Article: Let's Talk About Tyler Duffey's Curveball

[Parker Hageman]

Filth flarn filth.

 

That’s the only thing that came to mind watching Tyler Duffey’s curveball bend space and time over the course of his last two outings.

 

After a rough introduction to the majors at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays hitters, Duffey has settled in and compiled two solid starts in a row against Cleveland and Baltimore. Ignoring his major league debut for a moment, Duffey has now struck out 15 batters over his last 13.2 innings pitched. Of those 15 strikeouts, 14 have come on his curve.Duffey, a former closer from Rice University and converted into a starter after the Twins drafted him, arrived at the organization with two viable above-average pitches in his fastball (four and two-seamers) and curveball, and he has also mixed in a work-in-progress change-up. Duffey told Twins Daily this spring that he considered his curve ball his best pitch and it shows. Any pitcher will tell you that the fastball is the foundation -- that sets up every pitch -- but the curve ball has been, as the French say, Le Unhittable.

 

With the exception of a few flares, a couple of seeing-eyes and one hanging fly which 40-year-old Torii Hunter in right failed to wrangle in, Duffey’s curve ball has been a zone-expanding, bat-missing machine. Just watch some of these swing that Duffey was able to induce in his start against Cleveland at Target Field last week.

 

http://i.imgur.com/shQKra1.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/JRiPVcg.gif

 

These are well-compensated, experienced, fully grown professional baseball players taking ridiculous swings usually reserved for hack golfers at a bachelor party after six beers while blindfolded.

 

To date, Duffey has done very little to disguise what is coming once he gets ahead: He has thrown curve balls 51% of the time in a pitcher’s count. Despite the ubiquity of scouting reports on pitchers, there is still some element of surprise that gives a rookie pitcher an advantage over hitters. You can hear about a pitcher’s repertoire and watch footage but until you experience it in the batter’s box and see it for yourself, the pitcher will have a slight edge. That may play a small factor in Duffey’s dominance over two consecutive lineups.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Kjlvpwr.gif

 

However even when knowing the pitch is coming it still can cause hitters to look foolish. For example, during Thursday night’s contest Duffey unleashed a doozy of an 0-2 curve that had Orioles’ slugger Chris Davis completely flummoxed. Davis swung at the ball -- a pitch that would barely make it across the plate in the air. The Orioles successfully lobbied the umpire crew to say that Davis had made the world’s slightest contact with the ball and was therefore foul. With new life, Duffey delivered the exact same pitch in the exact same location which Davis could not manage to nick this time for strike three.

 

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What makes Duffey’s curve ball so hellacious? It is the amount of spin he is able to generate.

 

According to his PitchFX spin rate, he is breaking off his curve at 1600 RPMs on average. Why is this important? Studies have shown that the higher the RPMs on breaking balls, the more the pitch moves and the higher the swinging strike rate typically is. Across the league, MLB pitchers have a 1500 RPM average (although ESPN/TruMedia’s database suggests it is closer to 1350). On the high end of that spectrum are guys like Oakland’s Sonny Grey (1898 RPM), Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (1858) and Houston’s Collin McHugh (1886).

 

It was in discussing McHugh’s acquisition that the Houston Astros shared a little secret in their methodology. According to the Bloomberg article in 2014 entitled “Extreme Moneyball”, the Astros analytics team identified McHugh, who was a castoff from both the Mets and Rockies organization, as a potential target because his curve registered such a high spin rate. McHugh’s curve was reaching nearly 2000 RPM. Duffey’s bender does not reach that strata but it is above average in spin rate nonetheless. Based on the 100 curves thrown, Duffey’s hook resides alongside Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Washington’s Gio Gonzalez and Arizona’s Jeremy Hellickson.

 

Through three starts, Duffey's curve sits among some of the game's best when it comes to spin. Who knows what lies ahead in the career for the big right-handed. Will hitters key in on his patterns? Will his fastball have enough oomph to support his curve? Will his change-up develop as a third option? If nothing else, Duffey's curve will prove to be a very valuable weapon out of the bullpen.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

He's gotten better each of his seasons in the minors.  I'm hoping that trend continues.  If so, he could be absolute steal.

[Shane Wahl]

It's wicked. It's Ice Cube/Korn Wicked. Non-Twins announcers have been "like What?"

