Article: Twins Explosive Bullpen Had A Long Fuse

[Vanimal46]

 

Yep.  Understand.  But I think the mindset is still that Johan was a rule 5 guy and who knows what other treasures are buried there?  I'd be curious to see how many rule 5 guys actually stick around for more than a cup of coffee. It seems like we keep rolling the dice in a losing game.

 

Just a quick google search brought up this article.. And if these are the "best" rule 5 picks in recent memory, you may be right that it's rolling the dice in a losing game. 

 

One interesting note in this dated article, "teams made 232 selections in the major league Rule 5 draft from 1999-2012, which places the odds of landing an all-star-level talent at four out of 232—or 1.7 percent. Even if we count all 13 players above as smashing successes, the odds of finding another one are long: 5.6 percent, or about one in 20 Rule 5 picks."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/how-to-make-the-rule-5-draft-matter-again/ 

[Zachary]

 

Hind site is 20-20.  No doubt it would have been nice to have May the last few days.

 

 

Yeah there is nothing hindsight about what happened in the seventh inning last night. A high number of Twins fans foresighted that. 

[Boom Boom]

IMO the rule 5 approach is, more than anything,TR trying really hard to get a player for nothing. The ultimate low-cost approach.

 

IMO, you have to weigh that against the possibility of the current situation playing out. The bullpen is an unmitigated disaster, and Graham has been hidden and protected all season, in effect wasting a roster spot that could be used to make some improvement.

[jimbo92107]

A big old yuppers for John and Seth. The only saving grace for this hot mess in the pen is that things should get a lot better over the next couple years.

 

A baseball team is a synergy of many pieces working together. Failure of one part can bring down the whole thing, but sometimes another part can compensate. The Twins had a good thing going in last night's game until they depended on two unreliable pieces, O'Rourke and Graham, who quickly pitched a 4-1 lead into a 4-5 deficit. The rest of the story was even more unreliable pitching.

 

As the Twins have done for several years now, they depended too heavily on older players to continue producing at peak levels, until those players got tired or injured. Perkins and Torii Hunter are good examples of riding a good old horse until it breaks down. Then they found themselves depending on untested, unreliable players like Graham and O'Rourke, who as expected, found a way to fail.

 

The Yankees still have a better hitting lineup than the Twins, which didn't help. They still have A-Roid, which was a killer. I'll continue to argue that intentionally walking A-Roid with the bases loaded was the logical move for Graham. Maybe even plant one in his ear. Bastard's been leaning in his whole career.

 

Anyway, there is no clear way forward from this, other than increased player development. It's too late and too expensive to trade for half a relief staff, so the Twins have cornered themselves into calling up Berrios, Tonkin, maybe Taylor Rogers and Logan Darnell, just to get some fresher arms in there, despite their youth and inexperience. These guys will take their lumps just like Graham and O'Rourke have been, but at least some of them have a future with the club.

 

With the starting rotation and the bullpen degenerating into a shambles, it's time to start cutting and pasting together a staff for next year. Guys like Milone and Pelfrey may have some modest trade value, while a guy like Duensing is sputtering near the end of his career. Graham needs work in AAA; Twins should either make a trade deal for him or hand him back to the Braves. Either way, he's out of the pen.

 

If I were Terry Ryan (perish the thought) I would pull some moves that would reshape the team quickly. I'd DFA Duensing, trade Milone and Pelfrey for whatever, then bring up Berrios, Tonkin, and Jason Wheeler, the big lefty in AA. All are currently on the 40-man roster. Sink or swim boys, take yer lumps and learn. Sadly, I'd leave May in the pen as the traditional one guy the Twins burn up. Jepsen becomes the closer. Perkins goes on the DL for the rest of the season. Rest, rehab, see ya next year, Perk.

 

Let's see, what else is on the shopping list...buy lighter fluid for the townspeople's torches... Call up Max Kepler and bat him third, in front of Sano. Call up Vargas as DH/1B, bat him behind Sano. Call up Buxton, bat him first. Trade or DFA Robinson. Bench Hunter, platoon Mauer with Vargas, rotate Kepler with Hicks and Rosario in the corners. DFA Nunez, call up Polanco to SS.

