If Hu sticks for a while as a #4 starter, which strikes me as the 75% outcome, it is a good get for the Rays but certainly not devastating for the Twins. Time value and all that.

The 75% outcome is that Hu sticks on an MLB roster for a couple of years.  The chance that he is a #4 starter are much lower.  This board continually overrates the chances of prospect success.  Duffey and his 43 AA/AAA starts and cup of coffee is approaching a 75% chance of sticking as a #4 starter.  Hu is A/A+ version of Duffey.

 

To put Hu into some perspective fangraphs ranked him in the #22-29 range (out of 79) that were dealt at the trade deadline in a group that was specifically outside of their top 200 prospects.  He is an interesting prospect but he doesn't have overpowering stuff (ceiling) and hasn't had success in the high minors. 

 

FWIW - Tapia ranked in the last 6 grouping out of 79 prospects that were traded at the deadline.  He is interesting but I am not losing any sleep over trading him.

 

 

Jepsen is looking really good right now, and the fact that he'll be around next year is good news as well.  I wouldn't call the Twins a winner in this trade until we see how good Hu and Tapia end up playing for the Rays.  

 

So far though, I'm really liking the trade.

 

tapia ended the year well but hu was a disaster and really struggled

 

tapia ended the year well but hu was a disaster and really struggled

 

Who are you talking about... I'm not so sure if that's still the case...   

 

 

 

Rays' Hu dazzles as Stone Crabs win FSL playoff opener

 

Finding a comfort zone on a new team can take time. For Tampa Bay right-hander Chih-Wei Hu, all it took was a shot in the playoffs.

In his sixth outing since being traded from the Twins, Hu led the Class A Advanced Charlotte Stone Crabs to a 1-0 win over the Daytona Tortugas for a 1-0 series lead in the Florida State League Championship Series on Thursday. Hu tossed a career-high eight shutout innings, scattering five singles and one walk while striking out nine.

 

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/4/5/6/148586456/cuts/Hu_new_cjmfbi8g_xxo9ldw4.jpg

Edited September 12, 201511 yr by jokin

Who are you talking about... I'm not so sure if that's still the case...

 

Rays' Hu dazzles as Stone Crabs win FSL playoff opener

 

Finding a comfort zone on a new team can take time. For Tampa Bay right-hander Chih-Wei Hu, all it took was a shot in the playoffs.

In his sixth outing since being traded from the Twins, Hu led the Class A Advanced Charlotte Stone Crabs to a 1-0 win over the Daytona Tortugas for a 1-0 series lead in the Florida State League Championship Series on Thursday. Hu tossed a career-high eight shutout innings, scattering five singles and one walk while striking out nine.

 

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/4/5/6/148586456/cuts/Hu_new_cjmfbi8g_xxo9ldw4.jpg

Well, he struggled with control in the regular season and was hit with the BABIP bug.

 

But it was four starts so it doesn't really matter.

When in Tampa for the games, friend of mine said the Rays fans were mad as hell at the Rays FO for getting back 2 low level minor leaguers.  He said we were 1 or 2 impact bats away for making a good run at the post season.  With our strong pitching, all we needed was a little more offense and instead the FO gets 2 minor leaguers.  What a slap in the face, it told us fans they were throwing in the towel.  He said we don't care about the future, we can win it now.

 

Boy, does that sound familiar.  That used to be the modus operandi of the Twins in the old Metrodome (trade for the future, the heck with now).   Amazing how things change.  All the games had 9,200 at Tropicana, the Rays just don't have the resources to make a big splash

The expectation that they would get a reliever at the trade deadline and not have to give up anything significant in terms of prospects is one that Ryan could not meet. Given Jepsen's number of successful high leverage situations to this point, the trade is a key to the Twins remaining in the hunt.

and was hit with the BABIP bug

Which was exactly why I didn't worry about the momentarily high ERA. He's still dominating (or nearly so) his level. Wait and see next year of course.

 

Which was exactly why I didn't worry about the momentarily high ERA. He's still dominating (or nearly so) his level. Wait and see next year of course.

Yeah, that's why I didn't even mention the ERA. A .407 BABIP is going to sting any pitcher over a short period of time.

Yeah, that's why I didn't even mention the ERA. A .407 BABIP is going to sting any pitcher over a short period of time.

... and without much underlying meaning.

... and without much underlying meaning.

Absolutely. The only thing Hu seems to have struggled with a bit is walks. Given his history, that's probably not an issue going forward.

When in Tampa for the games, friend of mine said the Rays fans were mad as hell at the Rays FO for getting back 2 low level minor leaguers. He said we were 1 or 2 impact bats away for making a good run at the post season. With our strong pitching, all we needed was a little more offense and instead the FO gets 2 minor leaguers. What a slap in the face, it told us fans they were throwing in the towel. He said we don't care about the future, we can win it now.

 

Boy, does that sound familiar. That used to be the modus operandi of the Twins in the old Metrodome (trade for the future, the heck with now). Amazing how things change. All the games had 9,200 at Tropicana, the Rays just don't have the resources to make a big splash

From the Rays perspective this really does smack of the Luis Catillo trade. That was good times.

 

They'll probably get about the same amount of value too.

The 75% outcome is that Hu sticks on an MLB roster for a couple of years. The chance that he is a #4 starter are much lower. This board continually overrates the chances of prospect success. Duffey and his 43 AA/AAA starts and cup of coffee is approaching a 75% chance of sticking as a #4 starter. Hu is A/A+ version of Duffey.

 

To put Hu into some perspective fangraphs ranked him in the #22-29 range (out of 79) that were dealt at the trade deadline in a group that was specifically outside of their top 200 prospects. He is an interesting prospect but he doesn't have overpowering stuff (ceiling) and hasn't had success in the high minors.

 

FWIW - Tapia ranked in the last 6 grouping out of 79 prospects that were traded at the deadline. He is interesting but I am not losing any sleep over trading him.

That's fair. I'm not all that high on Hu so I probably way overstated his value here, and I still wouldn't be upset with the trade if he hits his overly optimistic outcome.

Edited September 12, 201511 yr by drjim