Article: Twins Fall 5-4; Five Crucial Plays

[John Bonnes]

The Minnesota Twins fell to the Tigers 5-4 in a game equally doomed by questionable decisions and bad breaks. Let's look at the five plays that swung the game both positively and negatively (as judged by Win Probability Added) and see if we can divine how this one slipped away.

 

#5 Victor Martinez singles home the first run in the 1st inning. (+10% for DET)

 

Pitcher Phil Hughes started this game after he had not pitched in a game, either in the majors or in the minors, since he was put on the disabled list over a month ago. That meant that he would be on a limited pitch count (he threw 65 pitches) and nobody knew how effective he would be. Terry Ryan admitted before the game that they were only looking for Hughes to give them a chance.In the end, I suppose he did. He lasted three innings, and gave up three runs. Of course, that still meant that the Twins needed to rely on the back of their bullpen for those middle innings, which further exacerbates the decision. AJ Achter only gave up one-run in his mop-up role. But of course the Twins only lost by one run.

 

The Tigers grabbed the lead in that first inning, scoring two runs. But watching Hughes' pitches, there wasn't a lot of hope that this gambit would turn out as well as it did. Understandably, he looked rusty, throwing 10 balls in 23 pitches. But worse, he looked slow. He didn't throw a pitch over 91 mph that first inning, and never did the rest of the game, either. So he relied heavily on offspeed stuff. Even if you consider his results reasonably effective, that velocity might ring enough alarm bells to not start him on Sunday. That would mean more innings for Tyler Duffey, which is good news for everyone except Tyler Duffey's arm.

 

#4 Joe Mauer doubles home a run in the ninth to make the score 5-4. (+10% for the Twins).

#3 Miguel Sano strikes out to end the game. (+15% for DET)

 

Detroit's closer, Bruce Rondon, likes his heat. And why shouldn't he? It was clocking at 98 to 100 mph. I can't document each pitch he threw, but every time I looked at the speed gun for his first 17 pitches, he was throwing the screaming four-seam fastball.

 

Then up came Sano. Then out came the pitching coach. And then Rondon didn't throw a single fastball to Sano, throwing him three straight sliders, all for strikes that ended the game.

 

But that's not the painful part. The second and third of those sliders dove way off the plate and were only strikes because Sano was fooled and swung.

 

But even that isn't the painful part.

 

The painful part is that the first slider was a called strike because it HUNG. It floated up there (as much as an 85 mph pitch can float), slow and centered in the middle of the strike zone. But Sano didn't swing because he had watched Rondon throw 17 straight fastballs and likely didn't know exactly what the hell that was. It worked the way an eephus pitch works.

 

#2 - Miguel Sano singles, driving in two runs to make the score 4-3 in the 7th inning. (+17% for MIN)

#1 - Trevor Plouffe grounds into a double play to end the seventh inning. (+19% for DET)

 

After Sano's single, the Twins had runners on first and second base, were down by one run and, per FanGraphs, had a 45% chance of winning the game. That may not sound like a lot, but mathematically it was the closest they had been since that first run was scored by the Tigers. (And realistically, it was the closest they had been since the decision to start a guy who hadn't thrown a pitch in a game since August 9th.)

 

The second run from Sano's hit was scored by Aaron Hicks who reached on the most beautiful drag bunt I've seen from a Twins player since....I don't even know. Carew? It was gorgeous. I"m a sucker for drag bunts. I would rather see a gorgeous drag bunt than just about any other event in baseball and this might have been the best one I have ever seen. It was masterful. It's possible I'm not totally sober.

 

But the Twins best opportunity ended on Trevor Plouffe's double play. Plouffe has had terrible luck with GIDPs, and this one pulled him within one of the Twins all-time record for most in a season, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1970. (h/t to Aaron Gleeman.)

 

Remember when we would all beat up Mauer for his proclivity to ground into double plays? The most Mauer ever had in a season was 24. That year (2006) he grounded into double plays 18% of the time that he possibly could. This year, Plouffe has 27 and grounded into double plays almost 24% of his opportunities. That has killed his offensive value; despite pretty good overall statistics, he has a slightly negative WPA right now.

