Do you pull the trigger?

Seems like a fair deal. Much more reasonable than trade proposals that package several flawed players for a young catcher.

Howbout Kepler, Berrios, and Burdi for Shields, Hedges, and Kimbrel? Padres get salary relief, Twins get a catcher and serious arms. 

 

I'd also be willing to omit Berrios, and forego Shields. 

 

Just pondering this evening! Thanks for humoring me. 

Edited August 29, 201511 yr by GP830

No way do you trade Berrios for Swihart. In the off season, Ryan needs to focus on something like the following:

 

1. Trade Milone for a reliever and a short season prospect. This move frees up a starter slot, helps strengthen the pen, and adds a wild card prospect (David Arias, aka David Ortz was a short season wild card prospect the Twins got from the Mariners.

 

2. If any team will bite on E. Santana or Hughes, move either one--frees up a rotation slot and cash.

 

3. Look to sign either or both a free agent catcher and/or a free agent shortstop (unless you want to go with Escobar at short, which I am not opposed to doing). The free agent signing(s) should not require, as Santana did, giving up a draft pick.

 

4. Keep May in the pen with Perkins and Jepsen. A healthy Pressly should be there.

 

5. Select another Rule 5 starter to serve as long man in the pen.

 

6. Have a rotation of the following (assuming that you can get someone to take either E. Santana or Hughes (I assume that getting anyone to take Nolasco is a pipe dream although the Braves packaged Melvin Upton in a deal as a requirement for the other team receiving a top notch player in the trade).  

 

Gibson, Hughes or Santana (one gets traded), Berrios, Duffy, and Nolasco

 

7. Pen: Jepsen, Perkins, May, Pressley, Player X from Milone trade, (O'Rourke or Tonkin or Dean or Darnell or Achter) and Rule 5 selection -- 7 man pen

 

8. Do not resign Pelfrey, Hunter, and Nunez.

 

9. If you want to make a trade for either a catcher or ss rather than go the free agent route, then you could package some of the following players in some combination: Plouffe (will be a free agent in a couple of years), Hicks (sell high as he is having a really nice season); Rosario (as he is having a really nice season); Polanco, Santana (Infielder/Outfielder), Turner, Arcia, Vargas, Michael, Dean, Wheeler, Meyer, Baxendale, Wimmers. Starting with Polanco, this list includes A LOT of talent that would strengthen a lot of teams in terms of prospects in trades for veteran or major league ready players for the Twins.

 

One or more of these guys could also be packaged with Milone and/or with Hughes or E. Santana.

 

I would not trade both Hicks and Rosario. Keep one for sure with Buxton. I don't think Plouffe has the wheels, as KC's Alex Gordon does, to play Left Field or Right Field for the Twins. You could try him there, though, as you let Sano have 3rd base.

 

10. Finally, do not trade Berrios or Duffy. Do not trade Keplar and A. B. Walker II. Avoid trading Stewart and Gonsalves and Gordon. 

 

 

 

NO!

No. Berrios should be up now and helping the Twins, not traded. Trade the mediocre starters. 

No.  The long term success of the team depends on finding pitchers that can at least be #2's.  They can survive with a mediocre catcher.

In a nanosecond.  No way would Boston do that, though.  They've had many Berrios types, and they're still seeing which ones might contribute.  They'll keep Swihart and buy any pitching they need in the offseason.

No.

 

No.  The long term success of the team depends on finding pitchers that can at least be #2's.  They can survive with a mediocre catcher.

 

"At least #2?"  Wow.  Now there is optimism.  Even if there were some magic rule that said it's not a good idea to trade pitchers whose floors are MLB starters, Terry Ryan's already violated that by giving at least one away to get the type of reliever he could have picked up in the offseason.  In a season with no chance to win the division and therefore ridiculous odds for doing anything worthwhile.

 

If Ryan's not going to understand the value of a pitcher, he might as well make a great deal when given the chance.  Volatility and risk associated with a minor league pitcher, one whose upside isn't a #1, make Berrios' value quite a bit lower than Swihart's.

In a nanosecond. No way would Boston do that, though. They've had many Berrios types, and they're still seeing which ones might contribute. They'll keep Swihart and buy any pitching they need in the offseason.

Disagree the Twins should do it, I don't see the Swihart hype. Agreed the Red Sox wouldn't do it. With Dombrowski there, they'll be looking for more established arms based on his track record.

Swihart is a nice young catcher, but I would not trade Berrios for him. Berrios has been dominate lately in Rochester, and he is doing it as the youngest pitcher in the league.