 

If he adds a changeup that he can throw 10% of the time and continue to control that OKish fastball, he could be very good.

[Headfirst]

Doesn't matter how many times a hitter has seen a curve like that.  If he is able to locate that pitch down in the zone in a pitcher's count....gonna continue to be unhittable.

[Thrylos]

Here is a funny thing:  If you check the pitch values from pitchF/X, his curveball has a negative value, which means that is worse than average.   Bet that has to do with the amount of pitches he is throwing into the dirt (and hitters chase...)

 

Anyways.  Good to see him throwing non-strikes, good to see him throwing his curve and change > 40% of the time, and good to see him not throwing a two-seamer.  Major departure from the previous regime, which puts a smile on my face

So far so good, and I hope that he keeps his spot when Milone returns, but...

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's only two starts but Duffey has already exceeded my admittedly low expectations by a wide margin.

 

I hope he continues to prove me wrong(ish). I was never really down on Duffey, I simply didn't care and didn't expect much from him.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Should this pitch be called a curve, or would it more properly be termed a slurve, given it's break to the left?

[Parker Hageman]

Here is a funny thing:If you check the pitch values from pitchF/X, his curveball has a negative value, which means that is worse than average.

 

 

It is a positive metric based on the BIS data and a negative one based on PitchF/X. This usually is a pitch classification difference but there may be something lagging in the updates for one or the other.

 

To be clear, the negative value is based on the linear weights of the count, not the location of the pitch. The 8 hits surrendered on his curve, most came with two strikes and would dock him more for that because of the run expectancy of recording an out in two-strike situations. More importantly, it is a minuscule sample size. 

 

Doesn't matter how many times a hitter has seen a curve like that.  If he is able to locate that pitch down in the zone in a pitcher's count....gonna continue to be unhittable.

 

 

True, but hitters tend to adjust knowing a pitch is coming. If he has shown he will throw his curveball out of the zone in two-strike situations, they will lay off. Francisco Liriano had one of the game's best sliders but because he was unable to work ahead and was very transparent, hitters began to lay off this pitch in his last few seasons with the Twins.

 

 

 

 

 

[Old Twins Cap]

Looks to me like he's got two different curves.  One is a kind of 12 to 6 which I see most often on the outside to LH hitters.  The other breaks more like a slider, almost like a Corey Kluber slider, sharp and away from RH hitters.

 

The key for him is to throw the curve for strikes early in the count, get ahead, and then throw it out of the zone when he has the hitters behind.  The fastball is there to keep them honest.

 

Most amazing thing so far is that he has not hung many curves, the cement mixer that spins high in the zone and ends up deep in the stands.

[jimbo92107]

It's not just the rpm's on Duffey's curve, it's his command and confidence that's really impressive. He's bowling for strikes and spares, putting that curve just where he wants. The other thing is that his heater, an otherwise average 90 to 92mph pitch, is moved around the zone, but rarely down the middle.

 

Assuming that his last two performances are a baseline for what he's got to build on, Tyler Duffey could develop into a serious star pitcher. That's an ace curve ball, and he uses it to set up a well-placed two- and four-seam heater. If he also adds a good change-up, he may leave a lot of hitters looking like he just did in Cleveland and Baltimore.

 

Duffey's curve sets up a remarkably effective dilemma. Very few hitters will swing at it on the first pitch, which means Duffey gets a lot of called strike one's. Now the batter is behind in the count. What's coming next? Duffey's command allows him to place his curve anywhere he wants, including plenty of them below the zone. The curve can make a good hitter whiff by half a foot, while the threat of it can make them late on his average fastball. Plus, he's perfectly willing to throw the curve on ball 3 counts, repeatedly. Most pitchers eventually resort to a fastball if a guy fouls off a few curves. Duffey is happy to throw that tight hook all day.

 

Trickery is the best part. It's tons of fun watching a guy bend a baseball with precision and consistency. It's something every little pitcher wishes he could do, and Duffey is one of the few guys on the planet that appears to have mastered that magic trick. Maybe we should start calling him Dr. Hook.

[Parker Hageman]

It's not just the rpm's on Duffey's curve, it's his command and confidence that's really impressive.

 

 

rpms makes it nasty. the confidence is the byproduct of having a nasty pitch.