 

I don't think there is much that can be done about it. For his career, he's been pretty good about NOT grounding into double plays, usually doing so only about 10% of the time. But this year it's been a real problem. And today, along with a questionable pitching decision, and a hanging slider that wasn't crushed, it cost the Twins a crucial game in the Wild Card race.

 

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[Kwak]

"Everybody wins 50, everybody loses 50, it's what you do with the rest of them that decides your season".  It isn't clear if this was one of the 50 losses, or one of the 62 that is fought over.  Starting Hughes tonight with virtually no activity was asking for it--and that decision should be one of the five "plays" that determined the outcome. 

 

I disagree with the five selected--and their assigned weights.  DET's fifth run has to be one of the five.  Sano's 9th inning strikeout--I don't think that belongs.  The first two outs made were likely more important in determining the final score.

[Dantes929]

I  will never understand why a pitcher or a batter just gets inserted into the lineup after a month off.   The rotation has been just fine of late but they pay Hughes a lot of money so they need to put him in there?    Put him in the pen.   See how he does there for a week in lower leverage situations and then see how he does.    Duffey's arm is just fine as evidenced by how well he has thrown.  Stop making such a big thing about innings.    As Bert says, his arm hasn't fallen off and won't fall off.     I am guessing he is more likely to hurt his arm in the first two months of next season than he is the last month of this season.   I don't have any evidence to back up this statement but I doubt there is any to refute it.    Arbitrary innings limits are just that.  Arbitrary.

[theBOMisthebomb]

How much concern should we have regarding Sano's decreased productivity? It seems the league might have "figured him out" after his initial splash.

[Blake]

I understand where John is coming from, but...Duffey is approaching his innings limit for the year. Santana is not eligible for post-season. May is in the bullpen and not available to start in the playoffs.

 

That leaves Pelfrey, Gibson and and Milone to start in the playoffs, should the Twins get there.

 

Like it or not and even though the Twins are in a playoff race, the Twins probably need to get Hughes some innings just in case.

 

Baseball is a cruel game and sometimes there just are not any breaks.

 

Which is why baseball is the best game in the world.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Logan Darnell still exists, right?

 

I don't mean to bring up Berrios again, but this is another situation where he could have potentially been helpful. (Allowing us a short hook for any scuffling/injured/rehabbing starter.)

[Blackjack]

This may sound like a dumb question but how do you avoid hitting into double plays?? Its going to happen sometimes, isn't it??

[Otto von Ballpark]

This may sound like a dumb question but how do you avoid hitting into double plays?? Its going to happen sometimes, isn't it??

Not necessarily at that frequency. It is a real skill for some players. Relates to speed, contact, GB/FB.... heck, some guys can probably change their approach in DP situations just like they can in sac fly situations.

[USAFChief]

I'm not sure how they avoid it, but the Twins really had no business running Hughes out there for a guaranteed short start. Particularly since they had to have known his velo wasn't back.

 

I was sitting at home thinking..."first pitch breaking ball, Sano." That pitch was the proverbial gift from god.

[Old Twins Cap]

Sano better get used to curve balls and sliders because they are going to rain down on him until he proves he can handle them.

 

Baseball, game of adjustments.

[Jham]

What about Dozier's K with the bases loaded.  Sano bailed him out, but seriously, how long can we send him out there at the front of our line up?

[Boom Boom]

Not necessarily at that frequency. It is a real skill for some players. Relates to speed, contact, GB/FB.... heck, some guys can probably change their approach in DP situations just like they can in sac fly situations.

Yup...look for a pitch you can elevate, or hit it behind the runner.

 

The manager could help by starting the runners early.

[Seth Stohs]

 

This may sound like a dumb question but how do you avoid hitting into double plays?? Its going to happen sometimes, isn't it??

 

Great point... in reality, the difference between Miguel Sano's two-run single and Trevor Plouffe's ground ball double play was location of the ground ball. Had Sano's grounder been a few feet in either direction, it is a double play. 

 

Double plays are obviously not good, not something anyone wants, but I just don't see it as the fatal flaw that so many do. 

 

It was, however, a big play in the game, and I like that John sequenced those two plays together. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How much concern should we have regarding Sano's decreased productivity? It seems the league might have "figured him out" after his initial splash.

We shouldn't be concerned. This is a typical arc for a young player that thrives after a call-up. Pitchers and coaches acquire film on the player. They find his weak spots and exploit them, often by throwing an inordinate amount of breaking balls.