 

Our starting pitching prospects in the minors leave something to be desired as well. Meyer has been extremeley disapointing. Kohl Stewart has not pitched like a high first round draft pick. Tyler Jay wasn't even a starter in college. He is an experiment at this point. Lewis Thorpe had TJ surgery, which pushes his timeline back. Gonsalves has probably been our best SP prospect besides Berrios, but he is a couple years away and hasn't been as good in A+ ball as he was in A ball.

 

Berrios is our best starting pitching prospect since Liriano. With the state of the rotation at the moment, we need to keep Berrios. Even if he busts it is a good gamble to take.

I'd rather keep Berrios and shop Buxton for a C.

 

"At least #2?"  Wow.  Now there is optimism.  Even if there were some magic rule that said it's not a good idea to trade pitchers whose floors are MLB starters, Terry Ryan's already violated that by giving at least one away to get the type of reliever he could have picked up in the offseason.  In a season with no chance to win the division and therefore ridiculous odds for doing anything worthwhile.

 

If Ryan's not going to understand the value of a pitcher, he might as well make a great deal when given the chance.  Volatility and risk associated with a minor league pitcher, one whose upside isn't a #1, make Berrios' value quite a bit lower than Swihart's.

You have misread.  I didn't say that Berrios was going to be a #2.  He has the potential to be a #2 and that is what they need to be a true contender.  There is almost no way for the Twins to contend unless they get two pitchers that profile as low end aces.  Berrios has that potential.  Possibly May but not much else that will be up in the next couple of years.

 

Of course there is risk with any pitching prospect but that is true of any prospect.  I remember reading somewhere that the top pitching prospects that have had success at AA/AAA have about the same chance of success as similarly ranked hitting prospects.  The prospects to watch out for are the Kohl Stewart types.  Great upside but they haven't had true MiLB success yet and become busts at fairly high rates.

 

Hu is nothing like Berrios.  TR didn't violate any such rule by trading Hu away.  It isn't a great value trade and Hu might become a useful MLB but Berrios has legit FOR upside.

I'd rather keep Berrios and shop Buxton for a C.

Yep, it's a good policy to give up on your top prospects after 20 games.

Nope.

Wonder how many people would had say 'no' to this trade if it were "Danny Santana" instead of "Berrios" after last season?  How many of those people would say "no" to that today?

 

Got to sell high.  Buxton is such a case.  If the Twins can get a couple of good arms or a catcher and a front line pitcher, they should do it.

 

Not Berrios though.  They are hurting.

Right now buxton is not a sell high. 

 

10. Finally, do not trade Berrios or Duffy. Do not trade Keplar and A. B. Walker II. Avoid trading Stewart and Gonsalves and Gordon. 

 

If you don't trade ABW2 it's because nobody is interested. 

 

No way do you trade Berrios for Swihart. In the off season, Ryan needs to focus on something like the following:

 

1. Trade Milone for a reliever and a short season prospect. This move frees up a starter slot, helps strengthen the pen, and adds a wild card prospect (David Arias, aka David Ortz was a short season wild card prospect the Twins got from the Mariners.

 

2. If any team will bite on E. Santana or Hughes, move either one--frees up a rotation slot and cash.

 

3. Look to sign either or both a free agent catcher and/or a free agent shortstop (unless you want to go with Escobar at short, which I am not opposed to doing). The free agent signing(s) should not require, as Santana did, giving up a draft pick.

 

4. Keep May in the pen with Perkins and Jepsen. A healthy Pressly should be there.

 

5. Select another Rule 5 starter to serve as long man in the pen.

 

6. Have a rotation of the following (assuming that you can get someone to take either E. Santana or Hughes (I assume that getting anyone to take Nolasco is a pipe dream although the Braves packaged Melvin Upton in a deal as a requirement for the other team receiving a top notch player in the trade).  

 

Gibson, Hughes or Santana (one gets traded), Berrios, Duffy, and Nolasco

 

7. Pen: Jepsen, Perkins, May, Pressley, Player X from Milone trade, (O'Rourke or Tonkin or Dean or Darnell or Achter) and Rule 5 selection -- 7 man pen

 

8. Do not resign Pelfrey, Hunter, and Nunez.

 

9. If you want to make a trade for either a catcher or ss rather than go the free agent route, then you could package some of the following players in some combination: Plouffe (will be a free agent in a couple of years), Hicks (sell high as he is having a really nice season); Rosario (as he is having a really nice season); Polanco, Santana (Infielder/Outfielder), Turner, Arcia, Vargas, Michael, Dean, Wheeler, Meyer, Baxendale, Wimmers. Starting with Polanco, this list includes A LOT of talent that would strengthen a lot of teams in terms of prospects in trades for veteran or major league ready players for the Twins.