 

This at least keeps things interesting, in the sense of the Chinese curse.

[nicksaviking]

 

One interesting note in this dated article, "teams made 232 selections in the major league Rule 5 draft from 1999-2012, which places the odds of landing an all-star-level talent at four out of 232—or 1.7 percent. Even if we count all 13 players above as smashing successes, the odds of finding another one are long: 5.6 percent, or about one in 20 Rule 5 picks."

 

Yes, finding a star is remote with the Rule V, however is that the bar to set?  Shouldn't the goal simply to upgrade either now or the future?  Even with last night, Graham has yet to be the worst guy in the bullpen one time this year, and before he got hurt, Pressly was the only guy aside from Perkins that I had any interest in keeping.  Neither guy is exciting, but I'd rather have them than the rest of the circus.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Who's Brad Boyer?

 

I have no problem stashing JR Graham in the bullpen if the bullpen is much, much better. But it's not...

[David HK]

Grrrrrr...!!!  I cannot for the life of me understand why Graham was in against ARod.  That makes not one iota of sense.  Molly hasn't been dealt a decent deck from TR, but my God, you've got your only solid choice sitting on the damn bench in that situation.  So he threw 50 pitches the other night?  SO WHAT!!!!!  He's 25 by-God years old!  He's a 240 pound hoss of a young man, get his behind out there on that mound, and give us a chance to win!  Molly, Pelf gave you a heck of a start, and you blow it (blow being the optimal verb there), by sticking sub-standard product out there in the most crucial inning of the game.

 

Mr. M, you were one of my faves for many years.  Exemplary player on and off the pitch.  But you suck as a manager.  Period.

[David HK]

 

A big old yuppers for John and Seth. The only saving grace for this hot mess in the pen is that things should get a lot better over the next couple years.

 

A baseball team is a synergy of many pieces working together. Failure of one part can bring down the whole thing, but sometimes another part can compensate. The Twins had a good thing going in last night's game until they depended on two unreliable pieces, O'Rourke and Graham, who quickly pitched a 4-1 lead into a 4-5 deficit. The rest of the story was even more unreliable pitching.

 

As the Twins have done for several years now, they depended too heavily on older players to continue producing at peak levels, until those players got tired or injured. Perkins and Torii Hunter are good examples of riding a good old horse until it breaks down. Then they found themselves depending on untested, unreliable players like Graham and O'Rourke, who as expected, found a way to fail.

 

The Yankees still have a better hitting lineup than the Twins, which didn't help. They still have A-Roid, which was a killer. I'll continue to argue that intentionally walking A-Roid with the bases loaded was the logical move for Graham. Maybe even plant one in his ear. Bastard's been leaning in his whole career.

 

Anyway, there is no clear way forward from this, other than increased player development. It's too late and too expensive to trade for half a relief staff, so the Twins have cornered themselves into calling up Berrios, Tonkin, maybe Taylor Rogers and Logan Darnell, just to get some fresher arms in there, despite their youth and inexperience. These guys will take their lumps just like Graham and O'Rourke have been, but at least some of them have a future with the club.

 

With the starting rotation and the bullpen degenerating into a shambles, it's time to start cutting and pasting together a staff for next year. Guys like Milone and Pelfrey may have some modest trade value, while a guy like Duensing is sputtering near the end of his career. Graham needs work in AAA; Twins should either make a trade deal for him or hand him back to the Braves. Either way, he's out of the pen.

 

If I were Terry Ryan (perish the thought) I would pull some moves that would reshape the team quickly. I'd DFA Duensing, trade Milone and Pelfrey for whatever, then bring up Berrios, Tonkin, and Jason Wheeler, the big lefty in AA. All are currently on the 40-man roster. Sink or swim boys, take yer lumps and learn. Sadly, I'd leave May in the pen as the traditional one guy the Twins burn up. Jepsen becomes the closer. Perkins goes on the DL for the rest of the season. Rest, rehab, see ya next year, Perk.

