins to be a reliable bullpen arm, but he's not elite.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Thank you for the analysis, Nick.

 

Perkins can't be trusted until he proves that he can be trusted. So continue pitching him in low-to-mid-leverage situations to find out where he's at it. The time of year is too important.

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

I trust him but not 100 percent. This middling level of trust only comes because of Perk's experience (and I shamefully admit I also place some trust in him because he is one of us). He did look good two outings ago.

[DocBauer]

Not talking about the immediate post All Star meltdown, but now, back and reportedly rested and rehabbed; are we having this conversation if the 2 runs didn't score the other night?

 

I think it's a fair question based on perception of the box score vs said post AS game implosion. Absolutely love Rosario and he has been mostly awesome in the OF this season. But that misplaced to a "double" changed the complexion of that half inning. And as a result, perhaps unfairly of Perk.

[Thrylos]

I trust him less than I trust Brian Duensing, Neil Cotts and Ryan O'Rourke at this point.

In other words, no.

[Kwak]

Whoa!  Perkins enters with a four-run lead, gets two outs, but serves-up a two-run HR and panic ensues?  Perk has often closed games with a lead, gets scored-on yet still "nails-it down".  That's the important point--closing it out.  1-2-3 innings are great!  Especially on six pitches, but the assignment is "close it out", not make it look easy.

Perhaps the Twins will change  (  )  to closer by whose turn it is, rather than using only one guy.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Kwak

[DaveW]

I trust him more than anyone not named Kevin Jepsen in the pen at this point. (yes even over Trevor May)

 

A Perkins at 85% is still better than the majority of our other options. I think he will be a big reason why this team someone sneaks into the playoffs.

[dbminn]

There has been no meltdown or implosion with Perkins. He was guilty of pitching through back/neck injuries for six weeks.

 

I trust both Perkins and Jepsen. Still, they're human, so they might blow a save sometime between now and the end of the season.

 

Oh - when Perkins is healthy, he's elite.

[DaveW]

 

I trust him less than I trust Ryan O'Rourke at this point.

In other words, no.

You trust Perkins less than a guy who has walked 9 and given up 12 ER in his last 8IP?

 

Harsh.

[Thrylos]

 

You trust Perkins less than a guy who has walked 9 and given up 12 ER in his last 8IP?

 

Harsh.

 

In their respective roles,  of course...  

[blairpaul715]

This will be the test now with Cabrera up as the tie breaking run................lefty vs righty, who will win????? Let the good guys win, please

[blairpaul715]

 

This will be the test now with Cabrera up as the tie breaking run................lefty vs righty, who will win????? Let the good guys win, please

Um.......i guess i dont trust him after that showing!!!

[Thrylos]

 

You trust Perkins less than a guy who has walked 9 and given up 12 ER in his last 8IP?

 

Harsh.

 

Harsh THAT

[DocBauer]

Watch the Tigers debacle.

 

Forget anything I may have said earlier.

 

No.

 

I hope my vote changes next season, if not this one.

[Thrylos]

 

I trust him more than anyone not named Kevin Jepsen in the pen at this point. (yes even over Trevor May)

 

A Perkins at 85% is still better than the majority of our other options. I think he will be a big reason why this team someone sneaks into the playoffs.

 

Famous. Last. Words.

[Comrade Bork]

Turns out, I don't.

[clank2000]

no

[Otto von Ballpark]

Carrying over my observation from the game thread:

 

Weird time to have Perkins basically equal his season high pitch count (he threw 28 tonight, and only topped it with a 29 pitch 4 out save against St Louis back in June).

 

What exactly was Molitor thinking? Not only does it cost us the game, it probably sets Perkins confidence level back a bit.

 

Given that everyone pretty much agreed he wasn't 100% or ready to assume his closer duties right away, that usage felt criminal.

[Old Twins Cap]

May on the shelf.  Need your best guys to step up.

 

That's not Glen at this point.

 

Bullpen will need to be rebuilt next year, from the bottom to the top.

 

Remember people:  relief pitcher reliability year to year is highly volatile.  Accept it and move on to some new pitchers, preferably young, strong arms coming up from within.

[DaveW]

Perkins should be shut down.

[Platoon]

Confidence is a big part of it for Perk. I said on another thread that he's got two above-average pitches, but neither of them are dominating. He has to have great command and trust his stuff. Even with that, sometimes he will get hit. It seemed that most of the hard-hit balls in the first half were at someone, not now.

 

To the question in the title, I trust Perkins to be a reliable bullpen arm, but he's not elite.

Agreed. He had more than one outing in the first half, where absolute rockets were right at someone. So this could be his BABIP is evening out. It had to be very low in the first half. Two other points. Perk can generally throw strikes like falling off a log, but hitting corners is not his forte. And, he has normally excelled in one situation. Ahead in the game by 3 or less (save) and starting the ninth inning. My memory tells me he has often struggled in other scenarios and low leverage situations. Edited September 26, 2015 by Platoon

[h2oface]

I never trust anyone with a neck beard. It seems to look even worse and makes him even more untrustworthy when he is not pitching well. 

[Riverbrian]

In an overall sense... I trust Perkins.

 

In a right now sense... I don't. He's hurt... tired or just plain slumping. He made some good pitches last night but he left a few too many where damage could be done and it was. 

 

However... Our pen isn't overflowing with options right now or this year to be honest. 

 

So I don't have an overall solution.

 

I think the issue goes back to late July. We needed more than Jepsen and Perkins not pitching well puts an exclamation point on that.  

 

Holland fell apart for the Royals and they have the bullpen to just shove him aside for a moment. Not saying it's reasonable to expect the Royals pen... just saying that we needed more improvement with the playoffs a possibility and we should have been preparing better for injury or an extreme case of the struggles in the final months. 

 

 

 

[Platoon]

Also, we are paying dealing for the FO aversion to velocity. I know they talk about finally "catching up with the Jones" as far as velocity goes. And they have drafted, and touted higher velocity pitchers. But they still keep sending the low 90's guys out there every day. High velocity pitchers strike out more people, and walk more people. It's the way it is. If you are going to wait for a guy who throws in triple digits, and paints the outside corner before you bring him up, then you are destined to watch Fien and Duensing for a long time.

[spinowner]

Do I trust Glen Perkins? No doubt in my mind. I trust that he'll do his best. However, I'd also trust myself in that way, although I don't think I could throw a baseball faster than about 35 mph. I think what Nick probably meant when he wrote the title of this thread is "Do you think Glen Perkins has the ability to perform at a high enough level during the rest of the regular season to provide meaningful help to the Twins in achieving their goal of qualifying for the postseason?" Of course, that's a bit wordy. But to answer that question, I'm afraid I have to say I doubt it.

Edited September 26, 2015 by spinowner

[Cap'n Piranha]

To quote Meatsauce, Glen Perkins should take two weeks off and quit.

[DrNeau]

 

To quote Meatsauce, Glen Perkins should take two weeks off and quit.

Ha ha. He said that on Power Trip?