 

One or more of these guys could also be packaged with Milone and/or with Hughes or E. Santana.

 

I would not trade both Hicks and Rosario. Keep one for sure with Buxton. I don't think Plouffe has the wheels, as KC's Alex Gordon does, to play Left Field or Right Field for the Twins. You could try him there, though, as you let Sano have 3rd base.

 

10. Finally, do not trade Berrios or Duffy. Do not trade Keplar and A. B. Walker II. Avoid trading Stewart and Gonsalves and Gordon. 

I like a lot of your points.  Twins definately need to trade a starter to open a rotation spot.  Milone makes the most sense because he is cheap.  They should be able to get something half ways decent for him.  I would keep Hughes.  His contract isn't that bad.  He will likely not replicate his 2014 season, but he should pitch better than he did this year.  I would be fine with trading Santana or Nolasco, but I doubt that happens.  I do not see the Twins will to eat the salary.  With Milone out, they have a spot open for Berrios or Duffy.  

 

I am fine with Escobar at SS.  I think they need to trade either Polanco or Santana.  Polanco does not field well enough to be an everyday shortshop (IMHO).  We have Dozier at 2nd and Plouffe or Sano at 3rd.  So I do not see room for Polanco.  Santana could a super utility guy if he figures out a plate approach.

 

The twins also have a glut of corner outfield/1st base/DH types: Arcia, AB Walker, Vargas, D. Hicks, Harrison.  I would prefer the defensive outfield of Rosario, Hicks and Buxton going forward.  Maybe package some of AA and AAA sluggers for major league ready catcher and a bullpen arm.

 

Another thought I have had, is why not let Mauer catch?  If he is only going to hit .270 with a little power at 1st base, there is not need to preserve him.  Let him catch 4 days a week and have Suzuki catch the other days.

I wouldn't do it because aren't going to outspend on the David Price type pitchers and the second tier FA pitchers like Nolasco, etc have not worked out. In my opinion, this was always going to be a lost season for Santana because you can't miss half a season and expect anything out of him.

 

Giving up on Buxton, give me a break.

Edited August 30, 201511 yr by TKGuy

I like a lot of your points. Twins definately need to trade a starter to open a rotation spot. Milone makes the most sense because he is cheap. They should be able to get something half ways decent for him. I would keep Hughes. His contract isn't that bad. He will likely not replicate his 2014 season, but he should pitch better than he did this year. I would be fine with trading Santana or Nolasco, but I doubt that happens. I do not see the Twins will to eat the salary. With Milone out, they have a spot open for Berrios or Duffy.

 

I am fine with Escobar at SS. I think they need to trade either Polanco or Santana. Polanco does not field well enough to be an everyday shortshop (IMHO). We have Dozier at 2nd and Plouffe or Sano at 3rd. So I do not see room for Polanco. Santana could a super utility guy if he figures out a plate approach.

 

The twins also have a glut of corner outfield/1st base/DH types: Arcia, AB Walker, Vargas, D. Hicks, Harrison. I would prefer the defensive outfield of Rosario, Hicks and Buxton going forward. Maybe package some of AA and AAA sluggers for major league ready catcher and a bullpen arm.

 

Another thought I have had, is why not let Mauer catch? If he is only going to hit .270 with a little power at 1st base, there is not need to preserve him. Let him catch 4 days a week and have Suzuki catch the other days.

For the millionth time, Mauer is never going to play catcher again.

NO.

Swihart is not just some random young catcher. He was a top 20 prospect coming into 2015, probably equal to Berrios rank right now, and his bat is starting to come alive in his rookie season.

 

If you have two equivalently ranked prospects, trading the pitcher for the position player is probably a net positive quite often.

 

Not saying it would be here, I haven't really seen either player, but you'd have to at least consider it strongly.

 

For the millionth time, Mauer is never going to play catcher again.

I'll say it for the millionth and one time: MAUER IS NEVER GOING TO CATCH AGAIN

Why would Boston trade Swihart? They need a catcher too. Given the depth at pitching this offseason it seems likely they will go get a big name. I don't see this being a good fit.

Yeah, I could see it being unlikely (especially from Boston's perspective), but I can't see it as a definite NO from the Twins side either.

Disagree the Twins should do it, I don't see the Swihart hype. Agreed the Red Sox wouldn't do it. With Dombrowski there, they'll be looking for more established arms based on his track record.

Boston can certainly afford to sign a more established arm, but Dombrowski's record isn't limited to that. He acquired Scherzer when he was inexperienced too.

 

But yeah, trading an asset like Swihart when you have Boston's resources seems unlikely.

No

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!