 

Let's see, what else is on the shopping list...buy lighter fluid for the townspeople's torches... Call up Max Kepler and bat him third, in front of Sano. Call up Vargas as DH/1B, bat him behind Sano. Call up Buxton, bat him first. Trade or DFA Robinson. Bench Hunter, platoon Mauer with Vargas, rotate Kepler with Hicks and Rosario in the corners. DFA Nunez, call up Polanco to SS.

 

This at least keeps things interesting, in the sense of the Chinese curse.

Yee haw!  I'm gettin' in line with my torch!  Or passing out the axe handles, anyways--

I've gotten off on some good stream of conciousness rants here, but that, Mr. Jimbo was a doozy.  I'm witcha all the way!  

[savvyspy]

What is JR Graham's true upside? Because if torpedoing your bullpen for a year so you get another AAA 4.00+ ERA bullpen arm like Ryan Presley is the goal then you are doing it wrong.

 

Its too late to fix this year but can we please stop this practice moving forward? The Rule 5 draft should be an afterthought not the central building block that it seems to be for this front office.

[Eris]

 

If I were Terry Ryan (perish the thought) I would pull some moves that would reshape the team quickly. I'd DFA Duensing, trade Milone and Pelfrey for whatever, then bring up Berrios, Tonkin, and Jason Wheeler, the big lefty in AA. All are currently on the 40-man roster. Sink or swim boys, take yer lumps and learn. Sadly, I'd leave May in the pen as the traditional one guy the Twins burn up. Jepsen becomes the closer. Perkins goes on the DL for the rest of the season. Rest, rehab, see ya next year, Perk.

 

Berrios is not on the 40 man roster and does not need to be put on the 40 man roster at the end of the season.  By bringing him up to pitch a few games, one less person can be protected on the 40 man roster and subject to the rule 5 draft.  This has been discussed elsewhere on TD.  

[twinssouth]

Great stuff all. Graham doesn't deserve to be on the roster. A trade should have been worked out with Atlanta since they thought that highly of him then he could have been in AAA working on some things, waiting for a call up, just like all the other pitchers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Berrios is not on the 40 man roster and does not need to be put on the 40 man roster at the end of the season.  By bringing him up to pitch a few games, one less person can be protected on the 40 man roster and subject to the rule 5 draft.  This has been discussed elsewhere on TD.  

While I normally agree that it's a bad idea to add guys to the 40 man before they need to be added, this is a special situation. The Twins are floundering and they need help. Berrios is their best chance to receive that help.

 

Would anyone here shed a tear if the Twins lost the likes of Logan Darnell?

[tobi0040]

 

While I normally agree that it's a bad idea to add guys to the 40 man before they need to be added, this is a special situation. The Twins are floundering and they need help. Berrios is their best chance to receive that help.

 

Would anyone here shed a tear if the Twins lost the likes of Logan Darnell?

 

Would anyone here shed a tear if the Twins lost the likes of _________(insert 15 players from the 40 man)

[whydidnt]

 

While I normally agree that it's a bad idea to add guys to the 40 man before they need to be added, this is a special situation. The Twins are floundering and they need help. Berrios is their best chance to receive that help.

 

Would anyone here shed a tear if the Twins lost the likes of Logan Darnell?

Good point, plus if you think there is good chance that Berrios is one of your best 5 starters in 2016, he's going to need a spot before 2016 rosters are set anyway. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would anyone here shed a tear if the Twins lost the likes of _________(insert 15 players from the 40 man)

No, but it's fair to think they'll only swap pitcher-for-pitcher on the 40 man.

[tobi0040]

 

No, but it's fair to think they'll only swap pitcher-for-pitcher on the 40 man.

 

Okay.  I am guessing you can find five that are not helping right now and won't be on the 40 man next year.  If we really want to live on the edge we could go into the rule 5 with guys like Darnell or Thompson unprotected.