 

[d-mac]

 

It's only two starts but Duffey has already exceeded my admittedly low expectations by a wide margin.

 

I hope he continues to prove me wrong(ish). I was never really down on Duffey, I simply didn't care and didn't expect much from him.

 

I'm with you on this Brock. I wasn't expecting much, but I've been blown away by his performance and his nasty curve. That thing is legit. And he gets ground balls.

 

That sets up a bit of dilemma for next year. With those bad contracts to Hughes, Nolasco, and now Santana, what do we do with these young starting pitchers? In a perfect world I'd roll with Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, and Milone. That's a cheap, young, and effective rotation. But we've got 3 below average aging vets on scholarship blocking them now. 

[beckmt]

Hughes and Santana will be here, live with it.  Duffy is making a case for a starting role, leaving the Twins with a very unusual and pleasant dilemma, too much starting pitching. I would still eat money to rid us of the Nolasco contract and go with Hughes, Santana, Milone, May and Duffey to start next year or leave May in the pen as your 8th inning guy and have Berrios be another starter. 

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I was very impressed and excited watching that.  I agree with Parker though, the surprise may wear off quickly, I think we even saw it late in the game, while half the Orioles were still chasing the curve, a few of them had caught on.  To keep this up, he's probably going to have to be a little less predictable about when the pitch is coming, and he's probably going to have to miss closer to the zone.  If the book on you is that you have a good curve, at some point teams are going to drill into their players that if it's coming in low, lay off.  Those swings at pitches in the dirt won't consistantly be there once teams wise up.

 

These seem like fairly easily adjustments though, if they are needed.

[cgreuling]

 

Yeah, I was very impressed and excited watching that.  I agree with Parker though, the surprise may wear off quickly, I think we even saw it late in the game, while half the Orioles were still chasing the curve, a few of them had caught on.  To keep this up, he's probably going to have to be a little less predictable about when the pitch is coming, and he's probably going to have to miss closer to the zone.  If the book on you is that you have a good curve, at some point teams are going to drill into their players that if it's coming in low, lay off.  Those swings at pitches in the dirt won't consistantly be there once teams wise up.

 

These seem like fairly easily adjustments though, if they are needed.

 

I don't remember where I saw it but Molitor has a quote that said his curve started to flatten out in the 8th last night, mostly due to the long inning (didn't the Twins bat around in the top of the 8th?). If the bullpen was more consistent I doubt he would've been out there for that inning.

[Badsmerf]

I'm so pumped about Duffey! This guy is a converted closer, with an organization that has no successful history doing it, he wasn't nationally known, been under the radar his entire pro career. Talk about an underdog.

 

Thing is, kid is for real. Has life on his fb, good control, filthy breaking pitch, and a change that is coming along. Look at what Kluber did with Cleveland, under the radar guys can still succeed in this league.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't remember where I saw it but Molitor has a quote that said his curve started to flatten out in the 8th last night, mostly due to the long inning (didn't the Twins bat around in the top of the 8th?). If the bullpen was more consistent I doubt he would've been out there for that inning.

Last night was a perfect opportunity to ignore a stat line and test a young pitcher's mettle by sending him into the eighth in a blowout game. Duffey scuffled a bit and that's okay. Hopefully he learned from the experience.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I saw the 7th and 8th inning last night (the long delay worked to my benefit ) and I loved how Duffey and Suzuki seemed to call curveball for many consecutive pitches batter after batter. It was working, so why not? No need to "mix in" any other pitches last night when the Orioles are eating out of your hand. Obviously not every game will develop that way but yeah Duffey is fun to watch right now and very glad to know there is some sound science behind his success. He will also throw a fastball inside for a ball, just to shake the batter up a bit. Love it.

[twinsnorth49]

I thought he did a great job getting ahead in the count and keeping guys off balance by mixing in that curve a lot on first pitch, but not too much that anyone could really sit on it. Not that he left it many places that sitting on it would help much anyway. He changes speeds enough with his fastball that if he ever develops his change up enough to really trust it he could be a tough nut to crack if his location is good. 

[jimbo92107]

 

rpms makes it nasty. the confidence is the byproduct of having a nasty pitch.