 

Now it's up to Sano and Bruno to adjust to the new approach.

[ThejacKmp]

Underrated moment from last night that you may have only seen if you were at the game: after Josephius Mauer hit his double in the ninth, there was a long delay before they brought in Nunez to run. When Nunez belatedly popped out of the dugout to run, Joe pounded one fist into his palm to express his sadness at not getting to run. Love seeing the guy want to run there.

 

JMP

[ThejacKmp]

 

Great point... in reality, the difference between Miguel Sano's two-run single and Trevor Plouffe's ground ball double play was location of the ground ball. Had Sano's grounder been a few feet in either direction, it is a double play. 

 

Double plays are obviously not good, not something anyone wants, but I just don't see it as the fatal flaw that so many do. 

 

It was, however, a big play in the game, and I like that John sequenced those two plays together. 

 

The only thing I could see doing it is hitting into a shift with guys on - there may be an argument for hitting away from the shift with a guy on first. That's not the case in this one since Plouffe is not overwhelmingly shifted but if a guy who gets shifted has double play numbers that went up the last two years, I imagine that would help explain.

[Mike Sixel]

My favorite line, John:

 

(And realistically, it was the closest they had been since the decision to start a guy who hadn't thrown a pitch in a game since August 9th.)

 

If only Berrios was allowed to play.....and Duffey's innings limit? Ugh. But, I guess expecting the Twins to realize that the myth of innings limits is true is expecting too much.

 

that said, at some point, Hughes has to come back into the rotation, doesn't he? Let's see....

 

Milone, Pelfrey, Gibson, Duffey are all available for the playoffs, and Santana can pitch in the regular season. Nope, Hughes could (should?) move to the bullpen. That would probably make them a better team this year, given where Hughes is health wise, imo.

[Steve Lein]

Had the same thoughts on the Sano at-bat (as our Twitter exchange confirms).

 

I sat there after that pitch going, "ugh...ahh...gah...dangit."

 

It was absolutely the pitch to crush, but there was just no way you could also say he should have swung at it given the situations.

 

The next two from Rodon were nasty, pitcher's pitches.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I would add as number 6, pinch hitting Danny Santana for Buxton in the 9th.  Santana has had 4 PA's (including last night's) since July 31, all as a PH, all of which resulted in outs.  He has a greater than 13/1 k/bb ratio, and OPS's .490 against righties.  Buxton was already 2-3 on the night, and is actually better against righties, OPS'ing .638, and has a better (but still bad) 8/1 k/bb ratio--fun fact: both Buxton and Santana have 5 walks on the year.  Buxton needed 121 PA's to do that, Santana 267.  By just about any metric, Buxton was a better bet to get on base to lead off the ninth.

[AlwaysinModeration]

 

 

I would add as number 6, pinch hitting Danny Santana for Buxton in the 9th.  Santana has had 4 PA's (including last night's) since July 31, all as a PH, all of which resulted in outs.  He has a greater than 13/1 k/bb ratio, and OPS's .490 against righties.  Buxton was already 2-3 on the night, and is actually better against righties, OPS'ing .638, and has a better (but still bad) 8/1 k/bb ratio--fun fact: both Buxton and Santana have 5 walks on the year.  Buxton needed 121 PA's to do that, Santana 267.  By just about any metric, Buxton was a better bet to get on base to lead off the ninth.

 

Plus I had called for Buxton to get 3-4 hits in the game, and it was a lot harder for him to do that from the bench.

[AlwaysinModeration]

That game last night was just "one of those games."  Twins hit a bunch of balls really hard in the first 2-3 innings, and they were all at people.   Dozier's double down the line in the first - how is that caught (by anyone other than Alex Gordon)? Tigers, on the other hand, hit at least a few seeing eye base hits. Would be good to check the hit speeds of Sano's GIDB and Victor Martinez's single.   If you reverse the outcomes of those two plays, the Twins would likely have been ahead in the game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Double plays are obviously not good, not something anyone wants, but I just don't see it as the fatal flaw that so many do. 

Not a fatal flaw, but DP avoidance can certainly be a skill and/or a mark of good performance.