[Kwak]

Starting May wasn't the problem!  Please recall that May was barely used as a RP anyway.  Molitor uses the pen very much like Gardenhire--abuses it!  Fans really don't notice the incessant use of 4,5, and even more pitchers to win--especially home games--early in the season.  It simply appears as if everybody (manager too!) is just doing their job.  But no, they are not!  Pitch count is still worshiped.  "Getting the right match-up" in the late innings is the norm.  Why?  Because the pitcher tasked either isn't very good or because the manager just loves playing "chess" on the diamond.

 

Compare the two teams in the two games.  NYY:  sailing along in game 1 (after what had to have been a gut-wrenching series vs. Toronto) until their SP is injured and replaced in the second inning.  Yikes!!  Sure as snuff, their bullpen got lit-up because they had to use marginal, and perhaps over-used RPs.  But,  here's a difference--Betances (their "8th inning guy") pitched 2+ innings!  NYY "needed someone to step-up" and so Betances was tasked.  Would the Twins use their "8th inning guy" for 2+ innings?  No.

 

Game two:  NYY's BP is weakened, but the Twins batters are swinging away at near anything.  NYY's batters are patient, taking pitches, and making Pelfrey "work".  Pelfrey gets into trouble in the 6th, and what happens? Darn Pelfrey has thrown 103 pitches, he's "in trouble"--so summon the BP.  What??  This (purportedly) BP has come in the 6th?  Can't pelfrey "step-up" and pitch 110-120 pitches to finish the 6th?  Or, even 135 to go 7 innings?  Nope, the Twins worship their pitch-count managing and RP's be damned.  

 

[John Bonnes]

 

John, how were they "forced" to use O'Rourke and Graham when they did last night? May was on 3 days rest, as many days rest as Duffey had on Saturday.

I haven't been able to confirm, but was Molitor saving May for a later inning? If so, that is massive bullpen mismanagement...

 

Molitor said his plan was to save May for later in the game because Perkins (and I suspect Jepsen & Fien) was unavailable. I actually thought, after I had hit publish, that it might have been cool to throw together a table showing who had pitched the last few days and how many pitches each had thrown so it was clearer what Molitor's strategy was. That would have been a good addition.

 

I suppose in the classic "why save your best pitcher for the end" argument, Molitor could be criticized for that. I won't. I think he wanted May for the 9th and maybe some of the eighth and that was completely logical given that it was a close game and these games almost always need relief like that. Those innings are higher leverage than the 7th, because the Twins have fewer opportunities to come back after the 8th and none after the 9th. 

 

The other problem with inserting May there is that it requires him warming up for an inning he might never pitch and you can only do that so many times per game. If O'Rourke gets Gardner out, then May is warmed up and likely not coming into the 8th. And then he warms up again eighth when things looked dicey and might not be used. And then he warms up in the ninth. And let's not forget that he could've been warming up in the 6th for the same reasons. 

 

Sooner or later you just need to accept that you're going to need 3-5 arms to get through those innings one way or the other and it doesn't do you any good to get out of the 7th if you can't get out of the 9th. There is some game theory there that I don't think we've truly unpacked - kinda like keeping your best cards in your hands late when taking tricks in a card game. It makes sense to me. 

[tobi0040]

 

Molitor said his plan was to save May for later in the game because Perkins (and I suspect Jepsen & Fien) was unavailable. I actually thought, after I had hit publish, that it might have been cool to throw together a table showing who had pitched the last few days and how many pitches each had thrown so it was clearer what Molitor's strategy was. That would have been a good addition.

 

I suppose in the classic "why save your best pitcher for the end" argument, Molitor could be criticized for that. I won't. I think he wanted May for the 9th and maybe some of the eighth and that was completely logical given that it was a close game and these games almost always need relief like that. Those innings are higher leverage than the 7th, because the Twins have fewer opportunities to come back after the 8th and none after the 9th. 

 

The other problem with inserting May there is that it requires him warming up for an inning he might never pitch and you can only do that so many times per game. If O'Rourke gets Gardner out, then May is warmed up and likely not coming into the 8th. And then he warms up again eighth when things looked dicey and might not be used. And then he warms up in the ninth. And let's not forget that he could've been warming up in the 6th for the same reasons. 