True, but vital to Duffey's effective use of his nasty curve is his ability to spot it reliably. Alex Meyer's curve is nasty, but he couldn't throw it in the same spot twice to save his life. I've seen Duffey drop his nasty curve a foot behind home plate in the dirt, same spot, getting hitters to whiff over it by up to a foot. I've seen him speed it up, slow it down, throw it high and low, and pick the back door with it on a consistent basis.

 

What's funny is that in the prospect bio, Duffey's curve is rated 50, which is about the same as everybody else. Berrios and Tyler Jay have curves rated 55. Better than Duffeys??

 

Overall, 45...isn't that the score almost everybody gets?? Those number scores must be limited to miles per hour or something.

Edited August 21, 2015 by jimbo92107

[Parker Hageman]

What's funny is that in the prospect bio, Duffey's curve is rated 50, which is about the same as everybody else. Berrios and Tyler Jay have curves rated 55. Better than Duffeys??

 

 

Yeah, this was interesting. Baseball Prospectus had an "eyewitness" report from a 2014 outing and just called the pitching slightly above average. 

 

[zenser]

My wife and I were at the game against Cleveland in very good seats behind home and his curve was just filthy.  One of the better ones i have seen in person.

[d-mac]

 

Hughes and Santana will be here, live with it.  Duffy is making a case for a starting role, leaving the Twins with a very unusual and pleasant dilemma, too much starting pitching. I would still eat money to rid us of the Nolasco contract and go with Hughes, Santana, Milone, May and Duffey to start next year or leave May in the pen as your 8th inning guy and have Berrios be another starter. 

 

You forgot about Gibson.

[DJL44]

Plays well with Suzuki too. Suzuki is good at blocking pitches in the dirt and you don't need to frame a pitch like that. You're fooling the batter, not the umpire.

[TheLeviathan]

 

True, but vital to Duffey's effective use of his nasty curve is his ability to spot it reliably. Alex Meyer's curve is nasty, but he couldn't throw it in the same spot twice to save his life. I've seen Duffey drop his nasty curve a foot behind home plate in the dirt, same spot, getting hitters to whiff over it by up to a foot. I've seen him speed it up, slow it down, throw it high and low, and pick the back door with it on a consistent basis.

 

What's funny is that in the prospect bio, Duffey's curve is rated 50, which is about the same as everybody else. Berrios and Tyler Jay have curves rated 55. Better than Duffeys??

 

Overall, 45...isn't that the score almost everybody gets?? Those number scores must be limited to miles per hour or something.

 

More evidence for the idea that scouting reports of minor leaguers should be taken with a huge grain of salt.  Most scouts just don't see enough of players.

 

It's the ultimate over-reach based on small sample size and yet, somehow, everyone just takes these reports at face value.

[jimbo92107]

 

More evidence for the idea that scouting reports of minor leaguers should be taken with a huge grain of salt.  Most scouts just don't see enough of players.

 

It's the ultimate over-reach based on small sample size and yet, somehow, everyone just takes these reports at face value.

Exactly. Greg Maddux: Fastball 45, Curve 45, Control 55.... !

[Turd Furgeson]

 

More evidence for the idea that scouting reports of minor leaguers should be taken with a huge grain of salt.  Most scouts just don't see enough of players.

 

It's the ultimate over-reach based on small sample size and yet, somehow, everyone just takes these reports at face value.

 

It's more evidence that not all scouts are the same and that its very difficult to predict the future. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's more evidence that not all scouts are the same and that its very difficult to predict the future. 

 

Even moreso when all you see is a handful of games most of the time.  National scouting services aren't exactly employing a guy to sit and watch a team every game.

 

The future is extremely difficult to predict, infinitely moreso when you only see the future potential 6-10 times a year.

Edited August 22, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[Loosey]

It would be nice for the Twins to have an unheralded prospect come in and exceed expectations by a wide margin (Dozier is one, Johan Santana is another).  I know there have been players who have come in and contributed but it would be nice to get another All-Star level guy develop above where their "ceiling".

[Otto von Ballpark]

More evidence for the idea that scouting reports of minor leaguers should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Most scouts just don't see enough of players.

 

It's the ultimate over-reach based on small sample size and yet, somehow, everyone just takes these reports at face value.

To be fair, I think using two Duffey starts to condemn scouting reports is perhaps a greater example of an over-reach based on a small sample...