 

At B-Ref right now, Plouffe is 6 runs above average with the bat, but that gets wiped out by him being 2 runs below average on the bases and 4 runs below in DP avoidance.  It matters.

[Mike Sixel]

If Plouffe hit where Dozier hits in the order, he'd have a lot less double plays.......it is largely a function of the fact he bats with guys on base, and he hits the ball hard (and he's slow).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Plouffe hit where Dozier hits in the order, he'd have a lot less double plays.......it is largely a function of the fact he bats with guys on base, and he hits the ball hard (and he's slow).

Even adjusting for opportunity, Plouffe has been bad at DP avoidance this year.  He's "delivered" on 24% of DP opportunities, according to John.  League average is 11%.

 

More meaningfully, you would want to look at who the baserunners are.  Plouffe has hit behind Vargas, then mostly Mauer, and now Sano.  I don't know if that is notably worse than who he has hit behind previously, though.

[woody knows all]

There are a lot of situations in baseball that we can't predict.  To try to determine 5 situations is impossible.  And as always hind sight is 20/20.  Sending May back out again in the 9th, because he was the best option, and giving up a run there changes the process for the bottom of the 9th.  Maybe a Susuki type hits a solo HR in the 8th, even though most would agree Vargas was a good idea for PH there.  

 

I would agree that Hughes starting after such a long lay-off was a huge gamble.  But if he pitches 5 shut-out innings, Twins are geniuses.  

[big dog]

 

I would add as number 6, pinch hitting Danny Santana for Buxton in the 9th.  Santana has had 4 PA's (including last night's) since July 31, all as a PH, all of which resulted in outs.  He has a greater than 13/1 k/bb ratio, and OPS's .490 against righties.  Buxton was already 2-3 on the night, and is actually better against righties, OPS'ing .638, and has a better (but still bad) 8/1 k/bb ratio--fun fact: both Buxton and Santana have 5 walks on the year.  Buxton needed 121 PA's to do that, Santana 267.  By just about any metric, Buxton was a better bet to get on base to lead off the ninth.

I saw Santana come to the plate and my thought was "what, we're not even TRYING to win?"

[Mike Sixel]

 

Even adjusting for opportunity, Plouffe has been bad at DP avoidance this year.  He's "delivered" on 24% of DP opportunities, according to John.  League average is 11%.

 

More meaningfully, you would want to look at who the baserunners are.  Plouffe has hit behind Vargas, then mostly Mauer, and now Sano.  I don't know if that is notably worse than who he has hit behind previously, though.

 

Thanks, I love actual data to make a point. I wonder how much strikeout rate matters.....is Plouffe generally a GB hitter, or does it spike with a guy on?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks, I love actual data to make a point. I wonder how much strikeout rate matters.....is Plouffe generally a GB hitter, or does it spike with a guy on?

Don't know about GB data, but his K rate has drops from 18.4% to 11.6% in DP situations (runner on 1st, less than 2 out).

 

His slash line in such situations, .260/.339/.438, .777 OPS, is pretty similar to his overall numbers of .250/.312/.443, .755 OPS.

[kellyvance]

Hey, stuff happens. Sano learned from that at bat, I guarantee you.

[jimbo92107]

How much concern should we have regarding Sano's decreased productivity? It seems the league might have "figured him out" after his initial splash.

Miguel Sano has been facing mostly junk since his first at-bat in the majors. Pitchers knew then, and they'll never forget what Sano can do to a fastball. For his part, Sano will always have to work the count just the way he's been doing, trying to corner the pitcher into that fatal 3-2 count, then mashing anything in the zone... or taking his walk.

 

What's unusual is seeing a rookie that is so experienced playing the cat and mouse game of pitch counts. Part of that game for Sano is not letting pitchers see a predictable pattern in his approach per pitch. Just as pitchers work to avoid tipping their pitches, a hitter must work to avoid tipping his intention to swing. If you take a deep breath, dig in a little more, or get a certain look, pitchers pick up on those signs and adjust accordingly. Also just like pitchers, hitters can bluff these signs and try to "set up" the other guy.

 

I haven't spotted anything specific about Sano's intention to swing, with one possible exception: When you see a big grin on his face, as a fan don't look away. When a pitcher sees that look, I can scarcely imagine their reluctance to throw a baseball in the zone.