 

Sooner or later you just need to accept that you're going to need 3-5 arms to get through those innings one way or the other and it doesn't do you any good to get out of the 7th if you can't get out of the 9th. There is some game theory there that I don't think we've truly unpacked - kinda like keeping your best cards in your hands late when taking tricks in a card game. It makes sense to me. 

 

I think you can lose a game in the 7th, as easily as the 8th or 9th.  We have certainly seen that this year.  It is part strategy, but managers with better players tend to make the best decisions.  Molly's choices here don't always make most sense, but five of the seven tools in his toolbox are not good tools. One of the good two appears to be playing hurt and  it shows.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

John, I accept that bullpen plan under normal circumstances. But these were not normal circumstances. O'Rourke was facing RHB in a close game in the 7th. Our other options were mop-up Graham and Achter. To let them blow a 3-run lead to the heart of the order in the 7th without using May was criminal.

 

Nor am I sure why May had to be limited to 4-5 outs, tops. I think he recorded 8 outs or so in his last outing, despite not being particularly sharp, with 3 full days of rest since. In a close game against the Yankees, I would sure as heck rather try throwing May for 8 more outs if he was able, than let Graham throw with the lead on the line just so I could limit May to 4-5 outs.

Edited August 19, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

Oh look, May got one out today, with a 1 run deficit. How cute.

 

Hope he can vulture another win...

[Twinfan603]

Molitor had Graham pitch in a bandbox in a key spot despite all the evidence in the world that he is not ready for those situations. 

 

edit: never mind to the rule-5 draft stuff, I'm dumb : )

[whydidnt]

 

Also, for those saying we've needed to keep Graham in the bullpen to hold onto him, that isn't true. He's been on the roster for the requisite 90-days and thus he is officially and irrevocably a part of the organization now. They could have sent him down at any point in the past few weeks when he was struggling. Instead, Molitor had him pitch in a bandbox in a key spot despite all the evidence in the world that he is not ready for those situations. 

I don't think this is accurate. Rule 5 guys have to stay on the Major League roster for the entire season or be offered back to the previous team. Not saying he should have been pitching in that situation, just that if the Twins want to keep him, he's got to be on the 25 man all year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, for those saying we've needed to keep Graham in the bullpen to hold onto him, that isn't true. He's been on the roster for the requisite 90-days and thus he is officially and irrevocably a part of the organization now. They could have sent him down at any point in the past few weeks when he was struggling. Instead, Molitor had him pitch in a bandbox in a key spot despite all the evidence in the world that he is not ready for those situations.

Incorrect. He could be placed on the DL, but he can't be sent down. The 90 active days requirement is to prevent teams from stashing Rule 5 picks on the DL all season.

[Twinfan603]

 

I don't think this is accurate. Rule 5 guys have to stay on the Major League roster for the entire season or be offered back to the previous team. Not saying he should have been pitching in that situation, just that if the Twins want to keep him, he's got to be on the 25 man all year.

Yeah my bad, the 90-day period refers to the player being active. I got a little confused by a tweet I saw.

[nicksaviking]

 

What is JR Graham's true upside? Because if torpedoing your bullpen for a year so you get another AAA 4.00+ ERA bullpen arm like Ryan Presley is the goal then you are doing it wrong.

 

Its too late to fix this year but can we please stop this practice moving forward? The Rule 5 draft should be an afterthought not the central building block that it seems to be for this front office.

 

Aside from May's botched BP experience, I think Pressly was by far the 2nd best option in the pen this year.

 

Edit: I feel confident enough after looking at the stats that I will strike this part from my statement.

[Rosterman]

Not alot of bullpen options? Well, we had Caleb and let him walk. That's probably fine, but why is Thompson still on the 40-man then. Would love to see Oliveros and his heat, or even the wildness of Stephen Pryor, both both have managed to work themselves out of a tryout by being on the DL for the second half of the season.

 

That leaves Logan Darnell. Give the guy another chance. Michael Bowden, not impressing anyone. Mark Hamburger, well, maybe a guy gets psyched up enough that they do brilliantly for a game or two (instead of getting pysched up and just melting down). I would hate the thought of a Burde or Reed or Jones coming up and trying to impress everyone and blowing out their arm, but that's the opportunity that exists right now in the Twins organization.

 

And service time and 40-man roster space be damned. Berrios is going to be lights out and a longtime starter, or not...so don't worry about the 40-man. He will get his shot sooner rather than later. You still have the service time option open for three seasons if they guy isn't all that great.

 

You do have dead weight on the 40-man. Ohhhhhh, you don't want to add anyone before their time because you do have quite a few considerations coming up this November. Well, then we get stuck with Hamburger or WIlkin Ramirez of Jamie Beresford (or any number of other AAAA guys). We can still reward one or two come September if the twins are in the dregs, but we can also free up space by cutting loose anyone and everyone that WON'T be here in 2016 - Duensing, Fien, Robinson, Nunez for example. I would reward guys at the expense of those old soldiers. But I also would grab someone, maybe one of the Johnsons, and let them have a shot. Shibuya maybe. Look for those rough diamonds that are hungry in your own organization and wanting to listen to the coaches and impress the front office and fans.

 

We will see some horrible moments (O'Rourke, but I'm not putting him on any shorter of a leash than Stauffer or Boyer) or Achter (throwing some heat). 

[savvyspy]

 

Aside from May's botched BP experience, I think Pressly was by far the 2nd best option in the pen this year.

 

Edit: I feel confident enough after looking at the stats that I will strike this part from my statement.

How Pressly is the 2nd best bullpen option by far this year when he is sitting in Rochester getting crushed? And why are we wasting MAJOR LEAGUE roster spots for an entire year so have a minor league replacement level pitcher the following year? I just really question this practice when your bullpen is already as bad as this one is.

 

And this is nothing against Pressly and Graham at all. What they are asked to accomplish having no business being in the major leagues is amazing. It has to be crushing for Graham to give up a grand slam to ARod in a close game. 

 

Teams should really only be using the Rule 5 on the rare occasion. The Twins seems to be using every year to stash a barely above average bullpen arm that can't contribute beyond mop up duty and them getting really nothing more from them after that.

 

I think common sense would tell you if a player doesn't have a defined role on your team he shouldn't be on your roster period. Just offer him back or swing a trade if you are convinced he's going to be a player in later years. But there isn't really anyone that is looking to either Graham or Pressly to be the building blocks of the future. So what's the point?  

[GoGonzoJournal]

Couldn't agree more, John. Molitor has shown that he is incapable of not only making the right bullpen moves, but putting together a lineup. He allowed the slumping Brian Dozier bat leadoff for weeks while the hot Aaron Hicks was buried.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How Pressly is the 2nd best bullpen option by far this year when he is sitting in Rochester getting crushed? And why are we wasting MAJOR LEAGUE roster spots for an entire year so have a minor league replacement level pitcher the following year? I just really question this practice when your bullpen is already as bad as this one is.

 

And this is nothing against Pressly and Graham at all. What they are asked to accomplish having no business being in the major leagues is amazing. It has to be crushing for Graham to give up a grand slam to ARod in a close game.

 

Teams should really only be using the Rule 5 on the rare occasion. The Twins seems to be using every year to stash a barely above average bullpen arm that can't contribute beyond mop up duty and them getting really nothing more from them after that.

 

I think common sense would tell you if a player doesn't have a defined role on your team he shouldn't be on your roster period. Just offer him back or swing a trade if you are convinced he's going to be a player in later years. But there isn't really anyone that is looking to either Graham or Pressly to be the building blocks of the future. So what's the point?

Rule 5 is fine. Teams regularly carry a Brian Bass, Swarzak, Robinson, Nunez type anyway.

 

Graham isn't the problem, it is the rest of the pen and its mismanagement.